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Post by Jonathan Singer on Aug 28, 2013 20:28:59 GMT -5
9/2 Red Sox (RHP John Lackey 8-11 3.19) vs. Tigers (RHP Doug Fister 11-7 3.81) 1:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEI9/3 Red Sox (LHP Jon Lester 12-8 3.99) vs. Tigers (RHP Max Scherzer 19-1 2.90) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/MLBN/WEEI9/4 Red Sox (RHP Ryan Dempster 7-9 4.75) vs. Tigers (RHP Rick Porcello 11-7 4.44) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/ESPN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by jdb on Sept 2, 2013 9:49:01 GMT -5
Can't argue with our luck not facing the opposing teams top pitchers. Kershaw, Grienkie, Sale now Verlander and Sanchez.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 2, 2013 9:55:35 GMT -5
True, but we are getting Scherzer, who is a Cy candidate, so "top pitcher" is a little skewed in this case.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2013 9:59:33 GMT -5
Don't let anyone point at the W/L records of the Braves, Dodgers, and Cardinals and tell you that these haven't been the two best teams in baseball.
True SOS: +1.5 for Bos and Det, 0.0 for StL, -1.2 for LAD, -1.7 for Atl.
I rank the teams not just by adjusting for SOS, but by projecting the rest of the season counting 50% of each team's Win Efficiency (what BP would call the difference between second order win % and raw win %) as predictive. You get the following projected true (SOS-adjusted) wins:
98.1 Bos 97.2 Det 96.8 Atl 94.5 LAD 94.3 StL 93.7 Pit 93.5 Oak* 93.4 Tex* 92.3 TB 90.7 Cin
88.9 Bal 88.6 Cle 88.1 NYY
Right now Oakland has an 0.9 SOS handicap compared to Texas. They'll more than make that up the rest of the way (1.1 edge), so this division is indeed in a virtual tie, and should be decided fairly.
The Cardinal's schedule is just 0.3 - 0.4 games easier than the Pirates or Reds, so that race should also be decided fairly.
It's the AL second wild card that might end up unjust. SOS total / remaining:
Bal: 3.1 / 0.8 NYY: 3.0 / 0.2 TB: 2.4 / 0.6 Cle: 1.3 / -1.0
That gives the Indians a significant edge.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 2, 2013 10:03:14 GMT -5
We did also face Ryu in LA, while not as good as Kershaw....is pretty damn good. Also our starters have been outstanding lately. We arguably could have the same record if we faced those pitchers
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,834
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Post by wcp3 on Sept 2, 2013 10:07:58 GMT -5
Sweep or bust.
Also, it's beyond me how Scherzer is 19-1. Good pitcher for sure, but I've never been overly impressed with him.
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Post by semperfisox on Sept 2, 2013 10:42:09 GMT -5
Ellsbury CF Victorino RF Pedroia 2B Ortiz DH Nava LF Napoli 1B Saltalamacchia C Drew SS, Middlebrooks 3B
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 2, 2013 10:57:09 GMT -5
No Cabrera today either.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 2, 2013 11:08:19 GMT -5
He is banged up right now. He should be resting.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 2, 2013 11:26:13 GMT -5
Sweep or bust. Also, it's beyond me how Scherzer is 19-1. Good pitcher for sure, but I've never been overly impressed with him. Ditto for Tillman, who the Sox recently faced and could be called the Orioles' best pitcher. Also his 3.94 xFIP puts him just below Verlander and Shields in terms of AL starters.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 2, 2013 11:35:02 GMT -5
Ellsbury CF Victorino RF Pedroia 2B Let's give some credit to those three guys for being on the field ... Victorino seems the worst of the three, but Ellsbury and Pedroia are both dealing with bad thumbs. You can see Pedroia shake his left hand whenever he dives for a ball. He tries to cover it up by adjusting his batting glove. Also, totally fine with me that the Indians have a significant advantage in SOS. I'd be very happy if Tito's Indians beat out the AL East triplets.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 2, 2013 13:10:39 GMT -5
F-ing double plays after twice getting 2 men on with no outs. F-ing, I say.
Not to mention Fister is somewhat off today (getting squeezed a bit too, but so is Lackey).
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,834
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Post by wcp3 on Sept 2, 2013 13:12:02 GMT -5
I've never seen anyone quite like Iglesias who can make accurate throws from all types of angles. It's incredible.
Also, probably just a coincidence, but Drew's been getting no respect from the umps lately. Every borderline pitch (and some not so borderline pitches) seems to go against him.
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Post by jmei on Sept 2, 2013 13:12:23 GMT -5
Fister has been wild but double plays are killing us. You see why Detroit wanted to upgrade infield defense. That Iglesias-Infante combo is pretty slick.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,834
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Post by wcp3 on Sept 2, 2013 13:17:32 GMT -5
Oh how I miss Jose.
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Post by jchang on Sept 2, 2013 13:22:21 GMT -5
Does sabermetrics really say sac bunt with runners on 1b and 2b is bad?
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Post by jmei on Sept 2, 2013 13:25:26 GMT -5
Does sabermetrics really say sac bunt with runners on 1b and 2b is bad? Depends on who the hitter is, who the next hitter is, who the pitcher is, and the game situation. But in general, yes.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 2, 2013 13:27:24 GMT -5
Lackey is pitching, off course the offense turns into a punking.
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 2, 2013 13:56:51 GMT -5
BABIP that Iglesias! For real though, it's so awesome watching him again. All the debates on this board regard Iglesias' value and whether the trade was worth it, but part of the reason I was hesitant to let him go related to the entertainment factor. Watching him play SS made me look forward to games so much. I hope for all the best from him in Detroit.
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Post by jmei on Sept 2, 2013 14:03:15 GMT -5
Lackey is pitching, off course the offense turns into a punking. Seriously, do his teammates hate him or something? How else can you explain his lack of run support.
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 2, 2013 14:05:35 GMT -5
Lackey is pitching, off course the offense turns into a punking. Seriously, do his teammates hate him or something? How else can you explain his lack of run support. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I recall Wakefield in '09 or '10 getting similar crap support from the lineup. But I can't imagine it being worse than what Lackey deals with. 74th out of 88 eligible starters in run support per game? Coming from the team that ranks top 3 in almost every AL offensive category, that's awful.
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Post by jmei on Sept 2, 2013 14:14:02 GMT -5
Iglesias, holy ****, are you serious?
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Post by Guidas on Sept 2, 2013 14:15:02 GMT -5
That was ridiculous.
And that ump was out of position to make that call.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 2, 2013 14:15:48 GMT -5
Karma...is....a.....beach.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 2, 2013 14:23:46 GMT -5
It's official - Lackey can't catch a break. Should've been up 2-0 or 3-0 going into this inning. Now about to be down 2-0 and prob take a loss despite out-pitching Fister and being out BBIP'd by him. Lovely.
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