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6/16-6/18 Red Sox vs. Twins Series Thread
Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Jun 16, 2014 20:41:10 GMT -5
whew.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2014 20:43:47 GMT -5
I'd love to see RDLR and Workman stick in this rotation.
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Post by marrcus on Jun 16, 2014 20:44:32 GMT -5
Biggest SO of the season. If Twins had scored big in 8th--and Miller used for 1 batter previously-- the walls would have come tumblin' down.
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Post by soxcentral on Jun 16, 2014 20:55:41 GMT -5
Honest question. Can anyone give a reason why Buchholz and Doubront should get their rotation spots back? I mean, we all know they are going to but is there any justification for it at this point, other than they were there first?
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Post by bsout2 on Jun 16, 2014 20:56:45 GMT -5
This offense is amazing!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 16, 2014 20:59:03 GMT -5
I'd love to see RDLR and Workman stick in this rotation. And Ranaudo.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jun 16, 2014 20:59:10 GMT -5
It's remarkable that even in what could very well be a lost season, Koji is probably having the best year for a closer ever. Let's not lose sight of that.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Jun 16, 2014 21:00:31 GMT -5
Honest question. Can anyone give a reason why Buchholz and Doubront should get their rotation spots back? I mean, we all know they are going to but is there any justification for it at this point, other than they were there first? I think you have to be persistent with Buchholz because there's always a chance that he morphs back into the best pitcher in baseball for two or three months. His inconsistency and inability to stay healthy is maddening, but you'd hate to give up on him only to see him figure things out somewhere else. As for Doubront, I'm with you on that one. I'd rather see him in the bullpen unless some other team believes in him as a starter.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jun 16, 2014 21:01:04 GMT -5
I'd love to see RDLR and Workman stick in this rotation. And Ranaudo. And Keith Couch.
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Jun 16, 2014 21:03:39 GMT -5
Nice win.
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Post by redsox4242 on Jun 16, 2014 21:03:42 GMT -5
Uehara the only bright spot this season, he is so good!
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jun 16, 2014 21:10:55 GMT -5
Without Uehara this team should be the worst team.
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2014 21:17:14 GMT -5
Honest question. Can anyone give a reason why Buchholz and Doubront should get their rotation spots back? I mean, we all know they are going to but is there any justification for it at this point, other than they were there first? Because entering the season, both those guys were regarded as mid-rotation options with upside and were coming off 2.5+ fWAR seasons.
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CMF
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Post by CMF on Jun 16, 2014 21:19:06 GMT -5
It's remarkable that even in what could very well be a lost season, Koji is probably having the best year for a closer ever. Let's not lose sight of that. If the Red Sox are sellers at the deadline, I can only imagine how much the Tigers would overpay in a trade for Koji.
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Post by soxcentral on Jun 16, 2014 21:34:48 GMT -5
Honest question. Can anyone give a reason why Buchholz and Doubront should get their rotation spots back? I mean, we all know they are going to but is there any justification for it at this point, other than they were there first? Because entering the season, both those guys were regarded as mid-rotation options with upside and were coming off 2.5+ fWAR seasons. I understand why they began the year in the rotation, but not right now. My point is essentially shouldn't they both have to earn their way back in to the rotation, either by showing the electric stuff that made them so highly regarded before returning to Boston OR by spending a few weeks/months/years in the bullpen and re-earn the right to take the ball every 5th day over 2 younger arms who are currently pitching better than either had at any point this year? Not the main point, but Buchholz' fWAR for 2013 is a bit misleading. He was of course dominant for a great stretch but once again did not hold up physically and let his team down for another 3 months.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 16, 2014 21:38:03 GMT -5
Uehara the only bright spot this season, he is so good! Badenhop says hello: Jon Shestakofsky ?@shesta_Sox 21m Longest relief streaks without an ER in Red Sox history: Koji Uehara, 33.2 in 2013 Dick Radatz, 33.0 in 1963 Burke Badenhop, 30.0 in 2014
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2014 21:39:16 GMT -5
Buchholz we need to get back into shape. We have him next year again at roughly 15 mil. Doubront is more expendable but we have a big interest at the very least in re-establishing his trade value.
I'm thinking we sell off one or maybe two starters at the trade deadline depending on the offers we get and then bring in the youth.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 16, 2014 21:48:16 GMT -5
De La Rosa was awesome. The Red Sox offense was lousy again, and Koji was Koji.
De La Rosa has now had two mediocre starts and two dominating starts. If somehow he could get consistency he could very well be a top of the rotation starter. Such a big if.
It'll be interesting to see how they maneuver the roster as both De La Rosa and Workman are earning the right to stay in Boston.
As far as the trade Koji stuff, I'd much prefer that they find a way to re-sign him. If and when the Sox are competitive in 2015 I can't think of anybody I'd want to close out a game more than Koji.
I get that the idea is to maximize a return for him if he doesn't come back, but honestly I don't expect this guy to fall off a cliff. He knows how to pitch and he's a very smart pitcher.
From a personal standpoint, he is the one closer in the 35 years I've had of being a Red Sox fan, that I truly enjoy watching. It's like watching an artist work. He's truly a joy to watch and as a fan I'd totally miss him, not to mention I'd miss the worry free 9th innings. I mean, 1-0 lead, and I had no worries that the Red Sox would blow the game. Even when Papelbon was at his best, as good as he was, I didn't have that level of confidence that I have in Koji.
Find a way to keep this guy and Lester and Lackey and reboot with a younger team (a more mature Bogaerts) next year and the Sox could very well be very different than they are this year.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 16, 2014 21:48:33 GMT -5
I don't see any reason for Buchholz and Doubront to be lumped together. Buchholz has a history of success, despite periods of inconsistency. He was bad for the first two months of 2014, but not as bad as he was in the first two months of 2012. I think he's earned the right to not lose his spot after those two months. He's frustrating, but sometimes you need to take the bad to get the good.
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Post by soxcentral on Jun 16, 2014 21:56:16 GMT -5
I don't see any reason for Buchholz and Doubront to be lumped together. Buchholz has a history of success, despite periods of inconsistency. He was bad for the first two months of 2014, but not as bad as he was in the first two months of 2012. I think he's earned the right to not lose his spot after those two months. He's frustrating, but sometimes you need to take the bad to get the good. After 2 months? 2007 0.8 WAR in 22 IP 2008 0.8 WAR in 76 IP 2009 1.1 WAR in 92 IP 2010 3.5 WAR in 173 IP 2011 1.1 WAR in 82 IP 2012 1.5 WAR in 189 IP 2013 3.2 WAR in 108 IP 2014 0.2 WAR in 50 IP over close to 1/2 the season That's 1 1/2 seasons of very good pitching, 5 not so good if you include this year, and his 2007 hot start.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 16, 2014 22:08:29 GMT -5
Since the start of the 2012 season Buchholz has an ERA+ of 103 and a FIP- of 97. If I go back further the numbers get better. He's an above average pitcher, he just gets there in a frustrating way.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2014 22:34:13 GMT -5
2007 0.8 1.0 WAR in 22 IP 2008 0.8 -1.2 WAR in 76 IP 2009 1.1 2.0 WAR in 92 IP 2010 3.5 5.6 WAR in 173 IP 2011 1.1 1.9 WAR in 82 IP 2012 1.5 0.9 WAR in 189 IP 2013 3.2 4.3 WAR in 108 IP 2014 0.2 -1.3 WAR in 50 IP over close to 1/2 the season That's 1 1/2 seasons of very good pitching, 5 not so good if you include this year, and his 2007 hot start. Fixed it for you. Repeat: fWAR for pitchers is absolute, indefensible, lazy, intellectually myopic garbage. It's established beyond any doubt that BABIP varies among pitchers and that, furthermore, it's a partial function of FIP. Buchholz is one of the people driving that correlation; when his FIP is good, he has a real BABIP skill that can be proven real by other methodologies, and when his FIP is bad, his BABIP collapses along with it. So there's no excuse for assuming that every pitcher has the same BABIP, rather than trying to estimate what the true BABIP allowed was (as does b-ref). If science proceeded by saying "let's adopt a stance of ignorance whenever we cannot be certain," we'd have no science at all. Buchholz has had one astounding half season, one terrific near-full season, two other excellent half-seasons (the first of which would have been a full season had he been called up), a season (2012) where he was overall so-so, but was actually terrible for a third of a season and terrific for the other two-thirds, plus terrible struggles his rookie year and just now. Starting in 2009, he has consistently been one of the best pitchers in baseball, with two huge, troubling glitches: in both 2011 and 2013 he missed half the season, and came back the next year and was terrible to begin with. He shouldn't be recalled until his mechanics are both fixed (which appears to be the case already) and reasonably consistent (not yet the case), or his rehab time runs out. But assuming that happens, there's no doubt he's one of the five best pitchers in the organization. Which is not that shocking, figuring that a year ago at this time he was the best pitcher in baseball by a wide margin.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 16, 2014 23:04:08 GMT -5
2007 0.8 1.0 WAR in 22 IP 2008 0.8 -1.2 WAR in 76 IP 2009 1.1 2.0 WAR in 92 IP 2010 3.5 5.6 WAR in 173 IP 2011 1.1 1.9 WAR in 82 IP 2012 1.5 0.9 WAR in 189 IP 2013 3.2 4.3 WAR in 108 IP 2014 0.2 -1.3 WAR in 50 IP over close to 1/2 the season That's 1 1/2 seasons of very good pitching, 5 not so good if you include this year, and his 2007 hot start. Fixed it for you. Repeat: fWAR for pitchers is absolute, indefensible, lazy, intellectually myopic garbage. It's established beyond any doubt that BABIP varies among pitchers and that, furthermore, it's a partial function of FIP. Buchholz is one of the people driving that correlation; when his FIP is good, he has a real BABIP skill that can be proven real by other methodologies, and when his FIP is bad, his BABIP collapses along with it. So there's no excuse for assuming that every pitcher has the same BABIP, rather than trying to estimate what the true BABIP allowed was (as does b-ref). If science proceeded by saying "let's adopt a stance of ignorance whenever we cannot be certain," we'd have no science at all. Buchholz has had one astounding half season, one terrific near-full season, two other excellent half-seasons (the first of which would have been a full season had he been called up), a season (2012) where he was overall so-so, but was actually terrible for a third of a season and terrific for the other two-thirds, plus terrible struggles his rookie year and just now. Starting in 2009, he has consistently been one of the best pitchers in baseball, with two huge, troubling glitches: in both 2011 and 2013 he missed half the season, and came back the next year and was terrible to begin with. He shouldn't be recalled until his mechanics are both fixed (which appears to be the case already) and reasonably consistent (not yet the case), or his rehab time runs out. But assuming that happens, there's no doubt he's one of the five best pitchers in the organization. Which is not that shocking, figuring that a year ago at this time he was the best pitcher in baseball by a wide margin.
Yeah Kershaw was better though.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 16, 2014 23:10:29 GMT -5
Fixed it for you. Repeat: fWAR for pitchers is absolute, indefensible, lazy, intellectually myopic garbage. It's established beyond any doubt that BABIP varies among pitchers and that, furthermore, it's a partial function of FIP. Buchholz is one of the people driving that correlation; when his FIP is good, he has a real BABIP skill that can be proven real by other methodologies, and when his FIP is bad, his BABIP collapses along with it. So there's no excuse for assuming that every pitcher has the same BABIP, rather than trying to estimate what the true BABIP allowed was (as does b-ref). If science proceeded by saying "let's adopt a stance of ignorance whenever we cannot be certain," we'd have no science at all. Buchholz has had one astounding half season, one terrific near-full season, two other excellent half-seasons (the first of which would have been a full season had he been called up), a season (2012) where he was overall so-so, but was actually terrible for a third of a season and terrific for the other two-thirds, plus terrible struggles his rookie year and just now. Starting in 2009, he has consistently been one of the best pitchers in baseball, with two huge, troubling glitches: in both 2011 and 2013 he missed half the season, and came back the next year and was terrible to begin with. He shouldn't be recalled until his mechanics are both fixed (which appears to be the case already) and reasonably consistent (not yet the case), or his rehab time runs out. But assuming that happens, there's no doubt he's one of the five best pitchers in the organization. Which is not that shocking, figuring that a year ago at this time he was the best pitcher in baseball by a wide margin.
Yeah Kershaw was better though. They were pretty much equals (at worst) until Buchholz got hurt...Buchholz didn't lose a game until September, while posting similar numbers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2014 23:22:07 GMT -5
Which is not that shocking, figuring that a year ago at this time he was the best pitcher in baseball by a wide margin.
Yeah Kershaw was better though. As of June 8, Clay had a 1.71 ERA versus Kershaw's 1.93, and Clay was pitching in a much tougher run environment and in a considerably better division. Kershaw at that point had a 5.07 Win Probability Added per 32 starts, which is formidable. It was second to Clay's 6.37. So, yes, Clay was the best pitcher in baseball when he got hurt last year, by a wide margin.
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