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9/13-9/15 Red Sox vs. Yankees Series
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 14, 2013 15:43:21 GMT -5
Got a run home but Middlebrooks has that lost look at the plate again. Now 0 for his last 14, I think. Yep. He's back to chasing the 1st off speed low and outside, then the next hard fb low and away. Looks very familiar.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 14, 2013 16:20:14 GMT -5
If we go 9-3 in the last games we will win 100 games. I'm down with it, get it done.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 14, 2013 16:25:27 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 14, 2013 16:38:41 GMT -5
We're 10-3 so far this month. So we just got to continue that pace. No more division leading teams or even 2nd place teams left on the schedule.
The Yankees look just about done. The Sox have played a huge role in what could be shutting the door on their season.
These Oriole games coming up could be tough with them fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot and guys like Dempster and Doubront probably getting some starts.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 14, 2013 16:41:54 GMT -5
The Red Sox need to ride out this cold streak and hope WMB turns it around come playoff time, but they should at least make a point of getting XB more at bats in case he doesn't. There is no harm in getting both Xander and MWB atbats. Ortiz could use a little rest, so between DH, third, and SS, the team should be able to give them playing time.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 14, 2013 18:23:39 GMT -5
I'm probably one of the biggest skeptics on here still with WMB. I love watching the guy hit when he's hot, but when he's cold, there's no one worse. He goes up there hacking way too much without any real plan at the plate. As soon as he gets behind in a count, I really worry about his ability to draw out a few more pitches and put the ball in play. Sometimes when he's trying to be patient, he appears as if he's straight up guessing. Salty and Nap can be tough when they're cold as well, but at least they amend their hacks with the ability to take pitches. The book is still open on what Middlebrooks can be, but an incredibly streaky guy who ends up around .230-.260 with a 1/4 BB/K and 25 bombs over a full season and solid-average defense seems about right to me. I hope he turns out better than that though, and it's certainly possible he will. But am I wrong in saying that, to put the most consistent team on the field, Drew should play against every right-hander with Xander's opportunities coming via spelling WMB? Both this season and last, WMB has a decently pronounced platoon split, including pure hitting and discipline.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 15, 2013 8:27:36 GMT -5
Buster Olney tweeted an interesting factoid yesterday ... he ranked the top and bottom teams in MLB by total number of pitches seen. At the very bottom was Milwaukee, at 20,392 pitches. Second place was held by Minnesota, with 22,620, which makes the average difference of the teams from #2-30 79 pitches or so. As you can guess, the first place team was the Sox, but quick guess on how big their lead? Big lead at 200-300?
The Sox have seen 23,691, more than a THOUSAND more than the second place team. The difference between #1 and #2 is close to 50% the difference between #2 and #30. That's pretty amazing. Here are the numbers he gave:
Total pitches seen in 2013: 1. BOS 23,691 2. MIN 22,620 3. OAK 22,190. 4. CLE 22,149 ...28. CWS 20,699 29. Marlins 20,416 30. MILW 20,392
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 15, 2013 9:01:30 GMT -5
Buster Olney tweeted an interesting factoid yesterday ... he ranked the top and bottom teams in MLB by total number of pitches seen. At the very bottom was Milwaukee, at 20,392 pitches. Second place was held by Minnesota, with 22,620, which makes the average difference of the teams from #2-30 79 pitches or so. As you can guess, the first place team was the Sox, but quick guess on how big their lead? Big lead at 200-300? The Sox have seen 23,691, more than a THOUSAND more than the second place team. The difference between #1 and #2 is close to 50% the difference between #2 and #30. That's pretty amazing. Here are the numbers he gave: Total pitches seen in 2013: 1. BOS 23,691 2. MIN 22,620 3. OAK 22,190. 4. CLE 22,149 ...28. CWS 20,699 29. Marlins 20,416 30. MILW 20,392 Ted Williams approach to hitting being followed by the organization that he played for. Still works.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 15, 2013 10:58:41 GMT -5
Now 0 for his last 14, I think. Yep. He's back to chasing the 1st off speed low and outside, then the next hard fb low and away. Looks very familiar. Middlebrooks is pressing and trying to force things instead of picking out good pitches to hit.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 15, 2013 11:26:53 GMT -5
Regarding pitches seen, Napoli is a big part of that right. The guy has double secret, hidden metrics which show him to be a more valuable player than expected. Especially for this team. There is to a degree a multiplier effect when the entire team sees a lot of pitches, getting into the soft underbelly of the lesser quality long relief guys early. When you look at the conventional numbers it is tough to see this team as being so dominant offensively. They do it with smoke and mirrors and the wizard of OZ appears to be Cherington.
They give homage to the obp gods with every AB and absolutely grind out every pitch.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Sept 15, 2013 11:34:05 GMT -5
I actually thought Middlebrooks had some good at bats yesterday. He laid off some close pitches, chased some borderline pitches.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 15, 2013 11:36:41 GMT -5
Yep. He's back to chasing the 1st off speed low and outside, then the next hard fb low and away. Looks very familiar. Middlebrooks is pressing and trying to force things instead of picking out good pitches to hit. I think you've hit on it, at least that's what I see in his at-bats. The hope is that he finds his way back to the approach from just a few weeks ago.
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Post by jmei on Sept 15, 2013 12:06:27 GMT -5
When you look at the conventional numbers it is tough to see this team as being so dominant offensively. They do it with smoke and mirrors and the wizard of OZ appears to be Cherington. Not really. When pretty much every player on your team is hitting at at least a league-average level, you're basically guaranteed an elite offense. Avoiding holes in the lineup is just as important, if not more so, than having "middle-of-the-order" hitters hitting 3-4.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 15, 2013 12:26:00 GMT -5
I agree that overall team OBP is huge and the underlying principle of this team's success ( if that is effectively what you are saying, although it is more than that of course). It is to a degree just simple statistics but it might seem like smoke and mirrors to a lot of people when compared to the lineups of Baltimore and Detroit, where the mega boppers put up huge numbers. To me this is a logical extension of moneyball. A more advanced look at the impact of wearing down the other team's pitchers by a concerted effort through the entire lineup to see lots of pitches. This approach works great unless you are facing guys like Cliff Lee who are going to throw strikes anyway.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 15, 2013 12:34:25 GMT -5
The proof is in the number, right? More runs scored than any other team in the majors. They've scored 182 more than the Dodgers. I know there's a DH in the AL, but that's just absurd.
That isn't smoke and mirrors at all unless you think those can be manufactured out of whole cloth. When this season started out, a few posters pointed to the fact that guys like Drew, Napoli, and Victorino had been above-average players in the past. Whether they would be for this team was the open question. That one's been answered. For all the criticisms of the first two, Mike Napoli is third in WAR in the AL, Drew sixth even though he's missed quite a few games, and his temp replacement put up 1.5 in his time with the Sox. Ellsbury is second in CF only to Mike Trout. Nava is second only to Alex Gordon in LF!
It goes on and on. If you add Nava's, Gomes' and Carp's wins above replacement, that's over 4.5. Victorino by himself is at 5.8. That's before we touch on Pedroia, Ortiz, or even Saltalamacchia who's sixth among catchers.
Cherrington did no magic. All he did was put a decent group of players together and gamble that there would be enough good performances to put them at the top of a very tough division. He won that bet many times over.
Add: This is not about big boppers, whatever that is. Davis is obviously having a career year. Jones is a great player but he's also a free swinger and doesn't bring nearly the OBP to the table that he could. Hardy and Machado have been very good, but there are big holes at LF, 2B, and, because Markakis has been injured, in RF. Even Wieters, with his 21 HRs, hasn't brought near the value that Saltlamacchia has. The real killer has been the pitching. Tillman has done yeomen's work. That's it for the Baltimore starting rotation.
It's about the team. It has to be. The Sox have a better team at more roster positions than their Division rivals. That's why they've got 91 wins so far.
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Post by jmei on Sept 15, 2013 12:34:50 GMT -5
It's not just OBP-- if you sort the leaderboard I posted earlier by ISO, you'll notice that the only players hitting for below-average power (as measured by isolated slugging, which this year is .147 for non-pitchers) are Nava (just barely), Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Iglesias. The starting catcher is slugging .454 and the starting shortstop is slugging .436, with both also possessing above-average OBPs-- that's pretty impressive.
It's a testament to the power of depth as opposed to star power. There's more than one way to build an elite offense, and for a team like the Red Sox that has the ability to sign above-average veterans pretty much at will but which is adverse to long, expensive contracts, it might be a model we continue to see going forward.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 15, 2013 12:52:10 GMT -5
Might be tough for even those types this off season. Middle tier, or veteran types are in short supply that are not trending seriously downward.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 15, 2013 12:58:13 GMT -5
Might be tough for even those types this off season. Middle tier, or veteran types are in short supply that are not trending seriously downward. ...which only makes 3 or 4 qualifying offers the Sox will post, for some combination of Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli, and/or Saltalamacchia, worth even more. The contours of the business model that jmei mentions above have become very clear.
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Post by jmei on Sept 15, 2013 13:08:27 GMT -5
Well, Napoli, Victorino, and Drew were all "trending downward" when Cherington signed them. It's a matter of recognizing when a player can bounce back from a down year. For instance, I think someone like Michael Morse could be a very productive signing. There are also higher profile guys like Brian McCann, Nelson Cruz, and Curtis Granderson that I think will come at a relative bargain and are locks to provide good value.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 15, 2013 13:59:39 GMT -5
I whole heartedly agree on Morse and as have posted here numerous times.. Been calling on Boston to look at him hard over the winter.
The people was thinking of as trending downward hard? JJ, Buck, Suzuki, mark Reynolds. Just guys not of caliber that was available last year even IMO.
For instance, I see Carlos Beltran getting more this time around, even 2y older than the last time due to the lack of OF talent other than like Ells and Choo as premier guys available, or if Pence doesn't agree to an extension beforehand.
Lots of variables of course.. NYY and grandy being offered a QO, Boston and Salty/Drew. Lack of talent in this class, other than Ells, Cano and possibly Pence is going to jack up the price for some people with terrible splits, like David Dejesus and Raja Davis.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 15, 2013 14:15:39 GMT -5
I'm actually pretty fine with what we have. I think one area we could really improve on though is another elite bullpen arm.
I wouldn't want to sign Salty or Napoli to long term deals. QOs might make sense there.
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Post by semperfisox on Sept 15, 2013 16:20:28 GMT -5
Pedroia 2B Nava RF Ortiz DH Carp LF Napoli 1B Saltalamacchia C Drew SS Bogaerts 3B Bradley Jr. CF
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 15, 2013 16:25:07 GMT -5
Rays had a 4-2 lead in the top of the 8th with the bases full and 1 out, didn't score. Joel Peralta got the first two guys in the bottom of the 8th, gave up a Ryan Doumit HR, 1B, BB, and Josmil Pinto HR. After blowing 90.8% and 90.2%, they go to the top of the 9th trailing 6-4, with an 8.0% Win Probability.
And it's over. O's won, Royals lost, Rangers trail, and the Indians are in a 3:15+ rain delay.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 15, 2013 17:36:07 GMT -5
Magic number is down to 5 to win the AL East. It's always cool when you clinch it at home. The thing that I'm more interested in is the top seed. Would be nice to avoid Detroit in the ALDS. Right now we're 2 1/2 games ahead of Oakland headed to tonight. They are done with playoff teams. But, the Angels are starting to play better.
Oak sked; 3 vs LAA, 4 vs Minny, 3 at LAA and 3 at Seattle.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 15, 2013 18:54:36 GMT -5
I didn't mean to imply it was magic. I was trying to communicate that the sum was greater than the individual parts and that it wasn't easily represented just by the conventional numbers most people look at. The lineup doesn't look as impressive as maybe a Detroit's or a Baltimore's upon a quick look but when you look behind the curtain ( under the hood so to speak ) the talent is there. The performance is obviously real and quantifiable. It is more subtle. Even down to HBP statistics and such. Steal percentage. Overall # of scoring opportunities created. It is an extension of moneyball in many ways. Taking it to another level, right down to the number of pitches seen. To a lot of observers it probably looks like magic.
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