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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 24, 2021 17:34:56 GMT -5
Personally I’ve stopped looking to MiLB pitchers for a few years now, all I care about is strikeouts and walks meaning Do they have good stuff? And can they control/command it? I think I'm mostly with this. If you cant miss bats in AA you won't make it in the majors. And Winck is more borderline...I don't think they'll expose Winckowski, but I think protecting him will cost them someone I like more.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 18, 2021 6:37:05 GMT -5
I think there's a lot of guys who in a normal year would get drafted but I also assume a lot of other teams have an Ort/Fitzgerald they are risking thanks to the Covid year. Personally I am more curious about Downs/Jiminez if both are truly locks. Boston spent the year showcasing what Downs can do against advanced pitching right now, and Jimenez approach/results have proven he's a high risk of not making the majors. I wouldn't consider Winckowski a sure thing either. I didn't Hernandez a few months ago, but he's probably played his way into staying on. Also assume they would love to trade JDM off and Schwarber on, with the flexibility it gives to DH Dalbec/Shwarber/Devers whenever they would like.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 17, 2021 17:00:10 GMT -5
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 15, 2021 15:46:56 GMT -5
Reminder: Houck is 52nd in AL pitcher WAR, and still doesn't have a win. Only pitcher in top 100 with 50+ IP and no wins. I hope he 1) gets the W tonight and 2) Sox get a big enough lead he gets an opportunity to pitch deeper into the game and see what he can do.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 15, 2021 15:31:06 GMT -5
But since he hit 400 career PA (on the nose!) he's likely been the legitimate best hitter in baseball. It's hard to sustain that for over a month without being at least a genuinely good hitter. Later: four possible futures.
Id be interested in this data and what gives you the confidence in him. We don't have to go very far for a counter (Jackie Bradley Jr)
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 15, 2021 15:27:51 GMT -5
I was on the 'trade Dalbec' bandwagon before, and won't stop now. From what I can tell he's a likeable kid. And my first pick to throw in a 14-3 blowout. But I just don't believe in the hitting, or the not striking out. Unless you are saying it's because he was a pitcher for so long he's still developing as a hitter. I don't know what his trade value is, so if they just get a RP with two years of control, not sure that's enough, but if there's value from someone, go for it.
Edit: I wouldn't call it a position of strength. Casas hasn't taken a AAA swing yet and we tried to convert a LF midseason.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 13, 2021 15:19:30 GMT -5
I had figured all along Yorke would start next year in Greenville no matter what, but his play seems to suggest otherwise.
I know these things work themselves out generally, but Im curious if there will be a bit of a dilemma with Yorke and Cannon next year both at AA/2B. They could keep Yorke in Greenville, or push Cannon to LF.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 11, 2021 16:41:58 GMT -5
I mean thatâs our best offensive lineup probably, no? Yes, but here's hoping no fly balls make it to the outfield. Which do you prefer taking offense + defense into consideration: this lineup, or Schwarber at DH, Verdugo at LF, Kiké at CF, Arauz at 2B, and JDM sitting? I might take the latter, though could go either way.
Have I missed any quotes from Schwarber about loving Fenway/Boston/fans here? As in a good chance to see that latter OF/DH lineup next year?
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 10, 2021 19:25:37 GMT -5
Guidas -i worry about your ability to critically evaluate data.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 10, 2021 18:10:24 GMT -5
100% give ERod the QO. Thrilled if he accepts it.
My reluctance is based on a pitcher going into his age 29 season who has thrown more than 140 IP one time. I thought they overpaid for Eovaldi, and that turned out okay, and it may for ERod, but it all depends on number/term. I assume other GMs know he's good and someone would offer more than Id want the Red Sox to.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 10, 2021 16:53:50 GMT -5
Does anyone have Yorke's final stat line? I believe he went 7 for 10. The median player with his pedigree should be expected to be a total disaster against AAA pitching. A .200 hitter has about a 1 in 100,000 chance of going 7 for 10. You need to be a .297 hitter to get it to 1 in 1,000. We already have enough information to significantly upgrade our projections for how good he'll be. I don't know where this math came from, but it is absurdly wrong.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 8, 2021 17:10:16 GMT -5
Im going to bet that the 3rd highest paid pitcher on the payroll next year is David Price.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 8, 2021 15:07:49 GMT -5
If Schwarber out its gotta either be some crazy split, he needs a rest day after rushing back from injury, or a trip to the Covid list...
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 7, 2021 17:06:22 GMT -5
Red Sox with QO pick for Erod and #41, sign me up, maybe a chance to pull some upside arms in the draft. Completely agree on wanting Whitlock to start. Hope he does. And to say Houck is worse this year, may be true but WHIP <1.2, K of 11 per 9 and >5:1 K:BB makes me think we should make him fail building up innings/3rd time through order. That said the 1.4 OPS for 3rd time through and never facing a guy a 4th time may not get all the way better.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 7, 2021 15:22:58 GMT -5
I think there's not enough Houck as a SP and Whitlock as a RP consideration here. I want Whitlock to start, but they clearly see Houck as a SP, and I think he's really been better than I expected, so I assume they have to give him a chance. So Sale-Eovaldi-Pivetta-Houck. Id guess ERod out. Then Seabold-Whitlock-Perez for last spot. I really think Whitlock may go the Papelbon route... just one year SP filling in because of need and never goes back to start.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 6, 2021 16:42:13 GMT -5
We'll have our vaccinated back. Six of nine opening day players in the lineup plus Schwarber, and Sale/Ottavino/Whitlock. I get its not that simple, but this is ugly.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 6, 2021 16:33:38 GMT -5
I like Christian Vazquez more than some, but seems like Plawecki has earned some more time with his bat recently.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 6, 2021 16:30:25 GMT -5
Curious: do the Red Sox fans rooting so hard for them to make the playoffs realize they will then be forced to watch this defence and bullpen actually play in the playoffs?
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 6, 2021 15:18:51 GMT -5
If Bobby bombs one here, ill change my tune.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 6, 2021 14:57:45 GMT -5
How long till Tampa trades Franco away?
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 6, 2021 14:43:52 GMT -5
I’m extremely happy with his development not because he’s my untouchable but for exactly the opposite reason Casas will be here soon and this guy is looking like a solid player these days. Can probably get something nice for him dalbec will be a very dangerous number 4/5 hitter for some team, I’d rather it be us unless we get a super stud prospect in return. devers, casas, Dalbec 3-4-5 would make pitchers terrified Ive been saying trade him as soon as he gets any value, and if there are any GMs who agree with you how good he is, go for it. A few more hits his OBP could reach 0.300, I'll start working on the plaque now. The counter is that he's only been a full time hitter a few years, Covid, etc... but I hope he ends the season hot, and they immediately flip him for the best prospect anyone will cough up.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 5, 2021 15:39:22 GMT -5
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 5, 2021 15:36:29 GMT -5
I'm pro vaccination, but really concerning to see the amount of vaccinated guys getting pulled. Kiké for example, I believe they said was. I understand the likelihood goes down and you handle it better, just concerning to me. The problem is these guys all get on a plane together often. It’s easy to see why this happens Certain guys on this team Id be shocked if they were vaccinated. I wouldn't let a SP anywhere near the team/park unless its gameday.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 5, 2021 15:35:00 GMT -5
Would be interesting to know vaccination status and whether close contact/positive test, so how preventable this mess really was... If they released that though, imagine the twitter hate for an antivax guy who costs his team an important game by not being available. We knew all along this was the rules, and teams that weren't as highly vaccinated risked this. I'm pro vaccination, but really concerning to see the amount of vaccinated guys getting pulled. Kiké for example, I believe they said was. I understand the likelihood goes down and you handle it better, just concerning to me. The ones that return quicker probably were vaccinated, and obviously the rules for exclusion are different. Someone did bring up the single shot doses, which we know are less effective but probably overrepresented in athletes... I think some other cases were also vaccinated. And then there's the challenge that the season was underway by the time they had eligibility which makes it harder to potentially need a day or two off for side effects. But I would be pretty suspicious the amount of spread/cases we see represents lack of vaccination rather than high breakthrough.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 5, 2021 15:24:11 GMT -5
Would be interesting to know vaccination status and whether close contact/positive test, so how preventable this mess really was... If they released that though, imagine the twitter hate for an antivax guy who costs his team an important game by not being available. We knew all along this was the rules, and teams that weren't as highly vaccinated risked this.
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