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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 14, 2021 12:04:25 GMT -5
The only free agent we are talking about is Schwaber and he’s not some older guy who caught magic. I don’t think bringing him back would be the same as in 2018. Also, remember when we all thought the Eovaldi contract was a mistake after that 2018 season? Yet, here we are and the guy is by far the most important pitcher they got. This team wouldn’t have been in the playoff race without him let alone playing in the ALCS. The comment I was responding to asked "is it possible to bring everyone back". That would include Schwarber and JD, along with Erod and the other free agents, and it would mean no trades from the MLB roster. I just don't see Bloom running it back like that, there will undoubtedly be changes even if the majority of the roster remains the same. It obviously depends the individual team situation, but in general I think running back the same roster is generally suboptimal to tinkering with the idea of improving. For the record, I love watching Schwarber and would love to see him stay if the money works.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 14, 2021 11:23:17 GMT -5
Is it possible to bring everyone back including JD and Schwarber even for just 1 season? Their would a lot of depth and platoon options for Cora. I don't think it would be out of the question from a salary stand point. I think another year together could be special but that doesn't address the defensive issues. I would be happy with an upgraded pitching staff which with Sale for a whole season is already in the books. This is a good team especially when the bats come alive. It may be possible, but it's extremely unlikely. We have quotes from John Henry questioning whether it was wise for Dombrowski to basically bring the band back together after 2018. Bloom strikes me as a guy who won't get sentimental with players and will instead tirelessly chase good value acquisitions. For example, he won't deal Renfroe if he can't get value, but if he feels like he can win the trade I'd expect him to be gone (naming Renfroe as an example only). If Schwarber's market is more limited than expected I could see him coming back, but he won't overextend to win a bidding war, he'd probably pivot to a Chris Taylor type who seems like a Bloom guy with his positional versatility. If Schwarber returns and JD opts in, I'd expect JD to be shopped even if the Sox have to kick in some money to move him.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 12, 2021 18:20:32 GMT -5
Put yourself in the shoes of someone who has lost a loved one to alcoholism. Which is worse, somebody saying they are drunk or a constant barrage of pushing craft beers ? The problem isn't a drunk person, the problem is pushing alcoholism. Mike and Chris do it all the time and other posters follow suit yet you are silent. That's the double standard. I took a few years off from the forums, but I don’t recall too much craft beer discussion here since I’ve been back this year. (I can’t speak to Twitter since I’m not active there, but that’s also a different forum than these forums.) I also think there’s a meaningful difference between discussing enjoying an adult beverage responsibly and bragging about drinking to excess. It's the difference between discussing classic cars and bragging about driving 120mph down the highway. There's no benefit in telling people you got drunk or drove too fast, but discussing a beer or car you enjoyed may have value to another poster. Regardless, calling this forum a bastion of drunks is hyperbole to the extreme.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 9, 2021 21:56:46 GMT -5
I'm grateful for Verdugo's contributions for sure, despite all the singles Mookie has to this point. But to be clear, yeah, I'm pulling for Mookie to do well in the postseason as long as he's not facing the Red Sox. Maybe Mookie’s hands are weighed down by World Series rings. That could be it, his average has dropped .100 points since your post
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 9, 2021 21:24:06 GMT -5
I am sure a grateful Sox nation is happy to see Mookie hitting .600 this postseason. I'm grateful for Verdugo's contributions for sure, despite all the singles Mookie has to this point. But to be clear, yeah, I'm pulling for Mookie to do well in the postseason as long as he's not facing the Red Sox.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 6, 2021 19:20:08 GMT -5
PFF had Wilfork rated pretty low one year in his prime iirc and at that moment I realized that it’s an interesting tool when used in context, but certainly not the end all-be all. For instance I’m sure he’d get dinged for not generating pressure up the middle but that wasn’t really his responsibility, his role was to basically hold up neutral against double teams and eat space so the backers can either make a play on the RB or QB Right. For one example, only citing stats when you're targeted as the closest defender is not nearly enough to make an evaluation on overall pass coverage skills. The coverage on plays where they aren't targeted matters too, because if that defender didn't do his job he could've been targeted. Sometimes, you're covering a guy who isn't going to see a target regardless, each play is its own situation. You may be put in a spot to cover a guy you shouldn't be tasked with due to a bad supporting cast of teammates. Also, sometimes you end up as the closest defender but weren't tasked with that receiver and simply had the range to lend help. There are so many variables to pass coverage. PFF scores are interesting and helpful for us fans, but it's not even close to fWAR/bWAR for baseball, and those aren't infallible either.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 4, 2021 20:30:45 GMT -5
Eh, I respectfully disagree on that. They over achieved and then under achieved to balance out what was the expectation. I personally had them at about 93 wins before the season started. They held on to dear life for that WC 1 and were fortunate to have had Tampa Bay taking care of business. Red Sox were fortunate enough to escape 2 of the 3 games they swept against a Nationals team with nothing to play for. They limped in for months and showed no real hope for possible advancement. The team isn't overly young either, but they do have some young guys (Houck, Whitlock, maybe Dalbec) that showed they could be counted on in the future. Success based on March expectations? Sure. I just think they did enough in season to have expected more from them. I'm not even saying win the AL East, but they should have been able to push Tampa down the stretch. Are you serious or is this a joke ?. The expectation was 92 wins ? That's just flat out wrong. On April 22 redsoxfan2 wrote "This is a .500 team that just got hot".
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 3, 2021 23:06:32 GMT -5
Hopefully this is a turning point like the regular season loss to the Rams back in 01. There's no doubt they've dug a huge hole for themselves though.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 26, 2021 1:06:52 GMT -5
You can tell how old a Red Sox fan is by whether they have a pathological fear of the Yankees. To those of us younger than 35 or so, they’re just another team. I think this same thing often when reading this forum. I realized after the amazing 2018 season it’d never change, because multiple times during that dominant run they’d start panicking at the slightest moment of adversity. Dropping game one in the ALDS instantly negated the best Red Sox regular season ever, and we can pull the receipts. It goes beyond the Yankees too, many Red Sox fans seem to think having irrationally low expectations for the team makes it easier to deal with losses or something. They experience losses twice - mentally preparing for it before it happens, and then again after it actually occurs. So many times I’ve seen posters predict losses for a future individual game based on a lopsided pitching matchup or because the team had previously been cold, only to be wrong, yet they continue to do the same stuff over and over. I genuinely think it’s some type of disorder. I’d also criticize posters who do the opposite fwiw. Before someone tries to call me optimistic, I’m really not. I just do this crazy thing where I don’t expect to definitively know future results based solely on recent past results. I thought the 04 ALCS comeback would’ve made people realize a team’s “momentum” isn’t really predictive in baseball, but here we are.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 20, 2021 15:14:38 GMT -5
Okay fair enough likely a bad choice of words. Yeah it's the same offense, yet it's how you use it and what the players get used to based on the play. Example the RPOs from last year, that really were just option run plays because Newton hardly threw out of them and 90% of the time ran it himself. Same play, yet with Mac Jones you get almost no QB runs and he's going to throw a ton out of it, that's what he did in College. So it's the same play, yet it won't look the same and players will have to adjust. Which parts of the playbook you use and how much you use it, will change drastically. Unless you think Newton has completely changed and I truly do hope your right. You can have the same set plays say 120 just for an example, I have no clue what the amount truly is. Yet the offense is which plays you use, how you use them and how often you use them. So while it's likely the same plays that our in the offense, it will look totally different and some changes will be huge. Pro Football Reference lists Newton with 23 rushes and 13 passing attempts from the RPOs called last year. I don't know how accurate those totals are, but do you have a more reliable total? Unless they are way off (which is possible) it doesn't feel like a huge part of their offense. I don't think the skill guys have a big adjustment in terms of what they're asked to do, it's just whether they get the ball or not (except less blocking downfield if Mac runs less, but that's about it). If the verbiage or their routes changed it'd be different. I'd also like to point out the lack of talent in the skill group last year and their inability to separate in coverage made it more tempting to run the ball. Hopefully improved WR and TE play will make a big difference even if Cam doesn't take a big leap. If the TE's stay healthy I really like the combo of Henry + Smith + Agholor + two of Meyers/Bourne/a running back on any given passing play - there might not be a #1 target there, but all five targets are solid or better NFL starters.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 3, 2021 12:40:59 GMT -5
JD has hit .260/.330/.479 since last season started (669 PA's). This year has been much better than last year, but most of that was from his great start in April. Since April ended, JD's hit .264/.326/.459 over his last 325 PA's. You can't just throw out his incredible April, it's a reminder he can still be a dominant hitter, but recently that run was the outlier. If he continues hitting at his post-April pace, there's no chance he opts out - or if he does, I'd be thrilled at that point. He needs to get hot and go on a run.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 30, 2021 13:49:21 GMT -5
For what its worth I was in Vegas a few weeks ago put a couple hundred on the Chi Sox and a couple hundred on Boston to win it. Both with very good payouts. Either way I win. From a fan perspective this is an extremely frustrating deadline. I'm not a gambling expert, but if neither team wins…you lose, right? It's not a lock one of those two teams win the AL. Also, from this fan's perspective it's not frustrating at all. They rented an All Star for a singular non-elite prospect. It's not my all time favorite deadline at this point, but it's better than most.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 30, 2021 13:45:42 GMT -5
Correct, So what your essentially saying is they mis-managed the draft They mismanaged it so badly they wound up with the best prospect in the entire draft...
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 28, 2021 23:58:04 GMT -5
www.nbcsports.com/boston/video/mike-felger-rips-bruins-they-are-petrified-moving-tuukka-raskHa, Felger on a rant after Sweeney's comments today about his thinking with Ullmark and giving Tukka (WHO IS NO LONGER ON THE TEAM CURRENTLY), time to recover. Does Tukka have dirt on the front office? Why the fear from moving on from a guy who--to be clear--never won you a Stanley cup. He did choke in two, but didn't actually win you won, Thomas did. Why are we afraid to move on from him? Why would you burn the bridge with Rask, what's the upside in that other than giving content to talk radio goons? Instead, maybe Sweeney is trying to preserve the relationship because A.) injuries happen B.) Rask has suggested Boston is the only place he'll play C.) if an injury occurs, Rask will likely be the top replacement available, so preserving the relationship makes more sense than bashing a guy to the media for no actual gain. If Rask isn't needed, there's no obligation to take him back, but right now he's quality unofficial depth with no actual cost…why punt on that right now?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 21, 2021 22:43:56 GMT -5
Then I'm very confused as to why you would say to sign erod to 3 years 36 million deal if it's not even half of what you think he could get...? I told you… it’s what I think he’s worth. I think who ever signs him for your suggestion ( or more ) will be very disappointed …yet your own list of priorities had re-signing E-rod ABOVE extending Devers… If you think he's only worth a small percentage of his possible market value, why did you list re-signing him as a higher priority than a Devers extension? These certainly seem like conflicting ideas.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 2, 2021 14:59:57 GMT -5
I think people overlook how important it is for a new GM to properly evaluate the talent he inherits. For example, Bloom identified Price and Benintendi as guys to move, even if fans felt like it was selling low on those players. He could've ate money and dealt JDM and Eovaldi to increase payroll flexibility but he held onto them. He let JBJ walk, and that has worked out. Imagine a scenario where he attached Eovaldi's deal to Mookie instead of Price.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 2, 2021 12:27:18 GMT -5
I have said this more than once. Kyle Gibson is out there and the Sox should do what it takes to get him. Add a top of the line starter to this team and they are a lot closer to being a WS winner!!! That is the bottom line PERIOD!!! Trading for Kyle Gibson like he’s a top of the line starter is likely a big mistake. Having a career year at 33, I’ll pass, assuming it’s a big price tag. Yeah, just look at Gibson's HR/FB rate so far this year compared to his career numbers. His LOB% and BABIP against scream unsustainable luck too, but he's been a good pitcher for sure. I don't think GM's trade based on ERA in the year 2021, and given his age and track record his cost could be somewhat reasonable, but many teams project to need a starter so given the Red Sox needs I doubt they splurge on Gibson.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 29, 2021 13:01:00 GMT -5
It feels like a lot of people want to avoid going over the tax because it'll "start the clock" on when the Red Sox will have to dip under the tax again. I'd only worry if the trade acquisitions are signed to expensive longer term contracts. The Red Sox aren't stuck with a bunch of bad contracts for years to come, they'd have a clear path to resetting as soon as next year if they wanted to.
If the options are: A.) upgrade the roster while taking on salary B.) make trades but pay extra in talent to avoid absorbing money C.) stand pat and hope for the best
I'd hope A is the route they choose. Who knows what the market will look like, and I'm not asking for them to overpay in prospect currency for rentals, but they shouldn't pass on guys who can help just to avoid going over this year's tax. Paying extra in talent in order to get the other team to eat money is what small market teams do. If the Red Sox plan to go nuts this offseason and hand out a few huge FA deals it could change the discussion, but this team has clear holes and deserves additional investments assuming reasonable buying opportunities exist. I do agree with those who think barely going over is a waste though, so they should make it count if they do go over, I'm not sure how many franchises will be willing to absorb real money this deadline.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 25, 2021 12:39:21 GMT -5
From what I read, Asiasi was receiving a lot of praise during OTAs. He's definitely an important piece, it's not a given Smith or Henry will stay healthy, and having a viable third TE would allow them to continue to run heavy 12 personnel even if one of the top two guys miss time. There's also the possibility of some rare 3 TE packages in short yardage situations.
I agree with Umass, Keene was always a reach, especially given the trade up cost. To be fair to Keene, he's a decent athlete and Bill said there was nothing he did in college that they'd ask him to do here, he was a complete projection/project pick. For the draft cost I'd think Bill wants him to stick, it's tough to draft a guy that high and admit he's a total project who needs to do new things only to cut him in camp during year two. That said, it's tough to see how they waste a spot on him if he can't fill a role this season. Being able to contribute as a FB/H-back hybrid with some ST value could be enough to stick. If he's cut I'd bet he's added to some roster, so practice squad seems unlikely.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 8, 2021 16:12:55 GMT -5
The other dynamic is absorbing another big salary while Gilmore and Jackson are stuck with their contracts. I still wonder if both players will end up on the week 1 roster. Long term, I'd be very surprised if both are still on the 2022 roster, and I'd put the odds close to 50/50 that even one is on the 2022 roster. I know that sounds crazy, but individually we've seen guys with their profiles leave the Pats in FA. Gilmore's age and market value make it tough, if the Pats can't extend him before this year I'd bet on a departure in FA unless they tag him. JC seems like a guy that will be paid as a true #1 corner, and I don't think Bill will value him like that. I don't see Bill overextending himself for one player just because he's losing the other, he won't view it like that even if fans and media will.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 6, 2021 14:58:21 GMT -5
Cordero's best season he gave his team .2 bwar. I'm fine betting on a lottery ticket, yet he wasn't some high upside prospect. He was never close to even Chavis, who at 2B has real value and upside. Now 1B is a whole different ball game, let's just make that clear. You can't overlook the money, given what it cost the Yankees in German to unload money this year. You can certainly say it's smart, yet you also have to add that in. So no I don't think that Royals package equals Benintendi at full value, not even close. Not if you project 6.5 war for Benintendi. For years this board has always been saying five nickels doesn't equal a quarter when it comes to prospects in Baseball. I was naive at first, yet over the years I've come to understand why. That's what this trade is. Now a crazy smart GM might be able to pull off mini miracles. It certainly happens. Red Sox win this trade it shows you how good Bloom is. It's not that you won this trade on current value, it's Bloom was able to spot players that were being undervalued. Cordero has never played more than 40 games in a season, so solely citing a full season WAR total to project him moving forward isn't fair. If he was a regular starter and never materialized it'd be a different conversation, this guy is still relatively raw. FWIW Fangraphs had Cordero at 45FV in 2018, and Chavis at 45FV in 2019. I'm not sure how you can suggest he "was never close" to Chavis, you're either overrating what Chavis was a prospect or underrating Cordero. I'm not a big Franchy fan, I'm just trying to keep it consistent. I see your Chavis profile pic so I'm assuming you're invested in him. If he proves to be a decent defensive 2B moving forward sure, I'd prefer that to Franchy's risk/reward profile.
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Post by beasleyrockah on May 19, 2021 21:37:24 GMT -5
28 year old rookie shouldn't be publicly at odds with his manager, regardless of the manager or situation. Gotta play to get paid. You play when you are performing. The rookie was hitting .368/.417/.571 entering tonight. The manager is the one who made it public. The manager is the one that's more disposable to the franchise, not the cheap cost controlled player who literally did nothing wrong. There's literally no upside to his manager attacking him, except for LaRussa to cozy up to his fellow old crusty out of touch baseball friends. LaRussa should stop focusing on the unwritten rules of baseball and focus more on not operating motor vehicles when he's intoxicated.
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Post by beasleyrockah on May 3, 2021 13:18:33 GMT -5
The Jets trade had literally nothing to do with the Patriots getting Mac Jones. Every team in the NFL knew Jones to NE was a possibility, if anyone wanted him that bad they would've easily beat the Jets offer for the 14th pick. The Vikings clearly weren't taking Jones based on the fact that they traded the pick in the first place.
If the Patriots felt like Fields was a tier above Jones, they should've traded up to #10-11 and landed Fields. If they felt they were at least comparable (not as players, but as overall prospects) they played it correct, unless they viewed another QB selected 6th or further down as comparable to Jones. Personally I would've loved if they traded up for Fields, but I'll acknowledge a big part of that is being a fan and wanting to watch the more dynamic talent. After watching 20 years of Brady, as good as he was, I'd like to watch a guy like Fields create offense in new ways than the style Mac plays. Plus, I do think Fields is a better player.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 30, 2021 21:25:06 GMT -5
I can't lie, I didn't like Barmore as much as most but he's exactly what their defensive line needed. The Pats pass rush is going to be lethal when combined with their coverage (assuming Gilmore and Jackson stick around). They have so many guys that can rush the passer at a high level. Teams will be trying to run on early downs to avoid low percentage third and longs, that's for sure.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 24, 2021 11:36:10 GMT -5
I keep seeing people say Santana is coming and will be a good addition. I am not sure I see it. Dude is a 2.3 WAR player in 7 years. He had a promising rookie year and one good season. But even in 2019, he walked 25 times and Kd 151 times. He is the same model as the rest of these guys: some power, sub-.300 career OBP, etc. And he has a negative career dWAR... I don’t know how accurate that is and haven’t seen him field, but I gave been impressed by Marwin’s D at multiple positions. I just don’t see Santana as adding much. He is fine depth to step in if Marwin gets hurt or Arroyo falters badly or something, but he feels redundant right now. Add: what is it with these guys who have had mixed careers and poor recent performances that this FO likes so much? Santana, Renfroe, Franchy, Marwin.... all these guys are just littered with red flags. I get giving guys a shot, minor league contracts, etc. But this team has gone kind of all in on the assumption that guys will be at their best or in some cases better than they’ve been. I like Kiké, but he’s in the same category. He sort of has to play above his career averages to be a good starter. Their acquisition cost. They were cheap. You don't get well rounded good players for their prices unless they get lucky. I would disagree that they went "all in", this year was clearly about doing the opposite- not going all in on 2021 or doing anything to hurt future years. These guys are meant to improve the depth of the club so they aren't forced to play sub-replacement level talents like last year. Now, if they gave these guys 3+ years at real money the conversation would be different. It's not like these guys would've been Bloom's top targets if the price didn't matter. It's pretty easy to sign a JD Martinez type as a free agent when you significantly outbid the other 29 teams for example.
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