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Boston Celtics 2014 Offseason Thread
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Post by jmei on Jul 10, 2014 10:46:01 GMT -5
Salary cap stuff is complicated. In particular, if you go under the cap (which you would need to do to sign Love), you lose the ability to use the full MLE. You still have the Room MLE, but that's only $2.5m or so and thus much less useful. From just back-of-the numbers math, here are estimates salaries/cap holds next summer (assuming Green opts out and the Celtics renounce his Bird Rights, Wallace is somehow moved, and non-guaranteed/second-round picks are waived or moved): Bradley: $8m Faverani: $2.2m Olynyk: $2.2m Sullinger: $2.2m Zeller: $2.6m Smart: $2.8m Young: $1.5m Draft pick: ~$1.5m (Rondo: $19.5m cap hold (150% of his $13m salary)) (Minimum salary charges: $500K x 3 = $1.5m) Total: $44m The 2015-16 salary cap is projected to be $63.2m, so the Celtics should have room to fit Love's contract (which would start at roughly $18m, I believe). But they don't have too much room after that to fill out the roster, and fitting in Love's contract becomes much more difficult if Green opts in or they have to use the stretch provision on Wallace (it would probably entail moving some of the young players). They certainly wouldn't have room to sign someone like Asik or Jordan to be the rim-protecting big guy you'd want next to Love. More broadly, while the above roster plus Love is certainly a playoff contender, is it a title contender? If you squint and guys like Bradley and Zeller and Smart and Young take a step forward, it could be, but it's a roster severely lacking in talent at center and small forward. Of course, there's lots of potential for trades and such, so we obviously shouldn't dismiss the possibility that Ainge finds a way to build a Love-friendly roster, but I'd say the odds are very much against it at the present.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 10, 2014 11:30:06 GMT -5
I know you have to be above the cap to use the full MLE- once you have Love and Rondo signed to contracts, you're probably not under the cap any more, which opens up the full MLE again. But damn it, Chris Forsberg misled the hell out of me, I started dreaming. Still, with all the picks we have, and a certain amount of overlap among those players, if we're making a run at Love I would expect one of Sullinger and Olynyk to be dealt, and in my ideal situation we would try to put together a sign and trade for Deandre Jordan (still pissed we took JR Giddens over him, worst move I've seen the Celtics make since I started following them), use the fact that the clippers lack front court depth right now and package a pick or 2 with one of sullinger/olynyk and get DJ. That is a love friendly roster- rim protection, great perimeter d, and multiple guards that will get out on the break for Love to throw outlet passes too. Fill out that roster with shooters, and that, I think, is a team with a shot at a title, depending on how the rookies and young guys develop. It's also about the best possible roster for him to be on, because that team would have a very long window, given how young Love is for a star and the quantity of picks we have, and would probably still have even with trades that might have to be made. Obviously it's too early to say though, this year's free agency could completely change the outlook. The other thing to note is that next year's draft is very big-man heavy, including some excellent shot blockers. I'd love to get Willie Cauley-Stein with the clips pick next year, and he'd play off the bat on the strength of athleticism and shot blocking alone
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 10, 2014 13:17:41 GMT -5
The goal is to create a Championship team not a playoff team. We can be patient and enjoy watching the process as well as a great young coach and young players develop. Best case scenario is the young guys develop and we can sign Love and resign Rondo next offseason and keep the picks. We'd have a great team with a ton of first round picks to use to trade or just keep fueling the roster with good cheap players. This is literally exactly what I said... I don't know how you think we do that without using the stretch on Wallace though. And yea plenty of teams will have the cap space to sign Love next offseason, but how many of them are attractive, or as attractive as Boston? Most of the real contenders have capped themselves out for the foreseeable future, and other teams don't have the kind of front office track record as us. Maybe Miami if the big 3 break up, but then it's only attractive cause it's Miami. Apart from them, where do you think Love would go over Boston, particularly if Rondo is still here? Also, with the amount of cap space they're likely to have next year, they could give Love his max deal and still have several mill in cap space, likely even with Rondo's cap hold. Then they re-sign him, use the MLE and room exceptions to fill out roster space. If we have to deal picks to get other teams to eat salary for us, so be it- it's worth it to get 2 star players on the same roster with a bunch of young talent. The stretch provision sounds nice and all but you're then clogging part of your cap for 3 seasons instead of 1. Danny probably cannot make enough moves next year to make the team a Championship team. Maybe he can, he did it once, but that's unlikely. It's possible the Celtics land Love via free agency, but you need to stop trying to pretend Boston is "desirable" to NBA free agents. It's not, never has been. You can come up with the laundry list of reasons why it should be, but it's all nonsense until it actually becomes the reality it never has been. We can talk ourselves into Love being different because he's a white guy, but all we're doing is talking ourselves into something that's never been the case before. There's a first for everything but we shouldn't talk about it like it's likely to happen.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 10, 2014 13:29:51 GMT -5
I know you have to be above the cap to use the full MLE- once you have Love and Rondo signed to contracts, you're probably not under the cap any more, which opens up the full MLE again. But damn it, Chris Forsberg misled the hell out of me, I started dreaming. Still, with all the picks we have, and a certain amount of overlap among those players, if we're making a run at Love I would expect one of Sullinger and Olynyk to be dealt, and in my ideal situation we would try to put together a sign and trade for Deandre Jordan (still pissed we took JR Giddens over him, worst move I've seen the Celtics make since I started following them), use the fact that the clippers lack front court depth right now and package a pick or 2 with one of sullinger/olynyk and get DJ. That is a love friendly roster- rim protection, great perimeter d, and multiple guards that will get out on the break for Love to throw outlet passes too. Fill out that roster with shooters, and that, I think, is a team with a shot at a title, depending on how the rookies and young guys develop. It's also about the best possible roster for him to be on, because that team would have a very long window, given how young Love is for a star and the quantity of picks we have, and would probably still have even with trades that might have to be made. Obviously it's too early to say though, this year's free agency could completely change the outlook. The other thing to note is that next year's draft is very big-man heavy, including some excellent shot blockers. I'd love to get Willie Cauley-Stein with the clips pick next year, and he'd play off the bat on the strength of athleticism and shot blocking alone I love the enthusiasm and positive outlook, but the Clippers most likely are not trading Deandre Jordan and if they do it won't be for Draft picks. They are trying to be title contenders, not take a step back when Chris Paul is in his Prime. Any deal where they are taking a 1st round pick back is by definition worsening their NBA roster. Also, the Clippers pick will be lower in the first round. You can't expect to get an NBA ready big man that late who doesn't have medical issues. Not trying to be a jerk, just trying to keep this realistic. Rebuilds take time to do right. People need to understand that. Yes, we could get lucky and Danny is doing everything possible to position the team to take advantage should that opportunity come, but the worst thing he can do is force something. Love isn't a force move, but it's not all that realistic right now either.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 11, 2014 0:52:15 GMT -5
Cauley Stein is a junior who's going to lose playing time to the large number of other really good big men on that Kentucky team- its not unrealistic to think that, in a draft heavy on bigs, he would fall to the late 1st. Deandre Jordan is a free agent after next season on a capped out team- they might be able to fit a new deal for him into that team, but I'm really not sure about it. Obviously I'm being optimistic, but that's what we should all be doing I think- it's clear Danny is doing everything he can to make a big deal and accelerate the process- doesn't mean he's going to force anything.
You need to stop thinking that all NBA free agents are looking for the same thing. They're not. Kevin Love isn't Melo, with a wife on reality TV pushing him to a big market. He's not from NY or LA- and he's clearly considering Boston. That has nothing to do with him being white, in my view- its cause he came here for a weekend after making it clear that he wants out of Minnesota, despite having no real reason to be here. Thats the reason I think he's different- although (and I could be wrong here) didn't KG waive a no trade to come to Boston and play with Pierce? That's really not too different from coming here in free agency And I haven't presented a laundry list of reasons Boston is "desirable" to all free agents, or even a real list of reasons it would be desirable to Love. The point is, Boston is not Cleveland, or Minny, or Detroit. It's a major city, with notoriously devoted fans and one of the 2 most storied franchises in NBA history- its not undesirable, which you seem to be dead set on denying.
Look, I don't really care which path the C's take to rebuilding, the draft or free agency or trades- i'm just constructing a scenario, which I think is plausible, for accelerating that process. I'd put the likelihood of something similar happening somewhere between 5-10%, but it's definitely not impossible. We have the pieces to do all of these things- they may not be likely, but they're certainly possible, and if I were Ainge, that's the scenario I'm trying to make happen, because there aren't any other ways that make sense to build a title contender before Rondo leaves and we have to effectively start from scratch again, albeit with a ton of picks. I'm not saying this is going to happen, but stop telling me it won't, because neither you nor me nor anyone outside of Kevin Love can say that with any certainty until about a year from now. If there's anything I've said that's factually incorrect and you know it, go ahead and tell me, I'd be glad to know it, but otherwise, let me dream, and stop telling me how unlikely it is, cause I know already (except Cauley-Stein falling- did you watch Kentucky this year/have you looked at their incoming recruits? he's losing a lot of minutes this year no matter what, and I doubt he'd go any higher than mid-1st next year anyway unless he adds a jumper and a post game, and that seems unlikely, cause he's shown no signs so far)
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 11, 2014 7:02:07 GMT -5
So I'm not saying Cauley-Stein won't fall, I'm saying big men who fall don't step in and contribute in a big way right away (or even a medium way). Heck very few rookies regardless of where they are drafted do that.
That's fine to dream. I told you I like the enthusiasm.
Regarding, Jordan besides him being an unlikely get, I don't really want him. The more I think about Rondo/Love the more I wonder how good a fit they are together. Would Jordan and his lack of an offensive game and crappy FT shooting to well with Rondo and his crappt FT shooting and limited offense? 2 of your top 3 having these issues concerns me. You can only afford so many poor FT shooters... Good FT shooting was a big time part of the Celts championship team. They were money at the line overall. Rondo and Perk weren't but they were low men on the totum pole. I think they would need a wing player who can score more than Jordan. They would need D, but should try to find it cheaper... Not easy, but you're not winning with Rondo/Jordan as 2 of your top 3 IMO
You need Rondo to get Love and if you get Love as a big you do need a defensive big man to help. Smart maybe better than Rondo longterm because of his D and FT shooting, but he's not attracting a Love.... A Love/Jordan front court would be nice if paired with a good all around scorer at the 1, 2 or 3.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 11, 2014 7:27:14 GMT -5
I'm back on board the slow build train (mostly, bc I think Love is unattainable, not bc I'm worried about the fit). I would hold onto Rondo to start the season (Rondo/Bradley to start; Smart/Thornton to back up). We've seen a healthy Rondo playing without the Big 3 be a 20ppg scorer for reasonable stretches. If he can build up some value early (pre-deadline ideally since his value may decrease again as you get closer to his free agency).
In the meantime, I'd look for takers for Bogan's salary (with the latter, maybe it's someone looking to get a little more cap room for a complementary player next to their star - get another asset in return). Trading Bass would also free up playing time for Zeller/Sully/KO/ and maybe another big (unless you're going with Vitor).
Draft Picks are great but our "big move" may not happen until some of these young guys step up and become better assets.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 11, 2014 9:32:36 GMT -5
So I'm not saying Cauley-Stein won't fall, I'm saying big men who fall don't step in and contribute in a big way right away (or even a medium way). Heck very few rookies regardless of where they are drafted do that. That's fine to dream. I told you I like the enthusiasm. Regarding, Jordan besides him being an unlikely get, I don't really want him. The more I think about Rondo/Love the more I wonder how good a fit they are together. Would Jordan and his lack of an offensive game and crappy FT shooting to well with Rondo and his crappt FT shooting and limited offense? 2 of your top 3 having these issues concerns me. You can only afford so many poor FT shooters... Good FT shooting was a big time part of the Celts championship team. They were money at the line overall. Rondo and Perk weren't but they were low men on the totum pole. I think they would need a wing player who can score more than Jordan. They would need D, but should try to find it cheaper... Not easy, but you're not winning with Rondo/Jordan as 2 of your top 3 IMO You need Rondo to get Love and if you get Love as a big you do need a defensive big man to help. Smart maybe better than Rondo longterm because of his D and FT shooting, but he's not attracting a Love.... A Love/Jordan front court would be nice if paired with a good all around scorer at the 1, 2 or 3. Yea but Jordan's not your 3rd option on offense. On Cauley-Stein, that's not a legitimate statement at all for 2 reasons- 1)Look at guys like Gorgui Dieng and Jordan actually- Dieng was a late first, Jordan a mid-2nd- both offered useful contributions in their 1st years. 2) cauley-stein posted block numbers on par with Nerlens Noel and Anthony Davis- he just doesn't have their offensive game. Just cause he gets drafted in the late 20s doesn't mean he'd forget how to block shots or rebound, although it's fair to say we couldn't rely on him being a really significant contributor as a rookie The fit question is somewhat fair, but we're building a solid guard rotation behind/with rondo, and if we're concerned about late game free throw shooting, we would likely have Olynyk/Zeller to replace Jordan late in games for that. I'm also optimistic on James Young, although I wouldn't expect him to be a good scorer necessarily by next year. But the thing is, rondo and Love gets you into the playoffs in the East, and probably wins you the atlantic, so you're a top-4 seed, which gives you a pretty solid chance of moving on. And that's before considering that Rondo seriously elevates his game in the playoffs/big time games. Once you have those 2 as your core, you can build around them. I don't even think you need a 3rd "good all around scorer"- I think you need shooters to spot up around rondo/Love pick and rolls/pick and pops, and on the perimeter to take kick outs off Rondo drives and teams double teaming Love in the post. Right now, shooting is the thing we lack, but it's not too difficult to find guys that can shoot, and we already have a couple in Young and Bradley. Also, Rubio and Love coexisted pretty well, and Rubio is really basically a poor mans rondo without the athleticism and rebounding. Rondo might actually be a better shooter too, shocking as that seems. I think as long as we have 2 guys who can knock down open 3's around Love and Rondo on the floor most of the time, they'd fit really well- great ball movement for sure anyway, and Rondo and Smart will be on the ball most of the time, so depending on what exactly you mean by a good all around scorer, I'm not sure we need one. If you're talking about a guy who can knock down jumpers, put the ball on the floor to beat close-outs and finish at the rim, and move well without the ball, then sure, I'd agree. But if you mean much more than that, I don't know that they do
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Post by jmei on Jul 11, 2014 9:52:23 GMT -5
Neither Jordan nor Dieng offered the sort of production in their first year that you're suggesting (Jordan played in 53 games and averaged 14.5 mpg; Dieng played in 60 and averaged 13.6 mpg). The only reason Jordan got even that much playing time was that the 08-09 Clippers were one of the worst teams in the league, while Dieng only started getting major playing time when the Timberwolves gave up on the season. The better comp would be someone like Steven Adams, who offered significant production for a playoff contender in his rookie year. But he's the exception, not the rule, and you'd still need a starting-caliber center to complement him, and not a lot of money to spend on one.
I do think they'd need a wing scorer, but a guy like Jeff Green or Afflalo or Deng would be fine enough to fit that role. He doesn't need to be a focal point on offense, just good enough to create some shots when the defense is tilted away from him.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 11, 2014 10:38:10 GMT -5
Neither Jordan nor Dieng offered the sort of production in their first year that you're suggesting (Jordan played in 53 games and averaged 14.5 mpg; Dieng played in 60 and averaged 13.6 mpg). The only reason Jordan got even that much playing time was that the 08-09 Clippers were one of the worst teams in the league, while Dieng only started getting major playing time when the Timberwolves gave up on the season. The better comp would be someone like Steven Adams, who offered significant production for a playoff contender in his rookie year. But he's the exception, not the rule, and you'd still need a starting-caliber center to complement him, and not a lot of money to spend on one. I do think they'd need a wing scorer, but a guy like Jeff Green or Afflalo or Deng would be fine enough to fit that role. He doesn't need to be a focal point on offense, just good enough to create some shots when the defense is tilted away from him. Whether or not Jordan was playing on a bad team doesn't change the fact that that type of player would be a useful guy to have next to Kevin Love, even if only for ~15mpg. Dieng's season long numbers are a little misleading too- when he got actually playing time towards the end of the season (next to Love, which is clearly going to help a young big man by the way) he was very productive. Also, point out to me where I set a baseline level for productivity- I didn't, I looked at Jordan's stats before including him, and saw that he gave the clips 4 pts, 4 boards, and better than a block per game in limited minutes. That's a useful rotation big next to Love any way you slice it. He also was far rawer than the guy I was suggesting (Cauley-Stein), and was an acknowledged project pick. Furthermore, if you look at Diengs last 2 months, he was extremely productive when he started getting more than 5-10 mpg- he averaged about 12 and 11, with 2 blocks a game for the last month of the season, and was very good for a few weeks before that as well, once Pekovic got hurt and the wolves actually played him. Didn't even think about Adams, although he went 12th (would've been later in a draft that wasn't arguably one of the worst of all time, but still), and he also has far less experience than Cauley-Stein will have had by the time he enters the draft. I'd certainly concede the need for a guy like a Green or Afflalo or Deng on a team like that, but they'd be a final piece of the puzzle- and, given all out assets, not overly difficult to acquire, although mid-tier guys like that seem to always be overpaid now
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Post by texs31 on Jul 11, 2014 11:26:35 GMT -5
LeBron back to Cleveland. Per SI (directly from LJ's words)
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Post by jmei on Jul 11, 2014 11:33:55 GMT -5
LeBron back to Cleveland. Per SI (directly from LJ's words) Holy ****balls. I didn't think he had the guts.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 11, 2014 11:40:28 GMT -5
On to the next series of trying to get hints from every word (or lack of word) . . . He didn't say boo about Andrew Wiggins.
Let the next level of speculation begin . . .
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Post by jmei on Jul 11, 2014 11:46:36 GMT -5
If they trade Wiggins+ for Love, that team would be a monster offensively. That roster doesn't have any rim protectors (Varejao is more of a below-the-rim guy at this point), but it's not like Miami did either. Spo was a very underrated coach, though-- he implemented the perfect defensive system that maximized all their guys' strengths. Can David Blatt adjust to the NBA quickly enough to put to put together a title contender next year?
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Post by jmei on Jul 11, 2014 11:57:12 GMT -5
By the way, what a terrific way of announcing the move. That article was wonderfully written, and I believed every word of it. You really do get the sense that his connection with the area is genuine and powerful.
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,860
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 11, 2014 13:22:57 GMT -5
I believe every word of it, too.
But the big thing a lot of people seem to be missing is that Cleveland's roster for the next few years is a lot more promising than the Heat's. Dwyane Wade is about 60% of what he was just two years ago, and he's probably another two years away from being a steamy turd. And Bosh as the #2 is a flat-out disaster. Cleveland with Kyrie and (presumably) Love (or even Wiggins) is a hell of a lot more appealing.
It really is amazing how the Celtics have been screwed in every way imaginable by getting the 6th pick in the draft. Not only did they miss out on the elite talent, but they were probably two picks too low from having been able to complete a Love trade before the draft. Methinks a Rondo trade is all but a certainty at this point (if it wasn't already).
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 11, 2014 17:36:05 GMT -5
Well, Chris Bosh just got $118 million and Jordan freakin' Hill got $9 mil/year.
Suddenly, those bad Celtics contracts look a little more tradable...
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 11, 2014 17:45:32 GMT -5
It was a believable story and I'm sure he didn't write it himself meaning it's general message should be believed but I sure it's more dramatic than he truly feels to his core.
On to Love. I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure Cleveland could have the cap space to outright sign Love as a free agent next year. If I'm Lebron, I'm talking to Love and telling him to stay patient in Minny or wherever he's dealt and asking the FO NOT to trade for him. Next year is a chance to win a Title but it's also a development season. Lebron should not want the roster gutted to get Love when they can keep Wiggins and other assets and sign Love. They'd have to waive Hayward (non guaranteed), renounce bird rights on Big V, but can still sign him back on a low money deal, and possibly trade or waive Bennet (non guaranteed), which is unprecedented for a number 1 pick but he was brutal and it's a unique circumstance.
Cleveland would be a powerhouse if they can pull that off.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 11, 2014 17:47:45 GMT -5
One under the radar story is the Nets owner being determined to get the teams net worth up. To do so they have to stay under the tax line in 2015-2016. This jeans they will likely suck that year considering who they are committed to salary wise. Celtics own their 2016 first unprotected. Say hello to a very high pick. www.spotrac.com/nba/brooklyn-nets/cap/2015/The have 74M committed to 7 players. Almost 69 of it goes to Lopez (good and young but cannot stay healthy), Williams (will be a shell of himself if he's not already), Joe Johnson (old and in steep decline), Jarrett Jack (was awful last year is older and will suck in 2). The other 3 guys are young with so so upside and non guaranteed contracts. They won't have room to maneuver and won't have picks to trade to add players if they could find a taker for one of those contracts. I'm treating that 2016 Nets pick like a giant piece of gold if I'm Danny.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2014 10:30:44 GMT -5
So I was reading Bill Simmons article on Grantland and he made a comment about Bosh that he had stopped banging bodies a year ago. After my initial reaction "when did he ever bang bodies?". It got me thinking, Besides Tim Duncan and Shaq, who are the big guys who actually play in the low post and "protect the rim" who continue to bang and do the dirty work after getting paid big? These guys get such big time life altering money these days that it's almost impossible for them to not get softer unless they have that crazy competitive DNA that only a few have. Almost every pro athlete is somewhat competitive but there's that next level. Don't buy into the notion that they are all competitive or they couldn't make it to this level because that's just not true.
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,860
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 12, 2014 11:39:55 GMT -5
So I was reading Bill Simmons article on Grantland and he made a comment about Bosh that he had stopped banging bodies a year ago. After my initial reaction "when did he ever bang bodies?". It got me thinking, Besides Tim Duncan and Shaq, who are the big guys who actually play in the low post and "protect the rim" who continue to bang and do the dirty work after getting paid big? These guys get such big time life altering money these days that it's almost impossible for them to not get softer unless they have that crazy competitive DNA that only a few have. Almost every pro athlete is somewhat competitive but there's that next level. Don't buy into the notion that they are all competitive or they couldn't make it to this level because that's just not true. He's never been a full-time interior player, but he did show a willingness to play inside when his team needed it in the 2012 and 2013 playoffs. In 2012, his rebounding numbers against Boston and OKC once he came back from injury were one of the underrated storylines of the Heat's first championship.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jul 12, 2014 23:39:15 GMT -5
Spo was a very underrated coach, though-- he implemented the perfect defensive system that maximized all their guys' strengths. Can David Blatt adjust to the NBA quickly enough to put to put together a title contender next year? Will it matter? I mean, LBJ won 2 with Miami on the strength of a hyper athletic team, but Spoestra ran the most simplistic and downright dumb offensive sets this side of Vinny Del Negro. And while his D was smartly designed, even Mike D'Antoni couldn't screw that part on a team with LeBron. Comes with the perks of having the best player on the planet, I guess. I'm only not picking Cleveland because 1) LOL Cleveland and 2) Kyrie has been trending in the wrong direction for the past 2 seasons and outside of him who can step up?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 13, 2014 1:55:10 GMT -5
I kinda like Cleveland. I'll be rooting for them over the Bulls, OKC, GS and Spurs for sure. But what happened with Chris Bosh and Houston? That would've been pretty cool to see Howard, Bosh and Harden all on the same team out there.
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Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2014 7:26:22 GMT -5
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wcp3
Veteran
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 13, 2014 8:13:13 GMT -5
If you don't think Spo is a good coach, I don't know what to tell ya.
Also, how has Kyrie been trending in the wrong direction?
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