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Post by tonyc on May 27, 2014 19:11:34 GMT -5
Good thread. The apex point I can remember in the sox system was around 1972. At the end of '71 a bright group was brought up called "Kasko's kiddy corp" which included Cecil Cooper, Rick Miller, Juan Beniquez, Carlton Fisk. Dwight Evans came up in '72, and Jim Rice was an all star in AA. That's two hall of famers, another for cosideration (Evans), a star (Cooper) and a gold glover (Miller) considered perhaps an even better defensive outfielder than Fred Lynn. And on the pitching side a Detroit scout cited the Sox as having more great minor league arms than anyone, to include 1972 rookie star Lynn Mglothen and Roger Moret who threw mid-90's, and John Curtis. Other good arms were Mike Garmen, Craig Skok, Ken Brett, and Dick Pole (who had a AAA era one year close to 1.99, then got a sore arm). I was dreading a deal which would have sent Mcglothen, Curtis, Skok, and perhaps Cooper to Cleveland for Gaylord Perry- it was blocked by some Cleveland ownership staff- not their "baseball people" and would have probably brought those strong hitting Sox teams just over that edge and perhaps one a pennant or world series or two which they just missed (to this day I overrate prospects value).
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Post by tonyc on Apr 13, 2014 20:52:58 GMT -5
Jmei makes a good point, and to counter the Weei article implying they are foolishly missing an opportunity- This is not Lou Gorman, the last 3 Redsox GMs are quite bright and don't do anything without clear calculation. I wonder if another factor besides seeing how Lester does is seeing how their young pitching does as well over this year before doling out such large sums. Could they possibly be impressed by the early starts by Owens and Delarosa, knowing they have Workman, Webster and Barnes in the tank too and just want to see how they do? Granted the price goes up, but with more information they can still come back in the offseason- or all-star break to Lester.
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Post by tonyc on Jan 9, 2014 20:21:41 GMT -5
Rip,
On the surface it appears Dwight is not, but please read Bill James clear analysis that he IS entitled "an open letter to the hall of fame about Dwight Evans." He makes an excellent case, just as I was delighted when (granted a stonger case) Bert Blyleven made it due to modern analysis, and Jack Morris didn't.
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Post by tonyc on Jan 9, 2014 16:24:28 GMT -5
Good responses Jim and Matt. Jim, in the post I nearly added my delight in seeing both Dwight Evans and Luis Tiant around 125th- a level eclipsed largely by HOFers, and ahead of a number of them. Why Dewey isn't in? He represents the perfect storm of excelling in every underrated criteria, less than the overrated criteria in traditional baseball analysis: He started his career not making the great initial impression and became better late. His greatest strength was in being about the best defensive, not offensive right fielder in our lifetime, save Roberto Clemente. In terms of offense, batting first or second, he excelled in runs, not rbi, and finally, at a time when batting average ruled, not ops, he derived fine stats due to ok ba, but better obp due to walks, and good slugging. Jim, that is a good point also about using lifetime WAR to compare players at the same position, it does seem there are some inherent flaws in there. Matt, great point about it being a counting stat, so that a player continuing to add above marginal stats, who however, compromises great earlier performance with mediocrity will pad his lifetime WAR. This accounts for some of the high WAR numbers of long time players such as Olerud, Tananna, and even my beloved Yaz. For HOF purposes, while I agree that both the brilliant short termers and consistent long-termers have a place, this represents somewhat of a flaw in cross-comparison (an overweighting toward longevity).
Thanks, any other analysis quite welcome here.
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Post by tonyc on Jan 9, 2014 14:17:52 GMT -5
Having been an "old school" stat-head, growing up with Stato-matic leagues in the late '60's it was not until today I read how FIP and WAR are actually calculated, and I looked at the all time WAR list and found some surprises and wanted some feedback as to whether this criteria may have inherent flaws- or my preconceptions do.
Mariano Rivera is 207th, wheras the long but for the most part not brilliant careers of John Olerud and Frank Tannana are 197th and 199th. Given that Hoyt Wilhelm appears at 330 does relief pitching have less of a component toward victory than we preconceive? I've been under the impression- and perhaps one of you has done a study, that when a team finishes with a better record than their plus minus would predict, such as the Yankees in 2013, that may be in part due to a good closer/bullpen.
Another question involves the age-old debate, when voting for HOF of brief brilliance vs. longer solid numbers. Carl Yaz appears number 35, vs. Joe D. at 67, and Dizzy Dean appears way down at 377- do any of you feel this improperly weights the long-term?
Thanks
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Post by tonyc on Dec 26, 2013 17:36:38 GMT -5
Jmie,
I've been a longtime sox follower, and on the one hand while you are correct in that other clubs, such as Texas are more complete than the Yankees, on the other, if they truly begin an unbridled cash orgy, they will quickly rise well above an 89 win level, with a number of arms available next year as well as Tanaka this year. As posted earlier, if that is the case we could easily parallel the '75 Sox, who instead of at the beginning of a farm produced golden age, in both '77 and '78 had .600 teams that were overpowered by Yankee money. More to the point today, I would be much more fearful of a Tanaka coup to the Yankees than anyone, by far, given that todays rules render a wild-card a one game coin toss to enter the playoffs, with an exhausted and non-optimally setup pitching staff.
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Post by tonyc on Dec 22, 2013 13:16:52 GMT -5
Guidas, you could be right about Doubront in the long run, but my guts scream John Tudor, who had a good fastball and changeup and we traded in the 80's about that age, and he became a major star.
Doubront is a unique piece in the sox current set up in that he's young, yet more established than the 4 upcoming youngsters. He's not as seasoned as Peavy, Lacky, and healthier than Bucholtz.
The stuff is good- he cut through those Cards, and some strong Yankee lineups in the last couple of years, and just needs conditioning. No, I'd keep him
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MFY
Dec 22, 2013 12:57:52 GMT -5
Post by tonyc on Dec 22, 2013 12:57:52 GMT -5
Love your Louii photo Fenway, hoping against a Jack Morris HOF election while Tiant remains out. Anyhow, the prediction is short term, with a long-term horizon, that the Yankees have just come to that very conclusion, they otherwise would not even be in on Balfour- Tanaka is the key as to whether to blow past this year or next. An article referenced here (don't have link) at the time of the Ellsbury signing made it clear that they have a unique business model due to the YES network and other connections whereby they will be expected to spend to maintain those great revenues.
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MFY
Dec 22, 2013 10:50:42 GMT -5
Post by tonyc on Dec 22, 2013 10:50:42 GMT -5
In the last week there have been two different articles (don't have links) referred to here which portrayed a negative cycle for the Yankees: older free agent signings, lack of draft picks and prospects, and television revenue enabling long term signings by smaller market teams. Unfortunately I see a tide shift coming this week of enough increased spending to overpower their problems: Tanaka will be posted via a devious plan mentioned here of posting two players, similar to those done in Latin America- or through some Boras means we are not aware of, which will deliver funds under the table to the Rakuten owner. Especially with Texas out, and only LA money in the way he will be a Yankee. In turn, the floodgates of a supposed cap will open to deliver them Grant Balfour, who would love to stick it back to the Orioles in their own division, and could include Stephen Drew, who would either force the range compromised Jeter to play some third or second- or do so himself just this year.
Next year? They will sign Klayton Kershaw, or Max Scherzer..or Lester? In 6 years (gulp)- Bogaerts. Lets enjoy replaying those bearded videos, for I fear a replay of 1977 when the sox had incredible home grown teams playing over .600 ball for consecutive seasons, while the Yankees overpowered them with money... they are the corrupt Roman empire appropriately playing in the most famous arena since the coliseum while paranoid followers of the sox like me pray at the monster/wailing wall!
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Post by tonyc on Nov 5, 2013 20:24:55 GMT -5
I agree with pretty much everyone in terms of what they'll do. I loved Workman's three starts and wish they would keep him as a starter- feel his size, command and composure are indeed "Peavy-like", as Farrell had mentioned. Rubby needs to be given an opportunity for a post Tommy John bump as he has rare stuff, but I agree with Chris that he'll ultimately end up in the pen. Hank I do differ re: Webster, whom I feel due to his stuff and having progressed futher than the other prospects (Renaudo, Barnes) of comparable age, should be the top pitching prospect on soxprospects. His fastball/changeup combo remind me of Wacha- all the rest of the starters have good but not brilliant stuff.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 9, 2013 21:11:23 GMT -5
Good points and memory everyone! I agree with the points about Oconell. Now did he have some bad luck with some of the pitchers he acquired with injury? Namely Ken Tatum, who was great in the two years before Boston, and Lew Krausse, who had a 2.95 the year before, and for that matter Marty Pattin, who was good then poof! Speaking of which I recall around 1971 hearing a Detroit scout mention, to my delight, that Boston had more good minor league arms than anyone! Must have been Moret, Mcglothen, Curtis, Skok, Garmen, Pole, Brett- most of whom were let go, injured etc. Of course that era, bereft of pitch limits saw great burnouts- David Clyde by Texas, Baylor Moore Montreal and many others. I HIGHLY recommend a book on tape called "The Long Ball", by Adelman(sp?)- Actors reenacted the 1975 season in detail, especially with a focus on Boston and Cincinnati, with many behind the scenes details- Johhny Bench's quick courtship that winter, Bernie Carbo's close relationship with Sparky Anderson, Luis Tiant presiding over his family- father from Cuba and others staying with him during the world series.. and countless wonderful details.
One longer term observation about the successful Sox teams, aside from obviously getting better pitching, was getting away from the late 60's/early 70's formula of loading exclusively on Petrocelli/ Tony C types - which was fine at Fenway but didn't fare well on the road. I noticed the 75 team introduced many more lefties- Lynn, Doyle, Carbo, Yaz.. as well as the '86 and probably subsequent winners too.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 6, 2013 22:43:47 GMT -5
Right on, good post! In '86, if I recall correctly Buckner never would have been out there to make the error had he been pinch hit for when facing a tough lefty, Sid Fernandez I think, with the bases loaded with Don Baylor ready on the bench. The reason he didn't: "I wanted the same batters to finish the game and series that started" said the manager! I was very much frustrated with Lou Gorman as well, well before Bagwell..thank goodness they've had three intelligent GMs since.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 6, 2013 19:42:15 GMT -5
Interesting on Yaz and the strike. Two more sox collapses not talked about as much...Going into '74 they had one of their best and deepest pitching staffs before or since, 7 or 8 starter possibilities if you include Moret, Drago, and the great prospect Dick Pole (who shortly had a career ending injury). Then they were ravaged by the most injuries I'd seen, until last year- famously Fisk getting his leg broken by a base runner, and Doug Griffin beaned by Nolan Ryan. Despite leading the league in injuries they led in early September, but it became too much and they had something like a 9 game losing streak simultaneous to both the Yankees and Baltimore winning about 10 in a row... then in terms of stupidity and effect, for an all time manager faux pas, comparable to Little leaving Pedro in 2003- the end of game 7 in 1975 with the score tied they bring in Wiloughby, in an era of shorter bullpens, and he had his good sinker going and being an ex starting pitcher was good for 4 innings of untouchable work in extras. The manager pulls him after 1 to pinch hit Cecil Cooper (who had been I believe 1 for 19) with none on and 2 out. Jim Burton came in and gave up the losing run and that was that.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 6, 2013 15:14:35 GMT -5
Nice share John,
Thanks. Being a lifelong NY sox fan- rare in those days, the only time ever I went to Fenway, staying with some Boston relatives was during the September '72 pennant race, when they had just brought Dewey up as a 20 year old. Note, as per the other post, it's the only time I know of a team finished 1/2 game out- in the Win column!
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Post by tonyc on Oct 6, 2013 13:27:08 GMT -5
John,
I'm too lazy to go to old line scores, but I seem to remember him actually going as long as 6 or 7 that year in relief, and they had a deep pen. Also, they invariably went to him later that game- too late. Of course everyone remembers that one, and Bucky, but the first one, which does not get mentioned, for this post '68 sox fan was when in 1972 there was a brief strike causing an uneven schedule. The sox finished with a 3 game series vs. Detroit who they were 1/2 game ahead of, lose the first game, then in game 2 Yaz hits a sure three bagger, and Aparicio- one of the greatest basestealers ever when younger, trips rounding third and gets doubled off, they lose by one run, and lose the year: Tigers 86-70 Sox 85-70.. my friend and his dad were trying to console me when I was sick in their car!
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Post by tonyc on Oct 6, 2013 12:06:50 GMT -5
Hey John,
Before game 4 of the '78 massacre, I had thought that since they sometimes used their reliever Tom Burgmeir for in excess of 4 inning relief, and he was outstanding, that they should have simply started him instead of bringing up Bobby Sprowl from AA. What do you think?
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Post by tonyc on Oct 6, 2013 12:03:05 GMT -5
Can't ask for any better out of the first 2 games. Now , silence the cow bells and get some rest for the next series. LOL. If they win game 3 at the Trop? I'll ask my son to put the ticket in some kind of frame he keeps several in, that also has some I gave him from the infamous "Yankee massacre" series back in '78 when I was at Fenway for that brutal series.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 6, 2013 11:39:51 GMT -5
Several takeaways from that game: Contrary to my comment, in retrospect I am glad that Drew played instead of Bogaerts, not so much because of his weak fly fenway "triple", albeit after a good struggle vs. a poor Price, but each of those double plays came with a pitcher on the ropes..and several, were difficult and close- game changers.
Secondly, it will be painful to lose Ellsbury, what a spark!, after we make our overpaid shorter term offer. Jackie B. reminds me of circa 1976 pre-bulked up Fred Lynn- the great jump and glide of a less than speedy gold glover, the arm, the gap power, the contact.. and Jackie did adjust better in his later at-bats. J.B.J. seemed to put on muscle and slugging this year, no?
TBS broadcasters so typical (formerly Joe Morgan being one of the worst)- good in game player mechanics observations, not such good longer term player analysis- Koji did not come out of nowhere, he was amazing and consistent, by far their best signing.
Lastly, if indeed Abreu has only slider speed bat speed not useful against even a weakened Price and the bullpen they brought out yesterday.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 5, 2013 13:26:06 GMT -5
A friend of mine who's written for years for Sports Illustrated has said game two tends to be the key game in a series. I think that's quite true here, just as it was against the Reds in '75 (they won game won and were winning game two, but lost it and lost the series on the road). If the sox win, their consistency during the season makes 3 losses in a row unlikely, plus it's unlikely they even face Price a second time. Whereas a loss by the sox takes away their home edge and makes a game 5 in which they face him quite possible. On a different note, I wish Farrell had given Bogaerts an atbat late in the blowout yesterday to get his feet wet for what may be a more critical appearance later in the series. It seems that perhaps he is managing like a pitching coach- I agreed with his roster choices and pitching moves, but a few of the hitting moves, namely this one irritate me.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 27, 2013 11:56:24 GMT -5
Point well taken, not all speedsters get the first step jump to steal. However, I believe Donnie Sadler may have served as a unique hybrid pinchrunner in late innings, then defense sub for ANYONE, given he cold play infield close to Iglesias, and all three outfield positions like Rick Miller (won a gold glove, observant fans thought was better than Fred Lynn defensively).
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Post by tonyc on Sept 24, 2013 15:49:49 GMT -5
Only my second post despite reading sox prospects most of its existence (Sick day today) Great thread guys. Donnie Sadler! Recall hearing he was second in A.L. in speed to only a Texas outfielder. Given he could play everywhere but 1st and C, with matchless range and a cannon arm, I will venture that he may have been the greatest over-all defensive player in Sox history- somewhat akin to one Honus Wagner, who before being signed played every position. With his speed, could he have been kept as a specialty pinch run/defensive player longer? Only now are attitudes shifting.. anyone remember Herb Washington two decades earlier? A Finley brainstorm- he was a track star without any baseball since high school- and stole effectively in his one season. My friend and I jumped out of our seat watching him go to full speed by his second step, and slide into second while the catchers throw was still crossing the mound. I imagine with more experience could have had big impact, but many players rebelled against him as "taking a roster spot." A Finley brainfart?(Forgive the off topic, Editors) via Baseball Laughs- In 1965 the Kansas City Athletics had a power hitting lefthanded squad, such as Don Mincher, and moved the rightfield fences way in. The comissioner disallowed this, so the rebellious Finley instructed his announcer that when balls were hit into this zone to announce "that would have been a homerun." One day the 1965 Twins, with a heart of Oliva, Killebrew, Allison, etc, hit four consecutive homeruns. Then the fifth hitter lined a ball into that zone, prompting the announcement, "that would have been a home run." Those instructions were subsequently removed.
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Post by tonyc on Aug 10, 2013 12:02:22 GMT -5
Hi folks,
Have been actively reading here for 10 years, first post. Very impressed with not only the knowledge of everyone here, but also the courtesy. I now believe it's been Middlebrooks, not Xander whom sox are waiting to bring up first. They would have traded Wil instead of Iglesias if they had lost faith in him. Without Drew next year, if Middlebrooks is not established as an option now they would have an issue. Also, the aforementioned service time and 40 man roster issues favor Wil. I do believe Zander has slightly surpassed Wil already with the bat, however it's Middlebrooks who needs a bit more time, or is only now ready, hence the delay. My prediction- Middlebrooks is brought up very soon, Zander when rosters expand. Thoughts?
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