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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 17, 2015 19:42:19 GMT -5
I agree we have some question marks in our rotation. I've said so many times. That being said, Buehrle is not my choice at all. I would love to get a #2. I would feel way more comfortable with someone that can eat innings, as a #2. Buehrle is not a #2, in my opinion.
Also, why argue over whether or not Buchholz has a patterned bad year after an injury. The bottom line with him is... HE IS THE MOST CONSISTENT INCONSISTENT PITCHER I'VE EVER SAW. I would never wish to depend on him as the #2 pitcher for the Sox. In nine years he has pitched over 20 starts three times. Of those three seasons? Only one was considered a good year. That is no where near a #2 pitcher.
Porcello is a #3. Not a great #3, but solid and with potential for a #2. He had a good 2014 and a good 2nd half last year, but thats it. How can anyone say with certainty he is a #2 right now?
Kelly has a lot of potential. Throws hard, which DD likes, so iI've heard. He has not put it together yet. He has a good six weeks last year.....
Rodriguez has so much talent. I'm excited, but I also keep reminding myself that a 4.00 era and 180 innings will be fine.
As for position players: Don't let Sandoval hit against lefties. Put in Shaw or Holt. Make sure we get Young in there vs lefties... either Bradley or Castillo can sit. Swihart is in vs RHP's and Hanigan vs LHP's.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 17, 2015 13:02:26 GMT -5
NC and RJP, I agree with a lot of what you said. However, I think there are more questions right now than people are willing to really consider. We all (I think) agree that Price is going to be a very good pitcher in Boston suring up the top of the rotation and the same thing can be said for our bull pen which should assuredly be a strength with Kimbrel, Koji, Smith and Tazawa as the big names at the back end. Beyond that, however, there are certainly question marks with 2/3 of our outfield (admittedly bolstered againt under-performance of one of them with Chris Young) and with 1/2 of our infield. I tend to feel very confident with our 1-4 in the line up (Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts and Ortiz), and I feel very good about our catching situation. That said I'm operating under the assumption of negative value both offensively and defensively at 3b with Sandoval, at least negative value at 1b defensively from Ramirez and a very bad year from Buchholz - which has been his track record coming off injury over the past 5 seasons, so a significant sample size. While I do like Porcello and Rodriguez a lot (same with Bradley Jr and Castillo), and absolutley want them both in the rotation, I'm in no way going to sit here and say they don't have questions associated with them. We don't really know what the "cost" to acquire another 2/3 starter is on the trade market since none of been moved - but lets agree to assume it's prohibitive. I still think the Sox would be better served to pick up another starter that can reasonably be expected to give you what Porcello will - a 3 baseline with potential for more. I would absolutely kick the tires on both Kazmir and Chen to see what the cost is going to be there, but the name I'd really love to see brought in is Mark Buehrle. He is certainly near the end of his career entering the season at age 37, BUT over his last 3 seasons in Toronto he has put up on average 32 starts with a 3.78ERA and has for his entire career outpitched his FIP (so we have to assume this is a skill and he hasn't gotten "lucky" for 16 seasons). I think it's very reasonable to use Lackey's deal with Chicago as a baseline based on their same age and very similar numbers - though Buehrle has actually been slightly more durable. Similar to Price and Lackey, he's also shown an ability to pitch in the AL East. I would LOVE a rotation of Price, Buehrle, Porcello, Rodriguez and then a battle royale for the 5th spot. Based on Buehrle having basically a neutral split (.264/.305/.420/.726 vs LHP; .277/.318/.421/.740 against RHP) and Price dominating against both, I couldn't care less if they threw with their feet, much less that they're left handed. He also doesn't cost a pick. Honestly, I'm just upset we haven't signed him already. I agree with most everything, except signing Buehrle. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 17, 2015 13:00:19 GMT -5
I would think that Betts, Pedey, Ortiz, Ramirez and Bogaerts in that order to start the year. Unless Ramirez is horrible in spring training or there are injuries.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 16, 2015 16:45:25 GMT -5
Also, as already mentioned, Benintendi and Moncada could move up quickly...
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 16, 2015 16:43:30 GMT -5
Espinoza and Chavis should both start in Greenville.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 13, 2015 15:55:11 GMT -5
Just read that we tried to send Miley to KC for Herrera, but they countered with Hochiver and we sent him to Seattle instead.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 12, 2015 15:15:39 GMT -5
Overall, I'm in total agreement with you (and others) regarding Porcello in that I think he's going to be just fine here in Boston over the long term. Look at two recent big acquistions moving from another team in Beckett and Lackey. They both struggled mightly in their first seasons in Boston, and when you look at the second half of each pitcher in those season's (2006, 2010 and 2015, respectively), Porcello's was the best of all three of them. That said, I don't think that Porcello is as good of a pitcher as either Beckett or Lackey, unfortunately. To me Porcello is likely to be a very good number 3 pitcher, with the upside of becoming a number 2 as he matures - it's so easy to forget he's only going to be 27 this year. We have done a lot to fix the team this season, and unlike last year where I think we went into the season with a guy whom I thought would be a number 2 (Porcello) a number 4 (Miley) and then a bunch of number 5 starters; this year I think we are going in to the season with an Ace (Price), two guys that are presently number 3s, but both with good or great upside (Porcello and Rodriguez, respectively) and then a bunch of number 5 starters. I would still very much like to see the team pursue a number 2 starter, or another very solid number 3 starter whether via trade or free agency. In my opinion, a number 5 starter simply means someone at the end of your rotation with a lot of questions. So I'm considering Buchholz a number 5 not based on his tons of talent, but based on the fact that over his last 5 seasons he has alternated between very good and below replacement level, and this season will be in his "downward trend" so I'm anticipating an ERA from him above 4.50. Then you look at guys like Kelly, Owens, Wright etc, all of whom have question marks that are even greater than Buchholz. I would love to see a movement where we are able to shed some contracts of the players with the greatest uncertainty (Sandoval, Buchholz, Ramirez would be my order of preference) and bring in another starter to ensure more of a line up of Ace, three number 3 pitchers - at worst, and then leaving the 5th (and 6th) slots for Kelly, Owens, Wright, Johnson, Elias, etc to battle over. I agree with most of what you said here, but I do think Buchholz is better than a #5, however I fully understand the reasons you don't put him higher. Porcello and Rodriguez definitely have the ability to be a solid #2, but they still need to improve and pitch better more consistently to be a #2. I like them both. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 12, 2015 14:22:48 GMT -5
Heres my way too out there trade proposal: Mia - Salazar, Devers, Kopech, Travis, Clv - Frazier, Bradley , Buchholz Cin - Owens, Chavis, Light Bos - Fernandez, B. Shaw It should be noted that I know we are giving up a lot of quantity. Alsoñ I know it is most likely not to happen, but I had fun trying. The sox are giving up too much, I know, I know. The thing is... Cin will want a lot for Frazier as he has two years left at like only 6 mil each. Plus, there are no other 3B options out there and he hits home runs. Clv wants a ton for a potential ace on the cheap with 5 years of control. Miami, we already know they want the entire north east for Fernandez. In all. We will be paying way too much to get Fernandez this year. I've said this a few times over the past few weeks... our best chance at Salazar or Carrasco will be to include a third team like Col or Cin... probably Col as Gonzalez has a higher salary and as such should cost a bit less to aquire. Honestly, I'd like to have Gonzalez, but if the Sox could get him and flip him into a #2, a good #2, we should do it, as always, in my opinion. Don't twist yourself into knots trying to figure out how the Sox land Fernandez or Carrasco or whoever. They're not surrendering JBJ or Swihart. They're not surrendering Moncada, and I think they don't want to deal Benintendi or Espinoza either. They can't get a #2 guy, let alone an ace without wrecking messing up their team or dumping their best prospects who they'll need (cheap talent that plays well allowing them to afford David Price's contract and survive Hanley's, Porcello's, and Sandoval's contract. It would be a lot easier for the Cubs to send a pitcher, Baez, and Soler to get Carrasco, none of this crazy twisting necessary. And Fernandez won't be dealt until the Marlins absolutely have to deal him. I wouldn't worry too much about him either. I take DDo at his word - no reason not to. They're done until something falls into their laps. I was having fun making a four team deal, nothing more. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 12, 2015 14:19:38 GMT -5
Heres my way too out there trade proposal: Mia - Salazar, Devers, Kopech, Travis, Clv - Frazier, Bradley , Buchholz Cin - Owens, Chavis, Light Bos - Fernandez, B. Shaw It should be noted that I know we are giving up a lot of quantity. Alsoñ I know it is most likely not to happen, but I had fun trying. The sox are giving up too much, I know, I know. The thing is... Cin will want a lot for Frazier as he has two years left at like only 6 mil each. Plus, there are no other 3B options out there and he hits home runs. Clv wants a ton for a potential ace on the cheap with 5 years of control. Miami, we already know they want the entire north east for Fernandez. In all. We will be paying way too much to get Fernandez this year. I've said this a few times over the past few weeks... our best chance at Salazar or Carrasco will be to include a third team like Col or Cin... probably Col as Gonzalez has a higher salary and as such should cost a bit less to aquire. Honestly, I'd like to have Gonzalez, but if the Sox could get him and flip him into a #2, a good #2, we should do it, as always, in my opinion. Fernandez behind Price though.... What? Why would they Sox give up Buchholz, Owens, Kopech, Bradley Jr. Devers, Sam Travis, Chavis, Pat Light for Jose Fernandez and a reliever they don't need? Yeah I know... no way to make it work. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 12, 2015 13:52:50 GMT -5
Heres my way too out there trade proposal:
Mia - Salazar, Devers, Kopech, Travis,
Clv - Frazier, Bradley , Buchholz
Cin - Owens, Chavis, Light
Bos - Fernandez, B. Shaw
It should be noted that I know we are giving up a lot of quantity. Alsoñ I know it is most likely not to happen, but I had fun trying.
The sox are giving up too much, I know, I know.
The thing is... Cin will want a lot for Frazier as he has two years left at like only 6 mil each. Plus, there are no other 3B options out there and he hits home runs.
Clv wants a ton for a potential ace on the cheap with 5 years of control.
Miami, we already know they want the entire north east for Fernandez.
In all. We will be paying way too much to get Fernandez this year.
I've said this a few times over the past few weeks... our best chance at Salazar or Carrasco will be to include a third team like Col or Cin... probably Col as Gonzalez has a higher salary and as such should cost a bit less to aquire.
Honestly, I'd like to have Gonzalez, but if the Sox could get him and flip him into a #2, a good #2, we should do it, as always, in my opinion.
Fernandez behind Price though....
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 11, 2015 11:59:58 GMT -5
Cuato at 1 year 25-26 mil?? He can then enter free agency next year in a much weaker pitcher class. He will only be 30 next year and younger than both Price and Grienke were this year. He can still get a 5/6 year deal. If he pitches well, he will be the best FA pitcher... probably. For the Sox, we get a true #2 for this year. We can further evaluate Porcello and more so Kelly to see if they can replace Cuato as the #2 8n 2017. The Sox will not be on the hook past 2016. And if he tears his UCL, he'd be leaving $100 million on the table. I know there is insurance, but it's really expensive and doesn't pay all of that, plus you have to fight like hell to get it paid. There's just no way he'd want a 1 year deal. I don't thinkhe will do it, but... what if he is not getting the type of deal he wants this year? Next year he will not have the SP competition as there is this year. What about 1 year 32 mil?? I get it is a long shot... at best. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 11, 2015 11:34:47 GMT -5
Cuato at 1 year 25-26 mil?? He can then enter free agency next year in a much weaker pitcher class. He will only be 30 next year and younger than both Price and Grienke were this year. He can still get a 5/6 year deal. If he pitches well, he will be the best FA pitcher... probably. For the Sox, we get a true #2 for this year. We can further evaluate Porcello and more so Kelly to see if they can replace Cuato as the #2 8n 2017. The Sox will not be on the hook past 2016.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 11, 2015 11:22:29 GMT -5
Side note: if Porcello were a free agent this offseason, what kind of a contract would he get? You'd think he'd be comped to Samardzija (5/$90m), Chen, and Leake. In that light, 4/$82.5m isn't much of an overpay. I think he might get more, honestly. Given his 2014, his strong finish to 2015, his age, his peripherals, etc... I think you'd have had a team or two willing to go somewhere like 5/$120M. I don't think Porcello would have received more than Zimmermann. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 15:24:31 GMT -5
I get that he was young. I hope he pitches the remainder of his contract like he did in 2014. I just don't think we should expect it. By the way, I was serving my 4th year in the United States Army overseas. 10 4, that wasn't a knock, I had no point of reference on you. Thanks for your service Never saw it as a knock buddy. Appriciate the thank you. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 15:08:29 GMT -5
He pitched seven years and aside from 2014, none of those other six years are close to a #2. Players have only one good/great year often. I tend to look at the averages of those other years and, at least to me, I don't see a #2. Who pitched like a #1 or a #2 for the Royals last year? There's a fine line between trying to put together a team capable of winning the World Series and trying to build a super team with a destroyed future. We're probably 99% certain to not trade for a #2 and I'd actually doubt they sign anyone else. I think you're right in that we probably will not trade for a #2 nor sign one, but it does not change my thinking with regards to out current group of pitchers. You are right that we may not need a #2 like KC didn't have, but the title is... "what can be done to fix the sox" and, in my humble opinion, I think we need a #2 pitcher. Just as much as having good years if not more so, I can see our #2 through #5 guys having bad years. I can easily see Porcello with another career average year of 4.39 era. I can see Kelly having about the same. Buchholz may pitch 28... or 14 games... half at 2.00 era and the other half at 4.39 too. ERod in a bit of a rut with hitters studying him more. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 14:58:28 GMT -5
He pitched seven years and aside from 2014, none of those other six years are close to a #2. Players have only one good/great year often. I tend to look at the averages of those other years and, at least to me, I don't see a #2. He started pitching in MLB at 21 years old. What were you doing at 21, if you've reached that age yet? Context, it's a wonderful thing. I get that he was young. I hope he pitches the remainder of his contract like he did in 2014. I just don't think we should expect it. By the way, I was serving my 4th year in the United States Army overseas. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 13:36:56 GMT -5
I like Porcello and think he will have a better 2nd year with the Sox. I just don't know he will be a 3.5 era pitcher going forward... he may and I hope, but I just don't want to bet on it.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 13:32:28 GMT -5
Nothing implies he'll be a solid #2? I have my doubts, sure, but in 2014 he put the same bWAR as Madison Bumgarner so he's done it for a full season. Again, I'm not suggesting any comfort level with him yet but . . . He pitched seven years and aside from 2014, none of those other six years are close to a #2. Players have only one good/great year often. I tend to look at the averages of those other years and, at least to me, I don't see a #2. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 9:08:52 GMT -5
I really think we need a #2 pitcher. A reliable #2.
Porcello is fine,but not at #2 pitcher. He showed in the 2nd half he was better than a 5 era type guy, but looking at his career numbers nothing implies he will be a solid #2. I can see him having another horrible half year just as much as him having a solid full year.
Kelly is no where near a sure thing. Same,as Porcello, except less of a track record. Kelly has talent, but we cannot count on him to be anything more than a #4/5 type guy.
Rodriguez, for as good as he pitched as a rookie, had some ups and downs. To expect him to be our #2 is unfair. We can hope, but no way we can count on it.
Buchholz has a lot of talent.... and mental break downs.... and injuries.... and.... we cannot count on him at all.
Wright, Owens, Johnson and Elias are definitely not #2's.
The Sox spent a lot improving for this year and the immediate future. If we don't have a #2 it may really limit our chances of winning it all, in my opinion.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 9, 2015 17:35:59 GMT -5
If Wash is interested in Mike Leake, can we pawn Porcello's contract off on them? I think they have some pitching depth... I don't think they're inclined to trade for Pocello. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 9, 2015 17:05:22 GMT -5
I don't think Castillo has much trade value right now . I'm not sure he would get claimed off waivers. I think we have almost no option but to hold on to him and hope his bat improves. Bradley is our only OFer that can bring anything back. Betts is not going anywhere... unless Trout, Harper or Goldschmidt are made available. If a team demands an OFer from us as part of a #2 pitcher deal, I think Bradley has to be involved,no?
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 9, 2015 16:47:58 GMT -5
Maybe Bradley instead of Travis? Then we sign Gordon!! Just thinking out loud. Abraham tweeted that a team that asked about JBJ was told that we are not trading him. Ahh... well, I was thinking Cleveland could use a CFer. I like Bradley, but would include him with out hesitation for a Carrasco type or Carrasco. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 9, 2015 12:22:57 GMT -5
Maybe Bradley instead of Travis? Then we sign Gordon!! Just thinking out loud.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 9, 2015 12:21:22 GMT -5
I would still like to see a three team deal with either Cincinnati or Colorado to get Carrasco.
Frazier to Cleveland or Gonzalez to Cleveland.
Maybe Buchholz/Frazier to Cleveland along with a prospect like Travis.
Send Johnson and Chavis to Cincinnati... maybe Jerez too.
Idk....
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 8, 2015 22:21:28 GMT -5
I'm open to the idea that there are factors like a lack of supply, mismatches in wants and needs, timing, etc. that can justify an overpay. But I've heard the arguments about how there weren't other relievers available or that they needed an ELITE reliever or that they needed to do this first so they could focus on starting pitching, and I just disagree with them. And yet, when Kimbrel, Koji, Taz, Smith preserve and create wins that the Sox lost out on in 2015, I think we will all be very happy. Margot, Guerra, Asuaje, Allen, Miley, Aro produced Kimbrel, Smith, Elias. Add them to Price and Young and the Sox are already a considerably better and more complete team. Painful, but Moncada, Devers, Beni, Espinoza, Kopech, etc are still in place; as are Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Castillo, Holt, Marrero, Shaw, Swihart, Vasquez, all of whose names have been floated in trade talk at some point this offseason. IMO, going from a team with promise if certain deficiencies can be overcome, to a team which is likely to contend has been a magical ride. I am a happy man. And the #12 pick too!! |
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