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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 21, 2021 1:18:14 GMT -5
James Paxton has barely pitched the past two years and had TJ surgery last April, but for those reasons he should be available for cheap. He can't be the primary acquisition and it'd be cost dependent obviously, but he'd be an interesting flyer assuming there's another acquisition to more adequately replace Erod. Add Paxton to the Houck and Whitlock group who can possibly start, or could be quality multi-inning relievers. Ideally, add a club option for 2023 in case he comes back strong this year.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 19, 2021 0:11:41 GMT -5
You say that as if you're being conservative, but I would easily take the under on his being a 2 WAR starter. It certainly isn't remotely close to his floor, which is more like replacement level. His steamer projection is 0.9 WAR in 91 games. He had a 106 wRC+ in 2021 but only a .298 wOBA and his career wOBA is under .300 with no real positive trend. He's a subpar offensive player, and while I do like his defense, it's probably not enough to make him an average starter. What any of us consider a floor is a complete matter of opinion, but given his 3.5-4 fWAR pace last year and minimal samples over the previous two years, I consider 2.0 fWAR to be a reasonable realistic floor. I'm not sure how .296, .315, .332 isn't a positive wOBA trend, please explain?As noted he had a 106 wRC+ last season so he was above average offensively. But if we regress him substantially to 91 wRC (where steamer has him listed) and then regress his UZR/150 from 7.8 (his career UZR/150 at 2B is 7.4) to 5.0 then we get Whit Merrifield with 3.2 fWAR or down to 2.0 UZR/150 and you get Tommy Edman at 2.3 fWAR. Both are better base runners, but they're the closest comps to a significantly regressed Arroyo (and Arroyo is likely the best defender at 2b of the 3) I understand the reluctance on Arroyo due to his being snake-bit last year and having small samples sizes, but there's no reason to question his defense being at least above average and his offense being passable. At second base that gives you a solid starter in the 2 WAR range. Btw, steamer doesn't know where he will play, which leads to some distorted projections. Perhaps ZiPS will be better (it's out soon). Tiny samples here. Plate appearances: 57, 54, 181. Games: 16, 15, 57 xwOBA: .288, .300, .298 How will Arroyo hold up playing every day, and having pitchers get more of a look at him? Will he make the inevitable adjustments that will be required for him to be an average every day starter? He had a .325 BABIP last year, and Steamer's projection of .295 for next year feels very fair. I know floor/ceiling talk is subjective, but I feel pretty strongly that his "floor" at this point is definitely not an average or better every day starter. To add, if we use the same pattern and add an additional year, his walk rate has gone from 10.2%, 8.8%, 7.4%, 4.4%, but again, sample sizes.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 18, 2021 22:59:46 GMT -5
Nick Folk is not to be trifled with. He's underappreciated right now, probably because the Pats have been spoiled with great kicking for so long. Folk competes for his job each camp, but I feel a lot better about him than the replacement level kicker he's treated like.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 16, 2021 21:48:38 GMT -5
The idea of being the top bidder for Baez in order to attempt to squeeze Xander in future negotiations sounds like pairing a mistake with an even bigger mistake.
Xander isn't going to lower his contract demands if a Baez/Story/Correa/Seager is on the team, it doesn't influence his side. I also don't see the Red Sox going over their set value for Xander, whether they have a replacement ready or not they likely won't overextend. Signing an eventual replacement a year early to play out of position seems like a waste of resources, unless the team thinks it's a good deal even if the acquisition plays 2B.
I know the left side of the infield defense isn't ideal, but there are many ways to build a winner. Devers and Xander are the least of the Red Sox worries for 2022, shifting them to new positions now in order to buy expensive free agents to displace them is so unappealing. They aren't just their defense, they bring tremendous value with their offense in those positional slots at their current salaries. A lot of people assume Xander would be a more valuable player at 2B or even LF, and I don't understand the confidence in that assumption. The best Red Sox team for 2022 is built with Xander at SS and Devers at 3B (unless there are some unpredictable Red Sox friendly blockbuster trades available, or if a FA SS receives much less than their expected value).
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 15, 2021 22:42:01 GMT -5
Usually I’d agree with people concerned with giving five years to a free agent pitcher, but the years aren’t that scary at Erod’s age and AAV. There’s some risk in case of injury, but I would’ve been very happy if the Red Sox brought him back at that contract. I have a hard time seeing better options on the free agent market at their projected price tags, so hopefully Bloom can find value in a trade.
Also, the crowd that constantly complained about Erod during his time here will very likely complain even more about whoever inevitably replaces him.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 31, 2021 17:41:26 GMT -5
They stepped up at the end of the 1st half twice and earlier made them punt from the endzone after 3 and out at the 5. They have been stepping up a bit. It's all about pressure, I hope they have some wrinkles to throw at them late. I think the Chargers have been getting lucky so far. That 3rd down is a perfect summation of the defense this season. They’re really solid and keep the team in it, but they don’t step up when they really need to make a play. This aged well.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 29, 2021 18:08:51 GMT -5
I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. If this free agent market provides better value for FA bats than FA pitchers it'd theoretically make sense to trade Renfroe for a pitcher and buy a bat. It's not that simple, but it's entirely possible a FA bat + player(s) acquired for Renfroe could be superior value to Renfroe + a FA pitcher. They shouldn't look to deal him, but if they're offered fair or better value for him and can replace or upgrade his spot at value they certainly shouldn't close the door at this point.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 27, 2021 18:12:02 GMT -5
I think a Devers extension (possibly announced after the season starts) + re-signing Rodriguez (or another starter at that tier) + one other ~$16-22 million/year free agent is what I would expect, beyond small moves. Over or under on that? This is in line with what I'm expecting as well, but I think many here would be disappointed if that's the case. If Erod or a replacement gets $16-22m AAV and they sign a second FA at the same level, that's $210m to $222m committed before addressing the bullpen and filling out the bench. If the second big acquisition is a bat, it's very possible Renfroe or JD would be traded, which would make filling out the roster easier. If I'm guessing the market for FA starting pitching, I think Erod will be the best value in his tier and hope he's retained. Or, maybe Bloom decides he doesn't want to add a second significant contract. He could add a couple bats for quality depth (in the $4m-10m AAV range) to push/platoon with Arroyo/Dalbec/Renfroe for playing time, and add 2-3 arms in that contract tier as well - a "spread the wealth" approach. The money can add up quickly with that approach as well. I'm hoping he decides to retool the bullpen on the cheap and works some magic there.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 27, 2021 16:14:46 GMT -5
I've seen many posts about money coming off the books after next season. Yes, Price's money comes off the books. JD's will come off if he doesn't opt out this offseason, and Vazquez & Plawecki will come off the books as well. The other "free money" belongs to Xander, Eovaldi, and Kiké. Those three players provide surplus value, and they'll either be due raises or the Red Sox will have to replace their production, and good luck doing it at a lower cost. Devers will be a year away from free agency, and other players will get raises through arbitration. The team will have a lot of flexibility, but outside of Price's $16m it's not like most of the money coming off is dead weight, quite the opposite. If they actually lose all those guys, they'll need to replace this season's ace, SS, CF, DH, and catching tandem (plus this year's FA's this offseason) with that money.
As for this offseason, I admittedly don't follow the payroll closely, but if JD opts in and the other team options are declined as expected, I think they have ~$178m committed against the CBT if the arbitration estimates are accurate (including dead money, 40 man, medical/benefits, etc.). My math may be off, and they can make moves to clear some of that salary, but I think it's close to that figure right now. That's without Erod, Schwarber, and other pieces, along with the current depth issues that caused problems this postseason. Who knows what the next CBA looks like, and maybe JD opts out or gets dealt (or other salaries are moved), but even if the Red Sox go over the tax and increase their payroll (as they should) I think some of you are overestimating how much they have to spend on next year's team at this point.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 25, 2021 15:45:48 GMT -5
I expect Correa will command significantly more total money this offseason than Xander will command after he opts out next year. If that's not the case and they'll receive similar years/money I could see making the switch.
Correa has been clear he wants to maximize his next contract, while Xander has already taken one team friendly extension and by all accounts still wants to be here. Xander has a better track record of durability, but Correa is younger and has a clear defensive advantage over Xander. Also, Correa will be hitting FA first on the heels of a new CBA, while Xander will hit the year after multiple big market teams have already filled their shortstop position the prior offseason. Xander will always have a market, but it should be a bit softer after teams shell out big bucks this winter on shortstops.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 23, 2021 14:52:09 GMT -5
I wonder how much Michael Conforto will get after his down year. He seems like a potential buy low opportunity that could help replace Schwarber's bat if he leaves.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 22, 2021 13:54:36 GMT -5
Offer him the Jon Lester extension. 4/70, problem solved! I know this was a joke, but I think people forget where Lester was at when he was offered that deal. From 2011-2013 Lester had a 4.03 ERA/3.84 FIP/3.78 xFIP with 7.74 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. From 2018-2021 Erod had a 4.11 ERA/3.63 FIP/3.83 xFIP with 9.98 K/9 and 3.06 BB/9. Of course, Lester shoved in the 2013 postseason and then put together a career year after the offer was made, which dramatically altered his stock. Before that, he appeared to be regressing from his 2008-2010 levels. Erod is slightly younger than Lester was at the time, and a pending FA while Lester had a year of control. Lester was more durable with a great playoff resume, they aren't perfect comparisons, but other than the flukey lost Covid season Erod has been durable the last two seasons he's pitched, and you could argue he has less mileage on his arm. I'm not sure what my point is here, other than how people look back on Lester's offer as a huge insult, but 7 years later many people here don't even want to offer that much to Erod right now (I think it'll take more fwiw).
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 21, 2021 18:59:00 GMT -5
As long as ownership always spends to the tax, and exceeds it when practical, I prefer they'd spend more evenly than a stars and scrubs approach would call for. Paying big money in terms of AAV for shorter term deals is different than guaranteeing a decade of pay at that rate. There are always exceptions, short term deals can bust and long term deals can prove bargains, but the ability to quickly reset and have flexibility to meaningfully change the roster year to year is so valuable to a big market team - as we've seen, the Red Sox can reload fast.
Roster building isn't as black and white as these conversations get, and circumstances dictate short term strategy. I really doubt the Red Sox have ruled out all long term contracts no matter what, now and forever, it's not that dramatic. Buying high on veterans doesn't seem like a sustainable roster building strategy, just like exclusively shopping in the bargain bin isn't the way to go for a big market team either. The goal should be to combine their resources with consistently finding good value acquisitions and staying away from big long term mistakes.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 20, 2021 18:35:14 GMT -5
Just one touchdown and an extra point and we've got the lead.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2021 21:29:04 GMT -5
Where would we be without Cashman hooking us up with Whitlock and Ottavino? And then he extends Boone just to keep giving us good times moving forward, what a guy.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2021 17:58:40 GMT -5
Is 2007 the only title run that fans didn't argue over who was responsible for the team? In 04 it was fans praising the Duquette guys, in 2013 Theo got his props, in 2018 it was Cherington for hoarding young talent and maintaining flexibility for DD to spend, now we're back to DD. I can't be the only one who doesn't care about what percentage of credit each guy gets, right? Hopefully when it's all said and done, we can look back and say Bloom put together the best run of them all, because that would have to be pretty great to top what has already happened.
If you're running baseball ops for a big market team and spend a lot of resources for years, you better have positive value players left over from your tenure.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2021 17:41:00 GMT -5
I understand the criticism for punting in OT, but not the criticism for running the clock out in the first half with 24 seconds left on their own 25.They had 1:30 left. I think I remember Bill taking two timeouts before the two minute warning when the Cowboys were driving specifically to save time for a final drive before half. Then, the Cowboys didn't score and lost the ball. Then, Bill seemingly changed his mind, content to just get the ball after half with the lead. It wasn't nearly as bad as the OT decision, but I still don't like it and it fits a recent pattern of overly conservative in-game decision making. It felt like he didn't want to risk losing "momentum" after a positive stop on defense, but when you're going up against an elite offense and it's only half a four point lead is far from safe. Taking away a possession puts more pressure on the offense, not less. To that point in the game, the Pats had only 14(!!!!) offensive snaps. The field position clearly wasn't on their side, but it's 2021, and if you're more afraid of a turnover than picking up yards for a FG attempt you've got an inadequate offense or you're too conservative of a coach. If they were down 14 points there's no doubt they'd at least try a drive there. I don't like going into safe mode in that particular game with a half still to be played. He didn't have to go all out and risk a turnover or a quick three and out, just something more than a complete give up.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2021 12:00:30 GMT -5
After competing with the Bucs and Cowboys to the very end I am optimistic this team is heading in the right direction. Don't forget that under BB the Pats have a history of getting better as the season goes on. And given the roster turnover I would expect that to be an even bigger factor than normal. They have 11 games left and could very well go on a run given what I have seen. They have had some very up and very down moments and I am confident that BB hasn't given up coaching the heck out of those down moments. Mac Jones has been really really good so far and I hope Josh starts to open things up more. The running game looks like it is improving so that should help open things up. The last two seasons the Patriots actually got worse as the year went on. In 2019 they fell off a cliff after their undefeated start, going 2-4 in their final six games including the playoff loss (4-5 in their final nine). Last year they actually looked decent to start the year (2-2, but the losses were a narrow loss to Seattle and a competitive game with KC until the end) before falling off a cliff. I give last year a pass with the COVID impact, but the team did briefly start playing better football again in the middle part of the year before losing 3 of the final 4 with the only win occurring against the Jets in the finale. I don't think we can bank on a big improvement just because 01-18 teams generally did, but with the amount of new players it's at least something we can hope for. Most of their losses have occurred against NFC teams so that's helpful for tiebreakers, but this team is still in a terrible spot. Their record dating back to the final six games of the Tom Brady era is 11-17.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2021 15:34:59 GMT -5
Umm they forced a punt, gave up one TD and three FG tries, with one missing. If we're being honest, forcing them to take a long FG was rather logical. You seem to be mixing up halfs. The last four drives before OT the Cowboys went 80 yards, 66 yards, 50 yards, and 55 yards (not including the final 80 yard game winning TD drive). The punt gave the Cowboys the ball at the 20, picking up 34 yards of field position. Bill in his postgame comments suggested Zuerlein's big leg contributed to the decision to punt. Bill was banking on the Cowboys having their worst drive since the punt on their first possession of the second half, or the kicker to miss again (despite saying he had a big leg, which is the reason he didn't want to risk field position in the first place), because even their second worst drive of the second half went 50 yards, which would've put the Cowboys in range of a likely game winning field goal. Bill was counting on the Patriots defense putting together one of their best three series of the entire game (given the turnovers happened when they were already in FG range) at at time when they were gassed and had literally kept them out of field goal range only twice: the drive to open the game, and their first drive after half. I'm being honest here, and I think it's far from logical, both analytically and based on the actual game results we'd seen from that point. The Pats chances to convert on 4th were probably less than 50%, but the gain in field position didn't offset the likelihood of the Cowboys scoring on their next possession. They could've lost either way, but I'd feel better about being aggressive and simply not making the play than playing it out and waiting for the inevitable.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2021 15:02:34 GMT -5
If the Red Sox can sign Schwarber at a number they like I don't see JD being a problem. Even if they don't want to carry both on the roster for an entire year, they wouldn't have to eat much money to move JD at this point.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2021 14:58:35 GMT -5
Mac looks very promising, but the rest of the team looks pretty mediocre. The offensive line has been incredibly disappointing, and other units such as the linebackers, receivers, tight ends, running backs and secondary have performed below expectations to one degree or another. They really miss James White, who would have thrived in this offense. I would generally be fine with how this season has played out so far but for the fact that they went on a record-breaking free agent spending spree over the offseason on guys who are only going to get worse from here. They owe a ton of dead money to guys like Agholor, Henry and Smith going forward, which is not great as they enter into the decline phase of their career. You needed to get surplus value on the front end of those contacts, and the only guy who has outperformed his FA salary thus far is Judon. I had the same thought after the game. Last year was easy to swallow because they were simply talent deficient but played hard, and it was easy to look forward to all the cap space and flexibility they'd have in the offseason. For better or worse, the core of this team is now locked in, these are the guys Bill invested in. Smith is getting top of the market TE money but has been a role player to this point. Agholor always felt like an overpay and a weird fit, but there was hope his breakout last year would translate. Mills has versatility but everyone knew he'd get exposed as a full time outside corner. Bill's spending spree felt like a GM who knew his roster was in trouble and overextended for players hoping for a quick turnaround. Now he's going to have to really nail the draft, trades, and free agent bargains to get their roster to where it needs to be moving forward (if he doesn't resign).
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2021 14:36:36 GMT -5
We can't only focus on the mistakes the Patriots made and say "well if they clean that up they'll be fine", we also have to apply the same logic to the opposing team. Dak may have scored the play before he was stripped, he threw a pick in the end zone, and Zuerlein missed a FG, so they could've easily scored 10-17 more points too. Does anyone seriously think the Pats outplayed Dallas yesterday? The Pats made some great clutch plays to stay competitive, but Dallas drove at will all day. The Pats had TD drives of one play, three plays and four plays, (plus the great 13 play TD drive). Dallas consistently moved the ball all day, Cowboys fans could say the defense was pretty solid and would've looked a lot better without one busted coverage play and if the offense didn't put them in terrible position on the opening drive. I don't think Dallas or Tampa played anything approaching their best game against the Pats, in the same way the Pats didn't play their best in a win against Houston. While we're counting losses that could have been wins, they could've easily lost the Texans game too. The Jets game is the only game they've controlled all year, despite playing four of six at home.
The only times the Patriots defense stopped the Cowboys in 11 possessions were the turnover on downs in the first drive, two turnovers, and one punt. The two turnovers were in the end zone. The Cowboys ran 35 more plays than the Patriots did. Bill voluntarily decided to surrender one possession before half, despite calling timeouts with the clear intent of getting the possession in the first place. He decided the Patriots had a better chance of stopping the Cowboys from a field goal than picking up a 4th and 3, which may have been defensible if they hadn't marched up and down the field all day and if you couldn't see the defense had nothing left. He rejected everything we saw for 60 minutes and wishcasted a defensive stop, as if ~40 yards in field position would swing the OT. After the first drive, the Patriots kept the Cowboys out of field goal range 10% of the time, so yeah, I'd go for it on 4th down (not to mention call a different second down play).
TLDR: It's really hard to win in the 2021 NFL if you don't trust your offense. The only path to succeeding with that situation is possessing a truly elite defense. The Patriots defense is far from elite right now.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 17, 2021 22:18:41 GMT -5
Belichick is the primary culprit for that loss. Played total coward ball It's nothing new either, he's turned into one of those coaches we used to mock for playing not to lose. This team isn't good enough to play ultra conservative and beat teams like Dallas or Tampa. They also make a ton of unforced errors, it's not like they have a team that doesn't turn the ball over and can afford to play it safe and wait for the other team to screw up…they're the team that screws up right now. Dallas made a ton of mistakes and had so many penalties, and they still couldn't capitalize enough. Bill is coaching like it's 2003 and his team has a better roster than the opposition.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 17, 2021 20:21:01 GMT -5
If the Yankees WERE to sign a Correa, I don’t see how they would be able to resign Judge after next season given what they are already paying Cole and Stanton. They definitely could if they decide to go over the luxury tax, but current ownership has not shown a willingness to do so. P.S. I like Seager more than Correa. They could be like the Dodgers, see avoidance of the luxury tax as a short-term market inefficiency given a cost-benefit analysis of going over for 2 years and pump their payroll up to $260M. Totally different situations, the Dodgers only have Mookie locked in long term for big money, they have a ton of flexibility. The Yankees already have Cole, Stanton, LeMahieu, and Hicks locked in for at least the next four years. Add Correa and a Judge extension and you'd be looking at ~150m AAV for just those six players. We don't know what the next CBA will look like, so maybe the dynamic changes, but investing that much money in less than 25% of your roster seems like a really dumb long term strategy and it'd be very hard to turn around after a couple years and dip back under the tax.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 15, 2021 13:28:30 GMT -5
Eovaldi's deal looked like an overpay when he was below replacement level and hurt in year one of the deal. Barnes looks bad now, but he was an All Star as recently as three months ago, and his extension hasn't even started yet. With the volatility of relievers, it might be premature to write him off already, even if the timing of the extension admittedly looks terrible. If we're still waiting out Sale's extension before making a judgment, in year two of his deal when he's barely pitched, it seems like we should give Barnes at least a season to rebound, right?
Also, like Incandenza said, these deals can't just be judged on their own without considering the overall direction of the team and the financial flexibility they project to have over the life of these deals.
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