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Post by jbuttah on May 25, 2018 10:57:12 GMT -5
One thing that confuses me. If he gets his plate apearances with another team...Does that mean the option can still Vest with us on the hook? Or did it have to be with the Red Sox? Great question and I don't know the answer. I tried to look at the CBA and couldn't figure it out from that. I might try again now that this actually happened. Gotta trust DD on this one. There's no way they'd have DFA'd Ramirez if there was a chance someone could pick him up on waivers and give him enough ABs to get the option to vest if the Sox would be on the hook for 2019.
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Post by jbuttah on May 25, 2018 10:27:29 GMT -5
Question for me is whether Cora was in on the decision or not.
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Post by jbuttah on May 24, 2018 21:21:14 GMT -5
Hanley's just guessing up there - but I'll bet he STILL bats third tomorrow, STILL over Moreland against a righthanded starting pitcher. DD needs to have a conversation with Cora if this continues. At this rate, HR's option will kick in by August. The only thing I can think of is that Moreland (and Holt) have some injury we don't know about.
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Post by jbuttah on May 23, 2018 12:58:27 GMT -5
Exactly, and apparently some modeling supports this, at least according to the Wharton guys. It's interesting strategy although I wonder what you do if the middle reliever struggles facing the top of the order and can't complete the inning. Do you burn out two relievers before you start fresh with a starter? Would teams counter the reliever starting by moving their best hitters to 4-5-6-7 instead of 1-2-3-4 or something like that? Doubtful, but you wonder how this kind of thing would be countered or if they'd even want to or try to counter this strategy. So I guess Joe Kelly can be a starter after all! If the Sox were to try this strategy, I'd think someone like Steve Wright would be the perfect candidate.
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Post by jbuttah on May 23, 2018 10:22:06 GMT -5
Listening to thr Wharton Moneyball guys today on Sirius (podcast available of each episode, as well). Said this year so far, teams scoring first have 71.2% chance of winning the game. They were also talking about opening the games with your best set-up men THEN going to you starter in 2nd inning. Interesting all around. Jerry and Dave were talking about this during last night's game. TB started the same reliever to pitch just the 1st inning 2 days in a row. I believe the thinking is that would give the "starting" pitcher a better chance to go deeper into games if they don't have to face the best hitters 3rd time through the lineup until after 24 outs (versus 18 if they actually start the game).
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Post by jbuttah on May 15, 2018 23:20:12 GMT -5
Sheesh. The hot take machine keeps pumping. It's not a hot take. What part of what I said isn't true? If anything, it seems like a slightly optimistic view. Besides Sale, no other starter seems consistently able to go past 5 innings. Porcello every now and then maybe. I'd describe AnyCatcher, Nunez and Bradly as super massive black holes. So now you have to play a barely adequate at Fenway, Martinez in the field and keep giving at bats to a regular black hole in Ramirez, who at this rate will be on the team next year. For all the resources DD has put into the next 2 years, this team has alot of holes and is no match for Astros/Yankees. There in a position where they have to hope to get help from unexpected sources, like Beeks or Shawaryn being a solid starter as soon as this year. Or like Kelly being converted back to starting. Not a good place to be.
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Post by jbuttah on May 15, 2018 22:08:34 GMT -5
Betts, Bogaerts, Moreland, Martinez, Benintendi, Ramirez, Devers, Catcher, Holt
MAKE IT HAPPEN!
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Post by jbuttah on May 15, 2018 20:34:30 GMT -5
Listening to guests in the booth is bad enough, do they have to constantly show them on the screen too? Just learned 2 things: Holt should be at 2B and Lenny Clark likes to swim.
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Post by jbuttah on May 15, 2018 20:31:53 GMT -5
Listening to guests in the booth is bad enough, do they have to constantly show them on the screen too?
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Post by jbuttah on May 15, 2018 20:25:42 GMT -5
I don't think I have the patience tonight to watch this stuff. The base running error was really egregious. I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that Benintendi's not great at the fundamentals.
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Post by jbuttah on May 11, 2018 7:59:41 GMT -5
Also, the Yankees have played 6 more home games than the Sox. It is time to end the Hembree as anything more than a back of the bullpen arm experiment. His fastball is straight and he has no command of his offspeed pitches.
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Post by jbuttah on May 9, 2018 19:47:09 GMT -5
Hanley regressing.....stinks....he was doing so good. Hope, Cora starts reducing his AB's. His option cannot be picked up for next year.
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Post by jbuttah on May 4, 2018 11:36:48 GMT -5
There is no way Price is opting out fellas. Never really thought he was. Even if he was pitching good, pitching with a "magic elbow" is surely something that would scare teams off and they certainly wouldn't top what he has left with the Sox. A top notch Price is a difference maker. That's who he was most of his career and toward the end of last year and beginning of this season. It's weird how he can go from dominant to getting hit hard. I hope the Price the Sox get is better than the up and down guy they had in 2016. I'd like to chalk last night up to the Rangers always eat his lunch, but who knows? I hope it's a mechanical thing and not a health issue. It's almost like his run of excellence stopped with that finger numbness he had against the Yankees - which is probably a coincidence. Still can't believe DD signed Price to that monstrosity of a contract. There's a better chance he'll retire before the contracts up then there is he'll opt out. Just hope he doesn't make the same mistake with Sale (sign a high usage older pitcher to a lengthy expensive contract).
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Post by jbuttah on Apr 20, 2018 22:09:52 GMT -5
I don't really see a problem with the way the Sox and Cora are managing Drew. If he has to take a lump or 2 to get back in it, so be it. He is big part of this team's plan for success this year. Not sure what more starts in the minors is going to accomplish. He needs to be doing it with the big boys. Build up arm strength?
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Post by jbuttah on Apr 20, 2018 21:54:31 GMT -5
He looks like he's lowered his hands and is much more quiet in the box before he swings.
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Post by jbuttah on Apr 20, 2018 21:45:05 GMT -5
Lucky he didn't swing at that meatball.
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Post by jbuttah on Apr 20, 2018 21:42:10 GMT -5
Really don't understand the big rush to get Pomeranz up. He can't be effective with an 88mph fastball. He's not a control artist.
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Post by jbuttah on Apr 20, 2018 21:40:45 GMT -5
Wow, on replace totally thought it was a HR>
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Post by jbuttah on Feb 12, 2018 9:40:51 GMT -5
I'm going with C.J. Chatham based on draft status and health.
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Post by jbuttah on Nov 15, 2017 20:24:33 GMT -5
I wonder if there's some kind of Ohtani motive parked in there somewhere. I realize it is mentioned, but seems like a crappy way to get money back. Doubtful. Again, given the amount of money he's giving up to come over two years early, $3M won't make much of a difference. You could also argue though that since he is giving up so much, every little bit he can get now means that much more.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 27, 2017 9:10:54 GMT -5
What's request 1st language for this Red Sox team as communication methods? I don't recognize the language that this sentence is in. It's a Russian bot.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 26, 2017 13:54:40 GMT -5
For anyone hoping for Mike Maddux as pitching coach, looks like he is going to the Cardinals, per Rosenthal. I'm all in on Hickey, if only because of his prior experience working with Price.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 16, 2017 13:34:50 GMT -5
So, the four elite 1B at the plate are Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, and Anthony Rizzo. There's a pretty good argument that a Justin Bour / Hanley Ramirez platoon would be the next best thing. Bour is a career 130 wRC+ vs. RHP (131 the last 3 years). Hanley is 136 career vs. LHP, and if you apply his career split to his overall 2016 numbers, you get 137 (he was actually 186 -- single season numbers vs. LHP are never meaningful). He's 115 the last 3 years, which might be the lower limit of his true performance if he's hurt a lot again. Now, in my Baseball Dictionary, Ryan Howard's picture is next to the entry for "LOOGY bait." But I understand the publishers are contemplating putting Bour's picture there in the next edition. He has a career 85 wRC+ vs. LHP in low and medium leverage, and 72 in high leverage. His leverage splits vs. RHP, in big samples, are 124 low, 132 medium, 151 high. You negate a lot of his value by not having a LHR-killing platoon partner who is sitting on the bench as a potential pinch-hitter in the late innings. I say "potential" pinch hitter because bringing in a LHR with a big split to face Bour with (G-d willing) J.D. Martinez on deck (168 wRC+ vs. LHP since his transformation) is a terrible move. When Hanley pinch-hits, it's a worse matchup, and then you have to yank the LHR. If you go Bogaerts - Betts - Bour - Martinez, Bour will see almost no LHR late and close. But that lineup continues Benintendi - Vazquez - Devers - LHB 2B - Bradley. That's LOOGY bait at the bottom. (With 5 LHB in the lineup, it's going to be hard to avoid some such stretch). But Devers hits LHP just fine (the sample size of 1 PA vs. Chapman actually attests to that, but including his postseason HR he's .412 / .483 / .667 in 48 PA), so if you have a second RH pinch-hitter on the bench, you render a LOOGY against the trio pointless, since JBJ has a 111 / 102 split against them the last 3 years. As long as Pedey is on the DL and Hernandez (or Lin) and Holt are sharing 2B, you have a very useful spot on the bench for Brentz. Benintendi has struggled against LHP (118 vs. 60), so if Brentz hits MLB LHP as projected, there will be LHR-Benny matchups where you want Brentz hitting, too. And when Leon or Swihart is catching, you might ant to go Benintendi - Betts - Bour - Martinez - Devers - Bogaerts - Bradley - C - 2B. Now you invite a LOOGY to face the 2B/ Benny combo, but, again, you can minimize that if you have a second lefty-killer on the bench. Like I said, any good lineup with 5 LHB will have its LOOGY-bait spot, and that's why you want two dangerous RHB on the bench. A platoon would also be a good way of keeping Ramirez's option from vesting, but don't know if he would accept it without becoming a clubhouse cancer. Any way they go, I don't think DD let's this option vest.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 14, 2017 10:00:12 GMT -5
Last I heard, the manager decides which players play. JF's loyalty to Chris Young even as he burnt to toast before our eyes was evident to all. GMs do not acquire players without consulting their manager, so we know the conversation about Brentz's use, should he be added to the roster, happened. Which is to say, the manager has tremendous input into the September additions. The hypothesis that JF told DDo that Brentz would not take any playing time away from Young is 100% credible. If that happened, then the logical thing for DDo to do is not to add Brentz. I mean, if I'm in DDo's position, I try to talk JF into using Brentz over Young, and presumably JF tells me he can't do that because he does think Young will hit, and giving him a chance is important to the clubhouse. I say, OK, you're the manager, and when I get off the phone, I'm thinking, you'd better win the WS or you may be out of your job. I doubt that Farrell's job security hinged on whether or not he added a 31st guy to the roster. At most, people are bringing up Brentz as a data point in the rumors that DD and JF butting heads was a big reason JF was let go.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 11, 2017 13:01:48 GMT -5
The Red Sox couldn't bring Farrell back, he would've lacked the job security this team needs from its manager in order to properly utilize the roster for next season. The biggest challenge they face is devising a plan to keep Sale and Pomeranz effective into October, as well as keeping Price (and hopefully Rodriguez) healthy throughout the season. If the plan is to give these guys all the starts they can handle, and to let each individual outing's performance dictate how long they'll stay in the game, I see no reason to expect significantly better versions of Sale and Pomeranz entering next postseason. Yes, you have to get there first, but this team won't win in the postseason if they can't the normal versions of their best pitchers. They have a track record of hitting a wall late in the season. I'm not sure what plan is best for the rotation, but I'd like to see them try something different. I'd be ok with trying a six man rotation the first couple months of the season, or planning skipped starts every so often, or planning for certain starts to be less than 5 innings or under a certain amount of pitches. The point is I'd be open to trying anything new, because I don't think the most effective way to utilize the rotation next season is to treat them all like workhorses throughout the season and give them everything they can handle until they simply wear down and decline in command or stuff/velocity. I'd also like to see the new manager use Kimbrel in high leverage non-save situations from time to time, not just because it'll be the right baseball decision, but to give him more experience in situations that might not feel comfortable to him at this time. Inevitably he'll have to enter a big game with runners on, or a tied game, and I don't think they should wait until it's a game that matters the most. This desire isn't just because he blew the last game, it seems like situations outside of the traditional save have given him more trouble than they should considering how great the guy is. What could've been. Think many here would've loved to have Friedman as GM. fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-dodgers-are-using-baseballs-new-dl-rules-to-get-an-edge/
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