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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 10:38:50 GMT -5
But unlike Tampa Bay we have the finances to resign him, and I believe any team could work out a deal with Lester before a trade or offer him a QO if he bolts so they can get picks for him. Wade Davis, really? Only cause he was in TB doesn't make him good. He is a 5th at best. Any team that gets Lester can't use the QO to get compensatory picks, that changed in the last CBA. That's another part of the better return on Samardizja- not only are the A's getting the 1.5 seasons out of him, but they'll also get picks when he inevitably walks for a bigger deal than the A's can/will give him. It's not like Wade Davis is/was great, but he was still cheap and team controlled for a long time, and a useful arm. Regardless, Taveras is a pipe dream unless Lester decides to sign an extension with the Cards as part of the trade, although if he were to do that, I agree that Taveras should be the starting point for the asking price, even if we have to kick in some cash to pay for part of Lester's extension should that happen
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 9:43:05 GMT -5
How much would including Doubront help the return? Given that he's a versatile lefty who can start, still has some upside (maybe), and is cheap and team controlled for a while, I would've thought he'd be a solid piece, maybe not on his own, but packaged with Peavy and cash? I don't see why we couldn't get a solid prospect for that. Don't know anything about Reyes though, maybe that's a lowball offer?
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 9:02:00 GMT -5
I know teams value prospects more highly now, and that Sabathia was probably a better pitcher in 2008 than Lester is now, but the Brewers gave up one guy who was a pretty highly touted prospect (Matt Laporta) and another guy who turned into a good major league player (michael Brantley) plus 2 other guys I've never heard of (a throw in pitcher and a bullpen arm). Laporta was actually mlb.com's 14th overall prospect at the time. So it's not unreasonable to imagine that a contending team that needs a boost in their rotation (and I think there are definitely a few out there) would give us at least a top-50 guy and some other pieces for Lester, and that's before considering that we could package him with a useful bullpen guy, and even potentially a prospect or two of our own from a position of depth (middle infield or pitching) to improve the return.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 16:16:59 GMT -5
I'd be interested in making a run at him, but I would've thought we don't have the prospects. I don't know why the asking price would be much lower than the one for Stanton, and most people don't seem to think we could actually pull that off. Tulo is, when healthy, a better player now. If he could be had for Betts and Swihart plus a couple of other high upside guys, or one or 2 of the near-ready pitchers, I would do it I think. If we could keep both Owens and Swihart, I would absolutely do it, because much as I like Mookie, he's the one guy that we might have to force open a spot for, whereas Swihart I think will be a really good catcher, which is rare. Owens should be untouchable at this stage just because of the cost of good pitching on the open market, and the fact that we might lose Lester. Owens is the best internal bet to replace his production in the next few years, even if it's a bit of a long shot that he actually does it
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 16:03:39 GMT -5
Lester will get 6 years on the open market and perhaps 7. Detroit will give him Scherzer's contract (6 at 144 million) in offseason if Scherzer bolts of Yanks. If Scherzer signs with Detroit, yanks will go 6. I think Lester could make is to $150 million. As for 4 years, you are completely deluded. Why would he do 4 years if his agent knows he's getting 6 at 20 million plus per on the open market. You post suggests Sox have leverage. Sox in fact have ZERO leverage and Lester's people know it. A six year deal would take Lester through his age 36 season. Lackey is 35 now and all Sox fans want him next year for his age 36 season. 6 years is viable; 7 is not happening. Who do you think is going to sign up to pay a 37-year old Jon Lester $20m+? The answer is nobody. Someone else has already responded on the 4 year question, but I'd say why wouldn't he take $25m per year over the next 4, knowing that if he pitches decently, he will still be able to make about $30-$40m over the 2-3 season after that. You're overrating what his market value is right now pretty significantly: I'm pretty sure Detroit isn't going to throw a Scherzer offer at him. My guess is that the high end of his market is in the 6 years, $125m-$135m range. You seem to be forgetting that Detroit gave a chunk of its Scherzer money to Miggy in the offseason, I seriously doubt they have the money for a deal like that for Lester. All of that being said, it's perfectly reasonable to think Lester might take a lot of guaranteed money over the next 4 years, stay in Boston (which is clearly his preference) and bet that he can probably get a 2-3 year deal at 34 between $10-15m a year, and wind up making more money than he would've had he maxed out the years of his contract initially. I'm not suggesting the Sox have leverage anyway: I'm suggesting that they now have a deadline to work with, and they should approach the situation with that in mind. Give him a compromise offer initially, if he's still unwilling, you give him your best offer, and then work to find the best return for him on the trade market if he's not receptive. Maybe I'm being a little optimistic on Lester's price, but you're clearly way off base too. Scherzer is younger, if only slightly, and by consensus a better pitcher than Lester. What's the precedent for Lester getting 7 years? CC Sabathia? He sucks already and the Yankees are on the hook for another $30m+ at least. Kershaw? He's 26. The per annum salaries are going up for pitchers, but nobody's handing out 7 year deals to 30 year olds, there's too much injury/decline risk
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 15:16:13 GMT -5
Well we don't know exactly how deep the Dodgers pockets are, but everything we've seen from them recently would suggest that they could definitely be interested in re-signing/signing Lester this offseason. It's true that they won't give up much if they do, but they will lose their 1st round pick, and they also wouldn't have Lester down the stretch. I think if they were to deal for Lester, they'd be doing it thinking about this season first and foremost- they can worry about whether or not to re-sign him this offseason. The Pirates make more sense to me, but the Dodgers shouldn't be ruled out- they've been in the Price rumors all year despite a stacked rotation, and Lester will come cheaper than Price, both in terms of money and prospects, if the Dodgers do in fact care at all about how much money they spend. I really hope he's dealt somewhere that he's relatively likely to re-sign though- I can see the yanks offering him an absurd deal this offseason, and I really don't want to see him in pinstripes
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 14:31:47 GMT -5
I want 5/90, wouldn't be upset with 6/105 Probably could have had him for 6x20 in March. Now you are either without one of the best pitchers in the AL next year or will have to pay him 6 x23 or 7x23. You likely made a $20 million mistake or lost your best pitcher - with no replacement. This is called a HUGE screw up. He's not getting a 7 year deal anywhere, that's absurd. I don't know that he'd do 6 for 120 either, my guess is that we offer him 4 for $100m now, if he balks at it, give him a final offer of 5 for $120m, take it or leave it. That's close enough to the absolute limit of what he might get on the open market that I think he definitely takes it so that he can stay in Boston, which he clearly would prefer to do. It also gives him time to sign one or two more short term contracts for decent money, depending on how he ages
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 13:35:01 GMT -5
I think we could get one of those 3 and maybe a lottery ticket or something, but definitely not all 3. That would be the equivalent of us trading Betts, Owens and Swihart in one deal- really unlikely, and not something you do unless you're getting a legit franchise guy. Haren's slipping though, or at least I've heard he is, and I think Pederson is/should be available, and possibly Seager too, but again, we won't be getting both. I doubt Urias would be included in any trade talks that didn't bring back someone like Stanton or a real game changer. They could definitely use Koji though, and that rotation would be just about unbeatable in a playoff series, so I think they'd definitely be interested in a deal. I think Pittsburgh is probably a more likely trade partner though- I think adding Lester would make them the division favorites, and they might not want to have to pay Price $20m for next year after arbitration. Maybe they take the rental for a shot at the series, and consider re-signing him if they make a real run? They have a deep farm and a need at the top of the rotation, I'm sure a fair deal could be worked out.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 11:09:31 GMT -5
Just saw that Rob Bradford wrote that Lester might listen if offered 5 yrs, $120m, which I think is pretty fair. I like the idea of 4 for $100m better, or if we can get him to take a slight discount (5 for $110-$115m), but as long as we don't go over 5 years or somewhere in the low $120m range I'm fine with it. I think everyone is being a little premature in forecasting his downfall- he would be 35-36 at the end of that contract, but he's also having his best year since he was 26 right now, which doesn't really follow a normal aging pattern. He's a lefty with very good command and 4 quality major league pitches- he will probably decline over the next few years, but I think he most likely pitches well enough to justify a contract in that $120m range over 5 years, especially because starting pitching is becoming so expensive
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 9:58:53 GMT -5
If we'd definitely need to get more than piscotty, even if he does look like a pretty promising prospect. I think if we could get him and a solid young arm (one of martinez/wacha/miller/whoever) that's a pretty decent return, but I think you hold out for an elite prospect or try to re-sign Lester. What happens with Price probably dictates what will be done with Lester- if the Rays aren't willing to sell Price yet, Lester will be the best trade option for teams looking for top line starting pitching, and we should be able to get a very good return for him. If Price gets dealt for some absurd package and gets dealt into a tight division race, maybe someone overwhelms us trying to stay competitive. But I still think he's an important piece for the future, and that we're better of keeping him around
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 0:34:29 GMT -5
Don't know if he has much value now anyway. I think you wait for the offseason and see what the asking price is, because it'll probably be lower. I think mookie/swihart, coyle, ranaudo/barnes/webster/whoever, margot and maybe brian johnson and/or marrero? I'm not sure that would be enough for them, I think they probably ask for at least 2 of mookie, swihart and owens plus some others. It seems like teams are valuing prospects extremely highly right now, so I think with the depth and quality of the system, we could put together a competitive offer. But it wold probably have to include owens or mookie and swihart, along with some of our putting depth and possibly a high upside guy like Devers or Margot. I don't think it's worth that much to trade for him now, I would much rather try to sign him as a free agent. They're pretty financially flexible right now, they have no long term contracts on the books but pedroia and the young guys, they should really be able to re-sign Lester and make a run at Stanton in free agency as well in a couple years. I doubt that he'll sign an extension in Miami, cause if he keeps hitting like this, he'll get a huge contract from somewhere, and hopefully it will be us. But I don't think it's a good time to gut the farm for him or anyone else really. The season is pretty much lost, most of the young guys aren't performing, we should give them time to develop and boost their stock. But I don't think it happens till the offseason if it does happen, and I think free agency makes more sense for us
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 2, 2014 15:24:05 GMT -5
This is a completely misguided way of thinking. So Lester, a proven veteran who has been dominant the past 12 or so months, will never be able to repeat what he is actually doing right now, but these prospects who have never done it before will be able to? That is prospect-lover logic and makes no sense. The best bet to be an All Star is the guy who is currently an All Star. Fact. Show me how many proven veterans who sign 5-7 year deals beginning in their age-31 seasons retain the effectiveness that earned them such a contract. Yes, Lester is throwing up the best ERA- and FIP- of his career, but looking past these three nice months, he's also a pitcher who has shown us during the last few seasons that he's not a consistent ace-type pitcher. There's no way to know that the prospects will become all-star pitchers, but they're young, cheap, and have plenty of scouting and statistical support that make the idea of letting Lester walk rather than handing him a monstrous contract through his decline seasons a bright idea, even if none of them ever match Lester's peak. Cliff Lee, although his production fell off slightly, partly cause he missed some time, but he's still well worth his contract by today's market standards. I'm sure Clemens, but he was roiding. Nolan Ryan's late career maybe? Bartolo Colon (suspect) and Andy Petitte maybe? Different contracts, but that doesn't mean they didn't put up strong numbers after 31 or so. I think Lee is a solid comp though, even if Lester's peak years aren't as good as Lee's, we're also not expecting Lester to keep putting up 5+ WAR per year like Lee, and he doesn't need to in the current market to make a ~5yr, $120m deal probably worth it over the course of the contract. Plus, it speaks to the way the Sox treat established stars with long tenure, and it doesn't look good, especially if the only offer that's on record is the 4yrs, $70m (which has been so widely reported and not really denied that I'm sure it's pretty accurate). If we were the Rays, with little hope of ever signing marquee free agents under our current ownership/management, it wouldn't really matter. But this team has deep pockets and is extremely profitable- right now they look cheap, and that's probably not a good thing
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 2, 2014 15:12:32 GMT -5
Based on what I've seen I can't believe any of these pitchers will approach Lester's career numbers or level of performance in their careers. [...] But to the overriding point, I just don't see any Jon Lester-type replacements (i.e. a #2 starter who on occasions pitches like a #1) here, not just next year, but projecting up to 3 years out. Well, that's just the thing. Lester won't approach Lester's career numbers or level of performance, possibly by as soon as year one of his new contract, and certainly by years three or four. For instance, I'm pretty confident that, going forward, Lester will never pitch better than he has the first half of 2014, and we shouldn't assume that if we re-sign him, he's going to be a top-of-the-rotation guy. I think he's going to be more of a mid-rotation, above-average innings-eater going forward (and the projections agree; Oliver projects him for a 4.04 ERA/3.4 WAR season in 2015, while Steamer has him at 3.3 WAR/200 IP going forward), and that guy is eminently replaceable. Well Oliver also projected pretty similar stats to those for this year, so I can't say I place too much faith in it as a projection. I think right now statistical projections for Lester are probably going to be somewhat skewed by a pretty weak 2012, and somewhat mediocre first half of 2013. Personally, I place more weight on what he's done for roughly his past season's worth of starts, which I think probably has a little more predictive value, especially for at least the 1st 2-3 years of his next contract. I'm not saying he's going to continue to throw like this for the next few years, but I think a drop off as steep as that is unlikely, especially cause he's not particularly reliant on velocity, which is already in decline. I think it's more likely that he's made an adjustment to his approach, and I think he's shown outstanding command, and that's really been the key. I see him as something like a poor man's Cliff Lee, which would mean that he's probably worth $20m+ per year at least for the next couple of seasons, and if Homer Bailey can get 5yrs, $105m, then that's maybe even a little conservative. And while I also think De La Rosa and Owens are going to be good major league pitchers, but I can't see them replacing Lester's production until at least 2016-2017, and it's also important to note that we need one of them individually to replace him, rather than a combination- if we get 4 WAR out of 2 rotation spots instead of out of one, we've lost something significant.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 2, 2014 14:08:51 GMT -5
I think they should make every effort to resign him up to 5 years $120m, which I think might not be quite what he could get on the open market (I could see 6 years as something like $135m from someone like the yankees.) Beyond that, I let him walk. But I don't think the high minors pitching prospects factor into the decision that much. We probably have a couple of rotation spots open up next year, plus the inevitable buchholz replacement starts for a 3rd guy, which probably puts RDLR, Webster and Ranaudo solidly in the majors, with Barnes and Owens at Pawtucket to start the year, barring trades. But it would be the height of optimism to think that any of those guys can perform like a borderline ace for several years while consistently throwing 200 innings, even if it is certainly possible that one or two of them reach or exceed their perceived ceilings at this stage, so in terms of a Lester deal, it shouldn't factor, because they will not be replacing his production, and we need someone like him/near his caliber to really contend for the World Series
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 2, 2014 11:25:11 GMT -5
I forgot they dealt their 1st this year to Atlanta before the pierce/KG deal. That's disappointing. Still, as we're not going to compete this year, I would be ok with taking on boozer's contract if it came with Butler and picks. We'd have some pretty ridiculous perimeter defense with any 3 of rondo, smart, bradley and butler out there, and boozer's actually an expiring at this point, which makes him somewhat useful to us. His cap figure is 16.8m this year- pretty much fits exactly with bogans' deal and the trade exception, although if they were to include Butler we'd have to include someone else to make the contracts add up I imagine. And the loss of Kidd and Livingston, along with Pierce in all likelihood, and possibly KG, with a completely capped out team, makes those picks more valuable. Is there any way that the nets aren't one of the league's 3 worst teams in 2 years when half their cap is taken up by williams and joe johnson?
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 2, 2014 9:52:30 GMT -5
Yea the cap is going up in a big way whenever they renegotiate the national TV deal. Also, they probably aren't thinking too much about free agency at this point. The Nets are being blown up right now, we'll probably have 2 top-10 picks in next years draft, plus the clippers pick, which means either we'll add a couple of good young players or we'll have some pretty good assets for any trade. I think next offseason is going to be the one where we figure out exactly what the long term plan is going to be. Either Rondo will be gone and we'll probably have even more picks, or we'll have kept him around, which will probably mean that Ainge is looking to use those picks to make a deal. At this stage, I think this offseason is already pretty much over for us, with a mostly full roster and no cap space. I think bogans gets dealt to help some other team free up cap space and we'll probably get a pick or 2 out of it, or maybe someone like Jimmy butler from the bulls if they really need the cap space. Do we still have the amnesty clause? Cause if we do, I wouldn't mind getting a pick or 2 and butler from chicago, taking boozers contract and amnestying him and sending bogans back so they can max out their cap space for melo/whoever. We should use that trade exception now when its probably most valuable and try to get some assets out of the teams looking for stars, given that we're clearly not going to be players in free agency
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 1, 2014 15:08:55 GMT -5
While I'm sure he's not happy with his own performance, I seriously doubt he reads these boards, so I can't imagine the "bust" thing is going to get to him. I know it's been around elsewhere, but it's got to be pretty easy to avoid the negativity for a prospect like him. Even with the increase in the hype around prospects in general, if he doesn't pan out, we'll all have forgotten his name in 5 years, or at least, nobody will care/talk about him the way NBA fans do with someone like Greg Oden. Anyone remember Jason Place? As far as his development goes, I think you keep putting him out there and see what happens. It's not like he's not throwing on the side, working with the coaching staff on mechanics, etc. He also needs to learn how to pitch in situations, and how to work/read hitters, things that I think can only really be taught through game experience. While I'm sure this stretch hasn't been great for his confidence, it only takes one good start to turn it around, and I think a demotion at this stage would really shoot his confidence in a much more damaging way. They may have been too aggressive in terms of placement with him, but there's no easy way to turn back now, so I think we just have to have patience and faith that he'll figure it out at some point
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 1, 2014 8:48:05 GMT -5
In that case I'd say walk away. His numbers are definitely inflated by the PCL/the park they play in, and I'd much rather keep and re-sign lester than deal him for pederson. It'll be much easier to find another solid outfielder than it will to replace Lester this offseason
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 30, 2014 15:40:55 GMT -5
Well it's clear I was wrong about his arm strength, that was pretty impressive. The only thing I would say is that I feel like there are a number of guys that have the arm to play short/left side of the infield, but when you move them to shorter throwing distances, they struggle and get erratic, so maybe that would be a problem? Otherwise, sign me up for mookie at short against lefties at least until Middlebrooks is healthy, at which point we should have him and xander on the left side of the infield against lefties. Honestly, anything that gets stephen drew out of the line up at this stage is a big plus in my eyes
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 30, 2014 15:34:18 GMT -5
Ivan Nova and Chris Archer both had pretty brutal starts to their professional careers (Nova played well in the DSL though). But their comparisons aren't perfect either: Archer pitched in rookie ball for his debut, and missed more bats than Ball has. Nova was purely a groundball pitcher with no swing and miss stuff and not really on the prospect radar much at that point. Neither of these guys had the expectations of a #7 overall pick. Yea but we're not talking about in relation to expectations, just guys who started badly and and then recovered. Really, the nature of the problem should be irrelevant. It's clear Ball needs some time to work out some issues. Given that he turned 20 less than a week ago, I'd say he's got a pretty good chance to improve. I'm not even saying he's definitely going to make it to the majors some day, but I'm pretty confident that his development isn't going to stall out at Greenville getting crushed by A-ball hitters. I'll be a little worried if there isn't some visible progress by the end of the year though
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 30, 2014 13:57:05 GMT -5
So are there any recent examples of pitching prospects who've been as bad as Ball in their initial exposure to pro ball, but gone on to respectable careers? Real question, not rhetorical. Daniel Bard is the one guy that comes to mind for me, although his career might be too short to be considered respectable. Still, his problems were probably a little bigger-he was averaging 8 walks/9IP in A ball coming out of college and threw more than 60 IP, and he never figured out how to control the strike zone as a starter. Finding any more probably requires more intensive research than I'm willing to do, so I gave up after checking like 5 more guys fan graphs
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 30, 2014 13:19:34 GMT -5
How about Barnes/Ranaudo and doubront for pederson? He's a highly valued prospect, but that gives them a guy who could be a valuable lefty out of the pen with the ability to start, and a solid, near major-league ready starting pitcher as well, both cost controlled. It doesn't look like they're going to find a way to fit pederson into that outfield this year. Alternately, if we're in sell mode, I could see packaging koji and a pitching prospect to try to get him, and maybe include brock holt? Not sure if these would get the deal done, but I think the dodgers have to consider them, their pen has struggled pretty badly despite a lot of pricey arms, either of those guys should give them a boost, are relatively cheap, and with holt/ranaudo/barnes attached, there's some decent upside to the deal as well
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 30, 2014 13:12:49 GMT -5
Get rid of Drew and Herrera. I know dumping Drew is a long shot, but I can't stand watching him any more. I'd much rather see bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Holt and betts take the at bats he's currently getting, Herrera goes to the minors, and we'll see if Victorino ever gets back. The most recent prognosis on him didn't seem too positive. I wonder if we're really in sell mode at the deadline if Holt might get moved? He's another guy for whom the Sox don't really have a spot, and I think they'd get a solid return for him, especially if they packaged him with a mid-tier prospect or someone like doubront. I like him, and he's hit well for us this year, but he's 26 with limited upside, and if this season really is a lost cause, I'd rather mookie got his at bats, and he's probably more valuable to a contending team with a hole at any infield spot than he is to us
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 15:33:18 GMT -5
Well with Owens, whose change, like most guys, has arm side fade, the cutter would (I imagine) be an excellent weapon off the change. If he can use the same arm action and throw a cutter in the mid-high 80s breaking the opposite direction from the change, along with the natural deception he seems to already have in his delivery, I can only assume it would be pretty devastating. But obviously that's total conjecture
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 14:54:07 GMT -5
Heard talk that Bradley might get shipped out in a sign and trade. I think honestly that seeing as Embiid didn't fall, this is about as well as the draft could've gone. I think Smart ended up being a little underrated, and I think he's more of a 2/combo guy than a point guard at this point. Young is definitely a 3, which we'll need in the relatively near future. I think we deal Rondo at the deadline this coming season in all likelihood, because next offseason won't be the time for us to take on a max salary, unless we can add another star. I also think that, after next year's draft, we won't be very far away from playoff contention in the east again. 3 1sts next year, along with Young and Smart, plus the other young pieces we have and cap space once wallace, humphries and Green's deals run out, and a strong draft for bigs next year, so we can finally get the rim protection we need. And the best part is that we'll still have picks to flip and potentially some expendable young players on cheap contracts if a star becomes available via trade. It wasn't exciting, but I think we're well set up for the long term, we have a good front office and I'm a Stevens' believer. Playoff contention in 2 years tops; that's how I see it. And in the meantime, enjoy tickets while they're cheap(er)
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