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Recent Posts
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 17:02:36 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 16:47:37 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 16:44:42 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 16:31:16 GMT -5
Interestly, not a ton of current velocity reported from the crop of pitchers selected today….most seem to sit low 90s. There does appear to be the preference for other FB characteristics that we’ve seen emerge more in recent classes. I say that without having done a ton of digging but the scouting reports would suggest that. Maybe there’s also some hope of adding velo with the Driveline guys we’ve added to the developmental team this past year.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 13:24:49 GMT -5
Antonio Anderson ranked #60 over at FanGraphs with a 40+ (High risk) grade:
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 12:29:36 GMT -5
Zanetello had arguably the best performance in a limited sample among players on the 2022 18U USA National team during the World Cup qualifying tourney (note: this isn't the same roster that later featured Aidan Miller, Bryce Eldridge, and Max Clark among others). Still though, Zanetello lead the team in hitting .429 and among his 9 hits he had 6 2Bs and 1 HR. He walked 5 times to 3Ks, went 5-for-5 in SBs (which also led team), and made no errors in the field.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 12:17:18 GMT -5
Brief scouting writeup from PG on Zanetello based on his performance at the WWBA World Championship in Jupiter of October, 2022:
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 10:34:55 GMT -5
In terms of ranking, I think Teel will actually slot anywhere in the 3-6 range in our system among most national outlets. I don't want to speak on behalf of this site, because SP can take a more conservative approach with monthly updates and a preference to get live looks before ranking aggressively. That said, I think things are trending such that Mayer (consensus top 20) and Roman Anthony would be our consensus top 100 prospects right now across all major national ranking outlets. Then, a tier of Rafaela, Yorke, and Bleis will have some support and might make a top 100 list or two but are unlikely to be consensus top 100 guys. I think Teel being a consensus top 10 talent in this strong draft, will also fall into the fringe top 100 tier so I'd put him right there in that 3-6 range. Of course, things can change between now and the end of the season with guys like Romero, Perales, and Wikelman capable of finishing strong and also being part of that tier.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2023 19:33:54 GMT -5
I wonder if he skips Low-A to jump past the Garcia/Brannon/Lira logjam I could see high-a with fairly quick promotion opportunity to AA (the Meidroth path) to get past Brannon/Garcia
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Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2023 14:49:37 GMT -5
I'm heading down to Lumen Field shortly to check out the pre-draft festivities. My final prediction at #14 is probably the guy who most people had originally linked the Sox to...Kevin McGonigle. Matt Shaw seems like the other real possibility. It does feel like a year without a clear BPA guy at #14 thus making the underslot strategy more attactive. McGonigle should fit the bill and his profile screams Red Sox over the past few years. All that said, this feels like a year with 50 other guys in play. I don't recall the board feeling this wide open after the first 5 picks or so. I'm mostly prepared to be surprised, and the Red Sox have done a fine job drafting the past few years, so I'll generally just be excited about whoever the Red Sox are excited about at #14 barring a giant surprise. Look for the guy with the Manny Ramirez jersey charging the stage at pick #14!
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Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2023 10:13:29 GMT -5
The futures game was a lot of fun to attend yesterday....bought 300 level tickets (upper deck) but was easy enough to slide on down to 100 level. The Red Sox showed well as you can see above.
I was a bit disappointed that Mayer was pulled in deference to Holliday after the 1st (or 2nd?) inning, but he was able to show off his hit tool, baserunning prowess, and defense all in a short time.
Yorke looked fairly smooth to me with his defensive actions both in the game and during pregame warmups. He made a great play in the game with a glove flip play to first base beating out James Wood who had a sprint time > 30mph up the line. Also, I admittedly I may have some missed plays, but Yorke's hit seemed to be the best of the game in terms of pairing exit velocity with ideal launch angle. Pitching dominated much of the game which makes sense given the special arms dialing it up for 1 inning stints. Speaking of....
Misiorowski looked nasty and sat comfortably at 100 mph and slightly over on his FB. His offspeed was nasty too. That's a special arm.
All in all, the players looked like they had a really fun time and that's nice to see. These are basically kids after all.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2023 10:04:58 GMT -5
One trend to consider…since the draft reduced in size to 20 rounds in 2021, the Red Sox have done very little overslot spending on Day 3. There was no Day 3 overslot spending in 2022, and only $125,000 of Day 3 overslot spending in 2021 (Kavadas). Compare that to 2019 -- $770,000 in overslot spending (Cellucci, Loubier, Simas, and Blalock), 2018 -- $588,000 overslot (Northcut, Machamer, and Howlett), and so on. This makes sense. Prior to 2020 when the draft was 40 rounds, you could draft a number of Day 3 overslot options with a variety of contingency plans. Now, you need to have a firm plan for that overslot spending that you can trust while maybe using ~2 picks on Day 3 as overslot contingency. So as a result, we’ve seen the overslot spending shifting primarily to Day 2 and spread among fewer players – Hickey in 2021, Anthony and Brannon in 2022. That trend is likely to continue this year and beyond with a 20 round draft.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2023 14:35:28 GMT -5
Need a write-up on Garcia like I need oxygen. He and Brannon are a breath of fresh air in the lower levels at C. I'd definitely like to hear about defensive projection. One good sign? Last year, he threw out 26 attempted base stealers last year to 32 SBs (45% CS rate). This year he's thrown out 7 against 10 successful SBs (41% CS rate) in the FCL.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2023 11:28:46 GMT -5
Mayer starting at SS and batting 2nd. Yorke starting at 2B and batting 9th.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2023 10:46:39 GMT -5
Starting a thread for one of the biggest risers in the July SP rankings. Johanfran's recent performance even got a Gammons retweet of a SP tweet:
Its always a fun thought experiment to consider where a player like Johanfran might project in this draft as a HS C with hit and power ability.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2023 10:29:47 GMT -5
7/8 All-Star Futures Game (featuring Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke & Luis Guerrero) 7:00 pm ET, Peacock 7/10 Home Run Derby (featuring Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman) 8:00 pm ET, ESPN 7/11 MLB All-Star Game (featuring Kenley Jensen) 8:00 pm ET, FOX MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by ramireja on Jul 7, 2023 16:16:50 GMT -5
What’s with the As pitching change? Hmmm...switching to a LHP reliever. My guess is he's an opener but it's just a guess.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 7, 2023 13:19:52 GMT -5
Thanks for putting in this work!
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Post by ramireja on Jul 7, 2023 12:36:00 GMT -5
The Salazar brothers have homered....Johnfrank for the FCL Sox and Kleyver for the DSL Blue team.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 7, 2023 11:29:33 GMT -5
7/7 Red Sox (LHP Brennan Bernardino, 1-0, 2.70, 26.2 IP, 26K:7BB) vs. Athletics (RHP Luis Medina, 2-7, 6.37, 53.2 IP, 49K:31BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 7/8 Red Sox (LHP James Paxton, 4-1, 2.70, 50.0 IP, 61K:13BB) vs. Athletics (RHP Paul Blackburn, 1-1, 4.50, 36.0 IP, 40K:12BB) 4:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 7/9 Red Sox (TBD) vs. Athletics (RHP JP Sears, 1-6, 4.09, 94.2 IP, 89K:20BB) 1:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by ramireja on Jul 7, 2023 11:15:32 GMT -5
Well thats moderately terrifying. I'm not sure I even like him at #50.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 6, 2023 15:33:26 GMT -5
Soo....as far as I can tell, we never had a Connor Wong thread when he was still prospect eligible. I might be a little late in starting one now but wanted a home for this nice analysis on his success in controlling the run game this year:
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Post by ramireja on Jul 5, 2023 17:17:51 GMT -5
I think a couple factors move this from 'possible' to 'probable' for me: 1) We're not focused on one team (say, the Phillies) having to make this decision, only one of 28 other teams have to deem Song worthy of a 26-man for 90 days and a 40-man spot moving forward. Shifting the focus from 1 team in the Phillies, to just needing 1 out of 28 teams changes the probability drastically. 2) I think a number of teams tend to carry multiple players on the 40-man who are long shots to contribute in the upcoming year. So I don't know that Song needs to be the best of those 'long-shot' options. For some teams, he simply needs to be the 3rd, 4th, maybe even 5th best option...or put another way, needs to be better than their worst long-shot option. If the Red Sox for example are considering protecting maybe 3 or 4 guys from a pool of players that includes Wikelman, Perales, Bonaci, Fernandez, Blalock, Bastardo, Paulino, and company....Song is a contender in that group right? I'd push back a bit on the second point in the era of the 26-man active roster. Look at this year's Red Sox, who have 4 healthy players on the 40-man in the minor leagues right now. Extreme example, yes, but teams have to use every bit of the 40-man these days. It's very hard to keep even two guys on the 40-man who aren't going to contribute for the entire season. It was just last year when we were discussing the strain on the 40 of having both Groome and Mata who weren't options to contribute at all. True, it seems guys on the 40-man (excluding your 26-man roster locks) fall into bins of: - Has some major league experience, ideally starts year in minors assuming decent health among 26-man roster, take advantage of option years, could contribute to majors from day 1 of season if necessary (Ort, Kelly, Mills). - Too good of a prospect not to protect and relatively close to majors with major league contributions possible but more realistic toward middle or end of year (Walter, Mata, Murphy, Abreu, Hamilton, Rafaela probably fall into this bin). - Too good of a prospect not to protect but can't realistically expect player to contribute to majors throughout entire season (nobody this year with Rafaela being the closest, but essentially the bin that Perales and Bonaci would fall in if protected over the offseason). Teams obviously fill their roster with a decent mix of guys from the first two bins, and perhaps very few of guys from the third bin in today's game. I suppose if a team classifies Song as a guy more likely to belong to the 2nd bin that might increase the odds of a team claiming him off waivers and abiding by the Rule 5 rules.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 5, 2023 12:07:52 GMT -5
Yeah came in to post almost this exactly. I would say thats the most likely situation at this point. If the Phillies do let him go, and he has to pass by all other teams, it's unfortunate for us that it's later in the season now when non-contending teams can be more assured of their non-contending status. Yet still, the A's or Royals or whomever would need to keep him on the 40 throughout the offseason, no? So even if they're willing to use the space at the end of the roster on long-shot prospects, they'd have to consider Song the best of the long-shots that might be scooped up. That seems possible to me, but not probable. I think a couple factors move this from 'possible' to 'probable' for me: 1) We're not focused on one team (say, the Phillies) having to make this decision, only one of 28 other teams have to deem Song worthy of a 26-man for 90 days and a 40-man spot moving forward. Shifting the focus from 1 team in the Phillies, to just needing 1 out of 28 teams changes the probability drastically. 2) I think a number of teams tend to carry multiple players on the 40-man who are long shots to contribute in the upcoming year. So I don't know that Song needs to be the best of those 'long-shot' options. For some teams, he simply needs to be the 3rd, 4th, maybe even 5th best option...or put another way, needs to be better than their worst long-shot option. If the Red Sox for example are considering protecting maybe 3 or 4 guys from a pool of players that includes Wikelman, Perales, Bonaci, Fernandez, Blalock, Bastardo, Paulino, and company....Song is a contender in that group right?
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Post by ramireja on Jul 5, 2023 10:16:51 GMT -5
It's still the case that the Phillies, in the midst of a playoff race, would need to use up a space on the major league roster for the rest of the season to keep him, right? Correct. I seriously doubt he will stick with the Phillies, but wouldn't be surprised if a team like the A's or Royals claim him and try to stash him. Yeah came in to post almost this exactly. I would say thats the most likely situation at this point. If the Phillies do let him go, and he has to pass by all other teams, it's unfortunate for us that it's later in the season now when non-contending teams can be more assured of their non-contending status.
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