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10/15 Red Sox vs. Tigers ALCS Game 3 Thread
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 16:15:16 GMT -5
I noticed that (up until the playoffs) Verlander's high-K games this year were all against weak-hitting teams. So I looked into that, using each start (including post-season) as a data point, looking at how his various rates depended on those of the team he was facing. I used the season totals of each team he pitched against, in the location where he pitched: the team's home splits if he was on the road, their road splits if he was at Comerica. It turns out that his K rate is hugely dependent on the opposition -- on not just their K rate, but their walk rate, their HR / Contact, and their BABIP, with cool interactions among them. I derived a regression formula that predicted K rates as low as .108 and as high as .394 and was startlingly accurate (the actual K rates in those games were .133 and .375, which is to say the formula predicted 3 K versus 9, and the actual K totals were 4 and 9), r = .72, p = .0008. All of the terms in the regression have p < .01. So, I'll cut to the chase: Verlander's expected K rate against the Sox at Comerica is .165, or about 4.4 K over 27 batters faced. When we faced him in June, he indeed fanned 4 out of 26. Why is this so? He does not strike out a lot of guys when the opponents walk a lot and have high HRC and BABIP, that is, they hit the ball hard. Next, he has exceeded his predicted rate the last four games, fanning 12, 10, 11, 10 instead of the expected 9, 8, 9, 9. He should be expected to keep that up, but that still bumps his expected K total in this game up to about 6. If he fans 9 (of 27), it'll be the most he's exceeded his prediction all season. So, if he is striking out hitters at a higher rate than that, and sustaining it, that means that either the Tigers have (as I speculated earlier) successfully done a jujutsu on our preparation by consciously changing up their pitch sequencing from what they did earlier in the season, or that our batters are in a deep, deep funk. I also looked at walk rate and home run rate. I couldn't find a pattern I believed in for the former, while the latter has him suppressing home runs against us somewhat, with essentially 0.5 expected today. I'll go into this in more detail later, maybe. Edit: if he does strike out just 5 or 6 guys, all the media will credit the momentum change from Sunday, of course.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 15, 2013 16:15:18 GMT -5
The sox are gonna set all sorts of records for K's.... Maybe the strategy is to K continueously to lull the tigers defense into a state of perpetual boredom, then strike in the 8th with infield singles. Speaking of infield singles, if these guys truly can't touch the ball, why don't they bunt and see what happens if they force the play to Cabrera and Fielder?
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 16:16:30 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 15, 2013 16:17:57 GMT -5
Why is Xander not playing? Middelbrooks can't hit shit.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 15, 2013 16:21:32 GMT -5
Now the Tigers are K-ing maybe the hitters back-drop sucks....
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 15, 2013 16:22:23 GMT -5
Why is Xander not playing? Middelbrooks can't hit shit. Nobody can. Now Lackey has 4 consecutive strikeouts. Could it be with that grey sky, the ball is somehow coming out of it and the batters can't see?
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 16:23:28 GMT -5
I'm totally serious here-- do you really think Xander Bogaerts would help much? I mean, Ellsbury and Victorino are a combined 1/16 with 9 Ks and 3 BBs/HBPs. But Will Middlebrooks, who is 1/6 with a 2B and 3 Ks, is the guy you're choosing to call out.
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Post by MLBDreams on Oct 15, 2013 16:24:37 GMT -5
I'm watching from the Gameday @ work. I wish they would abandon by working on the counts (take strike one & take strike 2) and getting strike out. It become too easy for Detroit starting pitchers. It's awful way to approach for the Sox hitters. Let's swing @ borderline strike and get hit. I hate to watch them being unable to hit and pile up strikeouts.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Oct 15, 2013 16:29:07 GMT -5
I'm totally serious here-- do you really think Xander Bogaerts would help much? I mean, Ellsbury and Victorino are a combined 1/16 with 9 Ks and 3 BBs/HBPs. But Will Middlebrooks, who is 1/6 with a 2B and 3 Ks, is the guy you're choosing to call out. He also started "The Rally"....At some point no pitching staff is this good, at least 4 no hit innings by starters every game? This as much about the Sox hitters being lost and making no adjustments.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 15, 2013 16:34:16 GMT -5
I'm totally serious here-- do you really think Xander Bogaerts would help much? I mean, Ellsbury and Victorino are a combined 1/16 with 9 Ks and 3 BBs/HBPs. But Will Middlebrooks, who is 1/6 with a 2B and 3 Ks, is the guy you're choosing to call out. When the same offense you've been throwing out there has been consistently helpless and striking out a crapload, and includes high K guys like Salty, Napoli, Middlebrooks, and Drew, wouldn't you at least want to try playing 2 guys in Nava and Bogaerts who profile a little differently, let alone have great offensive potential? It may not help much, but it could - and it definitely won't hurt, that much is certain. EDIT: Lackey and Verlander with identical pitch counts after 4.0 IP each - 55 pitches (40 strikes for Lackey, 39 for Verlander).
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 15, 2013 16:38:14 GMT -5
I'm totally serious here-- do you really think Xander Bogaerts would help much? I mean, Ellsbury and Victorino are a combined 1/16 with 9 Ks and 3 BBs/HBPs. But Will Middlebrooks, who is 1/6 with a 2B and 3 Ks, is the guy you're choosing to call out. You know Farrell is not going to replace Pedroia or Ellsbury. He could replace Will and he should shuffle something up by now IMO. Bogaerts has looked good in limited time this postseason.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 15, 2013 16:38:14 GMT -5
Lackey cruising right now. Don't know that he can outlast Verlander, but he's looking good.
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 16:40:49 GMT -5
Those high-K guys also walk a lot (exception: Middlebrooks) and are very possible of hitting one out at any moment (see Gomes' first at-bat), which might be the better avenue of scoring runs considering how utterly incapable the lineup seems of stringing a couple hits together. Frankly, I'm more upset that Ellsbury and Victorino have shown zero ability to put the ball in play, which is the best offensive skill for both those players.
I mean, maybe Xander would have hit better than Drew/Middlebrooks, but that's mostly because it'd be tough to hit worse than they have so far. Going forward though? Not sure Xander would be much of an upgrade on either.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 15, 2013 16:41:48 GMT -5
Napoli: Taking heaters in the middle of the zone, swinging at any outside of it. Should have started Nava at first.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 15, 2013 16:43:42 GMT -5
Napoli: Taking heaters in the middle of the zone, swinging at any outside of it. Should have started Nava at first. Pathetic
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 15, 2013 16:44:35 GMT -5
Hopeless.
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Post by pedey on Oct 15, 2013 16:44:39 GMT -5
Napoli: Taking heaters in the middle of the zone, swinging at any outside of it. Should have started Nava at first. Or Carp at 1st and Nava in LF. This is sad. Three games in a row the Sox are going to be no-hit through 5 innings. They are lost offensively. The only hope is that Lackey doesn't allow a single run and the Sox can get to the bullpen by the 7th or 8th inning. EDIT: Gomes got an infield hit
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 16:45:03 GMT -5
I know the lineup is one of the few variables we as fans can argue about changing. But that's not the problem. Verlander has been filthy since about the second. He's up to 96-97 with excellent command of his fastball and the ability to throw multiple offspeed pitches for strikes. It's frustrating to watch, but tweaking the margins of the lineup wouldn't do much. The Red Sox hitters just have to hit better, end of story.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 15, 2013 16:45:38 GMT -5
That grit. Finally. No no-hitter.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 15, 2013 16:46:24 GMT -5
Jonny Gomes! Woo-hoo!
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 15, 2013 16:46:50 GMT -5
Those high-K guys also walk a lot (exception: Middlebrooks) and are very possible of hitting one out at any moment (see Gomes' first at-bat), which might be the better avenue of scoring runs considering how utterly incapable the lineup seems of stringing a couple hits together. Frankly, I'm more upset that Ellsbury and Victorino have shown zero ability to put the ball in play, which is the best offensive skill for both those players. I mean, maybe Xander would have hit better than Drew/Middlebrooks, but that's mostly because it'd be tough to hit worse than they have so far. Going forward though? Not sure Xander would be much of an upgrade on either. I don't think walks are all that important right now when none of them can get a hit at all. How much time can you wait for Napoli or Middlebrooks or Drew to get hits, because as we know, it can take a long freakin' time for them to get something going, especially the first two. Well there's a hit, kinda.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Oct 15, 2013 16:47:12 GMT -5
The worst part of all this is how bad the Tigers defense really is
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2013 16:47:30 GMT -5
Pinch hit for .078 drew here, please.
And. I. Am. Not. Kidding.
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Post by pedey on Oct 15, 2013 16:56:41 GMT -5
The Sox can't afford having the Tigers score ONE run. Gotta keep the game scoreless
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 15, 2013 16:58:23 GMT -5
Pinch hit for .078 drew here, please. And. I. Am. Not. Kidding. Can it be that the answer is as simple as having to give the Tigers' starters credit. Maybe we are simply seeing the most dominant stretch of starting pitching in the history of major league playoff baseball. They have completely overwhelmed the [statistically at least] best hitting team in the major leagues this year. It's like they're facing a high school team out there.
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