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Post by 07redsox on Feb 9, 2023 13:50:38 GMT -5
The numbers here are how many wins better I think they'll be this year relative to last in each category, so this is starting from a baseline of 78 wins:
Schedule: +1. A bunch of games again the AL East get replaced with a bunch of games against the NL. 24, to be exact. The Red Sox have always done real well against the NL so maybe there's upside here (though not if their advantage was just a product of having excellent DH's in years when NL teams had none). There's also upside if you think their horrible record against AL East teams last year was not just coincidental (but I think it probably was).
Baserunning: +1. Fangraphs' BSR had them at -11.5 last year, 4th-worst in the majors. I don't think they'll actually be a good baserunning team this year, but they've lost their two worst offenders from last season (Vazquez and JDM) and simply getting to a little below average should be worth about a win.
Defense: +1. Last year they were 22nd in the majors in OAA at -11, 23rd by DRS (-4), and 25th by UZR (-14). A lot of that had to do with guys playing out of position (Arroyo in RF, Cordero at 1B), which is some low-hanging fruit to improve with the roster they've built. The defense should be very solid up the middle, and whenever Mondesi/Story are able to contribute it could be downright great if it moves Kiké to CF and Duvall to RF. But again, I'm only projecting improvement to the average range.
Offense: +1. This one seems like the toughest to project. Last year they were 12th in the majors with a 102 wRC+. I'm tempted to just throw up my hands by projecting them to be the same in 2023. But here's why I'm projecting a slight improvement: last year they had 637 PAs that went to guys with a 63 wRC+ or worse. Collectively it was the equivalent of a full-season starter with like a 45 wRC+. What's crazy is, simply bringing these PAs up to about an 80 wRC+ overall would be enough to fully replace the loss of Bogaerts! And that's before factoring in the addition of Yoshida, some improvement from Kiké (75 wRC+ in 402 PAs last year), and the upgrade from Dalbec to Casas. There is a lot of upside potential here; in fact ZiPS projects better than average offense from everyone on the major league roster other than McGuire and Mondesi). But I'm keeping the projection conservative because there's downside risk here too, as everyone knows (Yoshida and Casas are unproven; Turner is old; Duvall and Kiké are old-ish; god help this lineup if Devers gets hurt).
Starting pitching: +3. I might be more bullish than some on this. Last year they were 19th in the majors with a 4.19 FIP, and 18th with 8.6 WAR. They lost Eovaldi, Hill, and Wacha, who combined for 4.3 WAR in 361 IP. But they're essentially replacing them with Sale, Paxton, and Kluber, and I'll take the over on those guys hitting 4.3 combined. Beyond that they have Whitlock and Bello, who were their two best starters last season by FIP (min. 20 IP) but combined for only 91 IP last season. Simply getting those guys up to 200 IP combined would add 2 WAR if they pitch as well as they did last year. And they should have the depth to avoid the Winckowski/Seabold tier of break-glass-in-case-of-emergency starters (those two combined for -0.3 WAR in 86 IP). Plus it would be hard for their SP health to be worse in 2023. As with the defense, the projected improvement here basically gets them to league average.
Bullpen: +3. Last year they were 4th-worst in the majors with 1.2 WAR, 9th-worst with a 4.14 FIP. They've invested big here and on paper they should have a top-ten bullpen. But who the hell ever knows with relievers. If they get 3 extra wins out of this group that would put them at 4.2 WAR, which would have been 12th in the majors last year. The upside here is something that a lot of you should believe in, because you went on and on last season about how the bullpen was costing them a ton of wins, maybe like 5-10; yet oddly, none of those same people have been vocally enthusiastic about this bullpen overhaul... There are in fact reasons to think bullpens matter more than WAR implies, so maybe a solid bullpen will steady this team more than I'm anticipating. The downside is that they're relief pitchers and any one of them could stink and it wouldn't be shocking.
Total: +10, so 88-74, with a slightly above average offense and bullpen, and otherwise average production across the board, bolstered especially by solid depth that should prevent some of the really egregious sub-replacement performances that have hamstrung them the last few seasons. As always, for people who disagree I'm curious to hear specifically where you think I'm going wrong.
thoughtful post, give credit there. The first point of the baseline wins caught my attention right away. If you are using last years 78 wins as the starting point, and that is based on last years win total, it would seem to me that would be a lowball. You, and others, have made points about last years incredibly unlucky health losing wins from that team. If we accept that premise, and you figured they lost 6 wins on health last year, you are now calling this a 94 win team by these measures, which a real stretch. I’m not sure that’s necessarily 100% accurate though. The way I see it (and I’m not entirely sure that this is true or not, just the way I am reading these projections) is that the bad injury luck is what contributed to some of the bad outcomes (like the horrible wRC+ from some players and the bad defense in certain positions). With the depth that was created, it appears they found a way to avoid that from happening again and at least providing average production all the way around (even if injuries occur). By. using the 78 win, you are inherently using the bad injury luck like you stated. However, that is the whole point of using the numbers as described from that season. It doesn’t matter if they have amazing or just average injury luck this year, the improvement is being shown in the raw numbers in terms of pitching, hitting and defense. If the belief is that they will have better numbers as last year, then a change in luck doesn’t really matter if that is already being assumed to be at least average overall (which I think that it is). May be completely wrong though...my mind is just waiting for work to be over anyway so may not be working correctly!
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 29, 2023 8:14:08 GMT -5
Six man rotations have been talked about by fans for years but they don't happen. I'm also not convinced that Sale and maybe Paxton are going to want to be babied or that it's even necessary. Haven’t the Angels been using a a 6-man rotation for years now because of Ohtani? Not 100% sure, just something I have heard a few times. Even in discussions about his impending free agency this offseason, I have heard talk about which teams that pursue him could/would be able to use a 6-man rotation.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 26, 2023 11:17:08 GMT -5
Really holding out hope that maybe we try and swing a trade for Brendan Rogers, feel like he can realistically be available for the right price and he is a perfect fit Right handed bat that we can slide into the 2 hole. Can take over at SS in 2024 to give Mayer time, and can trade him in the 2024 off-season if all goes well Yoshida Rogers Devers Turner Casas Hernandez Verdugo That’s a way more extended and balanced lineup. I think he can be available because he isn’t a star, is already in arb, and the Rockies aren’t exactly looking competitive these next two years. How does adding Rodgers change anything though? What we have already is similar in terms of productivity. A couple posts ago you said it’s not a deep and extended lineup. Do you really think adding Rodgers takes it from that to a “much more extended and balanced lineup”? Not sure I see how it does that. I’d rather just have Arroyo play.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 20, 2023 21:18:31 GMT -5
I hate to be that guy, but this was a REALLY weak year for hitters, he won the batting title with a .316 AVG which was actually his second worse season lol. I think the Twins got the better end of the trade even if it was a 1 for 1 with Lopez, but with prospects involved then geez. Hitting. 316 when the average hitter is struggling to hit .240 is impressive. In a normal year where guys are hitting closer to .260 that .316 is .330. The guy has a minor league track record of hitting well over .300 and has continued that well into the majors. I think if he stays healthy that hit tool will sustain him but I can understand why others see otherwise. Definitely agree with this! The issue I see though is that there isn’t much room for Arraez to get better. He’s not going to get faster or suddenly become a much better defender. Maybe he gets a little more power over time, but he already has almost none anyway. Essentially the best he can do is just continue to hit for a high average. Not sure I see the upside in terms of increased production from what he has already done. Lopez still has potential to get better with more experience in my opinion.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 20, 2023 19:53:34 GMT -5
Alright maybe ripped off is too strong a description. Lopez is a decent/good pitcher, the SS prospect didnt have great numbers but was playing against older competition and their lottery ticket tore up the DSL but who knows what that amounts to? Arraez is basically a 1 tool player, but it's the most important offensive tool and he can hit as well as anybody in the game but I guess I need to acknowledge that he has little power, doesnt walk a ton, and is not a good defensive 2b. That said, I think his hit tool will hold up well and the Marlins will get a guy who might hit .330 if offenses open up and improve a bit, which is why I still think it's a good deal for the Marlins and why I'm not wild about it from the Twins perspective. I believe the hit tool holds up and with pitchers it can be hard to know what to expect but Lopez isnt going to a bandbox facing AL East teams that often so I guess he'll be alright. This is out of my realm a bit, but I think the Marlins got fleeced. Not sold on Arraez (we'll see how the BA holds, no power, no real speed) and the Twins get Lopez and the Marlins #5 prospect back (along with another prospect). At the VERY LEAST, it's a pretty even trade. Agreed. Lopez is already a 3/4 I feel and only 26 years old. In that stadium and division I think he may even have another level in him this season. I like Arraez quite a bit, but the fact that the Twins got prospects as well is stunning to me.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 20, 2023 17:18:11 GMT -5
That’s not what I expected to hear. Figured they would move him to SS (he’s said he wants to play SS) with Segura at 2B. Does this mean they actually plan to play Segura at SS like I believe they have previously said? If so, not sure that’s the best idea...
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 20, 2023 12:44:10 GMT -5
Except there was no discussion of signing him. It was almost universally people say no thanks. I think one person said they would. This type of back and forth is making this site miserable to come to sometimes now. People are allowed to be upset about this off-season. But guess what, people are also allowed to be excited and/or willing to wait until the final product is put together. That doesn’t make someone a “bootlicker”. The level of conversation on this site has sadly gone down over the past year or so, and this whole back and forth is unfortunately one giant advertisement of that. I don't understand this sentiment either. I'm not DISALLOWING you to be excited, I made a one line joke about the current state of affairs the way I see it. I don't like where this franchise is going and it's pretty obvious why. You look at this roster and you're excited, I look at this roster and see JAGs everywhere. I get that I'm too negative and I'm sorry, I didn't want to make things miserable lol. But being excessively and blindly optimistic isn't fantastic either. This response is exactly what I’m saying. I never said I had any problem with your original post did I? Like I said before, people are allowed to feel however they want about the team. It’s the back and forth that comes after with the sarcastic comments from other posters after your initial comment and then the “Bootlick harder” comment that literally accomplishes nothing. I also never said I was excited about the roster. Not sure how my comment says anything about my perception of the team. I literally said you can be happy, sad, indifferent, whatever. The point is that the needless back and forth with nothing to add just clogs up the site and makes it that much harder to get through well thought out posts, whether it is for or against the current iteration of the team. Adding an edit just to make sure you know I am not talking about you specifically with my comments because I’m not sure that is coming across fully. It was just the latest comment in the string/discussion and I am comment every comment involved. If it came across that way I apologize.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 20, 2023 12:14:04 GMT -5
What about my post was directed to the front office? I was calling you out for complaining about the Sox not signing Chapman. Again, nobody is forcing you to watch this "ass" team. In fact, why are you even wasting your time on a Sox forum? Brother I can be many things in this life, but I will NEVER advocate signing someone who abuses women. Read my post again, I wasn't complaining about not signing Chapman, I was being ironic towards the discussion of signing him. Wait, you know what the Opening Day roster is already? Your sources must be pretty high-ranking, do you mind summarizing any surprising additions/omissions? Your analysis of it was so well thought-out that I'm sure you must've spent a considerable amount of time thinking logically about it. Bootlick harder. Except there was no discussion of signing him. It was almost universally people say no thanks. I think one person said they would. This type of back and forth is making this site miserable to come to sometimes now. People are allowed to be upset about this off-season. But guess what, people are also allowed to be excited and/or willing to wait until the final product is put together. That doesn’t make someone a “bootlicker”. The level of conversation on this site has sadly gone down over the past year or so, and this whole back and forth is unfortunately one giant advertisement of that.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 8, 2023 16:13:58 GMT -5
Bellinger signed a while ago with the Cubs. I'm talking about the future. The Red Sox already have Kiké in CF for this year – Bader and Lee aren't available until next offseason, either. If that’s the case, then they would probably be better off just signing Kiké again after this season. While he is in his 30s right now, I don’t particularly see him falling off a cliff defensively right away. And I doubt it would take a huge commitment to keep him here again.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 8, 2023 15:47:36 GMT -5
JBJ is beyond washed up. Really good options for CF over the next few years are kind of limited. Yeah, it's a tough spot to fill right now. Trade targets are like Grisham and Mullins (not sure the Orioles would even entertain it, but there certainly have been rumors). FAs include Bellinger, Bader... Jung-hoo Lee if the reports say he could handle CF. Boy would it be a good time for Rafaela to prove to be even remotely competent with the bat in the MLB. Bellinger signed a while ago with the Cubs.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 4, 2023 21:01:56 GMT -5
This takes 700k off the books AAV wise for the Sox, which is what he was owed here in 2023 anyways. Is this true? I don't think the AAV comes off the books like that. Wouldn’t it have to though? From my understanding, the Sox were already paying him the minimum with the Padres still paying the rest of his contract. With the Cubs signing him they are now paying him the minimum that the Sox were paying meaning they Sox pay Hosmer nothing.. Not sure how the Sox would be on the hock for an AAV when they aren’t paying the player a dime.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 3, 2023 21:16:21 GMT -5
I'd day they range from about 90 wins down to 90 losses. Which means about a .500 team. Yes, they'll catch a bit of a break only getting beat up by their eastern opponents less often, but then again there are still a bunch of better teams that should be able to handle the Red Sox. I think pretty much everybody in the AL East is better, although you can debate Baltimore. Cleveland is better. Chicago and Minnesota are in the same tier. Houston and Seattle are better. Texas and LAA are probably in the same tier. So the Sox are clearly better than Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland. And in interleague they're going to play the NL West I believe so that's the Padres and Dodgers who are clearly better and the DBacks and Giants are in the same tier. Colorado is inferior. And I think the Sox get stuck playing a better Braves team. So I'll say the Sox are better than they were last year. I'll give them 79 wins although they could wind up with 84. Either way unless they take the 3rd wild card, I don't really see them as a playoff caliber team. I do expect a bunch of injuries. Injury prone players have injuries. It happens. They lack power and speed in the lineup. The defense has its questions. I don't think the rotation is particularly strong. Interleague doesn’t work that way anymore. I believe the changes made to the schedule mean that every team now plays at least one series against every other team, so they play each NL team once while mostly lowering the total number of inter-division matchups. That means they also get to play teams like MIA, PIT, CIN etc. which helps with the schedule quite a bit.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 28, 2022 13:14:24 GMT -5
For $10M I don't know how you can complain. Steamer has him projected to start 29 games and throw 168 innings, with an ERA of 4.45, FIP of 4.36 and xFIP of 4.37 and a 1.8 fWAR. That's a touch better than he was in NY but less than he was last year, WAR-wise. Overall he profiles as a 4 starter with some occasional #3 upside. He will be turning 37, which is a concern, but for the money, this is a solid move if he can do the above. It will be a great move if he exceeds that performance. ADDED: Looks like he'll fit right in: Not something you necessary want to see, but one good thing is that we will be facing those team much less this season than in past years. It’s not a reason to expect him to pitch significantly better this upcoming season, but definitely can’t hurt.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 27, 2022 20:08:56 GMT -5
That player option sees pointless. If he pitches 300 innings the next two years he's very likely to be able to sign for a lot more than 1/20. So basically 2/34 + maybe another 3 million total for the incentives With that option I think it makes it essentially so they couldn’t QO him, no? Or maybe they could if he declines the option, not totally sure. Also I’m interpreting it as $3m per year in incentives (if he gets to 160 ip each year he gets the max is how the tweets read to me, which also makes me wonder at what number the innings incentives start to kick in). Players can only be offered the QO once in their career.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 23, 2022 17:24:38 GMT -5
I don’t think that quote really tells us anything. Almost every player in this type of situation says they won’t sign an extension after spring training. The problem here is that it's usually true. For example, Aaron Judge didn't sign one. They played out the season and the Yankees just matched his best offer. Of course it’s true. Pretty much everyone here could of guessed that to be the case weeks ago. I guess my point is that this article/quote doesn’t change anything compared to how it was days, weeks, or months ago. They will either sign him to an extension or they wont’t. Sadly, the issue is more the lack of confidence in them actually doing it based on recent precedent. I want to say I’m decently optimistic that it will happen, but I’m not sure if that is just me lying to myself or not.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 23, 2022 17:12:19 GMT -5
I don’t think that quote really tells us anything. Almost every player in this type of situation says they won’t sign an extension after spring training.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 23, 2022 7:47:59 GMT -5
Bloom's management of player assets at this point has been a complete disaster. - Paying Yoshida $18M to be a comparable hitter to Hosmer - Letting Hosmer walk for nothing at league minimum salary - Jeter Downs leaving via waivers - Losing Ward, Song and Politi to the rule 5 draft (could be returned but still) - His trades have been bad/awful for the most part: - JBJ, Hamilton, Binelas for Renfroe - Winckowski, Cordero, Grambrell & 2 milbers for Benintendi - Verdugo, Wong & Downs for Betts - Hosmer, Rosier, & Ferguesen for Groome (w/o Hosmer what did you get? a AA .200 avg UT , and a A+ back up outfielder) Too many assets are leaving for free or little in return. Some of the assets you mention are worth almost nothing though. Did you expect them to get something for Downs? It’s one thing to criticize the actual trade that brought him to Boston, but placing Downs on waivers isn’t one of them to me. And how is Yoshida being paid to be a comparable hitter to Hosmer? If Yoshida hits in his first season like Hosmer has recently or would have hit this year then Bloom is hopefully fired at the end of the season. I have seen many people here, myself include, who are generally optimistic about Yoshida. I’d be interested in seeing how this type of list compares to other head front office figures over a similar period of time. With how unknown prospects can end up being, I would not be surprised if other teams who make trades for prospects like these end up looking similarly bad over time as well.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 22, 2022 18:55:44 GMT -5
Oh the perma-sellers have a high price tag for one year of Joey Wendle. Impressive leverage! He actually has two years of control left, but still — how high of a price can you really ask on Joey frickin Wendle?? Marlins are seriously a team stuck in an endless purgatory. Really? From what I see, I think he only has one year left. The Marlins declined an option, but it appears he has his final year of arbitration anyway now.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 21, 2022 9:39:05 GMT -5
Technically the Yankees didn’t add 12 WAR, all they really added was Rodon (plus some other smaller pieces). Not sure what you mean?
Judge was a Free Agent -- he was not part of their WAR total going into offseason.
My point is that they didn’t add 12 WAR compared to last seasons team (which was how I interpreted the original comment, may be wrong with that though) because Judge was already on the team last year. That was, at most, staying where they already were last year (and probably less so since he most likely won’t repeat those numbers). Of course talking about their WAR projection what you say is true, but I’m simply comparing it to last season. The Mets re-signed some of their players, but with all the additions of players that weren’t on the team last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they actually added 12 WAR compared to the players that these new signings are replacing (as they surely added 12+ WAR from the signings alone).
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 21, 2022 8:24:55 GMT -5
Unless you're Steve Cohen. Then it's "You want 12 WAR? I'll show you 12 WAR!" I mean, the Yankees did too with Judge and Rodon Technically the Yankees didn’t add 12 WAR, all they really added was Rodon (plus some other smaller pieces).
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 21, 2022 2:00:33 GMT -5
They got $29 million left to spend. If the only pitcher is Hill, it'll be tough to find a way to spend the rest.
I am a Nasty Nate advocate and am starting to think he's going to sign for a disappointing number. It feels bad to not take advantage of Rich Hill desperately wanting to play here though. Maybe sign them both and see what you can get for Pivetta.
29 with no Devers extension right? 13 extra for Devers extension, Hill + bench bat acquired somehow, plus room for “in season” use, but really just room to stay under the tax to reset it. I’m not 100% sure on this, but I believe his new AAV would start in 2024 if the extension began after this season and didn’t actually include this upcoming season.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 19, 2022 11:11:42 GMT -5
From Joon Lee’s article today. “Executives around the sport see the same pattern emerging with Red Sox star third baseman Rafael Devers, who will be 26 at the start of the 2023 season, his last before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2024. According to multiple league sources, the Red Sox and Devers are "galaxies apart" in their contract negotiations. The current expectation from Devers and his camp is that the third baseman will be a free agent at the end of 2023, given the current state of contract talks.” as I said in the other thread, this is all just clickbait nonsense trying to get easy clicks due to Sox fans not being happy right now... without saying what he is looking for "galaxies apart" means nothing... "galaxies apart" when Devers is looking for a 300+ million deal is one thing "galaxies apart" when he is looking for something less than 300 Million is another.. Its lazy journalism This. But also, what do these “executives around the sport” know about the negotiating going on between the Sox and Devers? They certainly aren’t in the room/on the phone during the negotiations. This just sounds like other people (just like fans) responding to what they have seen this off-season and using that to create a narrative about what is happening. Now that doesn’t mean that the Sox aren’t currently trying to lowball Devers. It’s definitely easy to see it happening based on recent history. But I wouldn’t even call articles or “reports” like these news.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 10, 2022 13:14:27 GMT -5
That guy had 100 followers and was just some rando on twitter. People gotta stop blind Rt'ing everything they see Which is hilarious considering I opened up MLB Network radio while walking the dog just now and one of the hosts just talked about hearing a rumor regarding offering Senga a 7 year deal and then speculating that it must be a Henry reaction to the whole Xander situation. This whole thing basically exemplifies the current state of media.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 9, 2022 21:27:19 GMT -5
If the Yankees say screw it a la 2009 and sign Correa and Rodon, this division is going to be unwinnable for a few years. If you go to that tweet, the first reply is Buster saying “that’s not what I said”.
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Post by 07redsox on Dec 7, 2022 15:35:46 GMT -5
So you don’t believe Bloom when he has said multiple times that Bogaerts is their priority, but you do believe all of the negative media noise that has been coming out over the past few weeks? That is an interesting take... Multi-million dollar organizations (including sports team) aren’t changing directions over 24 hours because of media/perception. It’s also hard to change directions when they have been upfront about their direction of being interested in him anyway. I seem to recall that in 2020 Bloom told the press the RS were intent on keeping JBJ. Jackie was asked for his reaction and said the Red Sox had told "y'all" that they were interested but had not said a word to him about a contract. They don't have my undying trust. You don’t need undying trust to realize that Bogaerts and the JBJ situation you bring up are two completely different situations with completely different players. Bogaerts has been the face of this franchise for a while now. JBJ was never anywhere close to that.
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