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Post by James Dunne on Oct 15, 2013 15:08:42 GMT -5
Verlander just struck out 10 and 11 batters in two starts against Oakland. They had a middling BABIP, but the second highest walk rate and third-highest wRC in the American League and only the 9th highest K rate.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 15, 2013 15:12:55 GMT -5
lets try and get a hit before the 6th this time Sox... OK!?!?
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Post by preston on Oct 15, 2013 15:20:43 GMT -5
Way too much solid contact against Lackey.
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Post by pedey on Oct 15, 2013 15:21:09 GMT -5
Lackey has given up some hard-hit balls. They are up in the zone to get crushed. If he gets out of this inning unscathed, great, but that wont continue if he continues giving up hard hit balls.
I hope that if Lackey gets roughed up, Farrell will remember that he has 2 good starters in Doubront and Dempster in the bullpen that can pick up some innings
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Post by dfwsox on Oct 15, 2013 15:25:48 GMT -5
Dodged a bullet there. Now lets get the bats going early.
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 15:28:42 GMT -5
Verlander's velocity is noticeably down so far. Hasn't gotten a swing-and-miss on his fastball yet.
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Post by pedey on Oct 15, 2013 15:30:24 GMT -5
Great at-bat by Ortiz.
EDIT: And a horrible one by Napoli. He looks lost on breaking balls. He took 2 right in the zone and swings a low pitch for strike 3
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 15, 2013 15:31:53 GMT -5
Verlander's velocity is noticeably down so far. Hasn't gotten a swing-and-miss on his fastball yet. Is there a breakdown anywhere of Verlander's fastball velocity by inning? I know the book on him is that he'll sit 92 in the first and then hit 99 in the ninth, but I was wondering if it has been broken out anywhere.
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 15:36:05 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 15:39:11 GMT -5
Oh, was that close. Foul by a few feet.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Oct 15, 2013 15:40:44 GMT -5
Oh, was that close. Foul by a few feet. Yeah, they know that on my conference call now as well...oops
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 15, 2013 15:40:50 GMT -5
Maybe Farrell can channel his 1999 Jimy Williams and make blatantly wrong managerial decisions that end up working anyway.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 15, 2013 15:43:07 GMT -5
Let's K less alright boys?
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2013 15:45:00 GMT -5
I noticed that (up until the playoffs) Verlander's high-K games this year were all against weak-hitting teams. So I looked into that, using each start (including post-season) as a data point, looking at how his various rates depended on those of the team he was facing. I used the season totals of each team he pitched against, in the location where he pitched: the team's home splits if he was on the road, their road splits if he was at Comerica. It turns out that his K rate is hugely dependent on the opposition -- on not just their K rate, but their walk rate, their HR / Contact, and their BABIP, with cool interactions among them. I derived a regression formula that predicted K rates as low as .108 and as high as .394 and was startlingly accurate (the actual K rates in those games were .133 and .375, which is to say the formula predicted 3 K versus 9, and the actual K totals were 4 and 9), r = .72, p = .0008. All of the terms in the regression have p < .01. So, I'll cut to the chase: Verlander's expected K rate against the Sox at Comerica is .165, or about 4.4 K over 27 batters faced. When we faced him in June, he indeed fanned 4 out of 26. Why is this so? He does not strike out a lot of guys when the opponents walk a lot and have high HRC and BABIP, that is, they hit the ball hard. Next, he has exceeded his predicted rate the last four games, fanning 12, 10, 11, 10 instead of the expected 9, 8, 9, 9. He should be expected to keep that up, but that still bumps his expected K total in this game up to about 6. If he fans 9 (of 27), it'll be the most he's exceeded his prediction all season. So, if he is striking out hitters at a higher rate than that, and sustaining it, that means that either the Tigers have (as I speculated earlier) successfully done a jujutsu on our preparation by consciously changing up their pitch sequencing from what they did earlier in the season, or that our batters are in a deep, deep funk. I also looked at walk rate and home run rate. I couldn't find a pattern I believed in for the former, while the latter has him suppressing home runs against us somewhat, with essentially 0.5 expected today. I'll go into this in more detail later, maybe. Edit: if he does strike out just 5 or 6 guys, all the media will credit the momentum change from Sunday, of course. Only 1.4-3.0Ks to go to reach expectations.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2013 15:47:34 GMT -5
Apparently they've just lost power to the lights and scoreboards.
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 15:47:37 GMT -5
Apparently it's going to take 15-20 minutes to get the lights back on at Comerica.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Oct 15, 2013 15:49:32 GMT -5
Apparently it's going to take 15-20 minutes to get the lights back on at Comerica. its too dark to play?.. Watching Lackey, looks like its already in his head
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 15, 2013 15:51:03 GMT -5
Pretty shitty considering there's pretty heavy rain supposed to come in.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 15, 2013 15:57:09 GMT -5
Guys its over.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 15, 2013 15:57:21 GMT -5
Pretty shitty considering there's pretty heavy rain supposed to come in. Thats actually probably good news. Verlander-Lackey match up favors Detroit. Look on the bright side : )
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2013 15:57:26 GMT -5
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 15, 2013 15:59:58 GMT -5
Pretty shitty considering there's pretty heavy rain supposed to come in. Looking at the radar, it appears as though rain won't be arriving in Detroit for 3-4 hours at least, so hopefully they can get the game in. Thank God Napoli and Gomes bring that extra-special grit. Better inning for Lackey in the 2nd.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 15, 2013 16:12:29 GMT -5
The sox are gonna set all sorts of records for K's.... Maybe the strategy is to K continueously to lull the tigers defense into a state of perpetual boredom, then strike in the 8th with infield singles.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,824
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 15, 2013 16:14:17 GMT -5
There's no way Xander could've gone 2-22 in the playoffs.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 15, 2013 16:15:04 GMT -5
For real?
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