SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2020 17:31:52 GMT -5
Yeah, let's just guess and assume we're right. Not sure who this is directed at but if it's me, are you seriously arguing that you think there's no correlation between improved strength and conditioning in athletes and the prevention of sports related injuries? My guess is that Chris Sale, and well the army of coaches, trainers, doctors, etc in charge of maximizing his efficacy as a pitcher, are on top of the situation.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2020 17:20:35 GMT -5
I'd be curious if the recent medical issue bumped Graterol down. Yep: I still have this sinking feeling that in October of 2022 I'll be watching Graterol strike out the side in the 9th to win the world series and we'll be wondering if Chaim made the right call. I know he hasn't pitched in the minors a ton, but if they go pure reliever with him, 2020 is a better prediction.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2020 17:14:05 GMT -5
Trevor Bauer: "You make a lot of money up front, but you lose a generation of fans" 30 MLB owners and Rob Manfred: "So just to confirm, we get money, now? Great, we love it." You know, I feel like this just might work as a metaphor for some broader forces in society... Welcome to the resistance, Trevor.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2020 11:24:10 GMT -5
Pillar and Puello give us two guys that can field all 3 OF positions and hit LHP. I like having that sort of depth. Pillar may be average in CF now but he’s probably crush it in either corner in a pinch. Puello doesn’t have a long MLB track record either so it’s nice to have multiple options there. This is the kind of smart depth building that never happened under Dombrowski. I'd presumably be happy to see it, had the Red Sox not killed the part of my soul that experiences happiness.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2020 11:12:42 GMT -5
If March Madness games were taking four hours and people were tuning them out and they kept making games less accessible to modern technology and the NCAA was all "let's expand to 128 teams, that'll cultivate more interest" then I'd be frustrated at them, too. I'm not proposing that an expanded playoff schedule is an answer to pace of play issues or their insane anti-marketing. I'm just saying I like the concept of expanding the playoffs, relative to leave them the same or contracting them. Like, fixing your toilet won't help with the leaky roof, and that crack in the foundation might make the whole thing a moot point anyway, but still, everything else being equal, you'd probably like to have a working toilet.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2020 10:05:44 GMT -5
In the NBA, the best team almost always wins. Are you saying no one watches? March Madness has also been somewhat popular historically. So has the f'ing lottery for that matter. People do not understand and do not care about statistical probabilities or the implications thereof. I get the basis for you not liking the system, but at some point this just becomes a "uhhh, well actually, the energy density required to run the Iron Man suit would never..." nerd shit. Well, whatever, people are enjoying the movie. If you can deal with the parts that don't make sense, cool, and if you can't, go watch something you do like.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2020 9:58:40 GMT -5
This is a disturbing way to begin the day: thinking “Trevor Bauer is saying something very smart.” I am shook. Don't worry, he gets to some reactionary silliness at the end by freaking out over the idea of moving the mound a couple feet. Mostly this just speaks to how obviously bad MLB's media strategy is, unless of course the goal to to squeeze every penny out of this enterprise now and (let someone else) worry about the consequences later, which again is obviously their mode of operation here.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2020 9:37:52 GMT -5
But it's far more likely for teams with losing records to beat the best teams in baseball than it is in other sports, as has been said repeatedly in this thread. So that turns MLB into a joke unless you really think it's a good look for a team with a losing record to win a championship. It will happen. Didn't we already cross this rubicon about three SF Giants championships ago? I don't get what everyone is being so protective about. The system hasn't put the best teams in the championship for several decades now. Honestly, there's enough things for me to be mad about. I can choose to just enjoy the big dumb sports tournament and not worry that the winner might not be the "correct" one (which by the way if the best team always won, no one would watch). Like that's a gift I can give to myself, and honestly, why wouldn't I? Because I care about the purity of a sport that isn't pure, never was pure, and, notably, doesn't matter at all?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2020 9:29:07 GMT -5
Trevor Bauer: "You make a lot of money up front, but you lose a generation of fans"
30 MLB owners and Rob Manfred: "So just to confirm, we get money, now? Great, we love it."
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 11, 2020 17:10:14 GMT -5
Ok, reading the Downs page bums me out even more. I looked at his stolen base numbers and thought he might have a speed/power game. But he may end with average/below average speed? Sigh. I'd wait until you watch him play a game before you start judging his abilities I think a speed score from a reputable source of scouting info is probably a little more bankable than just trying to eyeball it yourself.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 11, 2020 15:03:22 GMT -5
Yeah, and what would really be the harm if somewhere in that run of bad management, Felix Hernandez got to start a postseason game? Think of how unfair it would be to all those Seattle fans to have to sit through that, knowing they team didn't really earn it. Thankfully they were spared that hardship. They probably would've started Erik Bedard. I don't understand how everyone went from blind acceptance of the totally artificial financial constraints that "forced" a trade of Mookie Betts, to being completely head in the sand about what MLB's actual job is here. They're trying to provide a compelling experience to fans, not satisfy some high-minded ideal about who deserves to win a championship. When you're filling out your brackets next month with everyone in your office, you can remind yourself how much the average fan really loves and demands a statistically sound method of determining a league champion.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 11, 2020 14:54:55 GMT -5
Tell that to the Mariners fan, who probably doesn't see it that way. I mean, it sucks that he roots for an incompetent team? They don't lack resources, they've just been poorly run. Yeah, and what would really be the harm if somewhere in that run of bad management, Felix Hernandez got to start a postseason game? Think of how unfair it would be to all those Seattle fans to have to sit through that, knowing they team didn't really earn it. Thankfully they were spared that hardship.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 11, 2020 13:45:39 GMT -5
TO add to my basketball point: They just aren't similar. The basketball regular season is important because seeding in basketball is so important. The fourth-best team in baskeball in the East will almost always lose to the best team in the East. The fourth-best team in the American League will beat the best team in the American League at least 45% of the time. Having an upstart team in the World Series that got hot at the right time every so often is fun - that's true in any sport. Having the best teams rarely in the World Series is bad.The current system almost never puts the two best teams in the World Series! I don't see how you can get the two best teams to the World Series on any kind of regular basis without a seeding system that heavily favors the best teams.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 11, 2020 9:45:55 GMT -5
"Rob, one of the league's richest teams just salary dumped the best player they developed in 40 years, fans are furious, how can we fix this?" "I dunno, maybe we could find a way for them to make the playoffs when they go 82-80!" Your World Champion 2006 Cardinals won 83 regular season games and the world didn't spin off its axis.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 11, 2020 9:42:19 GMT -5
The NBA regular season is a complete joke, do you really want that? It won't ever be like that, because the sports are fundamentally different. You know who's overwhelmingly likely to be in the NBA championship before they play the first regular season game. People weren't giving the Nats a real shot at the World Series even after they won NLDS! The NBA regular season doesn't matter that much because the seeding doesn't matter that much and most of the teams don't have a chance anyway. In baseball, seeding potentially can be a big deal, and if it is, that creates more meaningful races and games during the regular season. The bottom line is that baseball has never had to compete harder for the attention of its fans, and fans pay attention when there's something to play for. Expanded playoffs gives more teams more things to play for.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 11, 2020 8:39:06 GMT -5
No, the diehards will not always be there. I quit the NHL, I've quit MLB before. Do you not enjoy postseason baseball?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 21:51:23 GMT -5
I like getting Verdugo & Downs. But after listening to Bloom talk tonight I continue to be unimpressed & don’t understand how anybody who watched/listened to him could be.I dunno man maybe that's more of a you problem than a Bloom problem.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 21:39:19 GMT -5
Would you really suggest baseball go back to that system? Yeah, it's a more "true" result and I guess therefore more satisfying to a handful of baseball nerds, but is it good for the game? I don't see how. I'll leave someone else to figure out the ideal slotting system/etc, but in general, an expanded playoff structure with more levels of slotting yields more meaningful regular season games. Baseball needs that. If you thought trading Betts was a bad/financially driven decision now, just wait until they let more teams into the playoffs. Teams will have even more incentive to trade a star like Betts if they can settle for a high-80s win team and still grab a playoff spot....And more marginal teams will have a reason to trade for him. That's all (don't call it a) salary cap stuff anyway, adding more playoff teams is a secondary factor at best and probably not even that.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 18:42:54 GMT -5
Right, this is the same thing as before. The Academy reported to DoD that he does not fall under the new policy because it does not apply retroactively and he's already been commissioned. That got reported incorrectly as his waiver request getting rejected by multiple outlets at first. His request for a waiver is still pending on the desks of the Secretaries of the Navy and of Defense. It never ends. If Obama were in charge, this we be resolved by now.I'm sure he'd have seen to it personally.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 18:17:04 GMT -5
Mathematically impossible in baseball. You'd need a 50 game series. It worked for almost 100 years when there was only the World Series. The first round was 154 games. Would you really suggest baseball go back to that system? Yeah, it's a more "true" result and I guess therefore more satisfying to a handful of baseball nerds, but is it good for the game? I don't see how. I actually love the pick your opponent idea. The expansion to 7 teams, though, is garbage, as is giving a first round bye to just one division winner. You just can't do that as long as schedules are imbalanced. I'll leave someone else to figure out the ideal slotting system/etc, but in general, an expanded playoff structure with more levels of slotting yields more meaningful regular season games. Baseball needs that.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 18:08:56 GMT -5
Yeah, that’s the downside. Also that it eliminates some of the incentive to win your division, and along with it some of the traditional “division race” drama. On the other hand, I loved watching the Nationals win, so I wouldn’t be averse to a system that brings us more of that kind of story. I'm always of the opinion that if the best (or almost best) team didn't win, there's something wrong with the playoff structure. But they're eventually going to make me stop watching because it's all about the people with zero attention span who will never pay or support a team that isn't winning. Screw everyone else. Mathematically impossible in baseball. You'd need a 50 game series.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 13:27:25 GMT -5
My point that you're vastly underrating the offensive difference between Betts and Crawford. Betts is a gifted hitter with amazing contact and plate skills, Carl Crawford needed like five years in the big leagues to become an even kinda good hitter. They're as different as hitters as Wade Boggs and Jose Canseco. My point is that based on Offensive value, Betts is not a one of the top 5 players in baseball. He is well rounded, and adds value from defense and speed. I would not want to pay a 36 year old based on value from speed and defense. I chose Crawford because much of his "value" was also based on the secondary skills, and those can drop off at age 30.Being a good defender to start off is not a disadvantage when aging! It's not like Miguel Cabrera was ever a defensively valuable piece but that doesn't mean he's insulated from defensive decline, it means he goes from being a marginal 1B to a true DH only, whereas Mookie can steadily decline for years and still be a passible corner outfielder in his mid 30s. Crawford, fine. I'll counter with Brett Gardner, Ichiro, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Beltran... we can play the game of picking individual players who fit our argument all day. But if you're asking for a player -- a real player -- who's more likely to age well than Betts, I like I don't know who you're even looking for. Trout, ok, fine. Who else are you so much more confident in, though?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 11:06:28 GMT -5
He's obviously not moving the needle on this specific team which probably needs to find something in the neighborhood of 400 decent innings somewhere, but I honestly think Collin McHugh is average in general and possibly better than that with a normal baseball. And there's a chance he's toast, but this is the right team to give a chance to someone who might be toast. He's the only one on that list I'd give an MLB deal to without much hesitation. He's a decent bullpen play, but I think only that. He was given one more run as a starter by the Astros last year, it went badly, and they never gave him another shot at it despite churning through a bunch of other guys and eventually going out and getting Greinke. Rich Hill exists so never say never I guess, but within the realm of realistic outcomes I see him as a pure reliever at this point.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 10:50:21 GMT -5
Ok! Crawford through age 26: .293/.330/.435, 23.6 bWAR Betts through age 26: .301/.374/.519, 42.0 bWAR Great comp, very similar. I am not comparing their production, as obviously Mookie has greater power. But my point is that where much value comes from defense and baserunning, it stops at some point, and for Crawford, it stopped at age 29. Obviously the drop for Crawford was from a lower baseline, but in terms of "flags" that is one I would look at. My point that you're vastly underrating the offensive difference between Betts and Crawford. Betts is a gifted hitter with amazing contact and plate skills, Carl Crawford needed like five years in the big leagues to become an even kinda good hitter. They're as different as hitters as Wade Boggs and Jose Canseco.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 10, 2020 10:36:26 GMT -5
Still, he was a big strikeout guy who had an injury history before the trade. There were some red flags. What's Mookie's? That he can't hit home runs to right field? Career OPS away from Fenway is .858, is average is .285, and with value created by speed and defense, just look at Carl Crawford as to what happens to value if those slip at age 31 -33. www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bettsmo01&year=Career&t=b#hmvis::noneOk! Crawford through age 26: .293/.330/.435, 23.6 bWAR Betts through age 26: .301/.374/.519, 42.0 bWAR Great comp, very similar.
|
|
|