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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 9, 2023 11:25:40 GMT -5
AL East Standings, 2023 playoffs only: Boston 0-0 New York 0-0 Baltimore 0-2 Tampa Bay 0-2 Toronto 0-2
Yay, the Red Sox are tied for first place. I knew this not playing thing would help them out immensely. Kudos to Bloom for building a team than simply cannot lose in the post season. But does that I mean I have to give Cashman credit, too?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 8, 2023 14:14:58 GMT -5
The Dodgers would be thrilled if he had 3 post-season starts that David Price had in the ALCS and World Series. I know David Price was the punch line to that joke, but those 3 starts should have changed the narrative somewhat. I mean, honestly, he could have been the 2018 World Series MVP and he would have deserved it. That's true, but even with that performance he still had a 4.6+ ERA. But he did the job we needed him to do. Yeah, he was awful against NYY in the ALDS and he was not good in his next start against Houston in Game 2. That killed his stats, but it doesn't alter the fact that he was damn good in clinching Game 5 of the ALCS blanking Houston over 6 innings, that he beat LA on Game 2 with 2 runs in 6 innings, pitched effective relief in Game 3, and then after giving up a HR on his first pitch of clinching Game 5, the Dodgers didnt touch him for 7 innings. He easily could have gotten MVP of the Series if Pearce didnt hit his 2nd HR of Game 5 in the 8th to grab the award. There is no more high leverage games than the Wirld Series. I mean, what the hell do the they play for that means more? I feel Price certainly got the monkey off his back. I never cared for David Price but I certainly wasnt bitching about his contract during that Series, lol.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 8, 2023 9:00:48 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats did some sort of survey on various things Red Sox. The response to the question about the Bloom firing surprised me: More pro-Bloom sentiment than I would have expected.
Hasn't RedSoxStats generally been pro-Bloom? People who follow him are probably pre-disposed to a pro Bloom or at least pro Bloom style team building philosophy. Small surveys of self selected people are not necessarily representative of the larger fandom. Exactly, they're not the stereotypical WEEI talkshow caller. They're more the statistically inclined analytical number crunching type. 58% support is kind of luke warm.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 8, 2023 0:50:54 GMT -5
He was also perfect in Gane 1, protecting an 8-4 lead and he did a good job in a game 3, but gave up a 2 run HR to Kiké Hernandez with a 5 run lead on Game 4. If I'm not mistaken Eric Gagne called Alex Cora after Game 4 of the ALCS and told him that Kimbrel was tipping his pitches and they worked on fixing that and Kimbrel closed out the pennant clinching 4-1 victory without too much drama.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2023 23:49:11 GMT -5
Kershaw is not a very good postseason pitcher. He's basically David Price. The Dodgers would be thrilled if he had 3 post-season starts that David Price had in the ALCS and World Series. I know David Price was the punch line to that joke, but those 3 starts should have changed the narrative somewhat. I mean, honestly, he could have been the 2018 World Series MVP and he would have deserved it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2023 16:54:13 GMT -5
Glad to see the Rangers grab a game 1 road win. As the only team in the final 8 that has never won a WS, I would love to see them win this year !! The way they lost in 2011 was horrendous. That might have been more excruciating than the way the Red Sox lost in 1986. The Rangers were 1 strike away in the bottom of the 9th up 2 runs and a 2 run triple by David Freese tied the game and it's not out of the question that a better defender than Nelson Cruz could have caught that ball. Then the Rangers shake that off and Hamilton puts them ahead with a 2 run HR and again they're 3 outs away and this time the Cardinals have their 7-8-9 hitters up and nobody to PH for the pitcher, so if Darren Oliver gets the first two guys out the Cards are stuck with their pitcher as their last hope. Instead I think one of the guys or maybe both got on (I can't remember which) which created an obvious bunt situation for the pitcher. I remember Lance Berkman coming up as the Cardinals' last hope and I remember Scott Feldman was unable to slam the door and Berkman singled to tie the game at 9-9. Once that happened Texas was done. Freese hit the walk off in the bottom of the 11th and then after the Rangers scored twice in the 1st inning of game 7 everybody knew that lead wouldn't last long and it didn't. It was wiped out in the last of the first and then the Rangers bats went silent and the Cards won easily 6-2 or something like that. I remember Jason Motte getting David Hamilton to fly out to Allen Craig in LF to end it. 1986 was cruel, 2 outs and nobody on and then 3 runs scored and then blowing a 3-0 6th inning lead for an encore, but the Rangers were 1 out away (1 strike away I believe) twice, in two different innings. That's atrocious. I hope the Rangers can win one. They have gone the longest without ever winning one (Cleveland has been waiting for their next championship since 1948, punishment for depriving the world of a 1948 all Boston World Series featuring the Boston Braves vs the Boston Red Sox).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2023 14:38:21 GMT -5
I don’t really understand why there has to be a DD/Bloom dichotomy for so many. They both made good and bad decisions, and whether you personally prefer the style of one over the other shouldn’t get in the way of objective analysis of the moves they made Dombrowski made a series of moves that led to a monstrous 2018 team that was good enough to knock off two of the best teams I’ve ever seen in the late-teens Dodgers and Astros. The moves he made had obvious long-term consequences, and those consequences were exacerbated by his style of paying what it takes to get his guy instead of pivoting to a better-value alternative. Things went belly up probably sooner than expected. All of these things can be true, just like it can all be true that Bloom did a lot of things well, had good reason to operate with caution given the state of the team, and ended up building three last-place teams in four years because he wasn’t willing to pay the price to bring the team up a level in sort order. It’s hard to avoid putting any blame on Dombrowski for the team being ~25 wins a season worse in the three years after they won the World Series, which includes a year he was in charge. He left the core of those teams behind, and the big contract he stuck his neck out for has been a huge anchor for that entire period and beyond. It’s also hard to avoid putting any blame on Bloom for them not looking any better five years later. The 2022 team is a great example: Rich Hill and Michael Wacha were insufficient rotation additions. The Travis Shaw and JBJ experiments were major busts that left two huge holes in the lineup in positions with a high offensive bar. Bloom deserves some blame for the final decisions he made. But that team was never going to go far with the contributions they got from JD, Eovaldi, and Sale. When that’s what you’re getting out of your highest paid players, you end up relying on your role players to make up way more value than you can reasonably expect, especially if none of them are young players on deflated salaries. Fair assessment. I don't necessarily agree with the better value alternative approach because sometimes the better value alternative appproach isn't really available and sometimes you get what you pay for which is less than what was needed. But yeah, I think everything else you wrote is very fair. Dombrowski wasn't without fault. I get why he signed Sale but when making a move like that you have to feel confident that he'd bounce back from surgery which hasn't really happened and of course when you sign a guy about to head for surgery like that you're taking on dead money at that point. And it's not like Bloom didn't do good things. I liked the Vazquez for Valdez/Abreu deal from the get-go. Whitlock was a good pickup and he got good results from taking a chance on Renfroe and the Aldo for Schwarber was a slam dunk and yeah, the system is in good shape on the offensive side of the ball. But I think one of the things that has harmed Dombrowski and Bloom is dealing with a deficit from the lack of developing starting pitching through the minors. Dombrowski had to spend a ton of money on a free agent pitcher. Top prospects had to be sacrificed to obtain a top notch starter. Even on the closer side. Dombrowski had to trade for an established closer and Bloom had to sign one because in between there was a lot of instability as none of these key pitching roles were filled from within the organization beyond the graduation of Bello. When in a situation like that whoever is in charge has to go out and spend prospects and/or money. That's really the root of the issue that brought on problems. I'm old enough to remember a time when the Sox used to grow their own starters, which is one reason I wouldn't be anxious to part with Bello. Maybe it was rare that the Sox developed Lester and Buchholz and Papelbon, but the great thing about that is that there was one less top of the rotation to have to get, one less closer to have to cycle through. I know there's the TINSNAAPP argument, but that just doesn't wash with what is needed. I'm not sure how they go about it, whether it's better drafting or better development within the system or both, but if they're able to figure out that piece better, then maybe there's less need to risk big bucks on a pitcher or even a closer to a lesser degree, as it's easier to obtain a hitter and feel like you'll get better value with less injury risk involved. I know I'm morphing from the Bloom vs Dombrowski debate but I think underlying all of that was what do you do when you desperately need top a solid 1 and 2 starter and you don't have much in the system other than hybrid pitchers who can be a #4/5 or a setup man/multi-inning reliever? Bloom showed you can't sit there and cycle through more hybrids and expect to be there with the top teams in the league and Dombrowski showed that you have to spend more than you'd want to for a David Price (who thankfully saved his best pitching for when it absolutely mattered the most) or trade for a Chris Sale on a reasonable contract and hope you don't give up too much.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2023 13:03:32 GMT -5
I'd still like to see the WAR that went out the door so I can see if it was costly or reasonable. I mean is Pearce for Espinal a loss in WAR, because if it is, then how meaningful is that stat in evaluating the Red Sox circumstances? I get the point about taking on Kimbrel's money and sending the prospects, but let's be real world here. They gave up Margot who is basically a 4th OF, Logan Allen who was at best a depth starter who gets pounded in the majors and lands back in the minors, a converted reliever who did the same and a utility man that didnt stick. But that's too much. Think of all the trades they could have made that they didnt for these amazing prospects. I'm sure they could have got Cy Young award winners or batting champs or maybe even a major league utility player. I think the opportunities lost over the loss of the prospects wasnt as huge as some anticipated. Then look at what Kimbrel was prior to the Sox acquiring him. He was merely the best closer in the game over the previous 5 years, dominant with Atlanta. As it was, Kimbrel hurt his thumb in 2016 and wasnt as good, was healthy and dominant in 2017, and then began to decline in 2018. Closer was also a position of need in 2016 as Uehara had aged out. So if I had a chance to get a premier closer for a future 4th OF and three fringe highly fungible players I do that deal in a heartbeat. Did the bwar stat kill the Sox on that deal? For the talk of lowering the payroll, what did that get the Sox? They lowered it, became irrelevant, grew the farm system well because they drafted much higher and never traded anybody, yet are woefully short in the pitching department and still will be left to have to spend huge money and/or trade from the farm to get front line starting pitching because for all the strides the system has made, front line pitching wont be coming from the farm any time soon if it does at all, which ironically was he situation Dombrowski walked into, so here we are again back at this point in the cycle. The pro-Kimbrel trade argument is that he maybe made the difference to them winning the division in 2017; without him they're a wild card instead. In 2018 his main contribution was to nearly but not quite totally blow a magical season. But in 2020-22 Margot put up 4.5 WAR in just under 1000 PAs. He would have clearly made the team better in those years. Meanwhile, Moncada had a 4 WAR season in 2021 and Kopech added another 1.7. Could they have put the Red Sox over the hump in their 2021 postseason run?
So Dombrowski took value from the future to make the team better in the (then) present. This is a well-known strategy called "going for it now." You are welcome to argue that it worked. What I don't understand is why Dombrowski's supporters insist on having their cake and eating it too: they want to say he made a bunch of good prospects-for-MLBers trades and paid no price in doing so. Feel free to just take the W - he GFINed and it worked! No need to spin a story about how he magically did it for free. (Then there is the other side of his approach: he traded away prospects, but he also failed to add a single real prospect in any trade, despite the looming hole in the farm system that was coming down the pike. If Bloom gets such grief for not selling off when the team was 2 games out of a wild card spot in 2022 and 2023, why does Dombrowski get a pass for not selling off when they were 3 games out in 2019 and the farm system was in much more dire shape?)
Nothing is for free, but the cost was worth it. I think what they added for 2017 and 18 was more timely and impactful than what was subsequently subtracted, which I felt was easier to replace. Cant win anything without front line starting pitching - see the 2022 and 2023 Sox as examples. Moncada would have had to be a 2b to help the club but he wasn't a good 2b, he was a 3b and he wasnt going to push Devers off of 3b, so perhaps his WAR wouldnt have been as good as a defensive liability at 2b. The bottom line is that the Sox had two 3b and chose Devers over Moncada. Margot in 2021 likely meant no Kiké Hernandez. I'm no Kiké fan, but he was damn good in the 2nd half and especially in the postseason, so I certainly dont go around thinking if only we had Margot instead of Hernandez in 21 we would have gotten past Houston and Atlanta. I think timing plays a big part on these trades that gets left out of the equation. The Red Sox were flat out serious contenders when they made these moves to get them over the hump. In 2021 they were overachievers that barely made it and got some Kiké Hernandez heroics on the postseason. I certainly dont think the guys they dealt away would have moved the needle much in 19 and 21 and certainly not in the past 2 years or 2020. In 2019 at the deadline I think the Sox were in the wild card race and then fell apart after the deadline, similar to this year if I'm not mistaken. I remember the marginal move of getting an ineffective Cashner. I cant tell you what Dombrowski's plans were for 2020 as we'll never know. Maybe he had grand plans for offseason 2019-20 and selling off on 19 would have harmed that, who knows? Maybe those grand plans helped get him fired although I suspect what really got him fired was not collaborating with Romero, BO, and Ferreira, but again we dont know. I mean if his plan was to trade Mookie 2019 would have been the time to do so. Maybe his plan was to offer him huge money and keep the core of 2018 completely intact. We will never know. I think he didnt trade guys away for prospects in 2019 because his plans were to gear back up in 20, but that's just speculation on my part. It's quite possible he didnt care about going over the tax line and ownership did and that friction helped contributed to his quick demise.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2023 11:14:14 GMT -5
I'd still like to see the WAR that went out the door so I can see if it was costly or reasonable. I mean is Pearce for Espinal a loss in WAR, because if it is, then how meaningful is that stat in evaluating the Red Sox circumstances? I get the point about taking on Kimbrel's money and sending the prospects, but let's be real world here. They gave up Margot who is basically a 4th OF, Logan Allen who was at best a depth starter who gets pounded in the majors and lands back in the minors, a converted reliever who did the same and a utility man that didnt stick. But that's too much. Think of all the trades they could have made that they didnt for these amazing prospects. I'm sure they could have got Cy Young award winners or batting champs or maybe even a major league utility player. I think the opportunities lost over the loss of the prospects wasnt as huge as some anticipated. Then look at what Kimbrel was prior to the Sox acquiring him. He was merely the best closer in the game over the previous 5 years, dominant with Atlanta. As it was, Kimbrel hurt his thumb in 2016 and wasnt as good, was healthy and dominant in 2017, and then began to decline in 2018. Closer was also a position of need in 2016 as Uehara had aged out. So if I had a chance to get a premier closer for a future 4th OF and three fringe highly fungible players I do that deal in a heartbeat. Did the bwar stat kill the Sox on that deal? For the talk of lowering the payroll, what did that get the Sox? They lowered it, became irrelevant, grew the farm system well because they drafted much higher and never traded anybody, yet are woefully short in the pitching department and still will be left to have to spend huge money and/or trade from the farm to get front line starting pitching because for all the strides the system has made, front line pitching wont be coming from the farm any time soon if it does at all, which ironically was he situation Dombrowski walked into, so here we are again back at this point in the cycle. Again, we’re talking opportunity cost here. The opportunity cost of the prospects (they WERE valuable back then and could have netted you a different good player, it doesn’t matter if they turned out to be bench guys) and the opportunity cost of the money. They paid Craig Kimbrel $37 million for one and a half elite years, one and a half shaky years, and two lousy sets of playoff appearances. You really think there wasn’t a better way to use that prospect capital and all that money? It’s not a move that’s keeping me up at night, but it’s not some big win - it’s the definition of inefficient. Frankly, the Sale deal approaches that territory too for me, though I’m still probably pulling the trigger on it even in hindsight. But Moncada and/or Margot would have been pretty valuable in the 2019 run that never was and 2021 - they’re too easily dismissed around here. That's where we disagree. I don't think the opportunity cost for those other prospects were as high as you feel they were. We will never know for sure. Maybe one of them could have been an Aldo for Schwarber deal but who knows? And if it were would it have mattered. Perhaps Moncada and Margot might have helped in 2019. I don't think either would have moved the needle in 2021. Moncada had a good offensive year in 2019 but would have had to play 2b where he was a liability. But the pitching would likely still have been problematic, so then would I trade a division title and a World Championship team to maybe be a wild card in 19? I'd rather take a real championship and a real division title than a theoretical would card possibility and who is to say the Sox would have won in 19 had they never made the Sale deal? We can make projections of what could have been, and what should have been, but all we truly got is what actually happened. I was hesitant when the Sale deal happened but in retrospect I'm glad it did and wouldnt undo it. The extension is a different story, although I'd be lying if I said I was against it at the time as I figured there was a plan to give Mookie Mike Trout money and while I knew surgery was in Sales immediate future I didnt think he'd come back and get hurt every time the wind blows.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2023 7:30:30 GMT -5
I'd still like to see the WAR that went out the door so I can see if it was costly or reasonable.
I mean is Pearce for Espinal a loss in WAR, because if it is, then how meaningful is that stat in evaluating the Red Sox circumstances?
I get the point about taking on Kimbrel's money and sending the prospects, but let's be real world here. They gave up Margot who is basically a 4th OF, Logan Allen who was at best a depth starter who gets pounded in the majors and lands back in the minors, a converted reliever who did the same and a utility man that didnt stick. But that's too much. Think of all the trades they could have made that they didnt for these amazing prospects. I'm sure they could have got Cy Young award winners or batting champs or maybe even a major league utility player. I think the opportunities lost over the loss of the prospects wasnt as huge as some anticipated.
Then look at what Kimbrel was prior to the Sox acquiring him. He was merely the best closer in the game over the previous 5 years, dominant with Atlanta. As it was, Kimbrel hurt his thumb in 2016 and wasnt as good, was healthy and dominant in 2017, and then began to decline in 2018. Closer was also a position of need in 2016 as Uehara had aged out. So if I had a chance to get a premier closer for a future 4th OF and three fringe highly fungible players I do that deal in a heartbeat. Did the bwar stat kill the Sox on that deal?
For the talk of lowering the payroll, what did that get the Sox? They lowered it, became irrelevant, grew the farm system well because they drafted much higher and never traded anybody, yet are woefully short in the pitching department and still will be left to have to spend huge money and/or trade from the farm to get front line starting pitching because for all the strides the system has made, front line pitching wont be coming from the farm any time soon if it does at all, which ironically was he situation Dombrowski walked into, so here we are again back at this point in the cycle.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2023 23:12:32 GMT -5
No, the Sox arent a slam dunk to make the playoffs with Ohtani the way the Dodgers would be
The Angels won 73 games with Ohtani. The Sox won 78 games without Ohtani. Ohtani presence maybe gives them an additional 5 wins.
If I were Ohtani, I'd want to know that the Sox are bringing in 2 front line starters. If they do that could vault them to 90 win status and Ohtani would have a legit reason to think the Sox are a real playoff possibility, and the Sox do have some good position prospects on the way in Anthony. Mayer, and Teel.
I can't imagine the Sox would land Ohtani and stop there without fixing the pitching.
How they make the money work would be interesting, but I cant say that I'm overly worried about Henry's profit/loss statement.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2023 23:05:31 GMT -5
This really sums up why Dave Dombrowski is such a polarizing figure. When I look through this list of trades I see mostly what look like shrewd trades for key players in a championship team. On the other hand when I do the math I get this: Incoming : 41 bWAR; Payroll: $285+ million Outgoing: 50 bWAR; Payroll 110+ million (+ indicates payroll not documented in BB Ref; wouldn’t change basic numbers) Kind of odd, with so many writers covering the Red Sox, none of them ever thought to do this. BB Reference and Fangraphs make it so easy. I'll play devils advocate here. I'm sure they took a loss on the Thornburg/Shaw deal but what trades did they take a loss on? Maybe bWAR isnt the right stat to evaluate the deals. Timing and need should be part of the equation too rather than sine blanket WAR stat, but I'm curious, what trades are generating the negative figures and in reality was the trade bad?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2023 18:08:02 GMT -5
I think Whitlock would be hard pressed to pitch consistently on back to back days given his injury history. Houck could close, as could Winchowski, but they are guys capable of getting 6 plus outs which makes them more valuable in a multi-inning type of role rather than being pigeon holed as a 3 out closer which most closers are. I thought prior to this year that Schreiber could be a closer. Hes certainly not a multi inning reliever. My guess is they find somebody outside of the organization who is established and is a 3 out type of guy, but YMMV, and you certainly could be correct. Relievers are so volatile it's hard to project 2 years down the road. Very true. I guess my thought process would be more about the combination of skill and mental toughness a closer needs. Thinking back to Papelbon. He was a starter in the minors if memory serves, but was crazy enough to be a lights out closer as well. IMO, it isn’t just about whether they can get 6 outs, but it is about handling the added stress of the final 3. The ability to get 4+ outs only adds to the closer’s value. I am wrong in many things, so may be here too. Not necessarily. Your recall on Papelbon is spot on. He was a starter in the minors but the guy was kind of crazy and who knows if his focus would have lasted or repertoire of pitches would have held up as a starter. If you're talking about the traits you mentioned then there is a guy on the staff who would have the traits you mentioned to possibly be a really good closer, but his problem is that he's a guy whose ability to pitch every 5th day is too highly needed on an often injured staff and that guy is Nick Pivetta. I think he might check off the boxes you mentioned. Remember when the number 1 seed was on the line in 2021, who Cora turned to? Remember that Tampa game where he went 4 innings in relief? He was electric. I think he could be a really good closer if it came down to it. But at this time, the Sox need him to throw innings and it's tough to think theyll have enough innings eaters around if they retain Pivetta that they wont need him to eat innings.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2023 11:47:41 GMT -5
My guess is that Cora had a lot to do with his firing because of just that, but who was to blame for all the terrible fundamentals this year. who was to blame for all the poor hitting approaches? I don't think that was Bloom. Should be a lot of looking in the mirror. I would have thought the hitting and pitching coach would have been let go by now but that hasn't happened. Usually that's what happens (before a manager gets canned anyways). But the defense? Not sure which coaches were responsible for that mess. But if you're not going to fire the manager then usually it's the coaches that pay.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 19:22:56 GMT -5
This might be better in the Ohtani thread given this is the 24 rotation thread and Ohtani wont pitch until 25.
But I do believe the rumors if mutual interest.
I think the Sox might land him.
They're going to land somebody big among Yamamoto, Ohtani, Soto, Trout, or Snell.
Management saw all those empty seats. They know the Sox lack star power, a player that makes you want to watch.
I believe Ohtani has interest in Boston but not for the business reasons given.
So while I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up in Dodger Blue, I also think the Sox are a legit possibility.
As far as logical fit.....well the lineup was kind of lame for prolonged stretches of the season. Good Sox teams are at or near the top in runs scored so obviously Ohtani moves him toward the top.
I doubt Bloom would go after him. Like a lot of us, me included, he'd conclude that Ohtani isnt a logical fit for the roster, LH DH who cant pitch in 24.
They obviously need two top tier starters. I'm not sure how they'd afford both Ohtani and 2 top flight pitchers even with an open wallet, but it would be interesting to see them try.
I'm sure the Sox fired Bloom with the thought of hiring somebody who'll land a big fish ot two.
I have a feeling this offseason is going to be easily a lot more interesting than the past 2 seasons combined.
I think the Sox will go into with the intent of showing the Sox are back in business, which was what Duquette said when they signed Manny.
The Sox had become irrelevant with a lot of fan apathy and I think they know the Sox fill the stands when they have star power AND they win.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 19:01:12 GMT -5
This is an excellent point. On top of that, teams know most prospects they trade for aren’t going to amount to anything. But if you have a guy who looks like he might have a chance of being half decent, other teams will take him for a useful-if-unexciting MLB piece that will have a lower salary than an equivalent player from the FA market. Edit: just to add on to 04071318’s take, Caleb Hamilton is not an equivalent to those guys. These guys project to be Caleb Hamilton-quality, but there’s enough there that you can see them being more. They probably will turn into AAAA depth, but they might turn into an MLB bench piece, which are nice to have around at the league minimum. Exactly! Caleb Hamilton is not even close to that type of player. Logan Allen, Javier Guerra, Mauricio Dubon are those type of players. And Basabe. I get the point you're making. I just think that talent in the majors is kind of distributed like a pyramid and these guys at the bottom of the pyramid are much easier to find and replace. To Bloom's credit he found Reyes for practically nothing and he can pretty much do what Dubon does. The general point being that I woukdnt let a bottom of the pyramid type of guy stop me from getting somebody toward the top (with the school of thought being they are harder to find or replace).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 16:15:57 GMT -5
What riches did he lavish on the White Sox, though? Moncada has one really good year and has been a disappointment since. Kopech never became a top starter or a closer. He's been an enigma. Fact of the matter is that Bloom had he stayed would have had to throw big money at a starter or 2 and/or trade significant prospects to acquire a top pitcher. Just like the situation Dombrowski walked into, Bloom still would have had to acquire multiple front line starting pitchers because they're not in the system. The whole thing about the prospects traded away never amounted to anything is a little too simplistic. When you're always throwing in an extra player so easily, as Dombrowski was wont to do, even if those guys don't pan out, that's less prospect fodder for other potential trades. If you lose 3-4 decent prospects each year because DD said what the hell, we'll add Logan Allen (or whoever), then Logan Allen cannot be traded for someone else. And who knows, some of those guys might actually develop in Boston's system (especially the non-pitchers during those years). This is a much overlooked perspective. I get your point but I think those kinds of players are that hard to replace in a system, somebody who is fringy and has a ceiling of up and down player. To me that's like saying we cant make a trade that'll improve us because Caleb Hamilton, who fits the criteria of this type of player, is too much to give up. I understand it in value terms but am not positive I'd hold up a deal for a guy like that. Now if a guys ceiling is higher than the archetype I mentioned, then yeah, I agree, should not be a throw-in. But I'm not sure that's the case. I'm of the mind that fringy up and down players are not hard to replace, just scan the waiver wire, but you have to be accurate in that assessment when trading- is the guy going to be fringy or does he truly have a higher ceiling? That's a judgment call for sure.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 15:33:50 GMT -5
Name literally one creative, outside-the-box move he ever made? I don’t actually think Dombrowski was the root of all evil. The development system stalled out under Cherington, which is part of the reason the pipeline dried up. But I will never understand why people are impressed by him handing David Price $217 million or lavishing riches upon the White Sox and Padres for Sale and Kimbrel. He paid $1.25 on the dollar over, and over and over again and never did a thing to keep the well from going dry. What riches did he lavish on the White Sox, though? Moncada has one really good year and has been a disappointment since. Kopech never became a top starter or a closer. He's been an enigma. Fact of the matter is that Bloom had he stayed would have had to throw big money at a starter or 2 and/or trade significant prospects to acquire a top pitcher. Just like the situation Dombrowski walked into, Bloom still would have had to acquire multiple front line starting pitchers because they're not in the system.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 15:20:39 GMT -5
Name literally one creative, outside-the-box move he ever made? I don’t actually think Dombrowski was the root of all evil. The development system stalled out under Cherington, which is part of the reason the pipeline dried up. But I will never understand why people are impressed by him handing David Price $217 million or lavishing riches upon the White Sox and Padres for Sale and Kimbrel. He paid $1.25 on the dollar over, and over and over again and never did a thing to keep the well from going dry. What out of the box creative move did Bloom make? The Renfroe for JBJ and prospects move? Alright that was creative, but was it actually good? Only if opening up a gaping hole in RF for prospects that really didnt pan out is considered good. He got a prospect to take on Ottavino but the prospect has amounted to about nothing. Creativity is good, but results are better. Sometimes a straight line gets you where you need to go faster than a bunch of zig zag or circular motions.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 15:16:51 GMT -5
People look at Dombrowski as the guy who won three division championships. But his more impressive accomplishment is taking the greatest collection of young talent in franchise history and reducing it to a three-year window. Here is a list of the trades Dombrowski made while with the Red Sox...Which of these trades do you specifically disagree with? www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.htmlThe Thornburg deal was bad but not to the proportion it's been blown up to. Other than that I certainly dont object to the other deals. And I certainly dont see anybody on that list who would have mattered much in the past few years. That's not a bad trade percentage at all.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 15:09:13 GMT -5
I don't deny the appeal of someone like Soto, but at some point as an organization you have to stop chasing at baubles and actually build a functioning roster. All Soto does at this point is exacerbate the LHH and LF/1B/DH issues that are rapidly building up. I'm sure that you could alleviate those problems in other ways, maybe to get some of the pitching we need. Is anyone ready to trade Casas as the centerpiece in a deal for ace-level pitching, if indeed any suitors are entering the market with that type of quality they are ready to part with? Devers, including paying some of his salary for the next decade? Certainly Yoshida could be jettisoned. Duran? I'm not saying all of them, but a couple certainly have to go, almost regardless of what the return is. I agree we have way too many left-handed hitting outfielders, especially. I started this argument but I have no interest in moving Mayer or Anthony for Soto. I do think we try to move Verdugo and Yoshida for pitching. Casas is not going anywhere. I really hate the idea of someone being JUST a DH. I was, as most of you, excited to see what Yoshida could do, and I believe he will be better next year after experiencing the number of games and all the flying, but I'd explore it. IMO we need a young star like Soto but only if we stay away from moving our top 2 prospects. Was David Ortiz just a DH? I get your point but wow, what a DH Ortiz was. Soto could eventually be in that class or he could man LF the way Manny did for a long time. If Manny wasnt a DH, then I dont know who is, lol. Hard to imagine Soto being much worse.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 12:53:24 GMT -5
(Pasting to a more appropriate thread) I don't consider myself either a Dombrowski hater or a Bloom stan, but I wonder how differently the former would be perceived here if Henry hadn't fired him immediately after 2019, but instead gave him the opportunity to save his neck by getting back under the CBT. Chaim got to navigate the aftermath of Dombrowski's decisions in his final year here and wear the messy consequences (for which it's clear a lot of people never forgave him), while Dave skated and retained his "guy with the magic touch" mystique. Or he succeeds and *is* the guy with the magic touch? True, there's a possibility the Sox would have done better with Dombrowski still around. The only disagreement I have with what Tomase wrote in the sentence posted above is that I dont feel that he built the core of the 16-17-18 Sox, but he correctly finished off the team, not dissimilar to how Dan Duquette built the core of the 04 Sox and the masterfully completed the puzzle. Everything else he wrote in that sentence was accurate, though, so I dont understand the eye rolling. He had a hand in building the 94 Expos although it should be noted he dealt 26 year old Randy Johnson away, he did build the Marlins and rebuilt them into the core that eventually won in 03 and it cant be disputed that the Tigers have been brutally bad since the 90s and that the only extended time the Tigers didnt suck was from 2006 - 2014. This will tick off people here who only like modern ivy leaguers as their chief decision maker, but when it comes to GMs, Schuerholz and Gillick are on the HOF, and deservedly so. Eventually Theo will get in. And I think of today's GMs, Andrew Friedman is compiling a HOF resume, but I think eventually Dombrowski will get ample consideration. Would Dombrowski have kept the Sox competitive while keeping the best parts of a farm going? We'll never know. Maybe, maybe not, but based on his track record I wouldnt rule it out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 12:34:26 GMT -5
The fact that there's an actual statistical case to be made to give the Gold Glove to Story despite only playing 2 months is kinda insane Going by that chart, I'd give it to Witt. I wouldnt take it away based on games Story didnt play because you'd have to project he played those games to top Witt's figures, which he would have had he played, but he didnt.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 12:30:35 GMT -5
The 2025 closer is likely somebody who is not in the organization currently. Respectfully I disagree. Between Whitlock, Houck, or Winck, I would think they could be groomed under Martin and Jansen to learn… Whitlock did it before with some success, and Houck does great the first time through an order… I think Whitlock would be hard pressed to pitch consistently on back to back days given his injury history. Houck could close, as could Winchowski, but they are guys capable of getting 6 plus outs which makes them more valuable in a multi-inning type of role rather than being pigeon holed as a 3 out closer which most closers are. I thought prior to this year that Schreiber could be a closer. Hes certainly not a multi inning reliever. My guess is they find somebody outside of the organization who is established and is a 3 out type of guy, but YMMV, and you certainly could be correct. Relievers are so volatile it's hard to project 2 years down the road.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 12:21:04 GMT -5
Alex Speier had a piece today on the GM/CBO search: www.bostonglobe.com/2023/10/04/sports/red-sox-head-of-baseball-operations-search/?event=event25For all the pearl-clutching about Cora returning as manager and instead of the new GM/CBO making the decision, as Alex notes, he/she will inherit a front office staff that's been there a long time: "Additionally, if the Sox hire someone from outside the organization, the new person will inherit a senior leadership team of assistant general managers as well as executive and senior vice presidents that have been together with the Red Sox in many cases for 15-20 years. That has been and can be a strength. Assistant GMs Eddie Romero and Raquel Ferreira, executive VP Brian O’Halloran, and others have been part of championships built under Theo Epstein, Cherington, and Dombrowski. They’ve been adaptable to different personalities and offered stability through change. Yet around the game, some wonder whether the Sox need to add more top-level decision-makers from outside the organization to provide fresh perspective. Is there too much continuity? Does that impede adaptability in pursuit of sustained success?To Chaim's credit, he seemed to integrate with this group reasonably well. But when there have been various leaks over front office decisions (including when right after Chaim was fired), you have to wonder where those have come from... I feel like as a new GM I'd be more paranoid over the front office staff who have been there forever and are tight with all the Boston media, compared to the accomplished manager who will occasionally get moody if I'm not making short-term moves to improve the team. The leaks say to me that he didn't integrate with this group reasonably well - or at least, not all of them. Over the four years, there were multiple reports from unnamed people within the baseball ops group questioning his judgment or philosophy or whatever. This is also a cautionary tale for the next Chief. If ownership demands that "these X executives stay" that could be a problem only because those people have been there so long and have established histories, work process etc, that this new CEO could be viewed by them as "We're the platoon here, this is just the new LT we've got to break in or push out." Ownership's already mandating Cora stays, at least in year 1. If the exec doesn't have the ability to clean house if s/he sees fit, they should run away or be very, very savvy at creating their own (moated) executive team. Now that you mention it, THAT might have what lead Dombrowski to lose his job, not necessarily a bloated payroll. I do recall reading that Dombrowski had his own inner circle that included Frsnk Wren and Tony LaRussa and that the long time executives might have been shut out of the decision making process, and that might be what really got him fired.
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