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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 30, 2013 14:30:56 GMT -5
Considering that we have a more than suitable replacement at a fraction of the cost would not make it a wise pursuit. As much as I love Ellsbury, I honestly do, JBJ will be handed the keys to CF next year.
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Post by gatortough on Jun 30, 2013 14:36:01 GMT -5
I don't think those are mutually exclusive events
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Jun 30, 2013 15:30:31 GMT -5
Why hasn't that juicer gotten drilled yet?
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Post by marrcus on Jun 30, 2013 15:34:08 GMT -5
Is it prudent to pitch to the game's hottest hitter in the 9th with a one run lead?
That was the third really stupid decision of the weekend.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Jun 30, 2013 15:46:49 GMT -5
LOLOLOL Toronto.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 30, 2013 15:48:02 GMT -5
Mother's Day Miracle-style. Very nice.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 30, 2013 15:51:27 GMT -5
See you later Toronto, go dancing on the plane ride home.
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Post by marrcus on Jun 30, 2013 15:54:39 GMT -5
Toronto's mistakes will cool off any hot club. Brandon Snyder is likely the happiest guy in town right now. Thankful they never had to go to ........in the tenth.
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Post by bjb406 on Jun 30, 2013 16:20:09 GMT -5
I really don't want to lose Jacoby. As much sense as it makes from a business standpoint, he is still one of the best center fielders in the league. While I'm sure Bradley can handle the job, he is still a downgrade.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Jun 30, 2013 16:40:38 GMT -5
I don't think anyone wants to lose Jacoby, but I can't envision a situation where the Sox can resign him for a reasonable contract. Especially if he continues to have a monster season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 30, 2013 16:40:55 GMT -5
I really don't want to lose Jacoby. As much sense as it makes from a business standpoint, he is still one of the best center fielders in the league. While I'm sure Bradley can handle the job, he is still a downgrade. Going forward? I don't think so. Ellsbury's ticket is speed and decent contact. Bradley will have a similar avg, much better OBP, and a peak that will probably approach Ellsbury's but last longer. He also has a much better arm and is second to none with his reads in center. I don't think it's much of a contest over, say, the next 5 years.
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Post by semperfisox on Jun 30, 2013 17:09:19 GMT -5
I'll take 3 of 4.
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Post by jmei on Jun 30, 2013 17:44:37 GMT -5
I really don't want to lose Jacoby. As much sense as it makes from a business standpoint, he is still one of the best center fielders in the league. While I'm sure Bradley can handle the job, he is still a downgrade. Going forward? I don't think so. Ellsbury's ticket is speed and decent contact. Bradley will have a similar avg, much better OBP, and a peak that will probably approach Ellsbury's but last longer. He also has a much better arm and is second to none with his reads in center. I don't think it's much of a contest over, say, the next 5 years. I generally agree with the above, but have just one nit-pick. Bradley is unlikely to hit for a similar average as Ellsbury, who is a career .297 hitter and only strikes out 12.4% of the time. As evidenced by his first stint in the majors, Bradley's hit tool is unlikely to match Ellsbury's, especially considering Bradley's struggles with fastballs on the inner half of the plate and his elevated strikeout rate in the minors (16.2% career for Bradley in the minors; Ellsbury only struck out 10.8% of the time in the minors). Moreover, while I think Bradley is going to have an excellent major league career, I don't think it's a slam dunk that he performs better than Ellsbury over the next few years. Bradley is better defensively, but Ellsbury provides much more value on the bases, so I consider that a wash at best. While Bradley has far superior plate discipline, I think Ellsbury's better contact tool means they probably end up with a similar offensive profile in the near future. That said, if Bradley can provide 90% of Ellsbury for the major league minimum, I would definitely hesitate to sign Jacoby to an expensive, long-term contract. I think there are better areas to invest that money (think 1B or the corner outfield, where the Red Sox don't have obvious starting-caliber replacements in the minors) and Jacoby's skillset won't age well.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 1, 2013 1:40:22 GMT -5
I don't think we can read much into Bradley's poor results at the beginning of the season. He was over his head at that point, facing pitching he had never seen before. On the other hand, he does have to prove he can hit that pitching, and he hasn't done that yet.
At this point we can't be sure he is Ellbury's replacement. I'm not ready to assume the Sox won't try fairly hard to resign Ellsbury.
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Post by hammerhead on Jul 1, 2013 8:51:41 GMT -5
You also have to consider the fairly high draft pick the sox will get for Ellsbury. I'm not saying that is worth letting him go, but if he won't sign for a reasonable amount and we have 90% of ells in jbj for the minimum and get a draft pick.
The writing is on the wall. See if ells will take a "hometown discount" if not see yah
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 1, 2013 10:57:44 GMT -5
Many seem to assume that Ellsbury is going to command offers the Red Sox can't, or won't match. He is not a superstar. I do not think he is going to be offered $20M a year by anyone, especially when they have to give up that draft choice. He had one great season, but is not showing any sign of repeating that. He is a very good player, but not someone any team will be build around. He actually is worth more to the Sox than he would be to most other teams.
Having said that, the draft choice is not reasonable compensation for Ellsbury. I would rather have him than take a chance with a draft choice.
I don't know where the idea that Bradley is almost as good as Ellsbury comes from. He has not shown that, yet. He is an exciting prospect, but a prospect is what he is right now. And he isn't as exciting as Ellsbury was when he was at the same stage of his career.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 1, 2013 11:40:11 GMT -5
I don't know where the idea that Bradley is almost as good as Ellsbury [projected over the next X years] comes from. He has not shown that, yet. He is an exciting prospect, but a prospect is what he is right now. And he isn't as exciting as Ellsbury was when he was at the same stage of his career. I think most people realize that JBJ is a prospect.......? so I don't know where you're going with that one. As far as "the same stage" of their respective careers: Ellsbury in his 2nd full year out of college, as an older 23-year-old, was piddling along at Pawtucket with a nice OBP-heavy 298/360/380/740 line, though his 33-6 SB-CS was "exciting". JBJ in his 2nd full year after college has already had a cup of coffee in the bigs and as a young 23-year-old at Pawtucket is sporting a 304/395/509/904 slash.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 1, 2013 13:08:02 GMT -5
Excellent series win. I was disappointed with losing 3/4 to Baltimore and Detroit. Nice to win a four game series against a team that was pretty hot coming to Boston. Also, did it without our two best starters this year in Buchholz and Lackey. We did miss R.A. Dickey. But, have hit him well in the past. Pound the Padres and finish strong headed into the all-star break.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 1, 2013 13:55:47 GMT -5
Many seem to assume that Ellsbury is going to command offers the Red Sox can't, or won't match. He is not a superstar. I do not think he is going to be offered $20M a year by anyone, especially when they have to give up that draft choice. He had one great season, but is not showing any sign of repeating that. He is a very good player, but not someone any team will be build around. He actually is worth more to the Sox than he would be to most other teams. I mean, BJ Upton wasn't a superstar either. That doesn't really matter. The issue is that when 30 teams can sign a guy, one of them is going to overpay and probably by a lot. Especially when you're talking about the kind of player who isn't a superstar, but kinda looks like one if you squint hard enough.
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Post by hammerhead on Jul 1, 2013 14:01:56 GMT -5
Not to mention that at least one of the teams lusting after Ells is the Met's who are looking to make a splash, need outfield help desperately, need a leadoff hitter, have 40million coming off the books and have a history of some pretty retarded signings.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Mets offered ells 5 yr @ 18mil per .... that comes from listening to the lunatics daily on WFAN
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2013 14:14:27 GMT -5
I've been hearing for years about the Mets wanting to make a splash, but for the last couple years it's really been Alderson slowly building that organization up. That said, they will have money to spend, their center field production has been brutal, and there's a good chance they'll have a protected first rounder.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 1, 2013 14:53:52 GMT -5
What would you rather have, Jacoby Ellsbury at $18m a year, or Jackie Bradley plus $17.5m dollars to make up the difference between Bradley and Ellsbury elsewhere? The decision to (not) re-sign Ellsbury has a lot more to do with the MLB pay scale than it does the actual players involved.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 1, 2013 14:56:52 GMT -5
Many seem to assume that Ellsbury is going to command offers the Red Sox can't, or won't match. He is not a superstar. I do not think he is going to be offered $20M a year by anyone, especially when they have to give up that draft choice. He had one great season, but is not showing any sign of repeating that. He is a very good player, but not someone any team will be build around. He actually is worth more to the Sox than he would be to most other teams. I mean, BJ Upton wasn't a superstar either. That doesn't really matter. The issue is that when 30 teams can sign a guy, one of them is going to overpay and probably by a lot. Especially when you're talking about the kind of player who isn't a superstar, but kinda looks like one if you squint hard enough. Agree with this. Also it's market availability. There could be as many as 8-10 teams looking for a CF/LF, including the Yankees. And Ells' agent is Scott Boras. That said, if they could get Ells on a slight overpay for 4 years I'd be all over that considering how injury-proned Victorino has been so, and what else we have in the minors for outfielders right now.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 1, 2013 15:09:42 GMT -5
That said, if they could get Ells on a slight overpay for 4 years I'd be all over that considering how injury-proned Victorino has been so, and what else we have in the minors for outfielders right now. Sure, but guys never actually sign these contracts.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 1, 2013 17:05:34 GMT -5
What would you rather have, Jacoby Ellsbury at $18m a year, or Jackie Bradley plus $17.5m dollars to make up the difference between Bradley and Ellsbury elsewhere? The decision to (not) re-sign Ellsbury has a lot more to do with the MLB pay scale than it does the actual players involved. You mean a dollars for dollars trade like Ellsbury/Salty for JBJ/Mauer. Gimme JBJ and Mauer(I know a pipe-dream) 7 days a week.
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