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10/27 Red Sox vs. Cardinals World Series Game 4 Thread
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Post by jmei on Oct 28, 2013 8:47:42 GMT -5
You're way overthinking it. The error bands in any given game are so broad that it's a fool's errand to try and rig up the advantageous matchup like that. Unless Lackey needs another day of R&R, he'll pitch game 6.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 28, 2013 9:46:12 GMT -5
Clay talked about getting more movement on his pitches as a result of not going all-out. Pitch/fx says that didn't happen, which makes his performance that much more impressive.
Compared to the average of all of his pre-injury starts, all his pitches had less rise and more armside run. So it looks like his arm angle was lower. But in terms of total movement ... (FC is cutter)
FB (down 3.7 mph) had 0.8" less movement SI (down 0.5 mph relative to FB) had 0.4" more movement relative to FB FC (up 0.2" mph relative to FB) had 0.3" less CH (at -9.8 relative to FB rather than -12.3) had 0.9" less CU (up 0.8" mph relative to FB) had 0.1" more
You can regard velocity differential as part of a pitch's effective movement. So the curve was really the only pitch with better movement relative to his FB (harder, relative, is better). The FB and change, in particular, had less movement. The sinker and cutter were probably down just a bit in effective movement.
In terms of pitch selection, the big difference was throwing more sinkers (33% rather than 20%) and fewer cutters (13% instead of 23%).
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Post by ramireja on Oct 28, 2013 9:56:54 GMT -5
I just took about 20 minutes to read through this gameday thread. I love and hate you guys at the same time.
Buchholz may have not had a lot of movement or velocity, but I thought he did a fantastic job of working low in the zone and staying out of the heart of the plate, even if he walked a few batters tonight. Gutsy and fantastic performance.
What a postseason this has been so far
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 28, 2013 11:20:12 GMT -5
We have to consider Dempster tonight potentially if Lester has problems. I don't think anyone wants to do it but the guy probably would be better than we think and if inserted at the right time he could get some outs at the end of that lineup in particular. Don't mean to be discouraging because he may well be decent but St.Louis has probably seen a lot of him.
St. Louis almost put in Martinez for 4 games in a row and they got Rosenthal up throwing as well but didn't put him in. We probably can still go to Tazawa and Koji. Workman didn't throw yesterday. He would seem to be a realistic option. St. Louis probably has a slight edge with relievers.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 28, 2013 11:31:38 GMT -5
You're way overthinking it. The error bands in any given game are so broad that it's a fool's errand to try and rig up the advantageous matchup like that. Unless Lackey needs another day of R&R, he'll pitch game 6. On any given [single] game, yes. But we now have an 11 game sample of the Sox struggling mightily against top-quality, strong raw stuff pitching this postseason,which might tighten the error bands about what will happen to the Sox offense in game 6 against Wacha. And we have the ancillary information of Lackey having to pitch an inning to help close out last night's game. This series has some eerie deja vu feeling of the 1975 series to me. Game 11975: Sox cruise to a dominant win behind workhorse Luis Tiant 2013: Sox cruise to a dominant win behind workhorse Jon Lester Game 21975: Reds erase a 2-1 deficit late and come from behind to win. 2013: Cards erase a 2-1 deficit late and come from behind to win. Game 31975: Reds win, with the pivotal play being a collision at home plate after an Ed Armbrister bunt. The contact was ruled no interference or obstruction, and Fisk's subsequent wild throw to 2B, likely affected by the contact, set up the winning rally. 2013: Cards win, with the pivotal (in this case deciding) play being contact at 3B, on which the runner was awarded home with the deciding run on obstruction. Game 41975: Sox win a nail-biter. Last out recorded, with the tying and winning runs on base in the 9th, accompanying a baserunning controversy when Geronimo, on 2B, took off for 3B and some suggested distracted Joe Morgan, who popped up to end the game. 2013: Sox win a nail-biter. Last out recorded when, with the tying run at the plate, pinch runner Wong gets picked off first to end the game.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 28, 2013 11:41:53 GMT -5
Agreed. Felix has been awesome, too. I kinda hope he's the one who gets the call if there is a Game 7. But if Felix gets the call in game 7 he isn't going to have any chance of giving a bonafide start (say, 5 innings) unless he doesn't pitch in the next two games. We've got to win one of those next two. The more I think about it, the more I like approach 2 IF the Sox can win tonight. Lackey is going to make one more start and that's it now. Wouldn't it be worth it to have him ready for a game 7 and on extra rest? Should we really burn him in game 6 against Wacha rather than having him ready to go against a Kelly? Then what happens if Wakka comes out flat and gives up 5 runs and the Red Sox, because they elected to hold out John Lackey until game 7, end up losing 6-5 or 7-5? Can you imagine the backlash? Pin your best guys against their best guys and see what happens. There's no guarantee that Kelly doesn't come out and induces ground ball out after ground ball out and that Wakka is going to be as sharp as he has been.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 28, 2013 11:42:06 GMT -5
Double post.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 28, 2013 11:53:01 GMT -5
I want to see the Red Sox go with their best pitchers which means Lester tonight, Lackey tomorrow night and everyone not named Dempster or Morales available for Games 5, 6 and 7 (if necessary). I also don't want to see Breslow in a high leverage situation for the rest of the World Series as he has been downright awful with his control, allowing inheritted runners to score, etc. They might be able to pitch Doubrant for an inning or so tonight or tomorrow night, followed by Workman, Tazawa and Uehara. This is not the time to be over-thinking pitching matchups when they are so close to winning the Cup for Menino. #WinTonight
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Post by jmei on Oct 28, 2013 12:01:16 GMT -5
You're way overthinking it. The error bands in any given game are so broad that it's a fool's errand to try and rig up the advantageous matchup like that. Unless Lackey needs another day of R&R, he'll pitch game 6. On any given [single] game, yes. But we now have an 11 game sample of the Sox struggling mightily against top-quality, strong raw stuff pitching this postseason,which might tighten the error bands about what will happen to the Sox offense in game 6 against Wacha. And we have the ancillary information of Lackey having to pitch an inning to help close out last night's game. They scored 8 runs off Matt Moore in ALDS Game 1, 7 runs off David Price in ALDS Game 2, 4 runs off Sanchez in ALCS Game 5, and 5 runs off Wainwright just three games ago. Hell, they got two runs off Wacha last time out, which may be good enough to win if the pitching comes through. Again, unless Lackey genuinely needs another day, I don't see the point.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 28, 2013 12:03:50 GMT -5
But if Felix gets the call in game 7 he isn't going to have any chance of giving a bonafide start (say, 5 innings) unless he doesn't pitch in the next two games. We've got to win one of those next two. The more I think about it, the more I like approach 2 IF the Sox can win tonight. Lackey is going to make one more start and that's it now. Wouldn't it be worth it to have him ready for a game 7 and on extra rest? Should we really burn him in game 6 against Wacha rather than having him ready to go against a Kelly? Then what happens if Wakka comes out flat and gives up 5 runs and the Red Sox, because they elected to hold out John Lackey until game 7, end up losing 6-5 or 7-5? Can you imagine the backlash? Pin your best guys against their best guys and see what happens. There's no guarantee that Kelly doesn't come out and induces ground ball out after ground ball out and that Wakka is going to be as sharp as he has been. You are precisely right -- the downside of the idea is if Cardinal pitching implodes in game 6, but so does Sox cobbled-together pitching and they lose a high-scoring game. Given what we have seen the last 3 weeks, what is the higher-probability outcome: The Sox all of a sudden breaking out, or the offense continuing to scratch and claw for any few runs they can find against high-octane opponent pitching? Nothing is a guarantee -- including assuming that if Lackey were to pitch game 6, that he'd hold the Cardinals in check, especially since they asked him for extra duty last night. I will grant that the Lester/Lackey/Game 7 scenario has one appeal for me -- and that is if Doubront would be able to take the Game 7 start. But having Doubront available for game 7 means you don't pitch him again before then, unless you figure to use him as a short inning starter and essentially turn game 7 into a bullpen game. I am not a big fan of bullpen games for one reason: the more pitchers you run out there, the more likely it is you find [at least] one who doesn't have it that night.
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Post by soxcentral on Oct 28, 2013 12:12:41 GMT -5
Then what happens if Wakka comes out flat and gives up 5 runs and the Red Sox, because they elected to hold out John Lackey until game 7, end up losing 6-5 or 7-5? Can you imagine the backlash? Pin your best guys against their best guys and see what happens. There's no guarantee that Kelly doesn't come out and induces ground ball out after ground ball out and that Wakka is going to be as sharp as he has been. You are precisely right -- the downside of the idea is if Cardinal pitching implodes in game 6, but so does Sox cobbled-together pitching and they lose a high-scoring game. Given what we have seen the last 3 weeks, what is the higher-probability outcome: The Sox all of a sudden breaking out, or the offense continuing to scratch and claw for any few runs they can find against high-octane opponent pitching? Nothing is a guarantee -- including assuming that if Lackey were to pitch game 6, that he'd hold the Cardinals in check, especially since they asked him for extra duty last night. Would you still want to push Lackey back to Game 7 if the Sox lose tonight?
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 28, 2013 12:19:24 GMT -5
You are precisely right -- the downside of the idea is if Cardinal pitching implodes in game 6, but so does Sox cobbled-together pitching and they lose a high-scoring game. Given what we have seen the last 3 weeks, what is the higher-probability outcome: The Sox all of a sudden breaking out, or the offense continuing to scratch and claw for any few runs they can find against high-octane opponent pitching? Nothing is a guarantee -- including assuming that if Lackey were to pitch game 6, that he'd hold the Cardinals in check, especially since they asked him for extra duty last night. Would you still want to push Lackey back to Game 7 if the Sox lose tonight? No, because now we are in an elimination situation and we can't afford to concede anything against Wacha. We have no choice but to throw the best available starter up against him. If we win tonight we have a choice.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 28, 2013 12:48:56 GMT -5
Would you still want to push Lackey back to Game 7 if the Sox lose tonight? No, because now we are in an elimination situation and we can't afford to concede anything against Wacha. We have no choice but to throw the best available starter up against him. If we win tonight we have a choice. With you here. Lackey is one who hasn't been worked that hard anyway in the post season. his pitch counts and yes am going from memory without looking it up, but they have been in the 85 to just over 90 range am pretty sure throughout the PO, as well as his last tune up start to end the season. The problem these last few games is the pen, or guys Farrell can go to with trust are flat out getting tired from use. Dempster is of no use, Morales doesn't seem to elicit any either. Workman had just thrown nearly 30 pitches in game 3 and breslow is a thinking pitcher, who does his job vs teams that are just not that good and beats poor teams/players that way. Since TB Boston has faced much better teams, players and breslow is thinking along those same patterns with his mediocre stuff. It's not working and probably won't. He is a brilliant guy, but it's not going to play up vs the cardinals as much as wish it would. In this series he's of as much use as Dempster and would just as soon see Morales as him enter the game. They have got to get Lester to go 7 today to get some rest for that pen and the 3 guys who might be able to give them 15 or so pitches they can trust, or they are in trouble for tomorrow and hope they can save Workman for tomorrow if he's needed to come in for Lackey in long relief.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 28, 2013 14:19:03 GMT -5
If they won tonight, and said "we're going to hold Lackey back for game 7" what does that say to your team? YOu can't beat Wacha? So you're basically expecting to lose game 6 and putting all your eggs in the game 7 basket? Joe Kelly threw a damn good game the other day. It doesn't make any sense to me to concede a game whether you are up 3 or 1 and you are basically conceding a game if you push Lackey back a day.
The only reason he pitched last night is because it was his normal bullpen day. He would have thrown regardless. Last night shouldn't have any affect on his performance on Wednesday. If they were concerned it would, they would have simply left Tazawa in or gone to Workman. I think they pitched Lackey there to help preserve the bullpen. Farrell basically had a free inning of work with a strong pitcher.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 28, 2013 14:28:06 GMT -5
If Workman hadn't thrown all those innings, due to Peavy being inefficient he could have gone in game 6 if need be. Honestly? I'd have more faith in a 3/4 rested Workman that hadn't had to throw nearly 30 pitches Sunday than a rested Peavy in G7. Still might if they can hold him out of games tonight and Wednesday.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 28, 2013 14:39:55 GMT -5
I would rather Workman start a game 7 if he were rested than Peavy, but I think Peavy bought himself that start the way he settled down. I think that's bad news for Sox fans, but I can't see Farrel going away from him.
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