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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 29, 2023 10:56:34 GMT -5
Some stuff that stood out to me on the ZiPS projections... - I think Szymborski has just the right tone about this team: "The offense highlights the awkward situation the Sox are in... To upgrade on this group, you need to find 3–4-WAR players, and those don’t come cheap. Boston would be better off with a few more sixes and zeroes on the depth chart." There just aren't any obvious upgrades for the offense unless they get Ohtani or make a big trade; otherwise, the best they can really do is tread water and hope things break right with underperformers rebounding (Story, Devers, Yoshida) and young guys taking a step up. - The step down from Verdugo to Abreu is significant: 2.2 to 1.5 WAR, and that's with ZiPS giving Abreu a very generous defensive projection (better than Story and equal to Rafaela...?). - David Hamilton with a very generous projection on defense as well, and overall has him at 1.6 WAR. - Would have liked to see Devers get better than a 3.6 WAR projection. That's just not what you need from a franchise cornerstone. Even his 80th percentile projection (5.1) is fairly underwhelming.- Story gets a nice bouceback projection, all the way to a 102 OPS+. I'll take the over on 2.2 WAR if he really hits that well. - Just a 1.5 WAR projection for Duran, and an 80th percentile projection of only 2.6, even though he was on a 4 WAR pace last season. I wonder what the team's own projections say? And with regard to some of the trade talk here, I wonder what other teams' projections say? - The best catcher projection goes to Kyle Teel (1.5 WAR). #2 is... Ronaldo Hernandez (1.0). Wong is third at 0.8. - ZiPS is not too into Kutter Crawford; has him at only a 101 ERA-. Still likes Whitlock though (84). I'm not the biggest user of projections but the Devers one stands out above all to me. If Devers is only putting up 3.6 WAR in year two of his mega deal that contract is going to get ugly real quick. I would say that I believe the projection is low IMO. sure he put up 3.1 fWAR in 2023 but the prior two he put up a combined 9 and is just 27 years for the 2024 season. I think and certainly hope he comes closer to 4.5 than 3.1 but honestly even a 4-5 WAR would be semi disappointing considering the giant contract he got, to me it feels like those type of deals should only be for elite top of the market type guys. 4 WAR is still really good but would like to see Devers ascend to a higher tier than what we've seen rather than stagnate if not regress. 3.5-4 WAR is what his AAV would point to, but his bat has the potential to go nuclear any season and then you’re getting a ton of surplus value. Then over the next decade inflation will get to work and that 31M won’t feel as huge and the $/WAR will only go up. IMO the biggest thing for Devers will be his drive. Does he want to be one of the greats? Will he work his ass off to improve or be content with coasting and raking in the $300M? With his body type it will be hard for him to stay at 3B, but you obviously would like him to for as long as he possibly can. I hope after a down year post payday, he’s eager to prove that he’s one of the best players in baseball.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 29, 2023 10:31:31 GMT -5
Wouldn’t have guessed that catcher would be their worst projected position. The league average wOBA was .318 this year and Wong’s xwOBA was .274. McGuire’s was a hilarious .238. The Red Sox had a sub-80 wRC+ at C and got substantial luck relative to expected outcomes. Wong also had a -4 Fielding Run Value per Statcast. In my eyes, Garver is a slam dunk fit here. DH insurance for Yoshida, great bat for the C position, and in an admittedly small sample he was close to average defensively. As a bonus he’s a big fly ball pull hitting RHB. I really would like to see him signed.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 28, 2023 10:40:53 GMT -5
With the Mariners having pitching depth would anyone trade Verdugo for Ray + either Woo or Miller? Ray should be ready by the all star break and has 3 years and 73M left with an opt out after this year. If he shows he healthy in the second half he may opt out of 2 and 50M left. I would take this trade in a millisecond which means it’s probably too little to give up. Woo and Miller have a ton of control and are already valuable as starters. One of those alone seems like a lot to give up for one year of Verdugo even if you take on Ray’s full salary.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 28, 2023 9:47:46 GMT -5
I’m sick today so I could really use the adrenaline boost of a signing or trade. It’s all about me Craig. Don’t let me down.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 27, 2023 16:10:06 GMT -5
Love to see local kids break into the industry with the Sox. Breslow’s army of pitching nerds is being assembled
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nomar
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Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Nov 27, 2023 13:06:29 GMT -5
Mentally preparing for Stroman/ERod I hope the Sox make a real run at Imanaga though Do you mean one of Stroman/E-rod, or both? They would not be my preferred options - especially if they only acquire one starter - but if you got both (let's say in lieu of paying Yamamoto/Snell/Montgomery like double their combined $) you could run out a rotation of: Bello - Sale - Stroman - E-Rod - Pivetta On paper that's fairly competent, even if there's not really an ace (barring a Leap from Bello or a return to form by Sale). I meant it as an and/or, but I do agree that is a solid rotation especially considering there’s Crawford (who I would personally have 5th), Houck, and Whitlock once injuries arise. Obviously Stroman rubs just about everyone the wrong way in due time, but I think he’s gettable on a 2 year deal which you can’t say for most 2.5 WAR starters in this class. 2 mentally fragile SPs in one signing period might be tough from a risk tolerance standpoint, but so are gargantuan deals for non aces like the top tier, so pick your poison.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 27, 2023 11:08:22 GMT -5
Love to see them pry Grissom away. It seems they are not sure what they have with him. They are even thinking of trying him the outfield because of his athletisim. Love his tools and would like that to be pursued but to me the Braves are one of the saviest organizations and they've always liked this kid. I've been looking at rosters myself for a right-handed hitting second basemen. Not many turn me on or are available. The free agents are pretty terrible. If they can turn Verdugo+ into Grissom I’ll all for it. I’m a bit worried about his glove even at 2B, but there’s upside at least. I wouldn’t mind being able to try Yorke and Grissom out at 2B over the next couple of years and seeing who can stick there long term.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 27, 2023 11:00:24 GMT -5
Mentally preparing for Stroman/ERod
I hope the Sox make a real run at Imanaga though
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 23, 2023 23:54:59 GMT -5
If they did sign Yamamoto and Imanaga, would they go to a 6-man rotation to accommodate for the change from 5-6 days in-between starts to 4-5 days? We've been wondering about that over in the Rotation thread, not just for Japanese imports. Sale for sure, and some of the younger chaps, could also benefit from that. The trick is you'll have one less reliever on the staff, so it helps if at least two of the starters are flexible enough to throw a couple innings of relief when their start might be skipped due to the vagaries of the schedule. if you said “ok there’s 6 starters,” there’s still a significant chance you’re down to 5 at some point in March or April. I’d hope not but that is the reality in baseball today and especially for the current members of this staff.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 23, 2023 23:27:10 GMT -5
Should be interesting who they get rid of , verdugo and ? Keep Abreu , I don’t know if Rafaella has enough seasoning at the plate I personally doubt they will pencil in either Rafaela or Abreu as a starter. They’ll inevitably get their shots when injuries arise like Duran did last year, and whether or not they capitalize is up to them.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2023 19:51:40 GMT -5
Not commenting on the hypothetical trade as a whole, but FWIW I wouldn’t trade 5 years of Crawford for one year of Cease straight up. I think there’s around a 25-33% chance that he has a better ERA next season anyway. With the same amount of innings? I'd be shocked if Crawford throws 180 next season. No I doubt that for sure, but still 5 years of him for one of Cease isn’t really doing it for me. Cease will get the same deal Nola did a year later. So giving up a significant asset only to pay someone what they could pay a good FA this year doesn’t scream “value” to me
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2023 19:40:41 GMT -5
Outlandish hypothetical here, but if you were GM and could acquire Luis Robert Jr. and Dylan Cease for a package of- Roman Anthony Miguel Bleis Nick Yorke Kutter Crawford John Schreiber do you pull the trigger? You can probably get more in total if you dealt Robert and Cease separately, so I would say no. Not really much reason to package those 2 up. Not commenting on the hypothetical trade as a whole, but FWIW I wouldn’t trade 5 years of Crawford for one year of Cease straight up. I think there’s around a 25-33% chance that he has a better ERA next season anyway.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2023 19:26:31 GMT -5
My issue with him is that he gets a lot of his offense from walks, which won’t translate to the MLB since he’s not a threat to hit the ball hard. He doesn’t limit Ks that well either. It’s hard for me to see him making the jump successfully but I hope I’m wrong. I kind of view Teel similarly offensively, but he’s a potentially plus glove at C so that’s a bit different. Very strongly disagree with the implication that Kyle Teel isn't a threat to hit the ball hard. Yeah I meant that as more of an ISOp thing for him. His ISO in A and AA in a small sample was .107 and K Rate was 21% so we’ll see what next year holds. His LD% was extremely good so if that’s the case then he’ll be in good shape especially relative to his peers at C.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2023 13:11:02 GMT -5
I don’t want Edman. Not a good hitter, wasn’t good at 2B last year, had an outlier 2022, and is too expensive because of it. I said the same thing at the trade deadline so I already know many here like him, but there’s a reason Cards fans would rather trade him than Donovan even after surgery. For his career he's +21/+25 OAA/DRS at 2B. He's also +16/+10 at SS and +10/+3 at 3B. I feel pretty confident the slightly negative numbers at 2B last season are not predictive. He's been very consistent on offense too, between a .308 and .316 xwOBA every season since 2020 and 89-106 wRC+. He looks to me like about as much of a dead cinch for 2-3 WAR as any player can be. I love the roster fit too: he has a 117 wRC+ against lefties which pairs well with Valdez, and he can play a solid SS and 3B - and even OF. The roster is a little rigid defensively right now and a sort of rich man's Brock Holt is just what they could use. Drury is more expensive and has a much worse Steamer projection (0.8 WAR vs Edman's 2.3). He's also 3 years older. The only reason I can see for preferring Drury is that he'd cost less in trade chips to acquire.
His cost in prospects won’t be that of a defense first platoon 2B and that’s basically how I view him. And yes, the cost is precisely why I prefer Drury. I get the appeal of Edman, but I’m really just not interested in weakening the farm substantially for anyone with a .310 xwOBA.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2023 13:04:57 GMT -5
Was a bit surprised that Chris' droth rose. Appreciate the kind words. Feel like I can speak some on this one. After a pretty nasty slump in the early summer he was really good again at the end of the year. .283/.433/.396 from 8/8 onward. He's not the most physical-looking guy, and I was getting a little concerned that he was wearing down during the slump, so being able to get through that full season and make an adjustment to be playing well in the last quarter was really a positive development. A big thing was also that his defense went from a concern to a potential positive. He's not a rangy guy but he's got really good hands, a quick release, he's really good at getting good jumps on pop-ups which bodes well if he needs to play the outfield in a utility role. The bat control and pitch recognition were as good as hoped. He's very good at not chasing bad pitches, he's not getting himself out. A development point in year two is going to be hitting the ball with authority more consistently. My issue with him is that he gets a lot of his offense from walks, which won’t translate to the MLB since he’s not a threat to hit the ball hard. He doesn’t limit Ks that well either. It’s hard for me to see him making the jump successfully but I hope I’m wrong. I kind of view Teel similarly offensively, but he’s a potentially plus glove at C so that’s a bit different.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2023 8:49:29 GMT -5
Unless they make a splash with Adames, I think Drury as a rental would be best. His bat fits the lineup better than most other options and his glove is passable. Tommy Edman the guy I want. Plus defender at 2B/SS or CF, decent arm. Switch hitter, low K rate, steals some bags. I don’t want Edman. Not a good hitter, wasn’t good at 2B last year, had an outlier 2022, and is too expensive because of it. I said the same thing at the trade deadline so I already know many here like him, but there’s a reason Cards fans would rather trade him than Donovan even after surgery.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 21, 2023 23:00:58 GMT -5
Unless they make a splash with Adames, I think Drury as a rental would be best. His bat fits the lineup better than most other options and his glove is passable.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 21, 2023 16:57:49 GMT -5
Am I the only one here who wants Paxton back for 1 year, 7-8 million? Assuming they don’t get two of the bigger name starters, I think one of Paxton or Montas would be a nice upside play.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 21, 2023 15:32:38 GMT -5
Cards should get a lot of average innings out of Lynn/Gibson. Solid rotation filler. Add them to Mikolas and you got an older group of innings eaters I believe the plan for STL was to add 3 starters- so 1 to go It's always interesting seeing what others teams fan bases are looking for. There's a notable Red Sox name on this fan's list of possible Cardinals free agent/trade targets, and it's not who you'd expect... I’m in on Crawford. I certainly don’t want him moved before Houck and honestly probably even Whitlock at this point. Plus he’s controlled through his age 32 season already.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 19, 2023 11:59:49 GMT -5
I’ll pass on that and on any FA pitcher near that contract outside of Yamamoto. If Monty is going to be getting 7 years vs 5, I’ll prefer Gray or Imanaga
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 18, 2023 15:07:24 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine He also only slugged .337 with us. There is not a prayer of his OBP staying that high going forward unless he starts doing more damage. Even in his seasons when he was doing damage his OBP was more like .340, which isn't bad, but it makes a case for regression. He was also a terrible defensive 2B last year; the eye test said he was miserable at first and settled into merely below average, and the (more temporally blunt) defensive metrics just say "terrible". Even his relatively rosy Steamer projection has him at a .327 OBP next year, and that's with the SLG rebounding to .383. Steamer is also puzzlingly projecting a defensive improvement next year to above his career averages, which is how his projection gets to 0.9 fWAR in 250 PA. Urias isn't a bad gamble, but he would be exactly that: a gamble, at $~5 million, penciled into a starting role on a team that should really be able to do better. And if we're gambling, I would rather gamble again on a guy like Mondesi, who would be cheaper, defends much better and can back up SS, has speed, and who has higher overall upside if healthy. Yes you would need another 2B to go with him, but the same would go for Urias or you'd also be asking for trouble. And meanwhile, Mondesi's strengths would translate much better to a bench role. Campbell looks like a solid middle reliever with multiple options and nearly all of his team control remaining, compared to 2 arb years and 1 option for Urias. It's not as simple as "2B for a reliever" when there's such a disparity in cost and control, and there are fewer questions around Campbell's ability to be productive in his role. So, pending what happens at 2B, I like this trade quite a bit. Yeah he hit those 2 grand slams in back to back PAs then said “my work here is done”
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 18, 2023 8:30:52 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine I agree that there’s a solid chance he’s a serviceable 2B next year, but at the same time his EV was 3 ticks lower this year, and his Max EV, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, LD%, and Contact% all took big dips. And now 2 teams have willingly given him up despite him being a cheap option at 2B. They must not have liked what they saw.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 18, 2023 0:05:21 GMT -5
Looks like Campbell has a nasty slider but the fastball could use some work. Maybe Breslow sees a path there.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 17, 2023 21:51:41 GMT -5
Edman had a negative UZR at 2B this year and isn’t a good hitter either. I know he is a bigger name, but I would rather aim higher offensively.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 17, 2023 21:06:45 GMT -5
This is fine but I hope Whit Merrifield isn’t plan A Very hard agree
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