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Post by thursty on May 29, 2017 17:53:24 GMT -5
Do you really not understand how the baseball trade market works? Do you think it's like buying a gallon of milk at the grocery store, where the price is just listed and if you have the money you buy it? It's not a transparent market.
Just for one instance, it's been reported that for the throw-in in the Peavy trade Hahn had demanded that the Red Sox include a certain 2nd baseman who had just 2 months of a breakout at low-A. Imagine where this team would be if Dombrowski were the GM at that time. And of course you would have argued that Mookie Betts was garbage
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Post by thursty on May 28, 2017 12:06:37 GMT -5
2017 Kimbrel isn't "the Kimbrel he has always been" - he has a *career* 40% K-rate and 10% BB rate and he hasn't had a bad thumb his whole life; this year it's 53 and 3 respectively. He's been even better than his remarkable 2012. No one saw nor could foresee this. Oh, and for the first time in his career he's being used as something other than a rocking-chair closer
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Post by thursty on May 25, 2017 23:56:09 GMT -5
Well, if you're so sensitive about the tone of the discussion, a little self-awareness is all that's required to see that "Who is playing arbitrary endpoint games right now?" isn't helpful (and as I pointed out, shows a fundamental misapprehension of "arbitrary endpoints")
I didn't see the point about his actual poor defensive play (maybe you edited that in?) as opposed to his simple lack of playing third - and I generally don't put much stock in errors as an indication of defensive skill, but 7 errors in 93 innings . . . is brutal.
As I wrote, if he is indeed brutal, then that would be a legitimate reason to delay his promotion as it affects others negatively. But for me, a 200+ in 160 PAs is evidence enough that he's mastered the level offensively. Regardless, as long as Devers remains at AA, it's difficult to see how he gets promoted
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Post by thursty on May 25, 2017 22:23:32 GMT -5
If the Rangers are the 2nd best team in the AL West, then the Astros will have wrapped up the division by the AS Break. Brutal
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Post by thursty on May 25, 2017 21:57:28 GMT -5
So now he'll strikeout 4 in an inning
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Post by thursty on May 25, 2017 21:38:39 GMT -5
The claim that Devers' July 2016 is equivalent to what Chavis has done this year isn't serious and requires no detailed refutation.
I do not understand the claim that you don't promote a player unless he has nothing else to work on; if a prospect has fixed all his deficiencies then you either: a. promote him to majors b. trade him c. adjudge him dispensable
Why couldn't Chavis continue his defensive work at AA? Unless he is such a butcher that it would negatively impact his pitchers/fellow infielders. What can't be duplicated in A is the quality of pitching at AA.
And I fail to see how data-based arguments are "hostile" - that's on you
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Post by thursty on May 25, 2017 17:21:01 GMT -5
Ha! There's nothing arbitrary about BOS - YTD (that's so obvious as to require no explanation), especially for a 21-year old getting his first look at a level (I think it's fair to disregard his 27 PA at Salem last year).
My point is that any comparison to Devers is specious, Devers has never done this at any level; there's "holding your own" and then there's dominating; Chavis has an over *200+* in ~ 160 PAs - for me, the gold standard is Betts' 2014, where he had *only* a 177+ in ~250 PA; now perhaps you were against promoting Betts in 2014 at AA (because after all his most likely outcome was as a ML utility player - oops!), but it sure seems to have worked out.
As to promoting him now, probably not because Devers is in AA at 3B - once Sandoval is activated, I would promote Devers to AAA and Chavis to AA; you generally promote a player once he's no longer being challenged - what would you need to see? a 300+? 200+ for another 150 PAs? If that's the standard, Devers would still be at Salem or Greenville. What's the point?
Chavis's BB% is up, his K% down - there's nothing in his peripherals that screams "fluke" - sure a couple more weeks isn't make-or-break, but then let's give the kid a shot
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Post by thursty on May 25, 2017 16:08:35 GMT -5
Devers never hit like this in Salem, no matter how many arbitrary endpoint games you play; to wit he has as many HRs as Devers had in ~ 1/3 of the PAs. If Devers "hit his way out of Salem", Chavis has more so.
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Post by thursty on May 25, 2017 13:27:05 GMT -5
As far as his defense, his ballhawking +/- is top 10 in 2017. Buxton and Herrera are the top 2 and it's not close. Inciarte is 3rd (no "regression" at all), Kiermaier 4th. Pillar has been the most disappointing - just a bit above average (which is actually poor for a CF)
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Post by thursty on May 24, 2017 13:04:46 GMT -5
Miguel Gonzalez, Alex Wilson, Frankie Montas (tbd)
That's stretching "blossoming" quite a bit, but 2 of the 3 have provided some MLB value, and Montas is still a talent
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Post by thursty on May 24, 2017 10:47:15 GMT -5
Well Roberto Alomar was the best defensive 2B of his generation, Jeter the worst defensive SS of his generation
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Post by thursty on May 21, 2017 19:19:48 GMT -5
Let's give proper props to Farrel and his coaching staff for recognizing a weakness with the combination of Triggs and the Oakland A's outfield and exploiting (come to think of it maybe the players took it upon themselves? that would be even better)
Mookie put on a master class in baserunning and Bradley's double was a thing of beauty. It's well past time that they put Xander, who's a fine baserunner himself, at leadoff and Betts 2nd - let them just play it as they see fit - and of course banishing Pedroia from the top of the lineup which is long past due.
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Post by thursty on May 21, 2017 16:30:43 GMT -5
That's why you might bat Mookie 1st - best baserunner in baseball
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Post by thursty on May 21, 2017 10:50:25 GMT -5
There is zero evidence that slider % (or any other pitch mix %) is predictive of injury (just go back and read the Carson thread).
Thornburg however, had a torn UCL that was not treated with surgery.
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Post by thursty on May 20, 2017 8:08:51 GMT -5
Yes. Are you unaware of the launch angle revolution? One can hardly turn around without reading a story of the latest hitter renaissance due to hitting more flyballs (Donaldson, Martinez, Alonso, et al). Plus direction and even spin. Hanley Ramirez consistently leads (maybe excepting Ortiz) the Red Sox in average EV - is he the best hitter on the team? I think not. Whatever ails Bradley, I don't think the solution is for him to hit harder ground balls. I'm pretty sure I've seen a hit probability chart for GBs (but I can't find it), where HP is not a monotonically increasing function of EV.
The story isn't as simple as: Player X has poor results, but Player X has a relatively high average EV Therefore, Player X has just been a victim of bad luck and will see better results going forward
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Post by thursty on May 19, 2017 10:06:11 GMT -5
One should be careful at just referencing raw EV as a surrogate for some true batting skill - many GBs are hit very hard (even over 100) and have very small hit probability.
Bradley has always had an abnormally low IFH% (~ 6% and 4% this year), partly because of the shift and partly because of his mediocre speed.
Bogaerts, the King of BABIP, has a career 10% IFH%
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Post by thursty on May 19, 2017 9:53:22 GMT -5
I believe today marks the beginning of Sandoval's rehab stint as well; it will be interesting to see how he and Holt split positions - I would think that Sandoval gets the vast majority of time at 3B (and of course it's not really clear how often Holt can play).
Haven't heard anything about the planned duration of Sandoval's stay. But however long it is, when it's over and if Devers keeps it up, I don't know why they wouldn't promote Devers to AAA when Sandoval returns to the majors.
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Post by thursty on May 18, 2017 8:45:19 GMT -5
There is no such thing as a 5-man starting rotation.
The mistake y'all are making is sticking to the anachronistic idea that there is; it's much better to think of it in terms of innings - you have somewhere between 900 and 1000 innings you want from your starters. If you build a roster where you're depending on those innings coming from 5 pitchers - that's like a 3% probability (maybe 1 in 30 teams a year are lucky enough for that to happen) It's basically just a variant of the stars and scrubs approach for everyday players - this is Dombrowski's approach, it's highly fraught and it is not surprising that it has failed. A much better approach is to plan on distributing those innings among 7-8 pitchers, recognizing that one or more of them will be total zeroes in terms of value (e.g. I laid out exactly this scenario as a justification of the Sale trade, viz. at least one of Wright/Rodriguez/Pomeranz would almost certainly be worthless this season, unfortunately it's looking like it will be 2)
And lay off the canard about "guaranteeing starts" to prospective pitchers; there has never been such a guarantee in any contract and there never will be one. It's about $. Period. If the Red Sox offer more guaranteed $ than their competitors - the pitcher will come regardless of any perceived "guarantee or not" to start. Dombrowski wasn't offering guaranteed major league contracts - that is the issue. Now, he doesn't have the money to guarantee (because of the CBT), that's not entirely his fault (Sandoval/Ramirez), but it significantly is (Price).
It's not a wise strategy to adopt a 3% solution when you've gutted the farm for a 3-year window. This season has most likely come down to the prospect of a return of an effective Price (and no other starter goes south). Doesn't seem likely.
There is no such thing as a 5-man starting rotation.
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Post by thursty on May 17, 2017 12:31:36 GMT -5
Do we really need to be breathless over 0-2 walks and flyouts to the warning track? Perhaps slow the hype train just a tiny bit?
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Post by thursty on May 16, 2017 21:01:31 GMT -5
TGFMB
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Post by thursty on May 16, 2017 20:34:19 GMT -5
It's obviously irrational to want to have Mookie get more PAs than Xander
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Post by thursty on May 16, 2017 10:55:16 GMT -5
The reason present wins are more valuable than future wins has nothing to do with "ways to manipulate future wins" (whatever that means) - it's that in the long run . . . we're all dead
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Post by thursty on May 16, 2017 10:36:10 GMT -5
The skill required to pay more than $30m than the next highest bidder is a rare one indeed, as in any other profession (indeed even in its own), it tends to get you fired, not plaudits
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Post by thursty on May 15, 2017 12:28:50 GMT -5
The genius of Dombrowski distilled: signing Kyle Kendrick. You.have.lost.the.plot
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Post by thursty on May 15, 2017 12:09:51 GMT -5
4 of the AL West ballparks were among the bottom 11 for park factors in 2016 (surprisingly Houston was last) Only Texas is a hitter's paradise
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