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Post by grandsalami on Jun 4, 2014 16:11:53 GMT -5
Having passed on Cespedes, Puig and Abreu, nobody should hold their breath for Sox ownership to sign any Cuban player to a big chunk of change. What's the most we've dropped on one Cuban player? - $8.25 over four years for Iglesias? At the mere mention of Fidel Castro, John Henry morphs into Scrooge McDuck. Puig should never be lumped in with these players… Correct me if I am wrong, but the Dodgers were laughed at, when we found out the amount of $$ they gave him, and almost everyone thought it was an overpay
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Post by jmei on Jun 4, 2014 16:38:34 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jun 4, 2014 16:39:26 GMT -5
played with Abreu and Puig and 1 year with Cespedes. That must mean he's good, right?
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 4, 2014 16:48:57 GMT -5
I have no idea whether Carbonell is any good. But the Sox just don't have the track record that I would say something like "in the Hoodie we trust" here either.
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Post by godot on Jun 4, 2014 17:16:03 GMT -5
JH will only go as far as he wants to get these guys, not what the market price may be. I wonder if they realize the impact of a big stud on a team. The should watching Papi and now X-Man, but sometimes seem like they are more enamored with players that fit into their system, more the role players, and see the stud as just another piece in their creation.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 4, 2014 17:23:39 GMT -5
Having passed on Cespedes, Puig and Abreu, nobody should hold their breath for Sox ownership to sign any Cuban player to a big chunk of change. What's the most we've dropped on one Cuban player? - $8.25 over four years for Iglesias? At the mere mention of Fidel Castro, John Henry morphs into Scrooge McDuck. Its been stated before, but this isn't a fair statement at all. For one, only three teams signed these players leaving 27 other teams with owners that by your account morph into Scrooge McDuck. Second, reports indicate we were in the top 5 of the bidding for Abreu. So its not like the Sox haven't offered over 8.25 mill, they've likely offered somewhere in the ballpark of 60 mill.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 4, 2014 17:29:21 GMT -5
Pretty sure Cespedes is a FA again after 2015 season. He signed a 4 and out deal with Oakland. No 6y before FA.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 4, 2014 17:41:55 GMT -5
I would like Brentz to get a shot when he gets off the DL. I mean they have given everyone else one. At least now they know what they have moving foward. They basically need to rebuild that outfield. You cant count on Victorino even though he has one more year. This spot is the only dissapointment in the minors.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2014 17:46:22 GMT -5
I think we need 3 pieces to make a run at the playoffs. We might have one of them.
1. Need a LH bat to put in a platoon with Gomes. Wouldn't complain if we go for more than a platoon player. But, I'll take the lh bat.
2. I'm ok with JBJ in CF. Love the defense and I think he'll hit enough to bat 9th. But, I want another OF instead of Carp. I want to be able to pinch-hit for him if we're behind and the situaion calls for it. I'd like a pretty good player here. Might sub for Victorino now and then and also for JBJ.
3. We should have a rh bat as our back-up inf. Can sit Drew against lefties and slide Xander over to short for the beginning of the game. Laughable, if anyone thinks this will mess him up. WMB plays 3b if he appears to have straightened himself out in AAA and is only going to play against tough lefties. Hate to say it Will, but I'm also taking you out in about the 8th if we're up and their lefty is out. Putting Drew back in at shortstop.
Obviously, some egos have to be checked at the door here. But, it's all about winning. Holt's my 5th bench guy for the playoffs and he'll be available when rosters expand to. Sending him down when I feel WMB is ready.
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Post by taftreign on Jun 4, 2014 18:07:26 GMT -5
It wouldn't be an answer until the 2016 season but I can see Ben unsurprisingly zeroing in on Jason Heyward. Sabermetricians tend to value him more than some of the traditionalists and he can pretty easily be a 4 WAR right fielder. He will be a 26 year old free agent which fits the youth criteria and Ben should be willing to go 6 years on him as he brings solid defensive value as well. Heyward has also been hitting leadoff this season so he would provide additional lineup options. Perhaps Atlanta decides this summer they won't or can't resign him and decide to go ahead and move him for a few prospects instead of a supplemental pick. Is he valuable enough to trade pieces for this offseason or do you take your chances he reaches the market and you can land him? To me he is the most obvious player meeting the criteria of what Boston is looking for and the timing works well with Victorino theoretically being healthy for one last year in 2015. What do you think it would take to land Heyward on the free market AAV?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 4, 2014 18:49:10 GMT -5
JH will only go as far as he wants to get these guys, not what the market price may be. I wonder if they realize the impact of a big stud on a team. The should watching Papi and now X-Man, but sometimes seem like they are more enamored with players that fit into their system, more the role players, and see the stud as just another piece in their creation. Both of those guys were acquired for cheap so I'm not sure that's a great example. The Red Sox want elite players, every team does. It's about the acquisition cost. This ownership has paid large costs for elite players before.
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Post by jmei on Jun 4, 2014 19:14:53 GMT -5
The Puig case is probably instructive on what we as fans should in the future believe when all that is credited is "an unnamed general manager" or "baseball people" or what has "been heard." To their credit, the Dodgers accurately assessed the player. In retrospect, one does wonder though whether the Dodgers did so with additional information and/or access which other teams were not privy to. I don't think the Puig situation was that complicated. Because he wasn't in baseball shape, his workouts in Mexico were very hit and miss. If you were evaluating him on those alone, you came off with a mixed-to-negative reaction, because while he flashed some power and athleticism, his swing was rusty and he was fat. Considering the consensus that quickly arose, I don't think those sources were lying or awful player evaluators or anything. It's just that the Dodgers took a chance on upside-- that once he got back in shape, the tools would still be there, even though he hadn't played organized baseball in close to a year-and-a-half. That was a pretty major risk that they took (one made easier by ownership's seemingly endless willingness to spend), and one that ultimately paid off, but it was a high-risk-high-reward gamble at the time, and one that I don't fault the front office for not getting involved in.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 4, 2014 19:29:58 GMT -5
played with Abreu and Puig and 1 year with Cespedes. That must mean he's good, right?
Nope. Just implying the cuban govt thought he was good enough among that company to start. For all I know he could be Jackie Bradley Jr II with more speed.
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Post by jmei on Jun 4, 2014 21:02:46 GMT -5
Well, that's just the thing, not all the Cuban defectors have succeeded. Puig is a stud, but Cespedes has settled in as a good-but-not great outfielder whose plate discipline issues offset his considerable raw tools (over his career, he's been roughly a three win per season player, which means he's not outperforming his contract by much). Abreu has looked terrific so far, but he's also striking out five times more than he's walking, and it's still unclear whether his success is going to be sustainable. Meanwhile, you have big-money signings like Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (originally reported at 6/$60m, downgraded to 3/$12m after a wonky physical), Alexander Guerrero (4/$28m), and Erisbel Arruebarrena (5/$25m) not looking so hot, at least so far.
Remember, for better or worse, this ownership group wants to stay under the luxury tax limit, which means that every dollar you give to a Cuban defector is a dollar that can't go to a domestic free agent. That opportunity cost means you can't just throw money at upside without considering how good each player reasonably projects to be. Just because past guys have been great so far doesn't mean the next guy is going to be similarly great. The most you can ask is that the front office does as much research as possible on each player and decides how much it makes sense to bid. Based on the reports of their being involved in the Abreu bidding and interested in Carbonell, that looks like exactly what they're doing.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2014 21:50:59 GMT -5
I'm glad we re-upped Mike Napoli. Making Abreu irrelevant to me. I like to see us reward players who played an immense role in winning a world championship. Instead of an unknown. Napoli approaches hitting the way we like. Works the count and sees a lot pitches. Produced. Important for team chemistry to keep guys who help you win. In case you haven't read between the lines. The boys are a bit chaffed that we didn't even try to keep Ellsbury(I wouldn't go 7) and low-balled Lester.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 4, 2014 22:08:01 GMT -5
Well, that's just the thing, not all the Cuban defectors have succeeded. Puig is a stud, but Cespedes has settled in as a good-but-not great outfielder whose plate discipline issues offset his considerable raw tools (over his career, he's been roughly a three win per season player, which means he's not outperforming his contract by much). Abreu has looked terrific so far, but he's also striking out five times more than he's walking, and it's still unclear whether his success is going to be sustainable. Meanwhile, you have big-money signings like Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (originally reported at 6/$60m, downgraded to 3/$12m after a wonky physical), Alexander Guerrero (4/$28m), and Erisbel Arruebarrena (5/$25m) not looking so hot, at least so far. Remember, for better or worse, this ownership group wants to stay under the luxury tax limit, which means that every dollar you give to a Cuban defector is a dollar that can't go to a domestic free agent. That opportunity cost means you can't just throw money at upside without considering how good each player reasonably projects to be. Just because past guys have been great so far doesn't mean the next guy is going to be similarly great. The most you can ask is that the front office does as much research as possible on each player and decides how much it makes sense to bid. Based on the reports of their being involved in the Abreu bidding and interested in Carbonell, that looks like exactly what they're doing. Point taken. Then again they will be shedding around $70M in contracts after this year. Other than Lester, what high dollar "domestic" FAs do you think they'll be buying? Because when it comes to positions of need besides pitcher, this list ain't pretty or filled with high priced potential Red Sox talent: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2015-mlb-free-agents.htmlOF looks particularly bleak assuming options are picked up on Markakis and Span, unless one thinks Milky is worth 4 years at $10M a year (I don't). Catcher also bleak. OF is an organizational position of need. I've never seen Carbonell play, and he could be a dog, but if they think Carbonell can be a league ave or better LF or CF then they should take the dive and pay him like one, esp at 23. They give up cash on a 4 year commitment, keep the prospects to deal for more positions of need or fill MLB slots and guess what - they still have a ton of salary room next year and MORE after 2015. Whereas OF prospects who project to be MLB ave or better - not so much.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2014 22:12:25 GMT -5
I'd give Melky the Victorino deal as things stand now. Planning on Mookie in CF next year and JBJ our 4th OF. Melky has appeared to have figured out MLB's testing thing. Even if he hasn't, his salary doesn't count towards luxury tax if he's suspended for a year.
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Post by jmei on Jun 4, 2014 22:22:23 GMT -5
There's always a way to spend money efficiently, including by picking up salary in trades. But I see at least a few mid-range outfielders I'd be interested in (Chris Denorfia, Seth Smith, Michael Cuddyer, etc.), and a few eight-figure deals add up quickly.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 4, 2014 22:25:07 GMT -5
I think the Sox could look to the international market (Cuba) and take a risk on one of the defectors (if they are indeed defecting). I don't these guys are fetching much more than $11 million/year, so I think with the proper scouting due diligence they do, I don't see a problem with them taking a chance.
But if that doesn't happen as I suspect it won't, their best options are to either make a deal for a short-termer that wouldn't cost much in prospects or more likely, simply hope that their players play better.
Nava is not going to have sparkling numbers in 2014, but perhaps, if spotted correctly, he could hit .280 from here on out with a good OBP and be a good platoon-mate with Jonny Gomes. They have to hope that Bradley gets better as a hitter as the year progresses the way that Trot Nixon did in 1999 as he struggled around the Mendoza line heading into July that year before finishing the year with a respectable .270 BA. They have to hope that Victorino gets healthy and produces.
I don't like the odds of standing pat, but they might have to do that.
Other than that one realistic possibility could be that come August 1st, the outfield becomes Victorino in RF, Bradley in CF, and Mookie Betts in LF or some variation of that alignment.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 5, 2014 5:50:11 GMT -5
Other than that one realistic possibility could be that come August 1st, the outfield becomes Victorino in RF, Bradley in CF, and Mookie Betts in LF or some variation of that alignment. Holt LF, Mookie CF, Victorino RF.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 5, 2014 8:58:02 GMT -5
I am curious why Nava supporters believe he still is the hitter he was last year. Obviously he's having some problems, but I say run him out there and let him work it out. Slumps happen, messed up mechanics happen. He's likely to figure it out and bounce back, probably sooner rather than later - when is the big question that I don't think can really be known (season long slumps do happen), but Nava was productive both in 2012 (when healthy) and 2013, and there's no reason to be especially pessimistic about his prognosis. I wouldn't mind giving Brentz a shot, when he's healthy and if there's still a need. He's done some good things at Pawtucket this season, he's on the 40-man, and a taste of the Majors might be helpful. But he's not a solution to anything this year. The solution is mostly patience: 1. Faith in Jackie Bradley, Jr improving in the 2nd half 2. Hope for Nava-jo to get back in form 3. Love Shane-O back to health And assuming 2 & 3 continue to be issues to one degree or another (JBJ at worst provides great fielding), unleash the Mookie. Obviously a trade is an option, and the OF picture is open & flexible enough to add a short or long term option at either corner.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2014 9:09:50 GMT -5
I am curious why Nava supporters believe he still is the hitter he was last year. Hmm. Could it be the small sample of PAs, which, until last night was 57 vs. RHP? Or maybe it's the .143 BABIP over that same period along with a 6.6% BB rate/10% K rate? - and especially when all that is compared to Gomes' stats vs RHP, if only in the same small sample. Besides, isn't this the place where you get splashed with "small samples are irrelevant" holy water when you walk in? At the very least give him 100-120 or so ABs vs RHP to see if it looks more like he's a victim of bad luck, bad approach or bad swing.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 5, 2014 9:12:21 GMT -5
Interesting that Mike Hazen cancelled a radio appearance this am because he had to fly to Detroit to meet the team.
A couple of questions- does he have a role in the draft? If so, you'd think they already figured out the logistics for draft night, so this would be a surprising change. Two, if he has little role in the draft, but on the organization development, does that suggest anything about a possible trade, and Ben wanting to have direct access to answer questions (would those be about the minors or major league talent?)
Or am I reading too much into this?
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2014 9:14:57 GMT -5
?@portlandseadogs 1h Mookie Betts hit a home run in the 11th inning last night to lift the Pawtucket Red Sox to an 8-7 victory. fb.me/3AJjpCqA1OK, he's ready.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 5, 2014 9:22:21 GMT -5
At the very least give him 100-120 or so ABs vs RHP to see if it looks more like he's a victim of bad luck, bad approach or bad swing. While it's very difficult to answer that statistically from a small sample, Nava / coaching staff likely know the cause, and reportedly, according to Nava anyway, he is, or was, off mechanically. And maybe has had below average luck on balls in play lately.
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