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Post by ramireja on Apr 25, 2024 8:44:13 GMT -5
When you’re on the same list as Jake Fraley, you know you’re playing well At some point, someone will need to start the ROY extra draft pick thread. Somehow, winning that pick from the Orioles reminds me of trying to beat them when they had four 20 game winners on the mound and gold gloves on the infield. Wilyer isn’t eligible though with his lack of top 100 prospect status (a BS component of the rule IMO).
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Post by ramireja on Apr 3, 2024 22:30:42 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Mar 29, 2024 17:00:19 GMT -5
California prep SS creeping up the draft boards into our pick range...
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Post by ramireja on Mar 29, 2024 10:29:20 GMT -5
Hey just wanted to give a big public shoutout to fellow moderator Oregon Norm who is hooking me up with opening day tickets for tonight. Your Pac Northwest Soxprospects representatives will be attendance and cheering on the away team! Thanks for that. Had the extra tickets and I couldn't imagine a better set of eyeballs to get those to. I'll bet you enjoyed that at least as much we did. So the team seemed to transition seamlessly from spring training, bringing all the energy from the games that didn't matter to this one that did. It's just one win but it counts! That's a strong lineup I believe: patience, speed, some power... and the defense brings tears of joy after last year's painful performance. I was hoping for at least a series split. Maybe I need to reset the expectations! Great guy right here. Had a blast Norm...thank you again! Hope you had a great time with family too. One thing I caught from the game that I know was noticed by other viewers was that Casas was clearly frustrated by the at bat with Duran approaching home. After the at bat (which ended the inning) Casas waited over in the infield by third base and when Duran came out to field his position, he, Casas, and Trevor Story had a relatively lengthy discussion. Who knows what they said, but I thought it was good to see some direct convo immediately after the play to get on the same page and also Story showing some good leadership by being involved in that convo.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 28, 2024 11:36:09 GMT -5
Hey just wanted to give a big public shoutout to fellow moderator Oregon Norm who is hooking me up with opening day tickets for tonight. Your Pac Northwest Soxprospects representatives will be attendance and cheering on the away team!
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Post by ramireja on Mar 27, 2024 17:30:57 GMT -5
Man I hope he can find the resilience and perseverance to stick with this, but its got to be tempting to walk away at some point too. He's always seemed (and showed) resilience though so hoping for the best for him in his surgery and eventual rehab.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 27, 2024 10:42:37 GMT -5
I just posted this tweet in the Minor League Spring Training thread but wanted to make a small case for Dobbins potentially being a bit underrated (not necessarily here but more on the national scene):
- Dobbins led our system in innings per start year, somewhat comfortably with Grant Gambrell ranking second in that department. Dobbins averaged about 5 2/3 innings per start which is pretty impressive considering he missed all of the 2021 season and pitched ~70 innings in 2022. - Even with that workload, Dobbins registered a SwStr% of 14.9% that ranked 19th out of 272 pitchers that pitched 100 innings in the minors last year. - He performed well in three key outcome areas last year: Getting Ks, limiting walks, and producing favorable batted ball outcomes. He was above average in each of those domains ranking closer to a 'plus' grade in control (6.6% BB% on the year) and batted ball outcomes (particularly excelled in generating infield flyballs and limiting outfield flyballs). - The combo of the above lead me to believe that Dobbins' odds of becoming a backend starter are about on par with anyone else in the system (maybe Fitts having a slight edge). There are higher ceilings and guys who might project to make more impact out of the bullpen, but I kind of like Dobbins as being grouped among the best 4-5 pitching prospects in our system, or at the very least having only about a half grade of separation among them.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 27, 2024 10:24:29 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Mar 19, 2024 22:26:24 GMT -5
A few days old, but this swing deserves to be documented...
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Post by ramireja on Feb 7, 2024 12:57:58 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jan 22, 2024 15:33:23 GMT -5
Some stuff on hitters:
0.089 -> 0.275: That’s the swing in Roman Anthony’s ISO (Isolated Power) from his time with Salem (ISO = 0.089) to Greenville (ISO = 0.275) and represents a monstrous shift when considering that he had >200 PAs at each level so this isn’t a product of tiny sample sizes. I know the hitting environments are of course different but this increase in ISO is so huge in warrants additional explanation. In looking at some batted ball data, when moving up a level, Anthony decreased his GB% by 3.9 percentage points and increased his LD% by 3.5 percentage points. He also decreased his pull rate with an increase in using the center of the field. I suppose the most massive shift though is an increase in HR/FB% from 3.3% to 37.5%. That of course is going to be impacted by ballpark but I have to think that large of a swing also indicates an improvement in quality of contact. Maybe someone with EV data can chime in on any differences seen between the two stops.
<15% & >.200: Only one hitter in the South Atlantic League with at least 200 PAs (N = 128) had a K% < 15% and an ISO of > .200. That was Blaze Jordan. In fact, if you set the K% threshold to 20% and count hitters with an ISO of .200 or more, you still only find two guys out of the 128 player sample.
98: This is the number of walks for Niko Kavadas on the year across his time in Portland and Worcester. This figure led our system and tied for 9th out of 1108 qualified hitters in the entire minor league system. His BB% of 20.4% ranked 3rd out of 1054 hitters with 300 PAs. I feel like it was a quiet year for Kavadas in prospect circles and understandably so with a decline in numbers coming off of the preposterous things he did in Single A levels. That said, Kavadas still managed to post OBPs of .386 and .364 in AA and AAA, respectively, which is impressive considering he barely managed to clear the Mendoza line in each of those stops. Further, he did so while posting ISOs of >.200 at each level. Of course, a high K% and a low BA will always be part of his game, but this is still a near elite power/patience combo that one could argue creates enough value to overcome low BA in his offensive profile.
119-122: Across the last three levels for which Allan Castro has had at least 100 PAs, Castro’s offensive production has been in a tight range of wRC+ posting a 122 wRC+ in the FCL (2022, 141 PAs), a 121 wRC+ in Low-A (2023, 306 PAs), and a 119 wRC+ in High-A (2023, 186 PAs). It’s been nice to see him consistently producing at an above-average clip with the future potential for more if he can add more strength to his game.
54: Ceddanne Rafaela’s 54 extra-base hits led our system on the year which should be worthy of a bullet point on its own. What’s even more impressive is that this is now the 2nd year in a row for which he has led the system in this category cementing this electric aspect of his game.
11.5%: First off, there were only 45 hitters in the DSL who had an ISO of .200 or greater among the 509 hitters with at least 100 PAs. Among those 45 batters, the lowest K% belonged to Yoeilin Cespedes at 11.5% (ISO: 0.215) indicating an elite ability to pair contact skills with damage. What’s kind of crazy is that he did so with a pretty low BB% of 6.7% suggesting he wasn’t even being all that selective when he swung. That’s pretty nutty. I hope Cespedes can work on his selectivity and draw more walks moving forward as it’s pretty exciting to think of the damage he’ll be able to do with the bat if he can hone his approach.
0.319: That would be the ISO for Brooks Brannon on the year, with a fairly major caveat that he was limited to 77 plate appearances on the year. That was the highest ISO in our system for batters with at least 50 PAs. Of course, if you raise the bar to something more meaningful, even 100 PAs, the ISO leader in the system was none other than Bobby Dalbec (ISO: 0.288). Back to Brannon though, nobody expects that ISO moving forward, but his reputation as a power hitter has been warranted thus far in his pro career. I don’t think anyone would be surprised for him to maintain an ISO between .200 - .250 over the course of a full season if he can get healthy.
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Post by ramireja on Jan 18, 2024 20:08:06 GMT -5
I'm a bit late with a post like this (been a crazy year for work among other things), but better late than never....especially with the doom and gloom surrounding the parent club's offseason. Some nuggets on 2023 pitching. Feel free to add or discuss below.
35.2%: That’s highest K% (preferred to K/9) among the 272 pitchers in the minor leagues last year with 100 innings. That K% belongs to Wikelman Gonzalez across A+ and AA. Note that Isaac Coffey ranks 12th out of those 272 with a 31.5 K% across those same levels. Drop the threshold to 90 innings and Dalton Rogers ranks 11th out of 393 pitchers with his 33.2 K%.
16.8%: Once again looking at the 272 pitchers in the minors with 100 innings, Chih-Jung Liu’s SwStr% ranked 2nd only behind Drew Thorpe. That might come as a surprise to many, it did for me, and suggests an upside in his profile that might be overlooked. Other Sox pitching prospects, Angel Bastardo and Hunter Dobbins ranked 9th and 19th in this category among the same pool of pitchers, respectively.
2.30: That’s Yordanny Monegro’s FIP during his time with Salem before a late promotion to Greenville. That FIP ranked 1st out of 142 pitchers in the league who pitched 40+ innings.
3.6%: That’s the miniscule BB% for Jedixson Paez on the year. It ranks as the lowest in our system among pitchers with 30 innings or more (Jedixson pitched 84.1). It also ranks as the lowest among all teenagers in full-season ball (so DSL excluded).
15: That’s the number of strikeouts on the year for Hayden Mullins making his pro debut following TJ surgery. What’s so impressive about that? He only faced 27 batters on the year and so he struck out 55.6% of those batters. Granted this is a former college arm against FSL and Low-A bats, but I’ll be interested to see what kind of a role he gets in 2024 and how he performs in that role.
39.5%: Above I noted the highest K% in the entire minor leagues for pitchers that logged more than 100 innings. Drop the bar to 20 innings to allow for relievers, and the highest K% in our system belonged to Christopher Troye who struck out nearly 40% of batters faced in his 49.1 innings across A+ and AA. His K% ranks 18th of out the 3,134 pitchers to reach 20 innings last year, or if you prefer 8th out of the 1,832 pitchers to reach 40 innings.
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Post by ramireja on Jan 18, 2024 17:30:27 GMT -5
We know Kutter has a pretty harsh 3rd time through the order penalty...
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Post by ramireja on Dec 6, 2023 16:05:49 GMT -5
My first thought is that the time to thin out some of this list is this offseason....not next offseason when there is more desperation (but little space) to protect players.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 6, 2023 14:07:29 GMT -5
Somehow our farm system has no pitching according to everyone except all other MLB teams.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 6, 2023 12:05:56 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Dec 6, 2023 0:44:22 GMT -5
So, Mookie is a second baseman now. We need a 2b. Maybe we can get him back so Dodgers can have the $ to sign Ohtani I'd just love to see what Dodgers GM would say on the phone if the Sox offered that package for Betts. Except you’ve left out a really important piece of the package/return…4 years of Alex Verdugo for about 7-8 WAR.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 15, 2023 19:48:10 GMT -5
I'm seeing a lot of focus of discussion on the evaluation of Drohan itself in making the decision, but I think the offseason plan plays as big of a role in the decision to protect or not protect him. If Breslow has come in and said that at a minimum, we need to bring in say 5 fresh faces via free agency (lets say 2 SP, 1 RP, and middle infielder and OF/DH/utility), then you have two spots currently open for that, plus potential DFAs of Weiss, Llovera, Robertson, Jacques, and Mills behind that. They might opt to keep guys like Llovera and Robertson on the roster with hope that they meaningfully contribute this year vs. Drohan. If you select Drohan and then run up against tough DFA situation as the offseason progresses, then you'll find yourself much in the situation that Bloom found himself in last year with lots of DFAs (Seabold, Jeter Downs, Hosmer, German, Barnes, Darwinzon) and little in return.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 31, 2023 22:44:30 GMT -5
9/1 Red Sox (LHP James Paxton, 7-4, 3.99, 94.2 IP, 101K:31BB) @ Royals (RHP Jordan Lyles, 3-15, 6.51, 142.1 IP, 97K:40BB) 8:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 9/2 Red Sox (RHP Tanner Houck, 3-8, 4.93, 76.2 IP, 70K:28BB) @ Royals (TBD) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 9/3 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale, 5-3, 4.75, 77.2 IP, 96K:21BB) @ Royals (RHP Zack Greinke, 1-13, 5.28, 119.1 IP, 80K:17BB) 2:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by ramireja on Aug 28, 2023 9:45:17 GMT -5
8/28 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale, 5-3, 4.68, 73.0 IP, 90K:19BB) vs. Astros (RHP Cristian Javier, 9-2, 4.52, 127.1 IP, 115K:45BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/29 Red Sox (RHP Brayan Bello, 10-7, 3.56, 126.1 IP, 104K:34BB) vs. Astros (RHP J.P. France, 9-5, 3.51, 110.1 IP, 83K:33BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/30 Red Sox (RHP Kutter Crawford, 6-6, 3.65, 101.0 IP, 101K:25BB) vs. Astros (LHP Framber Valdez, 9-9, 3.40, 161.2 IP, 159K:43BB) 4:10 ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by ramireja on Aug 25, 2023 14:17:26 GMT -5
Lance Lynn is another guy who was DOA and is now reborn with the Dodgers. With White Sox: 119.2IP, 6.47ERA, 68 ERA+, 1.462 WHIP With Dodgers: 25IP, 1.44ERA, 305ERA+, 0.880WHIP It’s a Brasier-esque reversal of fortune for him. Unbelievable. Brasier hasn’t slowed down, either: With Red Sox: 21IP, 7.29ERA, 63ERA+, 1.571WHIP With Dodgers: 26.1IP, 1.03ERA, 428ERA+(!!!), 0.759WHIP The Brasier thing, I swear to god... I really want to know what's going on there, because the Red Sox front office really stood by him and kept him on the 40-man when everyone was howling to ditch him, and in a way his performance in LA vindicates that decision. But why the heck couldn't the Red Sox get that performance out of him? Along with a few other cases (Springs breaking out in TB, Perez and Eovaldi in Texas), I really wonder if the front office/analytics dept. is ahead of the coaching staff on pitchers - they're identifying the right guys but aren't pulling the performances out of them that other organizations are able to. But it's also possible that it's all just luck and small sample size stuff, or those guys just didn't feel as comfortable in Boston or something.
This stuff is just going to kind of happen though around the fringes of the roster, sometimes in our favor, sometimes not. Detroit might be wondering how we turned Schreiber into what he is now. Seattle (among other teams) with Bernardino. The Phillies with Pivetta, and so on. I'd also argue that Eovaldi is largely the same pitcher he was with us too.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 25, 2023 6:41:36 GMT -5
8/25 Red Sox (RHP Kutter Crawford, 6-6, 3.66, 96.0 IP, 94K:24BB) vs. Dodgers (RHP Lance Lynn, 9-9, 5.60, 144.2 IP, 169K:50BB) 7:10 pm ET, Apple TV+/WEEI 8/26 Red Sox (LHP James Paxton, 7-4, 3.79, 90.1 IP, 97K:26BB) vs. Dodgers (RHP Julio Urías, 11-6, 4.15, 106.1 IP, 104K:21BB) 4:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/27 Red Sox (RHP Tanner Houck, 3-7, 5.08, 72.2 IP, 66K:26BB) vs. Dodgers (TBD) 1:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by ramireja on Aug 21, 2023 7:01:38 GMT -5
8/21 Red Sox (LHP James Paxton, 7-3, 3.34, 86.1 IP, 93K:23BB) @ Astros (RHP Cristian Javier, 8-2, 4.49, 122.1 IP, 112K:42BB) 8:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/22 Red Sox (RHP Tanner Houck, 3-6, 5.05, 67.2 IP, 64K:23BB) @ Astros (RHP Justin Verlander, 8-6, 3.36, 112.1 IP, 94K:35BB) 8:10 pm ET, NESN, TBS/WEEI 8/23 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale, 5-3, 4.50, 68.0 IP, 81K:18BB) @ Astros (RHP José Urquidy, 2-3, 5.21, 38.0 IP, 34K:13BB) 8:10 ET, NESN/WEEI 8/24 Red Sox (RHP Brayan Bello, 9-7, 3.70, 119.1 IP, 100K:31BB) @ Astros (RHP J.P. France, 9-4, 2.75, 108.0 IP, 80K:31BB) 2:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by ramireja on Aug 18, 2023 10:13:41 GMT -5
8/18 Red Sox (RHP Brayan Bello, 8-7, 3.81, 113.1 IP, 96K:30BB) @ Yankees (TBD) 7:05 pm ET, Apple TV+/WEEI 8/19 Red Sox (RHP Kutter Crawford, 5-6, 3.80, 90.0 IP, 89K:22BB) @ Yankees (RHP Gerrit Cole, 10-3, 2.76, 156.1 IP, 166K:42BB) 1:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/20 Red Sox (TBD) @ Yankees (RHP Clarke Schmidt, 8-7, 4.76, 117.1 IP, 113K:33BB) 1:35 pm ET, NESN, Amazon Prime Video/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by ramireja on Aug 14, 2023 16:57:06 GMT -5
8/15 Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta, 8-6, 4.16, 97.1 IP, 120K:38BB) @ Nationals (RHP Josiah Gray, 7-9, 3.69, 126.2 IP, 110K:59BB) 7:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/16 Red Sox (LHP James Paxton, 7-3, 3.36, 80.1 IP, 90K:22BB) @ Nationals (LHP MacKenzie Gore, 6-9, 4.62, 117.0 IP, 134K:50BB) 7:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/17 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale, 5-2, 4.52, 63.2 IP, 78K:15BB) @ Nationals (LHP Patrick Corbin, 7-11, 4.85, 137.1.0 IP, 91K:44BB) 4:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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