10/5 Red Sox vs, Rays ALDS Game 2 Thread

How good is David Price right now? How much of his season is relevant?

Clearly the 5.24 ERA he put up before he went on the DL in mid-May is meaningless. He has a 2.53 ERA in 18 starts since returning on July 2.

But that breaks down into 3 chunks:

1.40 ERA in 8 starts, July 2 to August 9
4.78 ERA in 5 starts, August 14 to September 5
2.55 ERA in 5 starts, September 10 to 30.

The easy conclusion is that he's still a 2.53 or 2.55 guy. But I don't think that's right.

Let's break down the three periods:

K% BB% HRC BABIP XBH% GB% LD% xBP
.192 .009 .033 .220 .179 .454 .180 .261
.210 .043 .010 .356 .278 .422 .277 .309
.216 .037 .010 .303 .300 .490 .300 .335
HRC is HR per contact, XBH% is (2B + 3B) / hits in play, and xBP is his expected BABIP based on his GB, LD, PU, OF-FB breakdown if he had league-average BABIP on each.

There's no statistically significant difference between his last 5 starts and the previous 5 at all, in terms of results. The three true outcome rates are almost identical. The increase in GB% has a 33% chance of being random. The decline in BABIP has a 42% chance.

Notice I said "in terms of results." Because there is a statistically significant difference: his swinging strike percentage has gone down from .097 to .061, which has a 2.5% chance of being random. That could be related to a real increase in GB%, but his LD% has also gone up, so it's hard to explain the decline in BABIP (which is completely responsible for the big drop in ERA) on some kind of successful pitch-to-contact strategy.

So let's combine the last two lines and compare his 8 brilliant starts to his last 10:

K% BB% HRC BABIP XBH% GB% LD% xBP
.192 .009 .033 .220 .179 .454 .180 .261
.213 .040 .010 .330 .288 .455 .287 .322
The K% increase has a 56% chance of being random. Chi-square isn't strictly accurate for raw values of less than 5, and he only walked 2 guys in those 10 starts, but that's clearly a significant increase (which is what chi-square says). The LD% increase has a 1.3% chance of being random, and the BABIP increase has a 1.8%. The increase in XBH%, though not statistically significant (21% chance of being random), is of course consistent with the increase in LD% and BABIP.

So the David Price we're facing has a 3.61 ERA and .263 / .294 / .363 allowed in his last 10 starts. That line probably includes 2 unlucky hits, but he's probably had good luck on homers.

That's a good pitcher, but it's nothing special. In fact, it's a pretty even matchup with Lackey (3.52 ERA, .247 / .290 / .413).

It takes nuts to play the game, and a different mindset. May have been his way of keeping his alignment, or of prepping for today. I don't think its an accident that TB found a different gear after he showed up, and it's easy to predict that KC will be casting a rueful eye his way long after Shields has left the scene.

To get the thread back to Sox/Rays, you know the guy I feel a tiny bit bad for?? Nava. By all accounts he was one of the best players in the league this past season, but he will probably be on the bench today in deference to Gomes because of Gomes' penchant for hitting LH. It isn't as though Nava has a limitless future ahead of him, and every chance he misses to contribute to team success is one he isn't going to get back. It would be nice for a feel-good story like him to cap off a magical season with some post-season heroics, regardless of how far the team goes in the playoffs. Presumably he'll get his chances down the line.

Could you use Fishers Exact Test?

I wouldn't say he is better than Eric Hosmer who rebounded pretty well last year and is still just 23 y/o.

Not that I disagree that it was a terrible trade.

  A friend of mine who's written for years for Sports Illustrated has said game two tends to be the key game in a series.  I think that's quite true here, just as it was against the Reds in '75 (they won game won and were winning game two, but lost it and lost the series on the road).  If the sox win,
their consistency during the season makes 3 losses in a row unlikely, plus it's unlikely they even face Price a second time.  Whereas a loss by the sox takes away their home edge and makes a game 5 in which they face him quite possible.  On a different note,  I wish Farrell had given Bogaerts an atbat late in the blowout yesterday to get his feet wet for what may be a more critical appearance later in the series.  It seems that perhaps he is managing like a pitching coach- I agreed with his roster choices and pitching moves, but a few of the hitting moves, namely this one irritate me.

@alexspeier Sox ALDS Gm 2 vs. TB:
Ellsbury CF, Victorino RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Gomes LF, Middlebrooks 3B, Drew SS, Ross C, Lackey SP

Of course, Lackey has a big pre-ASB / post-ASB split: 2.78 ERA at the break, 4.35 since.

His GB% has gone from .519 to .433, which is statistically significant (p = .04). His K rate has declined from .225 to .188 (20% chance of being random, but probably real given the change in GB%) and his LD% is up from .184 to .229. He had a .276 BABIP (.283 expected) before, .289 since (.292 expected).

Looking at his OPS allowed, I think the ERA split has been exaggerated by better / worse performance with runners on. But he's definitely been less sharp.

I've looked at his pitch/fx data and there's nothing obvious. He's lost an inch of armside run on his fastball. He's not throwing his curve for strikes as often (from .621 to .527) and is throwing it less (.125 to .071), and getting far fewer swinging strikes (.118 to .043). But he's actually had better movement on his slider. It's possible that the decline in the curve is causing his FB to be less effective.

So if there's a key to look for in this game, it might be whether he gets any swings and misses with the 79-mph curve. And of course, if he's getting ground balls, that's very big, and not just because it makes us happy that Drew is at SS.

Lackey not looking sharp while walking the leadoff hitter.

I think we need to analyze the Myers mis-play a little more.

Ellbsury is such a weapon.