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Post by texs31 on Apr 17, 2014 7:42:52 GMT -5
THE MOST ANTICIPATED THREAD OF THE YEAR? Okay, maybe not. But I thought it would be good mojo to start things fresh (as we're hoping Boston does) with a new thread to discuss the draft, free agency and offseason trades. As we all know, Boston will be splitting ping-pong balls with Utah and will have about a 1/3 chance of getting one of the top 3 picks. They also will have a coin flip for the 17th/18th pick. They have trade exceptions, tradeable contracts, young assets, and future picks. Danny said to expect fireworks so let's see . . .
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 17, 2014 8:36:26 GMT -5
Safe to say Ainge's legacy as a GM will hinge on what he does this offseason, or at least what he sets in motion?
Could make the argument he was gifted Garnett, and thus the first championship.
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2014 9:00:33 GMT -5
The idea that Ainge was "gifted" Garnett is far too dismissive for my taste (not least of all because the Celtics clearly had the best offer on the table at the time). It's not easy to collect a bunch of assets and then cash them in at the right time. Sure, some element of luck is required too (i.e., the right superstar available for the right price), but it also takes a great deal of patience and vision. For me at least, Ainge's legacy as a GM is pretty clear already: he assembled a great team that won one title and was in serious contention for a couple more. Anything he does this offseason is icing on the cake.
More on-topic: Kevin Love or bust. He's a superstar in his prime who might be available, which is the exact scenario you collect all those assets for. Something like this year's pick (assuming it doesn't fall in the top 3), Sullinger, and some expirings should just about do it (maybe a protected future Nets pick). Then grab Asik for next years' Clippers pick and the trade exception, re-sign Bradley for reasonable dollars, and you have a Rondo/Bradley/Green/Love/Asik core that features complementary young players and should compete for a title almost immediately.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 17, 2014 9:06:39 GMT -5
This link show's some of Danny's trades (http://boston.cbslocal.com/photo-galleries/2013/02/19/danny-ainges-trades/)
As you look at the details, so many of them involved getting 1st round picks and/or players that turned into the assets that lead to building that championship team.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 17, 2014 9:08:30 GMT -5
Jon,
Would you make that move without an extension for Love? You get 1 year of him but I'm not sure what I'd do if he doesn't agree to sign an extension (most feel he wants to go to LAL).
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2014 9:23:15 GMT -5
The new CBA incentivizes getting to free agency before re-upping with your team (see the current Melo situation), so there's no chance he's signing an extension immediately after the trade no matter what team he gets moved to. He could agree to waive the opt-out he has after next season and guarantee that he'd stay in Boston for two years instead of one-- that would be enough for me.
Even if he didn't do that, I'd still probably do the trade if he seemed open to the idea of staying in Boston as part of a young, competitive core. The new CBA does provide some financial incentives to stay with your current team, and there aren't a lot of examples of a player bolting a winning team for purely geographical reasons. There would be some risk that the Celtics just fizzle next year and Love doesn't think he can win in Boston and so leaves in free agency (akin to the Lakers/Dwight situation), but that's a risk I'm happy to take for the chance to get one of the 10 best players in the game.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 17, 2014 10:45:56 GMT -5
Yea just grab Asik for a late first round pick. Easy Peezy.
Maybe you can get Love for that, but I wouldn't count on it. If you can, great but why should it matter if you have top 3 or not. If Kevin love is that good, he's worth any pick 1-8 in this draft.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 17, 2014 11:11:30 GMT -5
For me, that's where you get into the question of what is 1 year of Kevin Love worth? If I believe one of the top 3 picks can be a cornerstone for many years to come, then I don't know if I trade it away for that 1 year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 17, 2014 11:25:27 GMT -5
I guess I meant whether Ainge is a "good" versus a "great" GM. Not saying he'd be remembered as a bum or anything. Just mean that doing "destroy and rebuild" twice successfully would set him apart somewhat.
My bad if that was muddled by the Garnett comment. I just mean it could be easier to dismiss the 2007 moves if he's unable to do anything with the assets he's gathered this offseason.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 17, 2014 11:28:05 GMT -5
I think it would be a mistake to cash in assets at this point. I don't think the right opportunities exist (including Love) to cash in. I would gladly take another year or two of asset accumulation before cashing in.
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2014 11:40:43 GMT -5
The Rockets and Celtics almost completed an Asik deal centered around the Clippers pick this year. The Rockets didn't think that was enough (but they also didn't get any other better offers), but now Asik only has a year left on his contract, and while he only counts $8m against the cap, he's due to receive $14m in real cash next year, which might give other owners some hesitation. The Rockets also want to clear cap room for a run at Melo, and Boston is one of the few teams that can absorb all of Asik's contract without sending any money back. Maybe the Celtics need to include a sweetener (maybe the Philadelphia first round pick that is actually two second round picks), but it shouldn't take much more than the Clippers' pick to get Asik. If Embiid's medicals check out, he might be one of those transformational players that makes me hesitate to go down the win-now path. Wiggins or Parker may similarly be of that caliber, but I'm less sure about them. Noone else in the draft is near that level for me, so that's why I include the 1-3 qualification.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 17, 2014 11:44:16 GMT -5
Apparently Parker has decided to enter the NBA draft.
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2014 11:47:11 GMT -5
I think it would be a mistake to cash in assets at this point. I don't think the right opportunities exist (including Love) to cash in. I would gladly take another year or two of asset accumulation before cashing in. I just don't think this kind of opportunity comes up often enough that it makes sense to wait. The only real ways to get superstar talent (and you generally need two of them to compete) are to draft it or to trade for it. The draft route is incredibly risky (even a Philadelphia-style teardown guarantees nothing but comes with immense pain), and you can't be sure that another player of Love's caliber will be available at the right time.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 17, 2014 11:56:54 GMT -5
The "right time" is the key part of your statement.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 17, 2014 12:06:25 GMT -5
Apparently Parker has decided to enter the NBA draft. HUGE!
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 17, 2014 12:14:49 GMT -5
I think the Celtics should scout internationally better. Look at the value teams are getting in the back of the 1st 2nd round. I don't know if they are doing it and it just hasn't worked out but I think that's an area to strengthen the staff.
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2014 12:20:25 GMT -5
The "right time" is the key part of your statement. You don't think it's the right time? I'm not Rondo's biggest fan, but I still think he's an All-Star-caliber player in his prime, and next year is probably the last one where his salary:production ratio is a clear positive. The alternative to win-now is either a total tear-down (read: trade Rondo) or maintaining the status quo for another year and seeing if there are any opportunities next year, neither of which does anything for me.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,880
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Post by atzar on Apr 17, 2014 13:28:32 GMT -5
Just don't do anything dumb. Don't sell the farm for a pseudostar, and I'm not sure I see Love as a centerpiece-on-a-contender level of player. I like bigs who make a difference on defense, and Kevin Love's lack of significant impact on that end is a scary thing for me.
Be smart, and if that means next year is like this one then I'm prepared for that. I'm patient. Rather make the right move later than the wrong one now.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 17, 2014 14:25:06 GMT -5
James Young and Rodney Hood join Parker in the draft. Jordan Adams (UCLA) stay put. All via Chad Ford
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 17, 2014 15:42:14 GMT -5
jmei got me, I really want Nik Stauskas now.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 17, 2014 15:47:42 GMT -5
The "right time" is the key part of your statement. You don't think it's the right time? I'm not Rondo's biggest fan, but I still think he's an All-Star-caliber player in his prime, and next year is probably the last one where his salary:production ratio is a clear positive. The alternative to win-now is either a total tear-down (read: trade Rondo) or maintaining the status quo for another year and seeing if there are any opportunities next year, neither of which does anything for me. I don't know if it's the right time or not. It really depends. You're a lot higher on some of these guys than I am though. I don't see Rondo-Bradley-green-love-Asik as a championship starting 5. You are way higher on Bradley than I am and I think Jeff Green is a losing ball player. Like him as a guy, hate him as a player or competitor. As far as I'm concerned, he needs to go if you want a winning team.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 17, 2014 15:49:08 GMT -5
On top of it the bench is going to skink and you'll have no money to fill it.
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2014 16:04:58 GMT -5
I just think Bradley and Green are great secondary pieces who look worse than they really are because the current team forces them to be primary shot creators, which they are not. Green in particular can be a monster third option who can shoot and drive against scrambling defenses and is an average-to-better defender. Bradley can be your defensive ace who also spreads the floor and makes smart cuts on offense. Unlike in baseball, basketball requires that the pieces fit together, and I think those pieces fit together really well (I'm also really high on Asik, for what it's worth).
I also think the bench has some potential. Wallace is not as bad as he looked this year and is a useful glue guy. Olynyk can be a low-rent version of Love who quarterbacks the second unit offense. Humphries could re-sign as a cheap backup big who rebounds. Maybe Pressey improves his shot enough to be a backup PG option. They'll also still have a mid-first-round pick and the full mid-level to add depth.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 17, 2014 18:28:24 GMT -5
There are a lot of things to discuss here so to avoid watering things down too much I'll ignore the starting lineup for now and circle back.
I don't think it's possible to have the full Mid-level under your team. If you have Rondo- Green-Bradley-Love-Asik-Wallace plus rest of the roster, you are past full mid-level territory, right?
And Wallace is BRUTAL. Just concede that fact please and don't try to talk yourself into it.
Hump is a good piece, but he's going to make some money. Mid level at least. He's not a veteran minimum guy.
Pressey and KO and even CJ are ok as the 9-10-11 guys.
The other piece is how do you make salaries work to get both Love and Asik? If you use the trade exception for Asik, you can't use it for Love and Love has a big salary. I do not believe the Celtics will be under the cap enough to absorb his salary and Sully+ Bass do not equal Lives contract.
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2014 19:19:48 GMT -5
Salary-matching for Love is not a big problem; this trade would work, for instance. If you did the above trade, the Celtics could have the following salary commitments: Love: $15.7m Rondo: $13m Wallace: $10.1m Green: $9.2m Asik: $8.4m Bradley: $6m (est.) Humphries: $5m (est.) Faverani: $2m Olynyk: $2m Draft pick: $1.4m Pressey: $.5m Johnson: $.5m ...that would get you to $73.8m, which should be below the luxury tax limit ( projected to be $75.7m) and give the Celtics the ability to use the full mid-level. Re: Wallace-- I won't belabor the point, but he's not as useless as a cursory glance at his box score stats might indicate. For instance, his real plus/minus comes out in positive territory, and he ranks between Andrei Kirilenko and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist by that measure. That stat is not the end-all be-all, but Wallace still does enough stuff reasonably well (solid defender, rebounds, can dribble and pass) to be useful in a backup role.
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