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10/15 Red Sox vs. Tigers ALCS Game 3 Thread
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Oct 15, 2013 7:34:39 GMT -5
10/15 Red Sox (RHP John Lackey 1-0 6.75) @ Tigers (RHP Justin Verlander 1-0 0.00) 4:07 pm ET, FOX/WEEI ALCS Game 3Season SeriesTigers won season series 4-3 How they got here?Red Sox 97-65 AL East Champions, Beat Tampa Bay 3-1 in ALDS Tigers 93-69 AL Central Champions, Beat Oakland 3-2 in ALDS Playoff HistoryFirst playoff meeting MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2013 8:39:35 GMT -5
Just to review: Starting Gomes over Nava in this game is moronic. In fact, I want Gomes waiting on the bench for when they bring in Smiley. That is all.
Big opportunity here - win this game it will definitely (further) deflate Det. And it gets you back home field.
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Post by godot on Oct 15, 2013 9:47:07 GMT -5
Farrell's reasoning on perhaps using Gomes over Nava was interesting. Basically he was looking over the stats and referring to Gomes "intangibles",- his energy, ability to make things happen. He even compared him to Dustin in this manner ( from a WEEI article). Farrell is suppose to be into stats but he seems to also uses intuition/judgment.. .
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 15, 2013 10:20:22 GMT -5
Isn't Gomes like 0 for 7 against Verlander?
It's a SSS no matter who plays it just seems like Nava has a better chance. I like Gomes, but this "winner" thing is overplayed a bit.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 15, 2013 12:13:23 GMT -5
Gomes is playing ffs.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 15, 2013 12:14:30 GMT -5
Isn't Gomes like 0 for 7 against Verlander? It's a SSS no matter who plays it just seems like Nava has a better chance. I like Gomes, but this "winner" thing is overplayed a bit. Gomes: 0-9 Nava: 1-3
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2013 12:37:24 GMT -5
Nava 1-3 with a walk. Also is averaging just under 6 pitches seen per plate appearance in post season (since we're dealing with small samples) whereas Gomes is averaging just over 3 pitcher per plate appearance.
So in a game where you want to get men on base and run up pitch counts, and prevent runs in the field our manager is opting for "grittiness" "intangible" and "smarts." I very, very much wish to be wrong here but this is just idiotic. Or, in other words:
@timbritton Players with a higher OBP this season against RHP than Daniel Nava: Votto, Choo, Ortiz, Davis, Trout, Cabrera.
I wonder if Farrell sits Nava if his name is Votto, Choo, Ortiz, Davis, Trout, or Cabrera?
OK, now I'm done.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 15, 2013 12:43:32 GMT -5
Nava 1-3 with a walk. Also is averaging just under 6 pitches seen per plate appearance in post season (since we're dealing with small samples) whereas Gomes is averaging just over 3 pitcher per plate appearance. So in a game where you want to get men on base and run up pitch counts, and prevent runs in the field our manager is opting for "grittiness" "intangible" and "smarts." I very, very much wish to be wrong here but this is just idiotic. Or, in other words: @timbritton Players with a higher OBP this season against RHP than Daniel Nava: Votto, Choo, Ortiz, Davis, Trout, Cabrera. I wonder if Farrell sits Nava if his name is Votto, Choo, Ortiz, Davis, Trout, or Cabrera? OK, now I'm done. I don't get it either. I would think there's more ground in LF in Detroit to cover than Fenway, too. I figured a silver lining with Detroit's tough pitching staff is that it would play to the strengths of Drew and Nava and Ortiz. I just don't see the reason to sit Nava, and I do love when Gomes comes off the bench in a late game situation. Given how tough Verlander has been lately, the Sox need all the help they can get, especially with a rusty John Lackey pitching. I guess we'll see how this plays out.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 15, 2013 12:45:48 GMT -5
Nava 1-3 with a walk. Also is averaging just under 6 pitches seen per plate appearance in post season (since we're dealing with small samples) whereas Gomes is averaging just over 3 pitcher per plate appearance. So in a game where you want to get men on base and run up pitch counts, and prevent runs in the field our manager is opting for "grittiness" "intangible" and "smarts." I very, very much wish to be wrong here but this is just idiotic. Or, in other words: @timbritton Players with a higher OBP this season against RHP than Daniel Nava: Votto, Choo, Ortiz, Davis, Trout, Cabrera. I wonder if Farrell sits Nava if his name is Votto, Choo, Ortiz, Davis, Trout, or Cabrera? OK, now I'm done. I don't get it either. I would think there's more ground in LF in Detroit to cover than Fenway, too. I figured a silver lining with Detroit's tough pitching staff is that it would play to the strengths of Drew and Nava and Ortiz. I just don't see the reason to sit Nava, and I do love when Gomes comes off the bench in a late game situation. Given how tough Verlander has been lately, the Sox need all the help they can get, especially with a rusty John Lackey pitching. I guess we'll see how this plays out. RHB are hitting .271 vs Verlander this year, compared to .236 for LHB.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2013 12:47:07 GMT -5
I don't get it either. I would think there's more ground in LF in Detroit to cover than Fenway, too. I figured a silver lining with Detroit's tough pitching staff is that it would play to the strengths of Drew and Nava and Ortiz. I just don't see the reason to sit Nava, and I do love when Gomes comes off the bench in a late game situation. Given how tough Verlander has been lately, the Sox need all the help they can get, especially with a rusty John Lackey pitching. I guess we'll see how this plays out. RHB are hitting .271 vs Verlander this year, compared to .236 for LHB. Except for Gomes who is hitting .000 Also I think this leaves you with one real RH bat on the bench to use in later innings - Bogaerts, which is great - but I'd rather have 2.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 15, 2013 12:48:24 GMT -5
I don't get it either. I would think there's more ground in LF in Detroit to cover than Fenway, too. I figured a silver lining with Detroit's tough pitching staff is that it would play to the strengths of Drew and Nava and Ortiz. I just don't see the reason to sit Nava, and I do love when Gomes comes off the bench in a late game situation. Given how tough Verlander has been lately, the Sox need all the help they can get, especially with a rusty John Lackey pitching. I guess we'll see how this plays out. RHB are hitting .271 vs Verlander this year, compared to .236 for LHB. I'd still go with Nava given his success against righties, even one that has a reverse split, but I guess that must be what Farrell is looking at, or at least I hope that's what he's looking at.
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Post by godot on Oct 15, 2013 13:17:45 GMT -5
Looks like Gomes is in left. It will be interesting to see how this turns out. Middlebrooks is at third also
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 15, 2013 13:24:15 GMT -5
What is the most mind bottling is not necessarily the starting of Gomes today, but the fact that Farrell is starting Nava against Fister tomorrow. I don't like turning Nava around to his weaker side under any circumstances even if he does have good numbers Vs. Fister.
Farrell's reasoning for playing Gomes today was to change the personality of the team and to give Detroit a "different look" .... That's hardly convincing. Sometimes a manager simply has a hunch, let's hope that it works out and Johnny is a hero today.
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Post by okin15 on Oct 15, 2013 13:30:09 GMT -5
Pitcher splits are more important than batter splits, especially since almost all batters have regular splits, while some pitchers have predictable reverse splits (despite pitching against those regular batters).
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 15, 2013 13:40:38 GMT -5
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Farrell has some super secret stats that make Gomes the smart choice here. I know about Verlander's reverse splits and such. It could also be that Nava doesn't have an adequate percentage of facial hair growth. You don't want to be playing a day game in Detroit without a thick mane on your face.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 15, 2013 13:49:50 GMT -5
Verlander's reverse splits would be relevant if Gomes and Nava were anything close to equally good hitters against right-handers. Between this and the McGee/Drew/Bogaerts situation in Game 3 the ALDS, I think Farrell is far too impressed by reverse pitcher splits.
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 13:53:06 GMT -5
I don't get it either. I would think there's more ground in LF in Detroit to cover than Fenway, too. I figured a silver lining with Detroit's tough pitching staff is that it would play to the strengths of Drew and Nava and Ortiz. I just don't see the reason to sit Nava, and I do love when Gomes comes off the bench in a late game situation. Given how tough Verlander has been lately, the Sox need all the help they can get, especially with a rusty John Lackey pitching. I guess we'll see how this plays out. RHB are hitting .271 vs Verlander this year, compared to .236 for LHB. Verlander in 2013: Versus lefties: 9.12 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, .305 BABIP, 3.64 xFIP Versus righties: 8.70 K/9, 2.53 BB/9, .332 BABIP, 3.70 xFIP Verlander, career: Versus lefties: 8.76 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, .286 BABIP, 3.71 xFIP Versus righties: 8.17 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, .290 BABIP, 3.72 xFIP
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 13:54:02 GMT -5
What is the most mind bottling is not necessarily the starting of Gomes today, but the fact that Farrell is starting Nava against Fister tomorrow. I don't like turning Nava around to his weaker side under any circumstances even if he does have good numbers Vs. Fister. Fister is a right-handed pitcher.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2013 14:02:22 GMT -5
What is the most mind bottling is not necessarily the starting of Gomes today, but the fact that Farrell is starting Nava against Fister tomorrow. I don't like turning Nava around to his weaker side under any circumstances even if he does have good numbers Vs. Fister. Fister is a right-handed pitcher. The urge to one-liner here being monumentally suppressed....
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 15, 2013 14:13:58 GMT -5
Sean McAdam ?@sean_McAdam 10s Courtesy of the great @highheatstats: Gomes .714 OPS vs. power pitchers this season, while Nava is .637.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,984
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Post by jimoh on Oct 15, 2013 14:15:05 GMT -5
Nava had a great at-bat with the bases loaded vs Verlander May 29, 2012; I remember thinking Verlander was just too much for him, but he hung on for a full count and then took a hard fastball the other way for a 3-run hard-hit wall-ball double. www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201205290.shtmlBut calling Farrell moronic for starting Gomes seems ... moronic.
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Post by charliezink16 on Oct 15, 2013 14:25:08 GMT -5
RHB are hitting .271 vs Verlander this year, compared to .236 for LHB. Except for Gomes who is hitting .000 Also I think this leaves you with one real RH bat on the bench to use in later innings - Bogaerts, which is great - but I'd rather have 2. I don't understand Farrell's logic in starting Gomes, but I disagree with you here. I'd rather have 2 LH bats on the bench than RH ones. If its a close game, I'd assume that Leyland would go Veras-Benoit in the 8th-9th, so having two guys (Nava+Carp) to match up with these pitchers is quite convenient. Anyway, you 9-5'ers aren't the only ones suffering from the early start. I'll be in class until 9:00, bring on the stream, GO SOX.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 15, 2013 14:32:47 GMT -5
Yeah, I understand Fister is RH , I realized it right after I posted. Nava also has some pretty good numbers against him albeit in 15 AB's .
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 15, 2013 14:44:22 GMT -5
Although I still believe that Nava should play, I think assuming that Farrell is only looking at the stats we're looking at is silly. The "power pitcher" thing is interesting, for instance.
Mostly, though, I really hope these games continue to be as terrific as the first two were ... those were two classics to start the series.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 15, 2013 14:52:08 GMT -5
I noticed that (up until the playoffs) Verlander's high-K games this year were all against weak-hitting teams. So I looked into that, using each start (including post-season) as a data point, looking at how his various rates depended on those of the team he was facing. I used the season totals of each team he pitched against, in the location where he pitched: the team's home splits if he was on the road, their road splits if he was at Comerica.
It turns out that his K rate is hugely dependent on the opposition -- on not just their K rate, but their walk rate, their HR / Contact, and their BABIP, with cool interactions among them. I derived a regression formula that predicted K rates as low as .108 and as high as .394 and was startlingly accurate (the actual K rates in those games were .133 and .375, which is to say the formula predicted 3 K versus 9, and the actual K totals were 4 and 9), r = .72, p = .0008. All of the terms in the regression have p < .01.
So, I'll cut to the chase: Verlander's expected K rate against the Sox at Comerica is .165, or about 4.4 K over 27 batters faced. When we faced him in June, he indeed fanned 4 out of 26.
Why is this so? He does not strike out a lot of guys when the opponents walk a lot and have high HRC and BABIP, that is, they hit the ball hard.
Next, he has exceeded his predicted rate the last four games, fanning 12, 10, 11, 10 instead of the expected 9, 8, 9, 9. He should be expected to keep that up, but that still bumps his expected K total in this game up to about 6. If he fans 9 (of 27), it'll be the most he's exceeded his prediction all season.
So, if he is striking out hitters at a higher rate than that, and sustaining it, that means that either the Tigers have (as I speculated earlier) successfully done a jujutsu on our preparation by consciously changing up their pitch sequencing from what they did earlier in the season, or that our batters are in a deep, deep funk.
I also looked at walk rate and home run rate. I couldn't find a pattern I believed in for the former, while the latter has him suppressing home runs against us somewhat, with essentially 0.5 expected today.
I'll go into this in more detail later, maybe.
Edit: if he does strike out just 5 or 6 guys, all the media will credit the momentum change from Sunday, of course.
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