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Post by dirtywater on Dec 15, 2014 10:29:10 GMT -5
case in point - masterson was seen as an extremely reliable innings eater until last year. these things can be volatile as much as you think an alternative is a sure bet.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 15, 2014 10:16:17 GMT -5
This is unrelated, but I was also shocked how quick of a hook Scherzer and Verlander were given in those games when they were barely at 100 pitches - if that. It seems liek some managers panic in the playoffs and feel compelled to make a move if there are any base runners in the 7th or 8th. You should read up on the times-through-the-order penalty. There are many pitchers who are somewhat immune to that www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=kj1sATo your point, Verlander wasn't immune last year. But Scherzer was
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 15, 2014 9:31:00 GMT -5
This is unrelated, but I was also shocked how quick of a hook Scherzer and Verlander were given in those games when they were barely at 100 pitches - if that. It seems liek some managers panic in the playoffs and feel compelled to make a move if there are any base runners in the 7th or 8th.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 15, 2014 9:22:25 GMT -5
To be fair, the Tigers bullpen blew 2 of those games And that's what happens when you unevenly address teams needs.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 15, 2014 9:10:11 GMT -5
Also, remember how essential it is to have a top of the rotation guy come playoff time?
How'd Jon Lester work out for the A's in the one game playoff?
How'd the Tigers uber-rotation fare against the Orioles? Did they win any games in the series?
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 15, 2014 9:00:22 GMT -5
This obsession over getting an established "ace" is the most annoying thing I've seen a while. Does a team need someone who pitched some arbitrary level of performance in 2014? No they do not. Pitching is volatile, guys who were dominate for years get hurt and fall a cliff. See Halladay, Lincecum, Verlander, Pedro, Johan Santana. Guys who were not aces, carry a team for year or even in the playoffs. See Beckett in 2007, Lester in 2013. The Red Sox need pitching, and as much as they can get, but just because they get THE GUY does not mean they will win the World Series, and not getting an established guy does not mean they'll automatically lose playoff games. +1 Look who won the AL Cy Young award last year, Corey Kluber. A guy who was mediocre his first two years in the league and wasn't even in the Indians top 20 prospects. Then there's Quintana - a guy who is an ace that no one talks about because there is a guy on his team that is better than him. Phil freaking Hughes was 5th in pitchers fWAR this year. Or Garret Richards who was basically Allen Webster up until 2014. Demolishing resources to find true aces is not a route I'd like to go. Especially since bluechip pointed out, most do not maintain their level of ace-dom for that long. It's been proven in baseball time after time that plenty of middling to second tier starter types (like the Red Sox have) are capable of making that leap randomly and it's not worth depleting resources just for a guy perceived to be in an elite category.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 14, 2014 23:28:39 GMT -5
let's lock him up 4/70 seems like a reasonable opening offer
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 3, 2014 11:59:21 GMT -5
You guys I found the source of the lester to cubs deal
seems legit
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 3, 2014 10:00:29 GMT -5
Hasn't Zach Lee's stock dropped significantly over the last 3 years? From John Sickels' Pre-Season Top Dodgers Prospects in Review: Sounds more like Brian Johnson than any other arm in the upper levels. His stock may be falling, and Johnson's rising, but they still seem like similarly valued prospects to me. Again though, this is meaningless if the source is talking out of his a**. That guy had Matt Kemp to the Orioles as a done deal 3 days ago. He's hearing whispers of conversations then making guesses. I'm not taking any stock into what he or the 14 year old is reporting.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 26, 2014 11:36:48 GMT -5
I'd give up any one of those four easily for Chris Sale. Hamels, however, just does not provide enough excess value over his contract to be worth it. It's not a matter of "untouchable", just a matter of value. At a certain point, fielding the best team is more important than getting maximum value. That philosophy is pretty much how the 2011 Red Sox happened.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 26, 2014 11:34:34 GMT -5
Merloni made a good point on WEEI.... If we were going to spend 100 mm on Hamels AND prospects... Why wouldn't we just go get James Shields instead? Because he's not nearly as good as Hamels because he's been severely aided by the Royals great defense and is 2 years older I agree there is a difference, but don't think the disparity is worth what the Phillies are asking for. RAJ is the roadblock and he's only going to make a deal in which he is the clear cut winner. He's a lame-duck GM who feels his legacy is hinging on what he gets for Hamels - who is pretty much his only valuable asset left on a team full of albatross corpses.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 26, 2014 8:39:49 GMT -5
@alexspeier: Hanley Ramirez contract: $3M bonus, 2015 - $19M, 2016-18 - $22M Vesting option for 2019: $22M Referred to him as LF Hanley Ramirez. Juan Francisco DFA'd. I don't understand why they didn't cut Weeks instead. I hope the Sox use the ten day period to sign him to a minor league deal I think it's just a matter of us being a little bit more thin up the middle. And by thin, I mean... less thick lol
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 26, 2014 8:35:01 GMT -5
My hope is for Mike Leake. Why? That'd be a major let down. Leake is a solid arm, but he better be the number 4. He's not a guy I want starting more than once in a 7 game series. I don't think you're going to get anything more than a #3/#4 starter on an expiring contract for Yoenis unless you're willing to give up a bit more.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 26, 2014 8:29:26 GMT -5
Based on the signings, Red Sox have made it pretty clear that Xander is the SS and SS only - at least here in Boston.
Everyone who trashes Xander's D and feels him to be inadequate - please tell me your plan to go out and get a clear upgrade and what you are willing to give up. I'm really intrigued by what you consider to be the alternative. Marrero is not ready.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 25, 2014 11:01:46 GMT -5
The most tax they have ever paid is 6.6m. That would mean they could go 34m over to pay that. However once you start going over by 20-30m ,it's very hard to get back under the cap in future years. Besides, they still need at least two starters and at least one reliever. That is going to cost more than 30m. They do have some payroll to clear, but I don't think there is any guarantee you can trade their excess guys for pitching. One way or another, they are going to clear payroll. As a general statement, I think that's probably true, but we don't have to deal in general statements ... we know exactly what the Sox situation is. They have, without a doubt, $24 million on the current books in Cespedes and Victorino that can come off without being replaced by other players. Whether that can happen by trade this year or by attrition after 2015 season is irrelevant to the analysis of their 2016 situation. Napoli is another $16 million that's coming off after next season, but he's complicated by the fact that you have to replace him somehow. Maybe that's taking Craig/Nava from backup roles this year into a platoon at first next year, which would be ideal from a payroll standpoint ... that would mean $40 million coming off that doesn't need to be replaced using any significant resources (you'd maybe have to add a player or two of depth, depending on what happens with JBJ/Cecchini/etc). The reason the Sox can do all of this and go significantly over the cap is because of Cherington's strategy so far of signing guys to short contracts at high AAV. It leads to precisely this situation, where they can go over in a pretty significant way in one year without drowning their future. Of course, this is leaving aside some roster issues ... they can't keep everyone this year even leaving aside payroll. Hanley Ramirez could easily be plugged into 1B.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 24, 2014 8:47:59 GMT -5
I have to believe the Red Sox already have a trade in place as a contingency. Otherwise they are shopping a ton of outfielders around without a lot of leverage.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 21, 2014 9:08:02 GMT -5
With all numbers being roughly equal, I have a hard time believing Panda won't go back to SF
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 21, 2014 8:57:57 GMT -5
I don't think Castillo will have the plate discipline to leadoff based on reports I've read when he signed. But overall it's kind of hard to predict what kind of numbers he will put up as a rookie, so maybe he could. I figured he'd be good for something like .270/.320/.420 which isn't quite leadoff material, but it's a solid #7 hitter in this day and age.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 20, 2014 10:47:17 GMT -5
Just to be clear: in a vacuum (i.e., with no consideration of scarcity or the presence of anyone ahead of them), would you prefer Hassan or Britton? Britton has a bit more prospect pedigree. He does carry risk though due to his inconsistency on (and off the field). I think it's just a ceiling vs. floor argument, Sox chose to keep a guy who had a bit more upside even through wild inconsistencies. Hassan - they basically already know what he is. He really only has one thing going for him (OBP). He's a Quad A type which are dime a dozen throughout the minors. He could very well not look terrible in a platoon role in Oakland, but it's nothing to lose sleep over. In a vacuum - you could argue either way. Right now for the Red Sox - I think they want one more look at Britton in spring training cause he could slot into a role.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 19, 2014 21:23:42 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 19, 2014 15:27:23 GMT -5
on WMB - I hate to question the work ethic of a guy I do not know. But it is a common thing for an athlete to have lots of success very early on and think he's "made it" and then not put in the effort to maintain his status. The constant calf and hamstring problems indicate poor training, diet, workout regimen + who knows with the whole J Dell thing. The wrist injury was and still could be a very legitimate thing. One could argue Nomar was never really the same after the wrist injury. But something was extremely wrong during all of 2014 with Will. He did not look hurt, he looked severely over-matched.
Is 2015 WMB's last option year? Correct me if I'm wrong but his stint in the minors in 2014 - wasn't that all technically on rehab and he did not burn an option? Options are always the most confusing thing for me, can anyone shed light on if 2015 is indeed his last option year?
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 19, 2014 13:09:03 GMT -5
So if Sox make an external move at 3B who gets the majority of reps at 3B in AAA? Does Cecchini move to the OF full time? Do they move them both around at DH and 1B?
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 19, 2014 12:22:47 GMT -5
Wouldn't surprise me a bit if he got 300 big leagues at bats next year and has a similar ops to Yoenis Cespedes. Welcome to the site. I can easily see him being moved right onto Oakland's 25-man roster. He's exactly the kind of player they'd find a platoon role for as others have pointed out. In the right setting he could be quite productive. Oakland may be that right setting. The A's signing of Billy Butler muddles that picture a bit.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 18, 2014 8:40:25 GMT -5
A few reports are the Yankees are now in on Scherzer which means where there's smoke there's fire. Wouldn't be surprised if they now jump in on Lester too.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 18, 2014 8:35:40 GMT -5
Would I be correct in assuming A's were pretty far down the waiver wire? That means a lot of teams passed on Hassan for him to be snatched by the A's.
Also, seeing as the Red Sox didn't even see him as a catcher anymore, it is a bit perplexing that Lavarnway wasn't the first to be waived.
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