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Post by ramireja on Jun 16, 2020 20:20:01 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 16, 2020 13:07:08 GMT -5
How did this guy not get drafted? He seems like someone you'd rather have then even Wu-Yelland or Drohan. That was my question, so I looked up his college stats. I had trouble finding much aside this link, so I apologize in advance if the numbers are not accurate: asasilverstorm.com/sports/bsb/2017-18/bios/andrew_merfy_gipkAccording to that webpage, in 13.1 innings Andrew walked 31 batters. Perhaps that made a few scouts think twice about drafting him? Yes, basically this. He has a history of extreme control concerns. Its possible he's turned a bit of a corner. This year for St. Thomas, Andrew still walked 18 in 25.1 innings. Certainly better than 31 walks in 13.1 innings, but still problematic. If you dig under the hood a bit more and look at his 5 starts this year, you'll see his first of the year was atrocious walking 7 batters in 2.1 innings. He followed that up though stringing together 4 strong starts with a 40K/11BB ratio in 23 innings.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 15, 2020 11:32:14 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 15, 2020 0:00:24 GMT -5
The Royals are finding access to the BA's top 500 like no other team right now. They've signed 6 guys according to BA's tracker, 5 are in BA's top 500 and the other made their list of top 25 seniors. Plus one of their signings is Kale Emshoff...I want to say he's a consensus top 200 type.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 14, 2020 20:11:58 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 14, 2020 11:39:23 GMT -5
St. Josephs had their season opener against #24 ranked Ohio State this year and DiValerio got the start and the win. His line: 5IP 1H 1R (0ER) 1BB 9K
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Post by ramireja on Jun 14, 2020 10:23:24 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 23:13:21 GMT -5
Assuming there is a 20 round draft next year, the quality of the senior class is going to present an interesting wrinkle to draft strategy.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 22:00:16 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 19:01:25 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 18:36:00 GMT -5
One of the telltale signs elite power weight transfer, as seen with Harper, Moncada, etc. fwiw, here's what Keith Law had to say about his swing -
"Boston went way off the highway with Nick Yorke (1), the only player taken in round one who wasn’t ranked on my Top 100. Yorke has a good swing, geared more for average than power, but he doesn’t have the range or arm for shortstop after a shoulder injury and is probably limited to second base in the long term. Even if the Red Sox really believe in his bat, he would almost certainly have been available at their next pick; I spoke to multiple teams who said they either didn’t have him in the top three rounds or deemed him unsignable for worth due to his commitment to Arizona.
The Red Sox didn’t have a second-round pick, and in the third round they took one of the most famous players in the draft in Blaze Jordan (3), a 17-year-old high school first baseman from Mississippi who puts on a great BP but has little game power because of a swing that is all hands, making no use of his lower half. He’s limited to first base, so he has to get to that power to be a prospect. The history of high school position players from Mississippi is also pretty dismal, so I think Jordan is a prospect, but a longshot. They followed it up with Hawai’i reliever Jeremy Wu-Yelland (4), who has walked 55 guys in 88 career innings, almost all in relief; and Florida State lefty Shane Drohan (5), a fastball/changeup guy who went backward after going to Tallahassee and has walked 69 in 73.2 career innings."
I literally posted this a few posts above, but just to repost because its relevant to this very topic. This is taken from Prospects Live data-driven big board which had an excellent analysis of Jordan:
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 16:46:49 GMT -5
It also completely misses the point that Yorke wouldn't have been signable in the 3rd. To do so, we would have needed to find another wildly underslot pick in the 1st to afford Yorke in the 3rd....even then, the math probably doesn't add up. Or they could’ve just grabbed Crow-Armstrong in the first, who has an identical (actually higher-rated) hit tool, 60-70 speed, plus defensive ability and plays a higher value position. But yeah, OK. I'm not advocating for what the Sox did....to be honest, I'd prefer a draft that had PCA as our first pick. I'm just pointing out that Keith Law's logic is silly here.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 15:07:31 GMT -5
That Keith Law snippet is pretty embarrassing. He's "almost certain" Yorke would have been available in the third. Does that mean he would lay 20-1 odds? Because he talked to four people still employed by MLB? Okay, sure. The history of Mississippi position players is irrelevant. The last two pitchers were consensus reasonable picks and he dismisses them by picking the worst factoids he can find, which everyone already knew about. It also completely misses the point that Yorke wouldn't have been signable in the 3rd. To do so, we would have needed to find another wildly underslot pick in the 1st to afford Yorke in the 3rd....even then, the math probably doesn't add up.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 12:14:57 GMT -5
That said, I can't put Drohan ahead of the likes of Feldman, Bazardo, Liu, Jorge Rodriguez. I agree there's some starter upside between the quality of stuff and clean mechanics, but its also a ton to ask for his control to improve. Granted he's trended in the right direction throughout college but he walked 10 guys in 4.1 innings as freshman, walked 8.36 per 9 innings last year, and was still walking 5.6 per 9 early in this season. He was also lit up in a few Cape appearances over the summer. His stuff would need to be tremendous to warrant a spot in the 20s for me. I like the comparison to Aybar though, and would probably have him in that 'tier.'
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 12:05:00 GMT -5
Disclaimer: These guys might still be considered unlikely to sign as UDFAs but they're worth monitoring given that the alternative is to return for a (uncertain?) senior year with little negotiating power in 2021. Still a junior who believes in himself may opt to return to school for the sake of 1) finishing their degree requirements, 2) playing well enough to receive a high-end senior bonus (think $50K-$100K).
Using MLB's rankings, here are the top undrafted college juniors:
50. Seth Lonsway - LHP - Ohio St. 69. Tommy Mace - RHP - Florida 90. Gavin Williams - LHP - East Carolina 91. Mason Erla - RHP - MIchigan St. 107. Parker Chavers - OH - Coastal Carolina 116. Andrew Abbott - LHP - Virginia 119. Justin Fall - LHP - Arizona St. 123. Carson Seymour - RHP - Kansas St. 124. Ryan Webb - LHP - Georgia 125. Luke Waddell - SS - Georgia Tech 128. Trenton Denholm - RHP - UC-Irvine (former Sox draftee) 129. Jackson Leath - RHP - Tennessee 146. Kale Emshoff - C - University of Arkansas - Little Rock (Senior) 152. Kevin Abel - RHP - Oregon State 153. Hugh Fisher - RHP - Vanderbilt 164. Johnny Ray - RHP - TCU 170. Casey Opitz - C - Arkansas 172. Blake Dunn - OF - Western Michigan 173. Jacob Teter - 1B - Florida Southern College 179. Bobby Seymour - 1B - Wake Forest 180. Zach Brzkykcy - RHP - Virginia Tech 183. Jamal O'Guinn - 3B - USC 185. Alex Toral - 1B - Miami 196. Braiden Ward - OF - Washington 199. Matt Mikulski - RHP - Fordham
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 11:37:50 GMT -5
With the draft now complete, I'm wondering where the 4 picks will land on the prospect rankings. Good question. My gut feeling: Blaze Jordan around #10, Yorke in the late teens, Drohan around 35-40, Wu-Yelland unranked
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 23:04:32 GMT -5
Some great stuff earlier from Prospects Live when they put together a data driven big board that placed Blaze at #53:
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 18:33:05 GMT -5
Why is Casey Martin (SS) still on the board? K% was never good and trended in wrong direction throughout college (22% as freshman, 23.5% as sophomore, 31% in this abbreviated year)
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 17:56:56 GMT -5
Where is the Orioles' money going? I don't get it. The same org that didn't invest in the international market for years, so who knows...
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 17:48:34 GMT -5
Round 3 is here folks. There's a few quality college arms remaining (e.g., Cole Wilcox, Seth Lonsway). I think if there's a college player the Sox like...they might need to get him here as he would probably be less likely to be around in Round 4 than a HS player they covet. I'm veeeery intrigued to see what's about to happen.
Here's 10 HS names I'd be excited to land (quite frankly could be in any of Rounds 3-5):
1. Kevin Parada – C (CA) 2. David Calabrese – OF (ON, Canada) 3. Carson Montgomery – RHP – HS (FL) 4. Tanner Witt – RHP – HS (TX) 5. Kala’i Rosario – OF/1B/3B (HI) 6. Petey Halpin – OF (CA) 7. Alejandro Rosario – RHP – HS (FL) 8. Coby Mayo – OF – HS (FL) 9. Harold Coll – SS – HS (GA) 10. Blaze Jordan – 1B/3B – HS (MS)
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 17:15:21 GMT -5
Dodgers with the first senior pick of the draft to close out Round 2. Shrewd move to save a little $ and get a quality player....wouldn't surprise me to see them spend some $ on pick #66.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 16:16:35 GMT -5
So far....Orioles' plan for spending is unclear. Either they were just looking to save money (w/ Kjerstad) or their $ splash will come later?
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 16:13:24 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 11:29:36 GMT -5
Yesterday in the general draft thread, I threw out a few financial scenarios in the case that the Red Sox went underslot at #17. I used $3.0M as the underslot value, but now that we know the pick, lets play with a different figure. What will Yorke's $ bonus look like? Some estimates are as low as $1.5M. In a shocking scenario, lets set the upper range to $3.0M. I've read he was considered a tough sign in the 2nd round which tops out at basically $2.0M in the beginning of the round. I'd be thrilled if he signed for $2.0M, but lets go with $2.3M for this exercise, leaving basically $3.0M to spend on our three picks today after taking into account the 5% overage on the entire pool. So the math from here is pretty simple but here are a few scenarios: 1. $2.2M on 3rd rounder, near slot on 4th and 5th rounders: Basically, they come to a verbal agreement with someone they really like overnight, hope that no other teams are willing to match this figure, and then hope the player drops to Round 3 (with the player settling for nothing less than $2.2M in conversations w/ other teams). Of course, there are other teams with plenty of bonus $ to match an offer of say $2.2M, so this scenario would require that there are a handful of guys the Sox are willing to offer $2.2M. 2. $1.5M on 3rd rounder, $1.2M on 4th rounder, near slot on 5th rounder: Nab 2 HS guys they covet; but don't completely lock into the HS demographic and allow to sign a college guy they like. If that college guy is available earlier and they need to pounce (because they can assume HS guys available in rounds 3-4 are more likely to drop to 5), then you can basically swap the bonus amounts for the 4th and 5th rounders here. 3. $1.0M on 3rd rounder, $1.0M on 4th rounder, $1.0M on 5th rounder: Distribute among the players nearly equally, but probably assumes HS player in each round which is a bold draft. - I wonder a little if the overall draft strategy is somewhat guided by the UDFA projections. Perhaps the Sox think there are a number of college players, undervalued and signable as free agents. If so, perhaps they view these draft 4 picks as their only means of tapping into the HS demographic and coming away with 3 (or more) HS players w/ upside. - I'll probably drop a list of my most coveted players as the 3rd round is getting underway. I'll say now though that the guy who I'd be thrilled about is Kevin Parada....chance for a nice hit/power combo and has tools to stick at C.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 11:09:11 GMT -5
I won't post the actual videos here, but PG has a number of clips on Yorke's player page found here
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