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Post by ramireja on Oct 10, 2020 23:58:45 GMT -5
I was looking back at some old threads and noticed steveofbradenton started an off season thread analyzing the Sox competition in the AL east for the upcoming 2013 season. He ended his first post by bolding "Is this, and maybe next year, their best chance to win a World Championship?" Don't know if steve ever got congratulated for his prediction and optimism following a dismal 2012 year. Here's one from me 8 years later. In the just completed division series thread, unitspin mentioned it will be fun to watch the Yankees find 3 starters and try to get under the cap. Here is their current situation: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hl2xgQQReB8qPSoa2YAaDcBfkw0qYeFQFizVP3m2JZs/edit#gid=1520401900As far as starters, remember Severino will be coming back from injury and German will be returning from his suspension. Montgomery and Deivi Garcia arrived with some success and could fill spots. I am sure they are hoping Tanaka will return on a more team friendly contract. They also will probably be in play for the same incentive contracts we have discussed for the Sox like Kluber and Hill. Looking at Cot's, there is a lot of money coming off the books next year and Cashman has performed well (minus the championships). Cot's has them with almost 75MM to spend (although some of that will be arbitration raises). I expect a strong battle in the division next year. As James Dunne said in the SoxProspects ranking discussion thread, Tampa looks to be strong for awhile. After all their years in the basement, it will be strange to see Boston and NY trying to overtake Tampa. Its worth noting that they have a lot of core players eligible for arbitration (Judge, Gleyber, Sanchez, Urshela, Chad Green, Frazier, etc.) and they won't be necessarily cheap. I think of the $75M in spending money...about $40M needs to go to arb players. Thats not careful math on my part, but I do know its a significant chunk, so I think their available $ for FAs may not be what it seems. It will be interesting to see the extent they lean on the likes of Severino, German, and Deivi Garcia for the rotation.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 8, 2020 11:36:18 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Oct 8, 2020 11:08:15 GMT -5
It's going to be interesting because if there was ever a year to accept a QO and return to free agency a year later without a QO attached...it would seem to be this year. I do wonder if a certain tier of players (say worth between $12M - $17M on the open market) would more likely to accept and therefore if teams might be less likely to offer.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 4, 2020 11:52:11 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Oct 1, 2020 11:49:10 GMT -5
I'm on the record for being on a big fan of LeMahieu and his fit on our roster over the next 2-3 year window. That said, I'm quite opposed to signing a free agent with QO attached so that will be an interesting decision for the Yankees to make given their financial situation. I don't know that they can afford to bring him back (or that it would be in their best interest with pitching needs), but if they feel like his market is strong enough and confident he'll find another home then they may just offer him a QO anyways. I believe they only stand to gain a pick after the 4th round though so it may not be worth the risk?
If LeMahieu is offered a QO, the next guy up for me is Jurickson Profar. He's somewhat quietly entering the FA market for the first time at the age of only 28. He's now gotten full-time at bats for 3 consecutive years counting this abbreviated season. While doing so in each of those three seasons, he's kept his K% under 15% with an ISO over .150 and has been worth 5.4 fWAR over his last 1314 PAs (~2.5 fWAR per 600 PAs). Importantly, he's versatile defensively having played at least a game at every infield and outfield position in the last three years (primarily LF and 2B this year). That versatility would allow him to start at a position of need next year (ideally 2B), and potentially move around to fit the needs of the roster if our prospects can prove to outplay AAA within the next 2-year window.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 30, 2020 17:44:36 GMT -5
Man, I feel for them and the fanbase. I have a good friend who is a big Twins fan and I can't even bring myself to express condolences to him because I doubt he even wants them at this point.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 30, 2020 16:19:33 GMT -5
If anyone is curious, here is the list of upcoming free agents who have previously received qualifying offers and are therefore ineligible for another QO (courtesy of MLBtraderumors). Obviously, the majority of these guys wouldn't receive one anyways, but just to be comprehensive: Brett Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Wei-Yin Chen, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Wade Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Marco Estrada, Alex Gordon (just retired), Greg Holland, Ubaldo Jimenez, Howie Kendrick, Francisco Liriano, Russell Martin, Daniel Murphy, Jake Odorizzi, Marcell Ozuna, David Robertson, Jeff Samardzija, Pablo Sandoval, Carlos Santana, Mark Trumbo, Justin Turner, Neil Walker, Matt Wieters, Jordan Zimmermann
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Post by ramireja on Sept 29, 2020 11:24:42 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Sept 27, 2020 22:50:24 GMT -5
#4 Picks, 2005-2020
2005. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Virginia 2006. Brad Lincoln - RHP - Houston 2007. Daniel Moskos - LHP - Clemson 2008. Brian Matusz - LHP - University of San Diego 2009. Jorge Sanchez - C - Boston College 2010. Christian Colon - SS - Cal-State Fullerton 2011. Dylan Bundy - RHP - HS (OK) 2012. Kevin Gausman - RHP - LSU 2013. Kohl Stewart - RHP - HS (TX) 2014. Kyle Schwarber - C/OF - Indiana 2015. Dillon Tate - RHP - UC Santa Barbara 2016. Riley Pint - RHP - HS (KS) 2017. Brendan McKay - 1B/LHP - Louisville 2018. Nick Madrigal - SS - Oregon St. 2019. J.J. Bleday - OF - Vanderbilt 2020. Asa Lacy - LHP - Texas A&M
Not a single HS bat
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Post by ramireja on Sept 25, 2020 18:54:47 GMT -5
see the forum. The site has noted that, happened to a lot of folks. There is a thread explaining. Thanks, I see if I can find that thread. Here you go bud
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Post by ramireja on Sept 25, 2020 11:21:39 GMT -5
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Yorke struck out in his last PA.....the last PA ever for a Red Sox affiliate at McCoy stadium. I suppose Yorke will have to settle for a 7/10 line.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 24, 2020 15:25:12 GMT -5
I wonder what percentage of the Leiter love comes from the fact that (a) he's Rocker's teammate and (b) his name is Leiter. That so many people are certain about him after fewer than 20 college innings is something. Guess the same could be said about lawler who a month ago was going in the 20s now he is all of sudden flying above mclain who has played a full year in college plus about a third of a year this season. While playing in the cape cod league. Yet a kid in hs that had one good showcase now is the second coming. We all have preferences I'll hitch my wagon to Leiter. He turns out to be a zero I'll take the egg on my face. ...and OPSed .631 (25.7 K%) in that full college season. The bars set by the college bats aren't exactly insurmountable. Jud Fabian didn't set the world on fire his freshman year either (OPS: .764, 21.7 K%). I'm not saying these guys are trash prospects but there isn't really an obvious Spencer Torkelson or Austin Martin kind of bat that produced as soon as they stepped on campus and did it against top competition. Bottom line -- that's going to create a lot of fluidity in rankings for both college and HS players especially when you consider the basically lost 2020 season. No need to lock into any single prospect at this moment. Leiter is going to be exciting to follow, Lawlar is going to be exciting to follow....no need to pick one right now or write someone off because of their position or demographic.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 23, 2020 14:43:17 GMT -5
Or to simplify, the talent level discrepancy between Noah Song and Kumar Rocker/Jack Leiter is marginal based on current industry evaluations.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 23, 2020 11:47:12 GMT -5
Hey man I understand. But just food for thought, if Downs is considered a 2B, which is kinda what I hear we don’t really have a backup for Xander. If he gets hurt or opts out we don’t have an immediate guy to stand in in my opinion. I guess what I’m saying is even if you drafted Kumar next year your probably looking at 2 or 3 years before before he joins the team full time even if all goes well development wise. Nobody really knows how this team will look by the time these draftees hit or miss. You can never have too much pitching sure, but I’ve never heard of having too many talented Shortstops either. Having said this, I love the outfielders in this draft:) My POV is this I think Bogaerts, unlike Mookie, is staying. But if i'm wrong, you have Downs moving to SS and Yorke at 2B. You then have your wildcard in Lugo. So if Bogaerts stays you got Bogaerts Downs Yorke Lugo We need to start looking at other areas because there are some decent sized holes. The OF, Pitchers, Catcher, and Second Base come to mind. I feel like there isn't enough of safety net in those areas compared to 1st, 3rd, and SS. Hey man I'm sure you've heard this before but you really need to draft BPA and if that BPA happens to be a shortstop, you go grab him. First of all, none of those guys projects to be an above average defensive SS so the idea of any of them moving off the position is fine. Second, anytime you're trying to project 3-4 years down the road (which you need to when projecting the likes of Yorke or Lugo in the majors), you're going to be wrong. Best case scenario and all of those guys are indeed MLB starters, fantastic, then you have some valuable trade chips. As for Lawlar, if he's available when the Sox select, and thats their pick....its because he's the top player on their board, not because there is some infatuation with shortstops. Lawlar is showing impact potential with the bat (I've seen recent comparisons to Gleyber Torres), and a guy that can do that at SS is super valuable in this game. This front office/scouting department went completely off the board to draft Nick Yorke based on his offensive potential alone...I wouldn't worry about them selecting the next Deven Marrero in the 1st round.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 23, 2020 11:40:02 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Sept 23, 2020 11:36:08 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Sept 22, 2020 23:36:43 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Sept 22, 2020 23:12:44 GMT -5
Norm, he did it as he was swinging. You're saying you think he planned to pick up his back foot as he swung? That's madness. Chris -- they don't call him "unique" for nothing
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Post by ramireja on Sept 22, 2020 15:13:31 GMT -5
Understanding we'll be talking about Yorke in the Pawtucket (alt site) thread, I want to also make sure some of this is archived in a personal thread. Our 1st round pick has been quick to impress:
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Post by ramireja on Sept 22, 2020 11:39:19 GMT -5
So minor league innings count towards mlb service time?? I think most of us would have interpreted your original post as referring to durability concerns and not having anything to do with service time.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 22, 2020 11:36:56 GMT -5
For Houck I would say that if the Pitching Ninja knows, all of baseball knows. For Dalbec, if you accept the SSS K rates, you also have to accept the 38th ranked wRC+ in the majors for players with 50 or more PA. And both of them are still prospects. K rate is the single stat that stabilizes most quickly. At 67 PAs it's still not that big a sample, but it is actually more significant than his wRC+. And when you see that he has only a .262 BA despite a .409 BABIP, and that he has a history of high strikeout rates in the minors... well, suffice it to say I don't think Dalbec's proven anything yet. The other thing about the Red Sox system moving up in the rankings is that the rankings are a zero-sum game; other teams have no doubt had some guys move up too. Just in terms of the draft, for instance, one-third of MLB teams added a top-10 draft pick this year, whereas the Red Sox added... Nick Yorke. Fair enough, but on the flip side, we're not graduating any prospects of note (Dalbec and Houck won't meet rookie requirements), whereas most teams have graduated at least one including a number of systems' top prospects (e.g., Luis Robert, Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Dustin May, Alec Bohm, Kyle Lewis, etc.). Also, when Yorke bats .360 next year in Low-A with a .450 OBP, he'll move up the prospect rankings.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 21, 2020 17:10:06 GMT -5
There is likely to be a significant shake-up in these rankings after what will hopefully be almost normal college and high school baseball seasons next spring. Absolutely, which is why some of the "I really don't want the 4th pick because there is a clearly defined top tier of 3" type of talk is hella premature.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 21, 2020 15:10:46 GMT -5
Prospects Live also put out their initial top 200 list last week. Here's their top 10: 1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 2. Jordan Lawler, SS, Jesuit College Prep HS 3. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU 4. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida 5. Matt McClain, SS, UCLA 6. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama 7. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS 9. Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvert Christian Academy HS 10. Steve Hajjar, LHP, Michigan www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/9/13/2021-mlb-draft-top-200-prospects jeez Lawler high on these list I wouldnt put him in my top 10. Noones playing games, right so why so much movement within the top 20. I didn't like house either but dropping from top 5 to just barely in the top 20. Well good thing bloom knows 1k times more about rating players then me. Hopefully he gets us a franchise player. Some of the big national showcases for HS players actually occurred. For example, here's notes for the Perfect Game All-American Classic from the Prospects Live staff.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 21, 2020 13:56:29 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Sept 20, 2020 15:38:16 GMT -5
Thats wild. I get that we're talking about 2 days of plate appearances in a bizarre environment, but still....for a dude to recently graduate from HS and look like he belongs with this company is impressive.
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