|
Post by ramireja on Jul 21, 2023 16:35:58 GMT -5
So if Teel hadn't dropped to #14....was Zanetello the underslot plan there for the Sox? Remember, he got invited to the draft itself so it sure seems like the Sox had him circled on their draft board far in advance.
Adding one more thought. That's a big bonus for Zanetello....bigger than most of us thought on draft day although Mike was on to this figure recently. That said, it signals that the Red Sox love the player which in turn makes me excited based on their track record with HS players recently. Its a bigger bonus than any of our recent HS signees like Yorke, Romero, Anthony, and even Casas, with the only exception being of course Mayer.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 21, 2023 14:42:13 GMT -5
Drohan, Wikelman, Perales, Blalock, Bastardo, Liu, Fernandez and even Juan Daniel Encarnacion is a pretty silly number of pitchers with a non-zero chance of getting picked in the draft. Bastardo and Liu might seem like stretches but they're both in the top 1-2 percentile of swinging strike % this year and a team could be enticed to throw them in their bullpen. My guess is they maybe protect three (with Drohan, Wikelman, and Perales being the most likely) of those guys and leave us to sweat out the others.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 21, 2023 14:38:26 GMT -5
Plugging that into Mike's projection would leave 500k to offer a day 3 guy Perhaps although I think there's a distinct possibility that Riemer gets slot or something close to slot. All that said, if the report is that Call got an overslot offer (I actually didn't read that myself but others did?), then my guess is that the Red Sox had the bonuses entirely mapped out for everyone at the conclusion of Day 2 and that the overslot offer remains. We're basically just waiting to see how it all gets divvied up.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 21, 2023 12:41:56 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 20, 2023 14:09:59 GMT -5
3-hit games for Nathaniel Yuten, Johanfran Garcia, and Armando Sierra. Yuten and Garcia each had a 2B.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 20, 2023 13:44:48 GMT -5
For a team that’s the worst in baseball, the A’s are kind of intriguing. How are people feeling about the Red Sox having drafted Nick Yorke ahead of Tyler Soderstrom? I don’t have strong thoughts on him vs Yorke but Soderstrom definitely feels rushed to the majors with a service time clock started 1 or 1.5 years too soon. He hasn’t been an above average hitter by wRC+ standards since A+, was merely average in AA last year, and below average in AAA (but hitting for lots of power) before his call up. Jury is definitely out on him being any better long term compared to Yorke without even considering that Yorke saved the Red Sox bonus money while Soderstrom cost the As extra $.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 20, 2023 12:14:12 GMT -5
Yizreel Burnet making his season debut (I think) for the FCL squad in relief.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2023 18:13:49 GMT -5
I'm visiting Hadlock Field for the first time today. Any food recommendations? Salvage BBQ is a couple blocks away from the stadium and is a nice spot for some bbq and beer
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2023 16:03:24 GMT -5
I agree there is considerable relief upside with Liu. His ability to get swinging strikes has been present all year. Among 551 pitchers who have pitched 50 minor league innings this year, Liu ranks 14th in SwStr%, or if you prefer, ranks 3rd out of 185 who have pitched 70 innings.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 18, 2023 13:03:27 GMT -5
Solid outing from Luis Jerez: 4IP 3H 0ER OBB 4K Obed Balderas (turns 17 tomorrow) with a similar line of: 4IP 3H 0ER 0BB 3K
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 14, 2023 22:24:17 GMT -5
The Yankees losing a Carlos Rodon - Austin Gomber matchup is a tasty way to start the second half.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 14, 2023 13:51:49 GMT -5
Yuten with his 2nd HR on the year to go along with 2 BBs today
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 14, 2023 12:42:00 GMT -5
I'll be honest. I'm completely ignore those grades/values. I mean maybe I look at them to get a sense of player's perceived strengths weaknesses, but different sites have them calibrated on such different scales that it's kind of pointless to focus on the specific values themselves.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2023 18:28:23 GMT -5
Antonio Anderson appears to be in Boston via IG...looks like they're wasting no time this year.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2023 17:53:35 GMT -5
...and also, I should add...those older drafts earlier in the thread aren't aging well. That said, I'm pretty convinced the Red Sox board with a BPA approach would do better than a board using MLB Pipeline rankings like the above. However, I still don't think the benefits outweigh the massive $ it would take to pull this off although its not my money.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2023 17:48:59 GMT -5
Looks like I stopped doing this for the past couple of years. I could always pull something together retrospectively. In the meantime, this is what a hypothetical draft would look like from our 2023 draft positions if you went best player available according to the MLB Pipeline board. Feel free to swap Zanetello for Walker Martin in the 2nd round if you think we made the better call. MLB Pipeline rankings for each player are listed in parentheses:
1 (14). Kyle Teel (7) – C – University of Virginia 2 (50). Walker Martin (30) – SS – Eaton HS (CO), Committed to Arkansas 3 (83). Cameron Johnson (42) – LHP – IMG Academy (FL), Committed to LSU 4 (115). Roch Cholowsky (44) – SS – Hamilton HS (AZ), Committed to UCLA 4c (132). Cooper Pratt (45) – SS – Magnolia Heights HS (MS), Committed to Mississippi 4c (133). Jace Bohrofen (66) – OF – University of Arkansas 5 (151). Trent Caraway (70) – SS – Jserra Catholic HS (CA), Committed to Oregon State 6 (178). George Wolkow (71) – OF – Downers Grove North HS (IL), Committed to South Carolina 7 (208). Zane Adams (73) – LHP – Porter HS (TX) – Committed to Alabama 8 (238). Will Gasparino (75) – OF – Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) – Committed to Texas 9 (268). Tanner Witt (76) – RHP – University of Texas 10 (298). Caden Sorrell (79) – OF – Marcus HS (TX) – Committed to Texas A&M 11 (328). Joey Volchko (80) – RHP – Redwood HS (CA) – Committed to Stanford 12 (358). Liam Peterson (85) – RHP – Calvary Christian HS (FL) – Committed to Florida 13 (388). Jake Brown (93) – LHP – Sulphur HS (LA) – Committed to LSU 14 (418). Grant Gray (99) – OF – Norco HS (CA) – Committed to UCLA 15 (448). Drew Burress (104) – OF – Houston County HS (GA) – Committed to Georgia Tech 16 (478). Steven Milam (105) – SS – Cetennial HS (NM) – Committed to LSU 17 (508). Ethan McElvain (106) – LHP – Nolensville HS (TN) – Committed to Vanderbilt 18 (538). James Ellwanger (107) – RHP – Magnolia West H (TX) – Committed to Dallas Baptist 19 (568). Luke McNeillie (109) – RHP – Milton HS (GA) – Committed to Florida 20 (598). Dylan Cupp (111) – SS – Cedartown HS (GA) – Committed to Mississippi St.
Other undrafted or late round Top 200 HS players you could swap: Alex Sosa – C; Justin Lee – RHP; Parker Detmers – RHP; Wil Libbert – LHP; Colin Fisher – LHP; Hunter Dietz – LHP; Cam Kozeal – SS; Zion Rose – C; Gavin Grahovac – OF; Cameron Flukey – RHP; Cam Clayton – SS; Cal Fisher – SS; Campbell Smithwick – C; Gabe Gaeckle – RHP (drafted in Round 20); Chance Mako – RHP; Jacob Gholston (drafted in Round 17); Tate McGuire – RHP; Aidan Knaak RHP
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2023 15:47:01 GMT -5
Any objections to the thread title change?
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2023 10:20:22 GMT -5
Draft signing are starting to come in. Braves and Angels signed their 1st rounders to announced deals and the Braves added a couple more. I like Nolan Schanuel and all, but boy if I were an Angels fan I would have hoped that deal would have come in underslot.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 12, 2023 18:51:01 GMT -5
Antonio Anderson and Kristian Campbell are part of the same Atlanta area baseball academy and I imagine are buds:
Anderson on left, Campbell on right
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 16:49:41 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 15:38:41 GMT -5
Is Dylan Schlaegel completely unsignable? or is he a guy who might take 250-300K if they have enough money laying around? I suppose none of you really don't know.....so don't kill my dream. It’s a good question, and I don’t know but I will say there have been exactly two unsigned HS picks on Day 3 of each of the last two drafts (since 20 rounds were implemented). So that suggests to me the Sox don’t want to put all of their insurance eggs in one basket. Who knows though…maybe a surprise.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 14:40:51 GMT -5
Love the name. But is there any chance he's anything more than a contingency pick? No I think his draft position makes it pretty clear he is insurance only. The way Day 3 has played out, I’m thinking Antonio Anderson is getting a big, big bonus.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 14:01:05 GMT -5
This is about the spot where we tend to take some contingency picks
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 12:18:29 GMT -5
The FaBIO ratings for the 114 college hitters taken on Days 1 and 2 have Justin Riemer at #2 overall (behind only Nolan Schanuel) and Kristian Campbell at #15 overall (or just ahead of Jacob Gonzalez).
Will these guys be better than Dylan Crews who ranks just below both? Ha...no. Does that make this rating system worthless? Nah, not worthless, although there are serious limitations. For one, these models don't take into account exit velocity or any other metric of how hard a ball is hit. Instead, these models only factor in batted ball type (e.g., GB vs. LD vs. FB). Further, I think some of the weighting of batted ball profile is a bit wonky and I have some questions about overall FaBIO scores that get computed. Clearly guys like Reimer and Campbell do very well in the models due to elite to near elite on-base skills and contact rates. Their batted ball data definitely leaves something to be desired and we as fans should take that into account even if they're not really showing up in those players' overall FaBIO scores. I don't want anyone to think that I'm promoting this stuff and claiming we got the steals of the century.
All that said, I do think the FaBIO ratings certainly pick up on a skillset of high value to the Red Sox. These guys fit the Chase Meidroth profile quite well in a hit/approach sense and he is another guy who FaBIO was high on. Low and behold, Meidroth is now a top 20 prospect in our system and a guy whose name I see with relevance for dynasty fantasy baseball leagues. Campbell in particular has a set of tools that are quite interesting to complement the advanced hit/approach. These are interesting dudes for sure.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 10:15:44 GMT -5
I'm going to be slightly annoying and repost something I posted in one of the earlier draft threads because its most relevant now:
So here we are on Day 3 and this draft looks remarkably similar in strategy to last year's draft. That leads me to believe that the Red Sox have minimal (if any) $ to overslot today. The big question for me related to that is: Does Antonio Anderson get the Roman Anthony sized bonus (~$2.5M) or something more in line with Blaze Jordan ($1.75M)? My guess though is that there is a preference with a 20 round draft to have the majority of the bonus pool allocated for Day 1 and 2 picks and to draft at slot in Day 3 in addition to drafting a backup contingency plan should something fall through with planned spending.
The big thing to pay attention today is: Who do we select in Round 11? Is it a college player likely to accept the max slot offer (Marques Johnson) or at least near slot (Niko Kavadas)? If so, I think thats a strong sign that no substantial spending is planned for today. If that 11th round pick is a HS guy of any pedigree (doesn't have to be top 100 by any means but someone with some buzz), then there may be a little $ to play with (thinking something along the lines of a Brannon or Northcut type of bonus). One other important thing to remember: There will almost certainly be a HS pick or two today with some pedigree! That said, if those picks even occur in Round 13 or later, I'd view them purely as contingency picks unlikely to sign along the lines of 2022: Rd 13 - Gavin Kilen, Rd 14 - Travis Sanders, 2021: Rd 13: Zach Ehrhard, Rd 15: Payton Green. I think the HS pick has to be in Round 11 to have a shot of signing excluding some off-the-board HS picks in the last few rounds eager to start their career like Deundre Jones.
|
|