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Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 11, 2024 19:52:49 GMT -5
So I'm assuming they're drafting Jayden Daniels. They don't know if he'll even be on the board at #3.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 12, 2024 1:37:06 GMT -5
Get a QB. Forget MHJ. Chiefs proved QB > elite roster with decent QB. In 2021 this energy would've said "forget Ja'Marr Chase, you need to draft Zach Wilson/Trey Lance/Justin Fields/Mac Jones instead because drafting generational QB's is the easiest path to a title". You evaluate each prospect and draft class, and then pick players accordingly rather than locking into fantasy dreams of finding a QB that can give you a Patrick Mahomes effect. That's not to say they should be gun-shy selecting a QB they believe in, but they can't force it if it's not there.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 6, 2024 21:49:41 GMT -5
Didn't he also say Johnson was a lock for Washington? I just don't think this makes much sense. Bill interviewed twice and all other reports suggest the people within the FO were anxious about a Bill hiring. The only possibility I can think of is if the job was offered with the contingency he'd have absolutely zero say in personnel or any staff currently within the organization. Even still, that doesn't align with what Bill said before his firing that he's willing to do whatever the team feels was best for the organization. He wants that record. I would not hire him at 73 after a year removed from the game. Bill has to understand there's a high probability he never coaches again or reaches that record. Unless the KC thing is real, which would blow my mind that they would rip out the system that has been so successful for them. You didn't mention Rich McKay but his power within the organization is almost certainly a primary reason Bill would've passed on that job. Why would McKay or his people advocate for Bill at the expense of their own job security and power? Maybe Bill was open to surrendering some power but wanted the Falcons to reshape their FO with people he would respect and advocate for rather than reporting to McKay, who knows the specific details. Is it really unfair to look at the Falcons and McKay over the past two decades and say "I think you guys need to change more than the HC to make this work?" Bill has repeatedly talked about the importance of ownership sharing your vision and plan, it's hard to succeed if different interests pull in different directions. Bill likely pitched his plan for the next 3-5 years of Falcons football, but they only wanted him under their own plan. If Bill didn't believe in or respect their plan it wouldn't make sense to accept the assignment. Any coach would want the all time wins record, but it's better to wait for a solid opportunity that may never come than to desperately enter a toxic situation with a high probability of failure which would further taint his legacy.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 3, 2024 14:45:08 GMT -5
The logic of spending up to the luxury tax just because makes no sense Do you just spend up to the amount of your paycheck every month no matter what even if you are saving for a house or vacation? The Redsox like every other team are probably saving for better teams spend on and refilling the coffers in the meantime We might get the argument “well it’s not my money so I’m being care what they spend” …. Well yeah it not your money so they don’t care what you think about their spending Luckily, we can complain about this ownership all we want, but they have enjoyed the most World Series wins this millennium then any other ownership group so far The first luxury tax threshold is not their entire paycheck, and they aren't living paycheck to paycheck.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 10, 2024 13:19:59 GMT -5
If Bill is back coaching this team, I don’t want to hear anything Tom Curran has to say about the team again. Even now, Curran is acting like he can't lose: if Bill is retained it'll be the Kraft's changing their minds, rather than him reporting the details of their intentions incorrectly (or with too much certainty), even though he spoke about it with absolute certainty for weeks. I actually think he's a quality reporter with good Pats sources, but in the past decade he's allowed personal relationships to influence his work. After forming a relationship with Alex Guerrero and the Brady family, his work started to have a noticeable bias on that topic. Now we're seeing the same thing in regards to Mayo. Last night, Curran and Phil Perry suggested Vrabel was unlikely to replace Bill if he's fired, with the sole reason being the Kraft's are "methodical" and there's been a long term plan to eventually turn it over to Mayo. Their evidence, according to Curran, is last offseason Kraft was "indicating that he felt that Mayo was the heir apparent", and claims there was a press release and letter to season ticket holders which "said Mayo would be the successor". I just re-read the season ticket holder letter and it had no references to Mayo, unless there were multiple letters and I missed it. The press release about Mayo indicated they wanted him long term, but nothing definitive about a succession plan. Kraft did later say "well, he's definitely a strong candidate to be the heir apparent, but we have some other good people in our system". Other statements included Kraft saying “there’s no ceiling on [Mayo’s] ability to be a head coach” and that he he hopes “he’s with us.” These are far less definitive statements than Curran and Perry are now suggesting them to be, and I'd imagine if Mayo isn't the next HC they'll report on it as if Kraft had a "change of heart" with that too, or worse he went back on his word, when that's not the case at all. Kraft's comments weren't much different from when Josh was extended after rejecting the Colts, and back then many in the media reported he was the heir apparent and Bill would "open up football ops to him", only to see him eventually leave for the Raiders. Curran and Perry carry Mayo's water but rarely acknowledge the fact they used to all do a TV show together. It's not surprising they don't want the coach who never gives them anything (Belichick) in exchange for a guy they used to partner with on the media side of things. You'd think they'd be able to objectively look at the situation and say "well the Patriots couldn't have expected Vrabel would be a free agent, and with his accolades as a Patriot player, his relationship with Robert, and his head coaching experience it'll be interesting if the Patriots prefer him or Mayo at this point". Nope, instead they misrepresent Kraft's year old comments (at a time when Kraft was also saying he believes in Mac) as if it's the gospel right now. I refuse to believe they are that naive, but confirmation bias may kick in when you've been rooting for your buddy to get the job, especially since it'd make their job (creating content and reporting information) easier too. While Vrabel would be easier for them to cover than Bill, I'd imagine Curran and Perry feel like they'd have a lot more access with Mayo and are clearly rooting for it.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 8, 2024 12:23:15 GMT -5
If Bill is back, there's a very good chance the Patriots would be the Hard Knocks team in training camp. That's reason enough for me to root for another year of Bill, I need that content. Bill on the hottest of hot seats coming off his worst year, strapped with a new rookie face of the franchise and in all likelihood many new impact FA additions, surrounded by HBO cameras every day.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 2, 2024 15:28:05 GMT -5
This kicker conversation is killing me. Gostkowski was picked in the same range and that pick certainly worked out. If Ryland was Gostkowski 2.0, I'd have no issue with taking a kicker that high, but you have to make the right evaluation (and develop the player to reach their full potential). It's the same thing with Cole Strange, if he was Logan Mankins 2.0 it'd be fine to take a guard in his spot. Investing heavily in positions with less value is okay if you nail the pick, but if the player doesn't perform you deserve criticism.
That's also true when you miss at QB (Mac) or WR (Harry) or any position, it's not like we're saying "oh sure Mac is a bust but that's okay because at least we went with the consensus top remaining player at a premium position of need".
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 8, 2023 17:54:35 GMT -5
Tyler O'Neill is being shopped aggressively and seems like a great fit now given salary and expected trade cost. I don't expect them to now land a rental OF like O'Neill, but it'd be a nice series of moves to flip Verdugo for pitching and then land O'Neill (RH bat) for position player prospects at a lower overall cost. I'd rather add a stopgap option for now given the presence of Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, and Anthony than lock in a mid-tier FA for more than two seasons. O'Neill has durability concerns but he should be motivated in a contract year plus he offers some legit upside if he stays healthy and approaches his 2021 form. Breslow reads the forum, confirmed!
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 6, 2023 19:39:18 GMT -5
Honestly if the Yankees get Yamamoto/Soto and the Jays get Ohtani how would people feel about the Sox blowing it up and trading Devers Sale Martin Jansen etc...? It would make absolutely zero sense at this time and isn't a worthy idea to discuss beyond ridiculing the fact it was even brought up in the first place.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 6, 2023 0:01:54 GMT -5
Tyler O'Neill is being shopped aggressively and seems like a great fit now given salary and expected trade cost. I don't expect them to now land a rental OF like O'Neill, but it'd be a nice series of moves to flip Verdugo for pitching and then land O'Neill (RH bat) for position player prospects at a lower overall cost. I'd rather add a stopgap option for now given the presence of Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, and Anthony than lock in a mid-tier FA for more than two seasons. O'Neill has durability concerns but he should be motivated in a contract year plus he offers some legit upside if he stays healthy and approaches his 2021 form.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 27, 2023 13:42:38 GMT -5
I don't think the GM will pick a QB. I think another GM would. Why not? Not arguing it'd be a lock because who knows where the pick ends up or how the board falls, but he literally drafted a first round QB the last time he was desperate for a QB. He clearly hates his entire current QB room, and he has urgency to win immediately following this season. He's never had this type of draft capital coupled with a quarterback need, but even with Tom here he allocated decent value picks (2nd-4th round) frequently on backups. I see nothing in his history or current actions that would indicate he's out on a top QB.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 11, 2023 13:43:12 GMT -5
Forget the underlying stats vs the actual production - are we really suggesting Adames wouldn't be a starting middle infielder on the Red Sox right now? He would've led the club in fWAR last year and been the second best position player to Devers by bWAR. As with any trade it's all about the acquisition cost, but suggesting the Red Sox straight up shouldn't want him on the team is absurd. If they hold both Mayer and Yorke it makes a lot of sense to acquire a one year stopgap rather than a multi-year option, and limiting themselves to a one year investment leaves a short pool of good options.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 6, 2023 16:02:51 GMT -5
If you end up with pick 5 it’s not all that difficult to move up to pick 2 as opposed to if they had pick 10. You’ll still have to give up a haul but if it gets you the franchise QB there is no cost that is too much I think it'd still require their next year's first in the package, and given the state of the franchise I'd be out at that price. Trade ups for elite QB prospects almost always carry bloated returns and a bunch of teams will likely offer multiple firsts and more. The downside risk is being the Panthers. Young might turn out to be a franchise QB eventually, but the price may still be too much. Imagine if the Panthers instead had DJ Moore (or flipped him for additional picks), Jalen Carter (the player picked in that slot), that extra 2nd, and this year's first - which may see a better QB prospect available than Young was at the time.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 3, 2023 15:47:48 GMT -5
"They are talentless, why didn't they trade their talent for good picks?"
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 23, 2023 15:33:10 GMT -5
The last time this job was open they also had people decline the chance to interview, but now we hear from Kennedy that Bloom was the only candidate, which undoubtedly wouldn't have been true if others accepted their interview requests. There's a difference between team interest and mutual interest, so while Bloom may have been the only mutual interest candidate they considered, there were other names they were interested in initially. Maybe Bloom still would've got the job, who knows. Having potential candidates decline to interview isn't abnormal, but now it makes me wonder how many requests were declined last time. Did they really only want to interview Bloom and a couple others who they must have known were questionable to even accept an interview? As is tradition, they'll likely overcompensate this time.
Whoever the next person is, whenever they inevitably land on the hot seat, they'd be a fool not to make win now moves at the cost of the future.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 15, 2023 14:01:53 GMT -5
Ben Cherington was from New Hampshire too, but I don't remember fans being particularly loyal to him for it.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 7, 2023 15:41:09 GMT -5
So talk to your kids/wife post-game if you're on the east coast. I think they'd rather do that anyway. Focus on your pre-game prep, talk to family afterwards. Unfortunately that's usually not an option. If your wife/GF/parents/friends work or go to school, then you don't get the chance. They can still communicate in the mornings from the US when it's evening in Japan, but they can do that on either coast. This isn't just a baseball issue, the difference in time-zone is an issue for the millions of people who either have families across the Pacific or who work with those across the Pacific. Unfortunately due to the timing of baseball games it's slightly tougher for east coast players. But wouldn't they be getting ready for their day and traveling to work and school during that 7-9am window you mentioned? I think the larger point is the time difference makes it difficult to talk regularly with loved ones, but I think the difference between the eastern and pacific time zones come down to whether you or your loved ones go to bed late or early. I know I'd hate to have those type of "catch up" talks every morning just after waking up. For family/friends in Tokyo, they may prefer to talk around 9-10pm their time, which I believe is 8-9am here, and would be too early to reach Ohtani on the west coast (5-6am) after a night game.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 30, 2023 15:43:56 GMT -5
I think foreverred9 made a very important point upthread on the previous page. I think it is difficult to isolate and capture how pitcher usage impacts the rate stats, or how the usage of other pitchers on the staff impacts the usage of a given pitcher, which in turn impacts his rate stats. I think as much as we can credit Kutter for plus stuff and being inarguably a huge plus to the pitching staff, we can acknowledge that his rate stats might not be quite so great if he were being handled in the same way that the starting pitchers immediately surrounding him on that xwOBA leaderboard were handled. How many times did Cole and Burnes record an out in the sixth inning? How about how many times did they make 90 or more pitches? Crawford was allowed to do that five times. Without exhaustively researching all starting pitcher usage in 2023, it is fair to say that Crawford had a shorter leash than many contemporaries. I think the implied argument built off of foreverred9’s post, is that if Cole and Burnes were used as five and dives who almost never threw more than 90 pitches, their rate stats might be even better: fewer third trips through the order, less mileage on the arm. Even despite the short leash, Crawford had a well documented velocity dip as the season wore on. Again, I like Crawford. This team falls off a cliff a month earlier than it did if he isn’t around. I don’t even think you’re wrong that he could be an entirely serviceable back end starting pitcher. The issue is that you can only commit to so many 5 or fewer IP starts per rotation turn as your plan A for getting through 162. It’s killed the staff two summers in a row. I don’t know if you saw my other post upthread, but there is a strong correlation between IP/GS above league average and landing in the postseason in each of the past two years. I would expect that trend to hold in prior years as well, even though that quickly gets us away from the era of 8-man bullpens and frequent openers. The workload matters, just like a hitter with a heavy platoon isn't compared to a guy who plays every day at the same rate, and that's why we aren't discussing him being one of the best pitchers this year like Cole. The disconnect is with your top 75 starter comment, or the posters who don't consider him a solid 5th starter. Martin Perez is currently 75th in IP, with 138IP in 20 starts with 14 bullpen appearances, (Ober is 76th with 137.2 in 25 starts). If Kutter throws exactly 5IP tonight (not guaranteed to be sure), he'd finish with 128.1 on the year in 23 starts with 8 bullpen appearances, temporarily good for 87th this year in IP. Since back in June when he got a permanent rotation spot he's thrown the 69th most innings (5IP tonight would temporarily slot him 63rd). Even with Kutter's struggles to consistently throw even 5IP per start, he was still in the top 75 just in terms of workload during his time as a full time starter. Obviously on a rate basis he pitched better than a lot of those guys, and I'm not suggesting you're even underrating Kutter as much as maybe overrating what the 75th best starting pitcher in baseball looked like this year. I agree it's not ideal to build a rotation with five guys like Kutter, but the problem is not with him as the 5th starter, it's the lack of a credible #1 or #2 starter right now. If the Red Sox go crazy and sign both Yamamoto and Nola, and Sale stays healthy all year and shoves, and Bello and Pivetta have career years which pushes Crawford to #6, great! But even then, Sale and Pivetta will be approaching free agency and after sinking all that money into two top tier FA's you'll need a cost controlled back end starter like Crawford or you'll be paying $8-14m for the next journeyman to fill the role, hoping he's more Wacha than Kluber/Richards.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 30, 2023 13:19:44 GMT -5
That's always been the #1 stat I look at when evaluating pitchers, percentage of starts with outs recorded in the sixth inning. I have a hard time understanding watching the last two summers and concluding that rate stats are everything, durability and length don’t warrant a mention. High frequency short starts were a significant factor in derailing both seasons. I like Kutter but I can’t be the only one who reads your post upthread and thinks there is no way he is actually a top 75 starting pitcherEntering today, Kutter is 95th in IP and 8th in xwOBA (for pitchers with 250+ BIP) sandwiched between Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole. Everyone would agree workload matters, so no one is trying to argue he's an ace like those guys. But in order to say "there's no way he's actually a top 75 starting pitcher" you would basically have to completely disregard rate stats and judge pitchers almost exclusively on their ability to pitch innings, production be damned. Maybe this season will be his peak, but if you don't think he's been a top 75 starter this year I'd definitely say you are selling him short or giving way too much credit to some other pitchers who have been much worse without much bigger workloads. On this forum, there are plenty of posters talking about spending real money on starters who aren't top of the rotation pitchers (Giolito and Flaherty for example) in order to displace Kutter, and given the rest of the roster that seems wasteful to me. Maybe this season is Kutter's peak, but that's not really what the discussion has been about, people have struggled to even appreciate this current season. One of the things Bloom struggled with was building a complimentary roster. If you carry guys like Pivetta, Houck, Winckowski, and Whitlock in the pen who are capable of pitching multiple innings any given appearance, wouldn't having guys like Sale and Kutter putting up great rate stats be an ideal fit? Personally, give me Kutter's season and workload over the season by Miles Mikolas.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 4, 2023 0:24:42 GMT -5
Nope he definitely gets the money if he opts out. The point of structuring the deal like this was to take advantage of some accounting rule that lets them spread some of his luxury tax hit on to the 2024 payroll even if he only plays in 2023. If you want to check the thread about his signing you should find reporting about this. It's not an Opt Out, it's a buy-out. I stand by my take on the contract language. The only way he gets the 6.7$ is if the Sox DECIDE they want to buy him out. He definitely doesnt "just get the money" if he wants to decline the player option and go take his great season to the open market. That would be just stupid for the Sox. It's a simple player option with a team buy out. No new accounting rule. the buy out is up to the Sox, not the player. Why on earth would the Sox take a luxury tax hit if Turner decides he doesn't want to play in Boston for 2024??? That's just silly.Because it would've charged $15m to this year's luxury tax in a year they were trying to sneak under, and the ~$7m hit (with the PA escalators possibly factoring in?) to next year's tax is meaningless since they should spend over the tax. The option gave Turner some security in case he was injured or cratered, and it helped the Sox lower the tax for this year. Rosenthal and others reported this at the time, if you subtract the buy out the Red Sox would've got Turner for $8.3m this year, that's obviously not the going rate for a guy like Turner.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 19, 2023 13:56:46 GMT -5
Even before today, Kutter had the 18th best xERA among pitchers with more than 250 BIP. He should absolutely be penciled into the rotation next year unless he's traded or injured.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 18, 2023 17:50:17 GMT -5
The branding between Apple TV and Apple TV+ is confusing, but Apple TV+ is a streaming service from Apple. Apple TV is a device that functions similar to a Roku/Firestick/Chromecast/etc, and is compatible with any TV with an HDMI port. You don't need the Apple TV to watch Apple TV+, just download the Apple TV+ app and sign up for an account. I don't have a Roku, but a google search said you can download Apple TV+.
FWIW Apple TV+ has some quality content and is about $7 a month with regular free trial opportunities if you just want to watch the odd Sox game. A new Apple TV is about $150, but it's easy to find cheap ones pre-owned online, and if you have a MacBook/iPod/iPhone/Apple Music it's worth it imo.
Totally get if people don't want to pay for new equipment or streaming services, or waste time figuring out how to do it. Personally I prefer the camera and sound on Apple TV+ to the NESN broadcast, ignoring the announcers on each side.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 12, 2023 15:49:36 GMT -5
I'll take long, sustainable, open ended windows of contention over specific 2-3 year definitive windows of contention with a likely cliff to follow. I don't see why we have to sign up either for perpetual 85 win mediocrity or a short term juggernaut that will have a certain cliff to follow. Aim higher, because if you fall short some years with that strategy at least you'll be in good shape for the next year - if you fall short on a short term window you're really screwed.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 8, 2023 14:50:30 GMT -5
The Boston sports media operates the way it does because Boston sports fans respond to it.
The dialogue and analysis is top tier on this site, but many posters here still regularly share awful takes they don't respect from Twitter/talk radio/etc just to mock it. Instead of ignoring a dumb take, they give the person a click and then post it here, which only increases that person's platform and is exactly what they want you to do. If people simply stopped clicking and tuning in, the type of coverage would shift to what the fan responds to. It's pretty clear people in sports media have figured out it's easier to get attention through outrage and disagreement. For example, if you're making a list of the best baseball players right, you will get a lot more attention and clicks by ranking Ohtani 6th than 1st. Too many people will still fall for the obvious bait.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 1, 2023 18:10:10 GMT -5
Entering this season, ZIPS projected Urias for 8.7 fWAR over his remaining team control (2023-2025). Given the trade cost and internal options for 2B both this and next year it's hard to find issue with this move. He's been bad this year and the ZIPS projection would look much different today, but these are the circumstances you need to "buy low".
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