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Post by thursty on Dec 1, 2015 20:43:03 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure Ben Cherington could have managed to offer Price the same contract; spending lots of money isn't a skill
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Post by thursty on Dec 1, 2015 20:19:11 GMT -5
I suppose if you really want to stretch it, you could argue that the opt-out does create a financial incentive (which has some correlation to effort/production) that wouldn't otherwise be there
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Post by thursty on Dec 1, 2015 20:00:38 GMT -5
Except Price only opts out if his market value is greater than what is left on the contract. And if his market value is greater than his contract than the team could trade him and get something in return. This gets into complicated questions regarding what level of rationality weexpect people to display, a bet on the rate of increase re contracts, etc. However, what is true is not weather he will act in a way that maximizes his earnings, or that teams will value him the same; what is true is that the right to reexamine the market rests solely in his camp. Best to treat it as an empirical question, viz. has any player ever opted out and signed for less than the money he walked away from?
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Post by thursty on Dec 1, 2015 19:51:51 GMT -5
Can't wait for next offseason when we're debating how much we'd have to eat of the remaining 190m to dump him. C'mon dude. You've been constantly crapping on DDo's moves all offseason. At least be fair and reasonable. Nobody thinks this will be a bad deal next year or in the next 3 years. He's pitched well in the AL East and pitched exceptionally well in Fenway. No reason to believe he won't be outstanding for several years. Sure an injury can happen. But that doesn't really make your position any better. You can't predict those things. He's always been healthy. Your anti DDo sarcasm is getting old. You haven't offered any analysis or alternate opinions (as far as I can see). Have they overpaid a bit in prospects and money for Kimbrel and Price. Probably. But they got arguably one of the top 5 starters and closers. They gave up some decent prospects, but kept the ones most really wanted to keep. Try have the chance to trade a starter from depth for prospects to recoup somewhat what was lost in the Kimbrel deal (this has been reported - although I think it was Cafardo and I don;t trust anything from his mouth). Maybe not the most efficient offseason, but hard to argue he didn't address the Sox' needs and get things done. And your sycophantic support for his every move is tiresome; you call the above analysis? Think about it
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Post by thursty on Dec 1, 2015 18:39:30 GMT -5
Unbelievable skill demonstrated by Dombrowski in offering $30 more than any competitor
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Post by thursty on Dec 1, 2015 18:30:40 GMT -5
Why would he ever opt out at 33 years old? Unless salaries are go up 40-50% over the next few years, there's no way he opts out. zach greinke
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Post by thursty on Nov 25, 2015 12:02:17 GMT -5
It's easy - you compare it to what the value exchanged in other trades was this offseason. So far, based on the Simmons (Braves got less for more years of control of an every day player) and Rodriguez (Milwaukee got less in value for a player who was worse, but the drop in value was bigger than the drop in talent) trades, it looks like a steep overpay. We'll see how it shakes out by the end of the offseason, but it's not like arguing about the value paid at a certain time is something that can't be argued either way. Is it that easy tho? The "over paid" thing is based off a calculation that we've decided to put all of our stock in. So without going into the minutia of it all, we all agree that based off of those numbers it was an over pay. That's easy and simple and also it's not the end all and be all. A GMs job is to weigh many things and build a team, in this case a Championship team. He needs to use the assets he had and fit the pieces of the puzzle together both longterm and short term. Assets need to be used in one way or another and the pieces need to fit together in real life. JIM YOU CAN TYPE IN ALL CAPS BUT WE STILL WONT AGREE. We feel bullpen pieces (I don't like the term closers anymore) are way undervalued by the flawed statistics you put all your stock into. Even your own people are starting to realize there is something to this but you still dismiss it as being insignificant or not there. "Well even if you adjust for 1.7 wins its still not close". Well maybe people needs to start to realize you can't tuck the full impact of a player into one number. Especially across positions. "But they have positional and park adjustments". Right because they are born from the laws of the universe. I know it's simpler and more convenient to add up numbers and get your answer for what's right and what's going to happen but it's not necessarily reality. WAR thinks Salty was more valuable to the Red Sox in 2013 than Koji and I'm sure you do too. Pure piffle
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Post by thursty on Nov 22, 2015 23:33:41 GMT -5
Here's the thing about using Uehara as a bullpen ace: because of his age and injury history, if you want him to be healthy at the end of the season, you need to handle him with kid gloves. You'll want to give him plenty of time to get warmed up and not warm him up unnecessarily very often. He almost fits better in the closer role, where you can give him plenty of warmup time and somewhat limit his usage. Kimbrel, as the young guy with no injury history, would fit better as the bullpen ace you use in the highest-leverage earlyish innings. But, of course, that'll never happen, because saves Farrell. FTFY
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Post by thursty on Nov 22, 2015 0:21:22 GMT -5
Dave Stewart on paying for reliever aces:
“I’ve made it pretty clear that I’m just not in the mood to give up three or four players for one guy at the back end of my bullpen,”
Damn. Dave Stewart
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Post by thursty on Nov 19, 2015 21:25:49 GMT -5
Mookie received an 8th (Mellinger KC) and 10th (PeteAbe)
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Post by thursty on Nov 19, 2015 2:15:08 GMT -5
Man, you really are committed to the idea that Dombrowki can do no wrong, huh? Well, no, I am just not inclined to believe that any baseball executives are profoundly stupid, and clearly undervaluing prospects by half, or overpaying by double would be inexplicable folly, so I tend to believe there is another explanation. I mean the Sox in particular just beefed up their front office with some of the most experienced minds in the game. Could they all be moronic? I think the vote was unanimous, except for me, that the Red Sox overpaid. Inexplicable folly is a pretty good characterization of a former GM, cum 1st-base coach
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Post by thursty on Nov 17, 2015 17:15:20 GMT -5
to be precise, the crowd-sourcing has historically undervalued the elite free agents, and overvalued the lesser FAs
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Post by thursty on Nov 16, 2015 22:54:55 GMT -5
Another issue: Kimbrel has been used strictly as a 1 IP reliever (looks like in last 4 years, only 7 times has he pitched more than an inning - all 1.1) Now maybe that's his managers, maybe it's him. But Farrell isn't exactly an innovator, hard to imagine he'll be used any differently, therefore minimizing his team value regardless of how brilliantly he performs.
3 days later, despite the sycophantic justifications (Speier has become a company man), I hate this trade as much as before, and I hate what it portends of the future for this team
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Post by thursty on Nov 15, 2015 14:03:37 GMT -5
Wow, just wow. Notice I didn't posit AL East closer and Margot AND Guerra AND Allen AND Asuaje or Kimbrel. You could do the exercise with 20+ clubs, one of which would be willing to part with their closer for a still hefty price of Guerra, Allen, and Asuaje (and if you prefer to swap Margot for Guerra fine with me). The rather obvious point, is that even if you buy that Kimbrel is a top-5 reliever, his marginal value over at least 20 other closers isn't worth Margot (or Guerra). I'm not sure I wouldn't choose Papelbon and Margot over Kimbrel and you could get him for Reed Gragnani Yeah I'm definitely taking Kimbrel and no Margot with a lesser Papelbon with Margot. If Papelbon was closing games for this team next year, then this team would of went no where for the 3rd straight year in a row. No way I want papelbon closing playoff games anymore. Fine, the point wasn't about Papelbon (I should have restrained myself)
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Post by thursty on Nov 15, 2015 13:50:01 GMT -5
Wow, just wow. Notice I didn't posit AL East closer and Margot AND Guerra AND Allen AND Asuaje or Kimbrel.
You could do the exercise with 20+ clubs, one of which would be willing to part with their closer for a still hefty price of Guerra, Allen, and Asuaje (and if you prefer to swap Margot for Guerra fine with me).
The rather obvious point, is that even if you buy that Kimbrel is a top-5 reliever, his marginal value over at least 20 other closers isn't worth Margot (or Guerra).
I'm not sure I wouldn't choose Papelbon and Margot over Kimbrel and you could get him for Reed Gragnani
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Post by thursty on Nov 15, 2015 12:09:54 GMT -5
Probably futile . . . For all of those declaring the uniqueness/greatness of Kimbrel, try this exercise, just focussing on the AL East.
Which would you choose: Britton and Margot or Kimbrel Miller and Margot or Kimbrel McGee and Margot or Kimbrel Osuna and Margot or Kimbrel
The only one I might hesitate on is McGee (because of recent injury)
Dominant closers are the norm, not the exception
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Post by thursty on Nov 14, 2015 21:55:26 GMT -5
To answer the question posed ==> fire Dino (as in dinosaur) Dombrowski
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Post by thursty on Nov 14, 2015 21:35:10 GMT -5
I'm sure if you asked JWH, he'd say the real debacle would be finishing in last again. I doubt that. If you're running a hedge fund and more than 90% of your trades turn a profit, you're not taking enough risks. As a highly successful hedge fund manager, John Henry surely knows that a bad outcome does not always reflect a bad process, nor is he likely to be prone to the gambler's fallacy. It's occurred to me that you have no idea what the gambler's fallacy is
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Post by thursty on Nov 14, 2015 21:30:45 GMT -5
Can't help but think that it isn't coincidence that the GM who drafted and developed Kimbrel and signed him to the largest extension given a reliever (at that time) was one Frank Wren. I wonder if Dombrowski could even pick Hazen out of a lineup
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Post by thursty on Nov 14, 2015 21:27:57 GMT -5
There were reports on many potential partners. For anyone not to believe DD knew EXACTLY what other teams were requiring is not practical thinking. By the time he finished talking with every team he knew who they would be willing to trade, and who they might consider in trade, and what they wanted in return. In the end he thought the Kimbrel deal was the best one to make. The cost was high, and that should trigger others to ask, "OMG, how much does a cost controlled starter (Carrasco, Salazar, Sale, et al) cost." Instead there is a belief that a better deal was absolutely available. That's a huge assumption to make. This is the exact same BS we heard about the Fister trade. "DD knows what he's doing, Robbie Ray must be a secret stud, he knows more than we do." How'd that work out? By your logic no trade by any GM can ever be criticized because they're all pros who do their due diligence and can only make the deals that are available. It's nonsense. Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding
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Post by thursty on Nov 14, 2015 21:25:56 GMT -5
Are we all forgetting here that kimbrell could very well be the best closer in the league for the next two years? He's already dominant, but he has the potential which he has shown, to be the number one closer in this generation. Chapman is up there, but it would require more moving parts with the signinf. Getting to watch the Nats has allowed me to see how truly and utterly devastating he is for streaks of time. While just dominant in others. It's CRAIG KIMBRELL. All the prospects could undergo surgery next year. Anything iS possible. He was worth it to this fan and many others. Veterans or staff of a forum or not What's more likely: a 28-year-old who's thrown high-velocity for 6 ML seasons and who has a rising walk and HR rate needing surgery; or 4 prospects (3 of them position players) "all undergoing surgery next year"? Think about it
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Post by thursty on Nov 13, 2015 22:46:14 GMT -5
So, the Padres turned Matt Wisler and Jordan Paroubeck into Margot, Guerra, Asuaje and Allen. this is an excellent point; for all those who rely on the "the cost had to be prohibitive - that's the market" we happen to have a very relevant data point ==> Kimbrel was just traded last offseason. The Braves traded: Kimbrel Melvin Upton (and his contract - he has probably the largest *negative value* in baseball San Diego traded: Carlos Quentin (retired) Cameron Maybin Jordan Paroubeck (since traded along with another prospect for an international signing $) Matt Wisler (he of the 5+ ERA in AAA in 2014) What has happened in the intervening year: Kimbrel got a year older had his worst season as a ML (other than his partial 2010 rookie year) Think of it: just one year ago, Kimbrel was worth less than a trade for Margot and Allen alone and his value has only declined. There are no words
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Post by thursty on Nov 13, 2015 21:22:39 GMT -5
I bet the Royals would have given up Wade Davis in a heartbeat for this ransom
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Post by thursty on Nov 13, 2015 21:16:25 GMT -5
And one thing I want to emphasize, Kimbrel is showing some worrying signs of decline. 2 years in a row of walking over 3/9 worst WHIP since 2010 (his rookie year) worst HR rate of career (with Petco his home park) worst FIP- and ERA- of his career. Yes, he throws hard and strikes out a lot. But, it's not clear to me he's a safer bet than a healthy Koji
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Post by thursty on Nov 13, 2015 20:40:22 GMT -5
Isn't Guerra projected as a preseason top 100 prospect? Seriously, can we please stop with this "We're overrating our own guys!" bullshit. There are literally five million prospect rankers on the internet today and none of them are beholden to Red Sox for any reason. We know how guys are rated by objective sources and what value they have (roughly). Come up with a better argument or leave the thread. What? I'm assuming that's not directed at me.
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