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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 14:36:05 GMT -5
The slider usage fell off after his peak years (dropped from 16% to 11% in 2007, which is the year he went from being a 7 WAR pitcher to a 4.5-5 WAR one. Don't know what kind of standard we're using exactly for what a good big league number 3 looks like, but that can't be too far off if that's what one is thinking of as peak production for Owens, and maybe that would even put him into the #2 range. It does fit better as a comp at that stage too, because the velocity is closer and he started throwing the change about 30% of the time then. I can't agree with a peak Santana bench mark though. I think you might be misinterpreting the average velo. If Owens sat 91-93 early in that last start, while dropping to 89-92 later on, his average velocity was probably in the 90-91 range, rather than the 92-93 that Santana's fangraphs show. That 93ish average velocity is about where Lester was at a few years ago, when he would hit 96 a couple of times every start, so I'm pretty sure Santana threw harder, which is also how I remember it. All of that being said, I agree that saying that Owens' ceiling is a #3 doesn't make sense to me. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to see him sharpening his curve and maybe even adding a cutter while improving command and at least holding that velocity gain so that he's sitting in that 90-93 range deep into games, and if he does 2-3 of those 4, he's going to be a good MLB starter. If he does all of them and reaches his theoretical ceiling, and maybe adds an mph or too, which might be possible given his frame, I think he has a chance to be a legit top of the rotation guy, more of a lester than a Kershaw or prime Santana or whoever, but certainly not you run of the mill mid rotation guy
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 13:56:30 GMT -5
I'm preparing myself to be disappointed when he is called up before September, like I was disappointed when JBJ broke in with the MLB team. They're pretty substantially different prospects with drastically different development curves, I really don't think this is a valid comparison at all. Check their profiles on this site and their full minor league stats. One of them is a college player who was very polished when drafted, excelled in the lower minors, then played well enough after that to keep getting promoted, largely based on an excellent approach at the plate and great defense. The other one is a freak athlete drafted out of high school who struggled in his 1st exposure to pro ball and has absolutely torn it up ever since, at every level, without exception. Read that speier article someone linked earlier. There's really almost no similarity
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 13:47:42 GMT -5
Please don't take this as a comp or a projection. Just a generic question. If Owens does all of Ian's checklist and ends up with a solid-average to plus fastball with improved command a plus-plus change <----------- !!!!! average or maybe even slightly better third offering. How is that different from another lefty, Johan Santana at his peak ? I thought Santana had a little more velocity (93-96) and a plus slider/cutter, with the added velocity obviously helping his changeup's effectiveness. But apart from that, I like that thought, cause I can't think of any other problems with it
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 11:55:24 GMT -5
Our old friend Chih-Hsien Chiang went from hitting .260/.312/.420 as a 22-year-old in Portland in 2010 to hitting .340/.402/.648 as a 23-year-old in Portland in 2011 (in 358 PAs!). He then turned back into a pumpkin, never surpassing a .720 OPS in any subsequent year. Now, I'm not saying that Coyle is going to turn into Chiang, I'm just saying that flukey things happen in small samples. For instance, given Coyle's strikeout rate, I wouldn't expect him to hit .300 (or even .280) in any full season in the majors (absent extreme improvement in his contact rate, that is). I would focus less on the unsustainably high batting average that he's put up this year, and focus more on the improvements he's made in his strikeout rate (down to 22.5%, compared to 29% last year in Salem) and whether he can stay healthy the rest of the year. Based on his current peripherals, if his BABIP was a more reasonable .330 or so (still higher than league-average, to account for his potential above-average hardness of contact), he'd be hitting something like .260/.340/.490, which is still excellent, especially for a middle infielder. Yea but that's a very different situation. Chiang repeated a level, and Coyle is 22 now, and only had 225 PAs in Salem. I get the small sample size argument, and the BABIP one too, but at some point, it has to be conceded that he's probably better than we thought. Or maybe just than I thought, but I definitely think that people thinking of him as a utility infielder are short selling him, which was my main point from the beginning. I highly doubt he maintains a .444 BABIP for much longer, but I also don't know that it falls 25% when there are some other encouraging peripherals to go with it. I also don't want to get ahead of myself and predict an MLB stat line for him, but I would like to point out that Napoli hit .330 a couple years ago with Texas. Obviously that was something of a fluke, and I'm not saying that Coyle is going to be some shorter version of Nap, but I would say that it's perfectly possible that Coyle could get over .280 in the majors. Basically, my main point is that the numbers, and the reports as well to a point, suggest at this stage that as a prospect, he projects to be substantially better than a utility guy. That doesn't mean I think he's going to hit .350/.420/.590 at the big league level, or even necessarily for a full season of AA, but the longer he does it, the more he looks like a legit quality starter for a big league team, especially if he sticks at 2B
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 11:41:00 GMT -5
I remember reading he projected as maybe a 5th round pick as an outfielder, but regardless, he has way less upside if we convert him. It's glaringly obvious that he's going to need a lot of development, but I feel like that was always the case. Given the strength of the system and how high the pick was, the Sox gambled on upside, presumably knowing that it would probably take at least 2 years to see significant results. If he repeats Greenville next year and dominates (completely possible, no matter what conclusions you have drawn from his stat line/what's been written about him) he'll be a 20 year old, 6'6 lefty, whose frame probably still won't have filled out, heading at least to A+ ball in 2016. That sounds pretty good to me. Obviously, I'd rather he looked like Henry Owens, who had great K numbers his first year out of high school, but Owens still posted a mid-4.00s ERA, walked a ton of hitters, and had been a full time pitcher playing year round in California. So I think the path is pretty obvious, as long as the stats have improved by the time he can legally drink
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 11:28:13 GMT -5
Yea but those teams we're 2 games ahead of (I'm assuming you mean the Rays specifically) have unquestionably been worse, and are in worse shape, without the capacity to take on salary if they want to. Moore is out for the year, I feel like Hellickson's out still too, they lost Rodney this offseason, and in general are a much weaker team than last year, especially with Will Myers going through a sophomore slump and Longoria underperforming. We have guys that will come back healthy and may contribute, and a lot more high minors talent that could contribute. I'm thinking about both timing and the possibility of winning. We still could turn it around, even if the odds against it are pretty long, so that's one argument for holding off. The other is the improvement in the market and what we might get for anyone who we might trade. Taken together, it's a pretty convincing argument to wait a few weeks. I'm reserving judgment until it actually makes sense to sell, because why not? The core of last year's team is still here, so lets see if they can turn it around a little bit, it's not like Cherington's not going to be engaging in talks anyway, I'm sure he's already fielding calls on a bunch of guys. Post all-star break, we should know for sure if this team has any real shot of getting into the race, and if they don't, sell off the short term guys we have (Pierzynski, Drew, Koji, maybe Miller) and maybe see if packaging them with an expendable prospect or 2 (Coyle, Barnes, Ranaudo) or Doubront can bring us back a young player who can help in the longer run, preferably in the outfield at this stage. That also gives us a chance to keep pushing development of the young guys, cause I think Owens, Johnson, and Swihart could all handle AAA right now, and I wouldn't mind seeing Vasquez in Boston, although I'd like him to hit a little more first ideally
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 9:57:27 GMT -5
The point of not selling yet and seeing if we can make a run is that we also have very little to gain by selling now. As compared to the other teams that people expect to sell (Tampa, the Cubs, Padres, etc.), we are in much better shape. As we get closer to the deadline, teams will get more desperate to make a splash, and if we show no signs of recovering, we can sell everyone we decide to at peak value. Even if we don't show real signs of improvement, maybe peavy makes 3-4 solid starts in a row and boosts his trade value, or a Price deal makes the potential return for Lester/Lackey so attractive that we have to pull the trigger on a deal. But any way you look at it, it costs us nothing, except maybe a couple of spots in next year's draft, to hold of for a few weeks on selling off all our useful assets and see if this team can do something, and it's more likely to improve the returns we might get anyway, cause guys like Peavy and Doubront can't really have their stock go much lower than it is right now
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 9:45:15 GMT -5
I think people looking at him as a utility guy/bench player are short selling him, or at least his potential. Those numbers are pretty crazy, and it's not like he's old for the level. Admittedly, the average doesn't fit with his track record, but going from .250ish in high A to .360ish in AA can't all be flukish BABIP luck, and he's 22, so it's not like we can't/shouldn't expect development. I think we probably deal him, but I also think he makes a very solid trade chip in the relatively near future, and has a good shot at being at least a decent starter for someone in the long run
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 9:35:15 GMT -5
What's the point of moving him to the outfield now? Why wouldn't we at least give him another full season or 2 pitching? It was obvious from the beginning that he was going to have a long way to go (cold weather state, started throwing a curve senior year of high school, payed OF half the time, 6'6 180), giving up on all his upside now is absurdly short-sighted. Or pessimistic. Or both. And if he really can't figure it out as a pitcher, maybe we can try him in the outfield, but they obviously aren't going to bail on a guy who still has as good as shot as most guys to develop into something. This isn't the NBA or the NFL: you can't label someone a bust within a year of their being drafted and expect people to take you seriously. I know it's not a great long term example, but Bard was horrendous early in his minor league career, then developed into one of the best relievers in the game until we screwed him up trying to turn him into a starter
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 26, 2014 14:03:21 GMT -5
To the people who have voted "Too early to make a judgment" - What kind of apocalyptic sign are you waiting for? We currently trail SEVEN teams for the second wild card spot. Well some of those teams look like they're probably not going to sustain that performance- the Yankees, for one, have a worse run differential than us, a bunch of guys with no track record over performing, and a very old roster. The Twins are pretty suspect, especially given we just saw them score something like 3 runs total in a 3 game set at Fenway, I don't think they're a better team than the sox. And most teams have had better injury luck than us as well. I think the Angels and Mariners are way better than us right now, but that could change with some improved performances- Bogaerts getting out of his slump, Pierzynski and Bradley hitting a little better, Middlebrooks coming back to play 3b against lefties instead of drew being there, etc. The rotation minus Peavy/Doubront and with a healthier looking Buch and one of RDLR and Workman should be improved too. So it's not a huge stretch to think that, with an injury or 2, or a slump by a key hitter on LAA or Seattle, we could be right back in it. Baltimore and KC don't scare me too much, the Royals have a number of line up holes and a worse staff than us, and I feel pretty sure that the O's don't have the pitching, plus Machado and Davis have regressed. None of those teams, to my knowledge, can expect to improve simply by getting potentially major pieces healthy or promoting people (maybe Baltimore with Bundy, or the M's with their pitching prospects, but they might be hurt?). The Sox should be a better offensive team with Middlebrooks back in the lineup over Drew some of the time, and if Victorino ever gets healthy, he should also be a difference maker. And Mookie Betts is the wildcard. So yea, it's a month to the deadline, and we're not quite at the midpoint of the season, I'm pretty sure we can afford to wait 2-3 weeks and see if this team starts performing better, because if they pick it up soon, we're not out of it. Way stranger things have happened
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 16:11:17 GMT -5
Also, although I believe someone else has said this already, Mookie is not a 3B. And won't be. If they moved him off SS because of a fringy arm, he's obviously not getting moved to 3B, where his arm would likely be well below average
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 15:26:51 GMT -5
Bill Simmons had us doing something like this: espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=jvkdnfp, while also including the 8th pick for us. I think in order for Detroit to take that deal, we'd probably have to give up the 17th pick, although if I were Detroit, I'd be trying harder to get some value back for Greg Monroe, I think Smith and Drummond would be an absolutely terrifying front line if they could get some shooting in the backcourt/on the wing, and a sign and trade of monroe to the right team might bring back more, cause Smith's contract looks terrible right now
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 14:25:59 GMT -5
I think that's fair on Betts, but I'd say that if the AA guys look ready, move them up. Who cares if they win the Eastern League or not? As of right now, that team is dominant, and they mostly don't seem to be being challenged adequately. Mookie also was in AA for the 1st time this year, and while he's performed better than most of them, Owens and Johnson at least probably should get the call, assuming we can find room for them in Pawtucket. I'd like to see Vasquez in the bigs and Swihart in AAA too, and I wouldn't mind seeing Marrero pushed a little too, or Coyle, given the ridiculous numbers he's been putting up
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 14:17:52 GMT -5
As for Jon Lester, I hope Ben gives him his absolute best offer NOW and see if that will work. If he is not fine with it, move him before July 31st. Agreed. If he's not going to stick around we can get a much better return than a draft pick or 2 for him
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 13:48:04 GMT -5
Is it possible that if we included a solid pitching prospect like Barnes or Ranaudo the Dodgers would part with Pederson? I know at this stage they probably would like to keep him, but they can't dump salary on themselves, and nobody else is willing to pay Crawford or Kemp, or even Ethier for what he is now. I think they have to wait out those contracts and add to Puig and the rest of the core through free agency, and whatever other prospects they can develop, but Pederson would be ideal for us now, and everyone could use a good pitching prospect. At this stage, we have 5-6 guys that look like they should be able to be solid major league starting pitchers in the high minors, they have a crowded outfield and a weak farm system in terms of arms, apart from that one crazy young lefty that Keith Law loves (Urias?), so I think that matches up pretty well. They'd have a dominant pen with Jansen and Koji, although they've also been a disappointment this year, so that might not appeal as much to them now
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 13:37:55 GMT -5
I'm opposed to trading Lester at all. Ownership clearly doesn't want to hand out big contracts to free agents, so if Lester is willing to take a discount on his market value, keeping in mind that the market for free agent pitching in the wake of some of the recent contracts is a little crazy, we should jump on it. It's not like we're going to go sign Scherzer or someone, the Rays aren't trading us Price, so where else do we get a staff anchor? Even if you're bullish on Owens, he's clearly not going to be in the majors to start next season, let alone replace Lester. Buchholz is completely unreliable, Lackey's aging and probably not quite as good as Lester anyway, so I say keep Lester as long as the cost isn't prohibitive, Mookie takes one OF spot next year, and with luck, Bradley works himself into being an acceptable hitter once you consider his defense. Victorino can act as a bridge until someone else is ready. I really like Margot, but he's obviously not close to being ready, and I also like the idea of signing Jason Heyward, or ideally getting Stanton, but regardless, I think we're better off not only this year and next, but probably for at least the next 4 years if we keep Lester. I'd just rather we didn't go much beyond 5 years, ~$110-$115m for him
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 13:24:51 GMT -5
And, at least based on what I've read, he's been solid in CF so far
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 12:47:29 GMT -5
. . . victorino's hitting .048 in Pawtucket right now so I don't see him being recalled any time soon, You're joking right? You do realize he has only 21 plate appearances there? The Sox (or any other major league team) are not going to base their decision on a well-established major leaguer based on BA over 21 PA's. It will be internal scouting and their medical staff (along with Shane) determining when he's ready. Then he'll be in Boston. Yea my point being he's clearly not ready right now, because he has 1 hit in 21 plate appearances. Either he's not healthy, in which case he should rest for a while and work on rehab before going back to game action, and even then, given how little he's played this year, he probably needs time to work off the rust, or he's going to take a week or so to adjust anyway, therefore his rehab stint is going to be significantly longer than is normal. Either way, there's time to see if Mookie might be able to contribute now, and we could certainly find a spot for him if he can. I don't get why people on this board seem to always assume everyone else is making the dumbest possible point. Obviously I didn't mean Victorino is now Pawtucket's starting RF for the foreseeable future or something like that, but .048 in 5+ games in AAA? That's not someone I want thrown into the mix in Boston right now, and because this guy is perpetually injured and seems to rush himself back sometimes, we should be cautious, so he will not be back up in the very near future, barring him actually figuring something out
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 11:21:43 GMT -5
Holt actually has hit lefties better so far, although that could be small sample size. If we're throwing in the towel anyway, I say let Bradley try to work it out at the big league level, I don't think success against a lower level of competition would do a ton for him at this stage, although of course I could be wrong
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 11:18:51 GMT -5
Personally I think there are some internal improvements that could be made, and the team has been at least somewhat victimized by bad luck in terms of hitting with runners on and in scoring position, where they were excellent last year with most of the same personnel, and I wouldn't have expected that the losses of ells and salty would have caused that change. I don't think there are many, if any, external trade options that are worth pursuing, given the cost in either money or prospects, so I'd say if there has been no improvement in 2-3 weeks, switch to sell mode, but limit it to players who aren't going to be major pieces going forward. Basically, sell off guys like drew, pierzynski, peavy, doubront and potentially Lackey and Koji if someone overwhelms you with a trade offer, and let the younger, more promising players take their spots (i.e. vazquez, bogaerts at SS, middle brooks/holt at 3b, webster/workman/RDLR/Ranaudo in the rotation). That way we can maybe avoid some growing pains moving forward, and maybe add some more decent prospects/young players, especially in the outfield mix, where I think we have a lot of depth but not much quality
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 10:31:35 GMT -5
I get that he turns 40 soon, but that doesn't mean he's suddenly going to pitch terribly. Rivera was still going strong at 43 when he retired. I think Koji can be a strong reliever for another couple of years. He's not relying on fast fastballs to get hitters out. It's all location with him. If the Red Sox want to have a good shot at winning in 2015, then Koji is the guy you want to close and you want the rotation to be headed by Lester and Lackey. Just because the Sox stink in 2014 doesn't mean that they don't have the pieces in place to be very good in 2015. They need to change the supporting cast and get a strong bat or two. Rivera is more of an exception than the rule, and he threw harder than Koji to begin with. At a certain point, if you're throwing a BP speed fastball, then people are going to hit it. That being said, I just looked at Trevor Hoffman's stats, and he pitched well through his age 41 season and is a better comp I'd say, so maybe I'm being too pessimistic on Koji. Still, he's a free agent this offseason, so he won't offer the same value next year, and who's to say he wouldn't want to leave anyway, given the season we appear to be headed for, and the money he might potentially get elsewhere, and considering that this front office appears to stick pretty strictly to a value based approach to signing players, even if they could afford to match anyone else's offer on a 1-2 year deal
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 10:23:42 GMT -5
Well having watched the last 2 games in Seattle, I'm starting to agree, and think there's no chance that we compete this year. But still, a big reason is the fact that we can't seem to buy a hit with runners on. We have to be top 3 in the majors in runners stranded this year, and I think a stolen base threat, and a probable upgrade over Jackie Bradley or Stephen Drew's bat (at least right now), might make a bigger difference to the line up than we might otherwise think. The window for the season's closing fast, so I'd like to see him get a shot. I would be perfectly happy if for the moment it just meant moving xander back to SS, holt to 3b and bradley to RF in the short term, victorino's hitting .048 in Pawtucket right now so I don't see him being recalled any time soon, Middlebrooks just had a set back, and the offense remains completely stagnant. I like that Bradley opened his stance a little, given that he's struggled with inside pitches, so I want to see him get at least another week or 2 as an everyday player, but especially if we start playing better, I would rather give Mookie a shot than carry a .200 hitter for the rest of the year, cause that .200 average has to be weighing on him too
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 1:39:25 GMT -5
No I'm using stats from 2 weeks ago cause what he did in the first 2+ months of the season are much more telling than his stats over the past 2 weeks, I would've thought that's not too difficult to understand. And if a lack of minor league seasoning is the reason Bogaerts is struggling now why didn't he struggle last year or earlier in the season? For the record, I never said Bogaerts isn't struggling right now. But everyone goes through slumps, does Pedroia need more minor league time now too? Your logic does;t make sense. Beyond that, sure Mookie hasn't reached quite the hype Bogaerts did, and hasn'd had quite the same rave reviews from prospect evaluators. But he's pretty close now. He's in Keith Law's most recent top 25, he's in the futures game, and he's actually probably performed better than Xander did in the minors, while being only marginally more age advanced for his levels. And you're right, this team is in a different place than last year: they need help. So like I said, see if mookie can start something, and if not, why exactly should it shatter his confidence and undo years of development? They called cecchini up already this year, nobody had a problem with it despite the fact he had a half season in AAA with subpar production. He got sent down and actually seems to be improving a little. Anyway, we can agree to disagree on what they should do with Mookie, but don't tell me that a lack of time in AAA is the reason Xander hit his 1st extended big league slump recently, or the reason Middlebrooks has underperformed after his rookie season. That makes absolutely no sense. At worst, the league picked up on some of their flaws that probably wouldn't have been exploited in the minors, and now we will see if they can adjust. More likely, Xander is just fighting through a slump, and Middlebrooks wasn't as good as he seemed then, and when you add in all his nagging injuries, he's never had much of a chance to get it together again. I think Bradley is a more compelling argument, but he is much less similar as a prospect
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 24, 2014 19:31:17 GMT -5
If you really think we're out of it this year, even if you're optimistic about next year, I would see if you can get someone for Koji. He's pushing 40, and probably is a little more replaceable cause people have stopped overpaying closers so frequently, and there's not much point in having an elite closer on a bad team. there are plenty of teams that need bullpen help, so shop him at least and see what's on offer
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 24, 2014 15:50:54 GMT -5
If the Kings were willing to throw another pick into that Rondo deal I'd do it. I think Mclemore still definitely has some upside in him, being a freak athlete with a great stroke is a good starting point. Otherwise we could probably get a good return out of Houston, but not really anything you'd want for a tanking team, probably asik, terence jones, and some picks. Other than that, unless we could get 4 and 12 out of orlando for him, which they might do, although he'd be tough to re-sign for them, I think we wait till next year's deadline and see what happens then. Now that embiid seems like he might slide, I'm less interested in Love. 6,17, Olynyk and a future boston 1st is all I'd do. Unless we can put protections on one of those Brooklyn picks, in which case I'd probably be willing to include one thats top 5-6 protected and becomes our 1st rounder the next year, or if they don't get that pick they get the right to swap picks with us/brooklyn the year we have the right to swap picks with brooklyn. I wouldn't want to include anything more than that though. If we walk away from the draft with embiid and lavine or TJ Warren I'd be pretty happy. I wouldn't mind someone like Saric or Rodney Hood either. It's also possible that we might provide some salary relief for some of these teams that want to make runs at melo and Lebron and get picks back too. I could see us taking on some of chicago's unwanted contracts along with one of those mid-1st rounders in exchange for bogans, who they can waive immediately, and we have trade exceptions that make it easy for us. If we did do that, we might be able to offer 4 1sts for Love as well, without sacrificing the brooklyn picks, along with sully/olynyk, which, especially with golden state unsure over thompson, probably looks pretty attractive given the depth of this draft.
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