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8/13-8/15 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 14, 2013 23:21:38 GMT -5
Hi Bluechip,
I get what you are saying and it's a lot of what is incorrect (to me) about all these new stats and people who stat chase everything and ignore using their own eyes to value players and how important they are to a team.
We can use 1 if u want (stat). K rate. Salty is going to the plate, then heading straight back to the dugout, after K'ing roughly 33% of the time. No chance for the opposition to make an error, no sacrifice fly.. No nothing. That is beyond bad. His defense is below average and his arm (and accuracy) is varitek like toward the end of his career.
My point was that Victorino is an outstanding fielder, runner and gets on base about the same as he has since the end of his "glory days" ended. He at least puts the ball in play. He's not a "take 3 hacks and grab some pine" guy like the 1st 3 mentioned several posts earlier which can kill the momentum in any rally.
Every team needs spark plugs at the top. Victorino has been the complimentary one to Ells this season and next year probably will be "the guy" if his body holds up.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2013 23:49:34 GMT -5
There are just a lot of ideas in that post that the sabermetrically-inclined among us generally disagree with. The "eye test", the idea that strikeouts are so much worse than any other out (or that strikeout rate would be the one stat you look at when comparing players), needing speed at the top of your order. And you're the one who started this discussion by pointing to the so-called "black hole" at the bottom of the order, so I don't see what defense has to do with anything. I agree that Victorino is a much better player than Saltalamacchia, but it's pretty clear that Salty has been the better hitter this season.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 15, 2013 0:03:17 GMT -5
Hi We can use 1 if u want (stat). K rate. Salty is going to the plate, then heading straight back to the dugout, after K'ing roughly 33% of the time. No chance for the opposition to make an error, no sacrifice fly.. No nothing. That is beyond bad. His defense is below average and his arm (and accuracy) is varitek like toward the end of his career. The whole idea of giving the opposition a chance to make an error is really overblown. The average MLB team thus year has made 68 errors against 3,193 putouts. Which means that roughly 98 times out of a hundred the opposition is making the play. Weighing against that and moving along runners you have double plays. And a double play is pretty much the worst outcome for a batter. Not that Victorino does that particularly often. My point is rather that a strikeout is not so terribly worse than any other out. The problem with strikeouts is that in order to be productive with a high k rate, and Salty HAS been productive with a high k rate, the batter needs a higher percentage of the balls he puts in play to go for hits. So a high k rate , rather than being indicative of how valuable a batter's past performance has been, usually indicates that his future will not be as valuable. So far Salty has a good BABIP, and thus has been valuable. I would not count on him being as valuable going forward.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 15, 2013 0:06:14 GMT -5
I should add. I like Victorino a ton. I love his defense. He has been about as good as I expected at the plate which is solid. He has speed on the bases, which has value.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 15, 2013 0:12:05 GMT -5
Hey JMEI,
Just included him in that black hole at the bottom, he's probably the best, or most consistent at least sandwiched inbetween Napoli and WMB.
Had the team another guy.. Carp-Gomes platoon to perhaps hit in one of those slots.. A Bogaerts who was *both* on the roster and playing well? It wouldn't be too bad of course to have such weakness at the bottom.
This team, as well as just about every Red Sox team in my memory has been brutal about leaving men on base. They just needed strong lineups, or hitters strewn throughout the slots 1-9 to drive 'em in. They were never like Orioles teams of days gone by.. Oakland teams that could rely on a small handful of guys to get a couple of clutch hits when it counted. Why? Dunno. '88 Red Sox under Joe Morgan was the sole team that came the closest to breaking that mold.. Maybe was because it was filled with young kids who didn't know pressure and ignored all that curse/media rubbish everyone was spouting at them.
Anyway.. Team needs either people that can produce, or sit if they can't offer something else to the team such as glittering defense.
Napoli isn't offering the team much of anything and I really question Salty. Tek had those same pitchers (some of them) under some kind of spell that they couldn't throw to anyone else also. That was proven false. It's time for them to learn.
Just a difference of opinion guys. I learned to watch the game from the stands, watching it when there were none of these stats and still use very few of them in forming opinions on players.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 15, 2013 0:50:05 GMT -5
Time to bring up Xander , he is gonna be here and I have no problem if Drew sticks around but it's time. It will make our team stronger and complete. I want the best and most complete team going into the stretch run here. I believe bringing up Xander will offset the struggles were getting from Napoli also .
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 15, 2013 0:51:04 GMT -5
Time to bring up Xander , he is gonna be here and I have no problem if Drew sticks around but it's time. It will make our team stronger and complete. I want the best and most complete team going into the stretch run here. I believe bringing up Xander will offset the struggles were getting from Napoli also . WMB is hitting well and drew is hitting well and you want to bench one of them?
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 15, 2013 4:48:33 GMT -5
So, uh, why didn't Farrell just bring in Uehara after Davis doubled in the 10th?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 15, 2013 7:41:58 GMT -5
Time to bring up Xander , he is gonna be here and I have no problem if Drew sticks around but it's time. It will make our team stronger and complete. I want the best and most complete team going into the stretch run here. I believe bringing up Xander will offset the struggles were getting from Napoli also . WE KNOW.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 15, 2013 8:15:16 GMT -5
Time to bring up Xander , he is gonna be here and I have no problem if Drew sticks around but it's time. It will make our team stronger and complete. I want the best and most complete team going into the stretch run here. I believe bringing up Xander will offset the struggles were getting from Napoli also . WMB is hitting well and drew is hitting well and you want to bench one of them? Not one of them just Drew. Just friggin Drew. You can keep him okay . What do you see from your television Cal Ripken?
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 15, 2013 8:16:24 GMT -5
Time to bring up Xander , he is gonna be here and I have no problem if Drew sticks around but it's time. It will make our team stronger and complete. I want the best and most complete team going into the stretch run here. I believe bringing up Xander will offset the struggles were getting from Napoli also . WE KNOW. Just so you know.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 15, 2013 9:23:34 GMT -5
WMB is hitting well and drew is hitting well and you want to bench one of them? Not one of them just Drew. Just friggin Drew. You can keep him okay . What do you see from your television Cal Ripken? Drew's second half numbers: .289/.388/.482/.870. .381 wOBA, 138 wRC+. Above average defense year-long.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 15, 2013 9:43:22 GMT -5
Only Jonny Gomes and Ortiz have been better at the plate in the second half.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 15, 2013 9:46:54 GMT -5
Not one of them just Drew. Just friggin Drew. You can keep him okay . What do you see from your television Cal Ripken? Drew's second half numbers: .289/.388/.482/.870. .381 wOBA, 138 wRC+. Above average defense year-long. So yeah, pretty much Cal Ripken. It's not just the second half, either. Drew is third among AL shortstops w/ 300 PAs in wOBA, at .333. The two ahead of him, Jhonny Peralta and Jed Lowrie, can't play defense. A fair argument could be made that Drew is the very best shortstop in the American League.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 15, 2013 9:53:26 GMT -5
Please never take the Jed Lowrie's name in vain again.
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Post by jmei on Aug 15, 2013 10:40:13 GMT -5
This team, as well as just about every Red Sox team in my memory has been brutal about leaving men on base. They just needed strong lineups, or hitters strewn throughout the slots 1-9 to drive 'em in. They were never like Orioles teams of days gone by.. Oakland teams that could rely on a small handful of guys to get a couple of clutch hits when it counted. Why? Dunno. Per B/R, the 2013 Boston Red Sox hit 10% better than the rest of the league with runners in scoring position and 15% better than the rest of the league with runners on base.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 15, 2013 10:55:35 GMT -5
Drew's second half numbers: .289/.388/.482/.870. .381 wOBA, 138 wRC+. Above average defense year-long. So yeah, pretty much Cal Ripken. It's not just the second half, either. Drew is third among AL shortstops w/ 300 PAs in wOBA, at .333. The two ahead of him, Jhonny Peralta and Jed Lowrie, can't play defense. A fair argument could be made that Drew is the very best shortstop in the American League. How about hitting against Left-Handers? How is he doing?
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 15, 2013 11:01:38 GMT -5
Just for the hell of it. The UFC is in Boston and there fighting Saturday but today at 1pm there is a preflight press conference on the web whoever is a fan will know where to go. I only say this because FOX is launching FOX sports 1 on the speed channel. Which is also starting on the 17th.
This is going to compete with ESPN and its good for us. One more thing I don't know when the UFC is coming back because the politicians as usual are screwing things up behind the scenes . Thank you.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 15, 2013 11:10:06 GMT -5
So yeah, pretty much Cal Ripken. It's not just the second half, either. Drew is third among AL shortstops w/ 300 PAs in wOBA, at .333. The two ahead of him, Jhonny Peralta and Jed Lowrie, can't play defense. A fair argument could be made that Drew is the very best shortstop in the American League. How about hitting against Left-Handers? How is he doing? Terribly (.598 OPS). I advocated for a Drew/Iglesias platoon before the trade, with Iggy also picking up some starts at third against right handers. With Brock Holt as the only other shortstop on the roster these days, and being left handed as well, Drew kind of has to start most of the games against lefties. If Bogaerts were to come up, it'd certainly make sense for him to grab all those starts at short vs. LHP's, but I wouldn't say Bogaerts needs to come up simply because Drew, who overall is posting quality numbers, stinks against the minority-handedness pitchers. Hopefully in September, when the rosters expand and we see Bogaerts come up, this won't be an issue. I certainly don't think it's a big enough issue to bench Drew for the rest of August, as you seem to be implying is the teams best course of action.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 15, 2013 11:13:03 GMT -5
This team, as well as just about every Red Sox team in my memory has been brutal about leaving men on base. They just needed strong lineups, or hitters strewn throughout the slots 1-9 to drive 'em in. They were never like Orioles teams of days gone by.. Oakland teams that could rely on a small handful of guys to get a couple of clutch hits when it counted. Why? Dunno. Per B/R, the 2013 Boston Red Sox hit 10% better than the rest of the league with runners in scoring position and 15% better than the rest of the league with runners on base. We are turning this into a info World back n forth it seems :-) Boston also has 6 PH HR (4 Gomes) and.. Is it 9 walk offs now? There are times the team does do well, just depends on which part of the order is up, or possibly Gomes is P/hitting. Sox lineup is like a tale of 2 halves and not pre all star break and after it, but 1st 5-6 hitters and "the rest".
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 15, 2013 11:19:57 GMT -5
How about hitting against Left-Handers? How is he doing? Terribly (.598 OPS). I advocated for a Drew/Iglesias platoon before the trade, with Iggy also picking up some starts at third against right handers. With Brock Holt as the only other shortstop on the roster these days, and being left handed as well, Drew kind of has to start most of the games against lefties. If Bogaerts were to come up, it'd certainly make sense for him to grab all those starts at short vs. LHP's, but I wouldn't say Bogaerts needs to come up simply because Drew, who overall is posting quality numbers, stinks against the minority-handedness pitchers. Hopefully in September, when the rosters expand and we see Bogaerts come up, this won't be an issue. I certainly don't think it's a big enough issue to bench Drew for the rest of August, as you seem to be implying is the teams best course of action. Matt every game counts . You don't think so? We're not out of the woods . It's sickening all the hard work and these guys are breathing down our necks. We lost a couple of games against lefties and they were not blow outs. Okay I said my piece and you said yours.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 15, 2013 11:40:07 GMT -5
Terribly (.598 OPS). I advocated for a Drew/Iglesias platoon before the trade, with Iggy also picking up some starts at third against right handers. With Brock Holt as the only other shortstop on the roster these days, and being left handed as well, Drew kind of has to start most of the games against lefties. If Bogaerts were to come up, it'd certainly make sense for him to grab all those starts at short vs. LHP's, but I wouldn't say Bogaerts needs to come up simply because Drew, who overall is posting quality numbers, stinks against the minority-handedness pitchers. Hopefully in September, when the rosters expand and we see Bogaerts come up, this won't be an issue. I certainly don't think it's a big enough issue to bench Drew for the rest of August, as you seem to be implying is the teams best course of action. Matt every game counts . You don't think so? We're not out of the woods . It's sickening all the hard work and these guys are breathing down our necks. We lost a couple of games against lefties and they were not blow outs. Okay I said my piece and you said yours. I think we're having sort of a disconnect here. Of course I believe every game counts, and it's going to be a battle to the end. I don't know if I would use the word "sickening" to describe the intensity/effort/standings situations, though. Do you mean it's sickening that our team tries hard, and then Farrell plays Drew against a left hander, thus disrespecting the hard work and drive that the team is exemplifying? There are tons of players around the league with everyday roles who have a dramatic platoon split. You can't really afford to have platoon situations, such as ours in left field (and the availability of one at first, although we've yet to use it), at more than a position or two. If we had a backup shortstop who happened to be right-handed and hit lefties at a decent clip, then that would help out our flexibility and productivity. Here's my point: We have a ~top 3 shortstop in the league, based on his overall numbers this season. His offense and defense have both been a plus for the season. We should bench/remove that player from the team because, for the next 15 days, he is going to start against maybe 4-6 lefties and struggle against them? Remember, if you bench him for Bogaerts before September rolls around, we have no backup second baseman. Our only 2B/3B/SS flexibility is 3 guys who play only one position, plus XB who can play SS and 3B. You force Holt off the roster, since Nava, Gomes and Carp aren't going anywhere. It doesn't make sense to me. Honestly, I'm surprised you're this down on Drew while giving Middlebrooks a pass. Will has been OK since returning, but if you're so concerned about putting the best team on the field and grabbing every win, I truly believe we're best off with Drew starting against all right-handers at shortstop, and essentially being in a platoon with Middlebrooks, with Xander rotating positions and letting WMB take some days at third against righties here and there. I just don't think it'd be the end of the world to wait until September for such a situation.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 15, 2013 12:20:36 GMT -5
The roster situation is a good point in holding where we are now.
Someone mentioned in the game threads about being disappointed that the Sox haven't taken full advantage of TB's recent downturn to put more distance between us and them. I look at it sort of the other way: The Sox are in their most difficult stretch of the season schedule-wise with all these road games, have struggled through about half of it, and haven't lost any ground. They are hanging on, though I get the feeling that their season-long momentum may be losing steam. But as long as they are still in good position re the Division and the playoffs there is no great pressure to bring up Xander until Sept. 1 at least. Whether the Sox can stay in this position until the end of the month is uncertain, but unless/until the team gets in a more precarious situation standings-wise, Xander will stay put.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 15, 2013 14:05:06 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 2m #RedSox: Ellsbury CF, Victorino RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Gomes LF, Drew SS, Lavarnway C, Nava 1B, Middlebrooks 3B + Peavy
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Post by okin15 on Aug 15, 2013 15:22:39 GMT -5
There are just a lot of ideas in that post that the sabermetrically-inclined among us generally disagree with. the idea that strikeouts are so much worse than any other out (or that strikeout rate would be the one stat you look at when comparing players) I'm sabr inclined and I disagree about k-rate. It has nothing to do with allowing the opposition to make an error. It's that other outs come from a pool of batted balls, which are 30% or so likely to be hits, while k's don't even give the ball a chance to bloop in. K-rate is one of the better measurable stats to use if you were going to pick one. Though there are certainly better aggregate stats and rates. Still, k-rate normalizes pretty quickly year to year (though not for younger players who are improving their approach now they're in pro ball).
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