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Post by dirtywater on Mar 24, 2015 7:57:42 GMT -5
1. How many games will the Red Sox win in 2015? 872. Who will win AL MVP? Jose Abreu3. Who will win AL Cy Young? Felix Hernandez4. Who will win AL Rookie of the Year? Carlos Rodon5. Who will win the World Series? Washington Nationals6. Which current or ex-Red Sox player/prospect will get the most MVP vote points in 2015? Mookie Betts7. Who starts the most games for Boston after Porcello, Buchholz, Miley, Masterson, and Kelly? Eduardo Rodriguez8. Who is the first player to be added to the 25-man roster on or after April 15? (players coming off the DL do not count). Rusney Castillo (from minors), if that doesn't count, Steven Wright9. Who is the first player to earn a permanent promotion after the season starts? (from any level to any level - not just to Boston - but excluding rehab re-assignments or call-ups from XST) Yoan Moncada10. Name one player the Red Sox will draft in 2015. Justin HooperRed Sox minor league system only 11. Which pitcher has the most wins? Brian Johnson12. Most strikeouts? Michael Kopech13. Which hitter hits the most home runs? Sam Travis14. Best OPS? (min 200 PAs) Rafael Devers15. Most stolen bases? Manuel Margot16. Who will be voted the Offensive POY as voted by the SP Community? Sam Travis17. Pitcher of the Year? Brian Johnson18. Breakout POY? Michael Kopech19. Comeback POY? Garin Cecchini20. Which prospect will make the biggest jump in the SoxProspects rankings? Danny MarsRead more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/2580/2015-soxprospects-prediction-game#ixzz3VJ3F4y00
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Post by dirtywater on Feb 18, 2015 9:50:40 GMT -5
Old friend Frank Montas comes in at 113, in the FV 50 group. That Peavy trade looks ill advised at this point. Yeah we needed an extra arm in 2013, but he really wasn't that key down the stretch, especially in the playoffs. We essentially traded Montas and Iglesias for Escobar, Hembree and one year of a #5 starter. meh.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 16, 2015 13:47:50 GMT -5
One last thing, many of you have been on a certain Nick Cafardo. My eyes have been open wide. I believe you oh smart ones. This man has no right to be talking Red Sox baseball or any other teams. It amazes me how ill-prepared some folks are. The comment Cafardo made about Moncada and the Sox was so ridiculous. When I see him on the MLB network I get quite ill. I'm sorry I doubted you all.....he stinks! Cafardo has some of this best sources in the industry. But his opinions are hot garbage. I seem to remember him clamoring for the sox to sign Josh Hamilton a couple years ago right after they got out from the Crawford contract.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 15, 2015 14:43:18 GMT -5
Wait... what? why? Tell me how that is fair or makes any sense. ROY should be abotu which rookie had the best year. Are you saying a guy that is a blue chip prospect should win ROY over a C+/B- DeGrom type if he has comparable yet definitively lesser numbers? I'm totally with the best rookie season winning RoY. And yet: Player A: 666 PA, .283 / .333 / .470, +4 defense at 1B, 0 SB / 1 CS, 22 GDP. 81 R, 88 RBI for a team that scored 719; 467 outs. 3.2 bWAR. Player B: 592 PA, .307 / .405 / .521, +1 defense in LF, 42 SB / 5 CS, 7 GDP. 85 R, 75 RBI for a team that scored 605; 362 outs. 6.0 bWAR. The BBWAA in their infinite wisdom gives ROY to player A, pretty much because he was a hyped prospect and Player B was a surprise. Subsequent career bWAR: Player A: 65.1 Player B: 2.1 This is fascinating, you've piqued my interest. Who are these players?
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 15, 2015 14:38:58 GMT -5
The purpose of the ROY is to promote future stars of the game. If not why have it? In 1994, Bob Hamelin won the award at age 26 over Manny Ramirez who was 6 years younger at the time and clearly had a brighter future though his numbers weren't as good as Hamelin's. Manny should have won the award and that he didn't makes the award less relevant in my view. Numbers should be put in context. A 19 year old CF numbers are not the same as a 28 year old 1B's even if both are in their first year in the league....and voters are allowed to think along the same lines as well they should. As for Eric's continued "scouts are stupid and I'm not" meme, I think that even he agreed at the time that Manny Ramirez had a brighter future than Bob Hamelin. The part I bolded I'm not sure is correct. The award is for the rookie who had the best season. Scouts are not stupid but it's not 100% that said hyped prospect goes on to have a better career than a lower rated rookie who exceed expectations. It's greater than 50% and growing probably, but not a given. Baseball is a random game and stuff happens that players, coaches, GMs, scouts and media experts cannot predict. We can sit here and play God and pretend like we think we know what's going to happen. We might a little. We're getting better at it. But no matter how much we think we know there are so many facets, parameters and variables to the game we don't even know we don't know. They are finite, yes but can be impossible to predict no matter how many complex models we create. That's a lot of the draw to the game for me. You have to give credit where credit is due and not just have expectations on one outcome which we deem to be worthy before the games are even played.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 15, 2015 9:45:06 GMT -5
Agreed, the graph is a great concept about the state of teams in baseball. I think Grant said it was mostly for fun and I wouldn't put too much stock in exactly where a team is positioned. Yankees and Phillies being almost off the graph is obviously for comedic effect.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 15, 2015 9:05:36 GMT -5
Did you read any of it? 2/3rd of it was a troll arguing that Votto sucks because he doesn't get enough RBIs. It was actually kinda funny. twitter.com/joeynottocannot tell if that guy is an amazing troll or he's the dumbest baseball mind on the planet. I think he actually said he'd prefer Ryan Howard over Joey Votto because he had more homers and RBIs this year
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 15, 2015 9:00:24 GMT -5
Subscribe to the Globe. It was already worth it before they got Speier. Reading Boston.com is now like reading the engravings of rambling lunatics on bathroom stalls. Sad because it used to be a pretty good website.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 12, 2015 10:07:46 GMT -5
In the last 20 years, there have been 8 starting pitchers who won the Rookie of the Year award. 2014 NL: Jacob deGrom - 22 GS, 140.1 IP 2013 NL: Jose Fernandez - 28 GS, 172.2 IP 2011 AL: Jeremy Hellickson - 29 GS, 189 IP 2006 AL: Justin Verlander - 30 GS, 186 IP 2003 NL: Dontrelle Willis - 27 GS, 160.2 IP 2002 NL: Jason Jennings - 32 GS, 185.1 IP 1998 NL: Kerry Wood - 26 GS, 166.2 IP 1995 NL: Hideo Nomo - 28 GS, 191.1 IP Last season, only three MLB pitchers had over 100 innings in the second half: Kluber, Price, and Kershaw. deGrom won the ROY with 140 innings in a year where he pitched great and no other rookies had standout years. Basically Owens would need to be up by mid-June, he'd need to be truly outstanding (sub 2.50 ERA range), and it needs to be a season where no full-season rookies are having standout years. [ The ROY voting is starting to change. Voters may consider a candidates future value when voting for the award. Wait... what? why? Tell me how that is fair or makes any sense. ROY should be abotu which rookie had the best year. Are you saying a guy that is a blue chip prospect should win ROY over a C+/B- DeGrom type if he has comparable yet definitively lesser numbers?
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 9, 2015 14:28:21 GMT -5
oh my god i'm literally almost in tears looking at his bref page now. He pitched 2/3 of an inning for the Rangers A affiliate last year and gave up 13 runs. 18 batters faced, 9 BB, 7 HBP, 0 hits. And the most amazing part is no wild pitches. my bet is the official scorer just felt bad and stopped keeping count
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 9, 2015 14:13:55 GMT -5
oh my god i'm literally almost in tears looking at his bref page now. He pitched 2/3 of an inning for the Rangers A affiliate last year and gave up 13 runs.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 9, 2015 14:12:37 GMT -5
This is completely unrelated... I don't know why but after reading this thread, Daniel Bard popped into my head. My god was that ever a f--_ing mistake. The guy never made a start above A ball where he was terrible. I'm trying to recall. Why did this happen? Were we just so desperate for starters after 2011 or what? Like who OK'd that and thought it was going to turn out well?
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 7, 2015 9:21:36 GMT -5
Mike Napoli is our emergency catcher in this case! Right ahead of Pablo Sandoval in a pinch.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 5, 2015 14:32:45 GMT -5
The New England defense will shut them down. I can't wait to see how they do with playoff refs. I hate to say it but the refs were pretty easy on Baltimore. They went from "that was a legal version of a helmet to helmet" to "they MAY have got away with a facemask there" on back to back plays. the thing i'm most worried about on saturday is browner committing a bad penalty at a bad time
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 30, 2014 8:49:42 GMT -5
That is coming from a list of 9 possible suitors. I'm not so sure that's an exact ranking per se, because it's not explicitly stated anywhere. Red Sox just happened to be listed first. But they are numbered, so I guess it's all up to speculation. Yankees seem to me like the most likely suitor yet they are at #9.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 29, 2014 15:04:49 GMT -5
Rusney's eventual status is pretty key to the next 3/4 years. If he flames out (which honestly seems unlikely at this point), the Sox are back to having a hole in their outfield, with a lot depending on Margot's development or JBJ finding his way (there's really no other outfielder with projection in the pipeline in the medium-term, and precious few conversion candidates like Betts). But if he's above average or better, the Sox have a very good core of players for the next 4-5 years at a reasonable total cost ... So, you know, a little background to saying that it's good to see the initial returns be so positive. Yippee. You can argue two years ago no one outside of a few on this website had Betts on their radar. Not saying Betts type talent will jsut pop out of the woodwork all the time. It definitely doesn't. But this kind of stuff is very fluid obviously and it's hard to gauge what the Sox roster or farm system will really look like 4 years down the road.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 29, 2014 15:01:36 GMT -5
Puig played in Puerto Rico to shake off the rust after he signed in 2012. He slashed .232/.308/.333 with 4 XBH (1 HR) and a 19/7 K/BB in 20 games. Castillo is better than Puig... Just kidding, just kidding I just remembered that Puig played there so I went and checked how he did. wow, that's actually kind of surprising about puig. Then again Puig comes across as a guy who just does not care... so he could very well have been just goofing off. But based on what Chris said, overall it seems like there's a mixture of stars and bums. I remember reading somewhere (can't even begin to remember where, so I won't try to link) that the pitching is a complete wild card with some 95+ flame throwers and then some guys that sit low 80s if that. If anything this suggests that Castillo is able to adapt well to who he's facing. Maybe his pitch recognition is a bit better than I am set to expect. Then again this is all just probably SSS.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 29, 2014 9:45:57 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the PR winter league like really low level competition? like A ball maybe? I'm excited like everyone else, but lets not get too carried away with his performance down there. It's easy to get star struck when a man is playing amongst boys.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 23, 2014 12:37:43 GMT -5
Just because they have money coming off the books next year does not mean they should just splurge right now. They still have to find replacements for Napoli, Porcello, Buchholz etc. in 2016
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 23, 2014 8:57:36 GMT -5
Now that we have a first-division starter as Vazquez's backup, the future strategy is easy. At some point in the season, probably sometime in July, Swihart replaces Butler as the guy who gets called up as an injury replacement. And he gets called up in September and, assuming his season has gone well, gets a handful of starts against pitchers who have trouble with LHB. That should get you enough pitch-framing data to figure out how he actually compares and projects compared to Vazquez. I'm pretty sure the pitch framing data for the minor leagues exists somewhere. I can't seem to find it for 2014, but in 2013 Vazquez was #2 in the minor behind some non-prospect catcher who couldn't hit. 2013 ptch framing leaders
So I'm sure Swihart's #s are out there somewhere.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 23, 2014 8:43:28 GMT -5
Sorry about rehashing the opt out argument, didn't realize it was such a heavily discussed issue. I'm semi-new and have not read up on all the hot-stove debates.
My overall point is that if player X signs a 7 year contract with an opt out and performs up to it (or beyond it) for the first 4 years, you will take those back end 3 years every time. He will get way more on the market if he opts-out. The debate about the validity of offering 7 year contracts themselves is a completely different argument and I'd say very few players are worth it.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 22, 2014 13:09:19 GMT -5
I love that idea for the opt out clause in big contracts. I feel it's great esp for a pitcher like Scherzer who has power stuff that will likely diminish. Meanwhile getting the prime 4 years out of him and using his greed against him is genius in theory. Don't get me wrong I think Scherzer is one hell of a pitcher and reminds me a bit of Curt Schilling. I just think though he's more of a thrower who gets by on his power stuff than pitcher. Which to me separates pitches being able to pitch into their late 30's, and 40's successfully vs early 30's and just drop off a cliff to the point where you have to pay a good part of their contracts to be rid of them (Josh Beckett). If Scherzer diminishes to the point where he doesn't opt out, that's one ugly looking contract. Opt outs are for the player, including one doesn't make it a better contract for the team.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 22, 2014 10:32:05 GMT -5
It's hard to project a guy who has not played for so long with little MLB experience. The one thing I'm worried about his plate discipline a little. Seems to be a big free swinger.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 18, 2014 11:52:51 GMT -5
Peter Gammons referred to Castillo as "highly educated" in a recent article. Not saying this has anything to do with how good Castillo actually is, but I feel like Gammons is usually the lead conductor of the hype-train of a lot of sox prospects.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 15, 2014 10:52:05 GMT -5
And Masterson's struggles were likely injury related. While no guarantee, I'm sure the Sox had him checked out medically before the signing. Assuming he's healthy, there's no reason he can't pitch like Justin 2013. And I am sure they offered him "only" $9.5M with some incentives because they understand there is quite a bit of risk. A 2013 Masterson would be worth twice that much. To be honest, I'm not the biggest fan on the Masterson signing. I feel like there would have been similar risk if we had just slotted in one of our countless prospects, except they would not have cost 9.5 million. But I'm not incapable of seein the positives 1 He's on a make-good contract 2 The John Farrel can fix him factor 3 He's seems to genuinely like Boston and feels comfortable here 4 Like you said, in 2013 he was in line for a contract at least a half dozen times larger than the one he just got. Now I'm not some blind Cherington fanboy, there are negatives and positives - but there has to be more - maybe something the front office knows about him that the common fans are just unaware of.
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