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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 20, 2021 22:37:35 GMT -5
With baseball economics, I'm guessing pretty much nobody is going to opt out any time soon. We'll have Xander for the length of his contract which is a good thing. Before 2018 I said JD Martinez would be with the Red Sox the whole five years ($19.35 million per year the last two years of the contract is way more than any Pure DH would be offered). I meant he would not opt-out. Ivan see the Red Sox trading him at the deadline, but the $19.35 million for next year is a problem as I still do not see him exercising the opt-out. With JD gone after 2021 or 2022, I see Devers or Bogaerts (if a SS is signed, traded for, or Downs emerges) moving to DH. If JD hits like the 2015-2019 Jd 19.35$M is just fine. It’s a lot of money but not realy overpaying. It’s 10M$ les than Stanton. And reasonable for an Elite hitter. It’s worth noting MLb.com still rates JD as a too 100 player in all of baseball. On top of that the Sox got a fair bit of surplus value those first couple years. It’s posible Devers moves to DH but I’d say unlikely. He is only 24 years old. Although he makes a fair amount of mistakes he is hardly a butcher at 3B. I’d say he is 2 poor seasons at 3B ( by witch time he may be more than adequate. Don’t forget In 2019’he was a good fielder ) before even considering a move. And that would probably be to 1B. The is zero chance Boegarts is moved to full time DH in the foreseeable future. Baring some type of injury he will be in the field for many years. Maybe not at SS. But in the field.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 20, 2021 19:54:56 GMT -5
I can see a 6 man rotation at times but to commit to that long term is crazy. As we have saw in other sports and last year there may be postponed games. Just crazy to commit to the extra rest when it may come naturally. I’m ok with starting with 6. And using extra starters on double headers and such. But I want my best guys out there every 5/6 day. There are times it may make sense, but not as a rule.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 19, 2021 21:50:37 GMT -5
Not to change the subject but I don’t buy one second into the Jays. Not saying they will be bad but that pitching staff has piles of questions.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 19, 2021 21:45:22 GMT -5
Maybe JBJ is proud of what he’s achieved — WS, All Star, Gold Glove, excellent year last year — looks at what guys with bigger question marks are getting and says “I won’t settle?” Maybe it is partly a principle thing. Good for him. I hope he gets paid even if it means we lose him. Agree... I hope JBJ does well but he has to be nervous right now Anxious maybe. Not nervous. He’s the guy who signed Boras. This is part of that. It’s not like Bradley is out of work or anything. Just a matter of when to play his hand.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 19, 2021 21:40:16 GMT -5
The whole SS future in MLB is up in the air until after next years FA field. That said I’m not sure the Sox sign any of them. I probably see X opting out (unless the contract is redone before that time. And I think that is fairly probable). I’d also say X long term is probably not a great option defensively.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 23:18:13 GMT -5
As today is the official start with pitchers and catchers reporting, I think we need a general thread for spring training. I just got home from the fort and not sure if I’ll be able to get back down there but I’d love for anybody to share pictures and stories. Does anybody know if there letting people into practices yet? I know games they are selling about 2400 tickets
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 23:13:39 GMT -5
NYY: 1 55, 3 50s, 3 45+s, and I think I count 7 45s. Compare to Sox 2 50s, 3 45+s, 5 45s. Pick 4 should instantly give us another 50. One would think the likes of Leiter, Rocker and probably a few more like Lawlar and Fabian will instantly be 50-55. That saying there is now saying Sox end up with any of them. One would think though that the FO will go with the highest that they have ranked. Regardless of signing cost. They have biult some depth. It’s time to add to the top of the list. Hopefully the round 2 pick will be good aswell
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 22:59:23 GMT -5
CBT question: I’m sure Padres are insuring Tatis’ contract against injury, limiting cash based risk. However, God forbid he had a career ending injury in year 1 of the 14 year deal, does his AAV still count against CBT for the next 14 years? Just trying to gauge the risk. I know Pedroia is still counting against, so had me thinking. I don't see why it wouldn't. Contract is guaranteed. I highly dout this will ever be a concern of the Padres. And yet a lot can happen in 14 years. I’m further going to go out on a limb and say Tatis will be traded well before the end of this deal.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 22:24:22 GMT -5
Dee Gordon hit 18 homers in a 10 year career, not sure it is applicable. The larger point is I don't think he has to show that to be valuable. Even Ellsbury only had 1 prodigious power year. I am pretty high on his athleticism making a mark on the club. The highest wRC+ for a MLB hitter in 2019 (using b/c last full year) with single-digit home runs is 98 - in other words, a shade below average. Next highest were 91 and 83, below average and well-below average. It is very hard to be an average MLB hitter with that little power. Even using your Ellsbury example, he was actually an above-average hitter using wRC+ (taking it literally as 101 = above average) in just 4 of his 8 MLB seasons with at least 500 PA. 2 of those were the two years he topped 10 home runs. Honestly, he wasn't nearly the offensive player many of us (raises hand) remember him as now that I look at the numbers. Early in his career he was slightly below average offensively, making up for it with his defense, then he had a four-year stretch where he was an MVP candidate in 2011, hurt for half of 2012, and very good in 2013 and 2014. Then he turned back into a pumpkin. Dee Gordon may have only hit 18. But the one he hit on September 26 2016 is one of my favourite moments in all baseball history. Not because of its distance or meaning in the game but it’s meaning in life. An uncertain outcome, honouring a friend, bringing the Game to a level that we can all relate to. RIP 16. And thanx Dee Gordon Strange for giving us that great moment in human history.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 18:02:05 GMT -5
Side-armer (or "Low three-quarters") Rays have really valued this and been successful finding pitchers(mostly relievers) . Not necessarily side winders, but having all types of different pitchers. Also, listening to Coras interview today, he clearly mentioned the pitchers and how the team all types of pitchers that throw all types of pitches. Obviously they see something. No harm in bringing him in. See what you have in next couple weeks. Good chance more C19 and or DL stints to come.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 16:13:05 GMT -5
Is it ever nice to see all Those 45s. Pretty sure 15 months ago we only had 5 or so. Maybe only casis to be honest.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 16:10:32 GMT -5
Great interview with Sale. Access it on mlb or Red Sox.com. Sounds like the neck issue is behind him and he’s real excited.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 0:37:52 GMT -5
Agreed, I'm trying to think about how to calibrate for Tatis. At a minimum, we should strip out his last pre-arb year and call it 1 year at 1M followed by 339 for 13 years. So that would put him at 26M per year, which would put him at the 20th highest salary in 2021. For reference, 14 years ago the 20th highest AAV was 14 million - today that AAV is now the 80th highest. So expect Tatis to drift about 5 spots per year from 20th highest paid to 80th highest paid. That should be good value for the Padres if he stays healthy, in shape, and productive. To your point even if he is not productive in his last 3 seasons (Age 32, 33, 34; all ages where he could still plausibly be a very very good player), he’s probably making $30M cash in each of those three years on the backend which by then won’t be a substantial sum (presumably). I don’t really see this becoming an albatross contract by any means, barring something crazy. I highly dout the Padres will be paying those salaries
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 17, 2021 16:53:38 GMT -5
No my point was he over values himself and ran off the cpl teams that could have offered long term deals to him. Id take him back on a 1yr @8 but his ego wouldn't let him take that. Look, we're going to go back and forth on this and it doesn't feel like we're ever going to get to an agreement. Where I think we can agree is that (1) JBJ is seeking a deal in the 3-4 year range within the 10-15M per year range and (2) teams have not met those terms. If JBJ is willing to risk it and hold out longer to see if teams end up budging, that's his right. He might be more willing to take the risk than say someone else who wanted to lock in early. I look at this like the Gamestop situation. Some folks who were more risk-averse might have sold as it got to $200 to lock in a win. Others who are more risk-tolerant held, some got lucky and sold at $300 while others didn't pull the plug quick enough and are now holding a $50 stock. Your opinion is that JBJ is going to get stuck with the $50 stock, others believe that he still has a chance at that $300 stock. Let's not waste our time debating uncertainty. You might end up being right, but at this point we just don't know with any certainty which is right. $45.62
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 17, 2021 16:50:42 GMT -5
This is not correct. Juan Lagares was named the MVP. If he continues to hit like that, we should be able to carry his glove in CF I love the prospect of Duran, but Im wondering why everybody is trying to push him into CF. Verdugo (although he sometimes takes a bad route) is more than adequate in CF. his range is at least average and he has a strong arm, much stronger than Duran. If not saying this is the long term answer, but I guarantee Verdugos defense in CF will not be the Sox biggest issue. Starting Duran in LF would take alot of pressure off of him.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 17, 2021 15:52:43 GMT -5
One has to figure Hernandez will fall somewhere between Ward at 9 and Bonaci at 14
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 17, 2021 13:25:01 GMT -5
I don't know, if things go completely sideways in your life a guaranteed $100,000-$200,000 year is a pretty nice fall back. Yeah. I guess for 99.9% of the world it is kind of inconceivable. $25,000,000 for a pro athlete is less than one might think. Sure it’s still a lot of $. But take your agent fees and high unsheltered tax and you are to half. Factor in that all you have done is play this game. These guys don’t always have a fallback or second option. You also have a second home to pay for. Then comes the expectation of being a pro athlete. This comes with spending money. Whether it’s buying tickets for friends, rounds of drinks( except For Manny), gifts for family or a new cars, boats and other toys or a house for you parents. I’m not saying that I feel sorry for athletes. Sure they are payed lots of money. In fact probably grossly overpaid. But for you average pro athlete they don’t end up with as much cash at the end of a career than many people believe.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 17, 2021 2:34:16 GMT -5
The one guy who actually watched Duran at the ATF and then responded publically was the manager McMillon, himself an outfielder in his playing days. He was very impressed with the hitting - everyone was. On the other hand he sounded like he was auditioning for the State Department when asked about the fielding. He did make it easy to read between the lines, though. Duran is not an above average fielder, not right now anyway. I do not know where Law got his report, but I've got to trust the eyeballs of record on this, and that's McMillon. We are all hoping Duran can make the jump sometime this season. Maybe it’s best he start in LF. Verdugo is more than capable of playing CF. And from what I can see Cordero and Renfroe should both be able to handle RF.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 17, 2021 2:08:32 GMT -5
So presumably Marwin signs when they can IL Sale. Do you know when is the earliest that can happen? I’m pretty sure tomorrow. First day of reporting.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 16, 2021 23:24:20 GMT -5
Just looking at the 40 man. And the top prospects. Is it ever nice to see depth again. The 40 man is Almost to the point where it may be a surprise veteran cut making room for the next addition. I’m not all the high on bazardo Potts or Wilson, but each is still a viable prospect that could add MLB depth at some point.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 16, 2021 23:03:29 GMT -5
So were Bryce Harper and Manny Machado this time two years ago. So jbj is in the same book as machado and harper? In relative I would say so. I think all experts expected JBJ to be 2/3 years at 7-10M$. No reason to think he won’t be in there somewhere.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 16, 2021 22:59:03 GMT -5
Would be nice to grab one of these guys on a minor league deal. Not sure if possible.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 15, 2021 23:22:36 GMT -5
5$ Plus an option for pillar. JBJ still should get 3/27
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 15, 2021 20:47:07 GMT -5
Pillar to Mets surely ends there interest in JBJ
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 15, 2021 16:42:56 GMT -5
I don't know that we're going to see true platoons with this roster. There are too many permutations given the flexibility of the guys they've signed. I don't even think it's as simple as a Cordero/Gonzalez platoon enabled by Hernandez going back and forth to the outfield. I think it's going to be a lot of playing match-ups, factoring in way more than pitcher handedness. Repertoire, the pitcher the Red Sox have on the mound, etc. At any rate, here's what the primary starting lineup would look like, per RSS. Chris once again had it basically dead on. This will be a rotating lineup. What is very interesting in these optimmized lineups is KIKI batting 3? I have no stats to back it, but I have this feeling that he is going to break out In a big way. I also see him playing mostly 2B
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