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Post by telson13 on Sept 2, 2016 2:13:58 GMT -5
I mentioned in another thread the smart move for the Sox would be to have Moncada gain more experience in the minors next season until they are satisfied that he's ready. Call him up and when they feel he's likely up for good, then trade of Shaw but hold onto Shaw until that point in time. Why trade Shaw who could be that above average lefty, cost controlled, experienced, homegrown, core, 20HR backup 3B, 1B, LF, PH, DH. Perhaps Panda would be a better choice. Let's see how he finishes the year I think the big questions are: 1) Who will be playing 1b (and who will DH)?; if Shaw is the best option (if they, say, opt to DH Hanley and not sign a 1b/DH type like Beltran, or Encarnacion, or even Moss), then it makes sense for them to keep him both as 3b and 1b insurance should Moncada struggle and Travis take a full year to come back and build on his minor league time so far, after injury. 2) Can Shaw rebuild value now that his playing time has diminished due to poor performance? He's an above-average defensive 3b, and a roughly average hitter. So, if he's a 2-2.5 WAR player, he probably has more value to the Sox as a placeholder/potential (even if low) breakout candidate than he would to another team in trade. But if he gets back to hitting as he was earlier in the year, he may have significant value in trade as an above-average, low-cost player with four more years of control. At that point, if Moncada is up for good, and Sandoval looks like a serviceable backup plan, Shaw is the 1b. His production would be essentially average for first, and so he would have much more value to another team as an above-average 3b. In that case, he could bring a significant return in trade but be fairly easily replaced. It makes sense for Moncada to get AAA seasoning and see how the CIF/DH situation shakes out with Sandoval's return, Shaw's quality of play, and Hanley's success as a DH/backup 1b plan. At least with Hanley on board, they could go out and acquire a wholly offensively-minded player to DH, while moving him back to 1b if needed. If Moncada asserts himself as the starting 3b, then Shaw becomes relatively redundant on the Sox, so it makes a lot of sense to explore his trade value. But Shaw is probably the best option in trade both in terms of the Sox being able to absorb his absence, and being potentially very valuable to another team due to no salary issues and extended control. Of course, the really interesting thing in all of this is...who do they trade him for? I'd hope the Sox will get some RP depth in the offseason (I'd prefer several low-cost options instead of big contracts, given the extreme volatility of relievers), but they're set at LF, CF, RF, 2b, SS, and all five rotation spots. With Moncada, Devers, Sandoval, and in 2-4 years Dalbec, there's a glut of 3b options (and why trade a 3b for another 3b?). Leon/Vazquez/Swihart means C is set. And one of DH/1b is set with Hanley. Personally, I'd like to see them collect some high-upside arms in the low to mid-minors (but avoid MLB relievers, who are a gross market inefficiency right now), guys who have big stuff but maybe lack a refined third pitch or have command issues. Hope on them putting it together as starters, but seek out players who might profile well as high-leverage relievers. Or, go for 1b/DH types who have real offensive upside but lower value due to defensive limitations (Happ/Naylor types). Really, the Sox are in the very enviable position of basically having no rotation needs for 2 years (at which point Kopech should be ready and Groome close, and that's without the eminently possible Porcello and/or Pomeranz extension), no OF needs for four years, and no impending INF needs beyond 1b, for a *while*. So acquiring/developing bullpen arms, rotation depth, and a big bopper who doesn't need to play a lick of defense is about it. |
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 13, 2016 11:59:23 GMT -5
MLB Network Radio @mlbnetworkradio 11m11 minutes ago
Farrell said Yoan Moncada "is getting it handed to him right now, gotta be honest" but "its important for him to be here so he can learn"
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Post by ryantoworkman on Sept 13, 2016 14:22:11 GMT -5
MLB Network Radio @mlbnetworkradio 11m11 minutes ago Farrell said Yoan Moncada "is getting it handed to him right now, gotta be honest" but "its important for him to be here so he can learn" I think this as much about learning what the guys who are doing it every day do to prepare. Pedroia with his ealy morning arrival and daily routine is a good example. The guy has won a ROY, and MVP, but is still the hardest working guy on the team. Clearly he has a skills gap that needs to be closed. He can better focus on that when he returns to AAA next year because he's seen it first hand. We have to remember, he still has a developing brain, and introducing him to his shortcomings in such a way should have a more profound impact than simply talking about what needs work. He's so talented he's been able to overcome these holes because developing pitchers can't exploit them with regularity. He'll see more guys who can command off speed stuff in AAA than he did in the lower minors. He'll also have Arizona, and the winter to work on things. I'm encouraged for a mid 2017 sensational return and permanent spot in Boston. I'm thinking Panda wins 3B, Shaw becomes a multi-position sub, and by mid year the Sox are ready to deal one of them. |
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Sept 13, 2016 15:07:44 GMT -5
MLB Network Radio @mlbnetworkradio 11m11 minutes ago Farrell said Yoan Moncada "is getting it handed to him right now, gotta be honest" but "its important for him to be here so he can learn" Farrell's right on and Yoan couldn't be in a better atmosphere to struggle in, if that makes sense. He sits in the dugout next to one of the best hitters to ever play the game, a brilliant hitting coach, and a bunch of other youngsters who have experienced adversity in their journey to the bigs. And I can't forget Pedroia. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 13, 2016 19:36:47 GMT -5
Baseball America MiLB Player of the Year Yoan Moncada
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 14, 2016 14:39:33 GMT -5
Congrats Yoan!
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Sept 14, 2016 15:19:38 GMT -5
From Badler's chat today Bill (Boston): Moncada is striking out at an alarming rate. Should that "swing and miss" rate be a concern or just part of the development process? Ben Badler: It’s a little bit of both. The strikeout rate in High-A was fine and rose when he got to Double-A. Kris Bryant struck out 26 percent of the time in Double-A and it jumped to 29 percent in Triple-A, and that was when he was a year older than Moncada is now. The swing-and-miss was why I though Moncada might have trouble making the jump to MLB as a September callup, but between the bat speed, his swing mechanics and what’s generally good strike-zone judgment even if the pitch recognition needs to improve, I think you’re going to see the contact frequency get better with more experience. Bill (Boston): Devers, future 1st baseman with the Red Sox (blocked by Moncada at 3rd) or traded for pitching? Ben Badler: Devers is very blocked by Moncada right now, but he’s turned himself into a good defender at third base. Given Dave Dombrowski’s history, I think he’s (very valuable) trade bait. www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-chat/ |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 15, 2016 2:24:54 GMT -5
I would love to see Moncada shifted to CF. He definitely has the tools to become a great CF if he got reps there.
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Post by curll on Nov 13, 2024 13:34:32 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 13, 2024 13:38:01 GMT -5
Moncada still not even 30 years old yet, wouldn't really surprise me if he had a decent 2nd act of his career and catches on somewhere. Not any sort of fit for the Red Sox obviously but one of those guys that I always liked so hopefully he doesn't end up with the NYY.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Nov 13, 2024 13:46:47 GMT -5
Feble's 4 cents:
"I'm going to tell you one thing, I've been around this game over 20 years now," Febles said from outside his office at Hadlock Field this week. "I played for 13 years I've been coaching since 2007 and I haven't seen a player with that many tools that he has. That's a guy that could bring a lot to the table. He flies, he's a good base-stealer, big power. It's something you don't see often.
"I haven't seen a player with his type of tools since I don't even remember, I think Carlos Beltran was the last player I saw like him," Febles added. "This is special and that's why I'm a big believer that once he gets to the big leagues, he'll be there for many years to come."
"He's a very special player," Febles added. "Does he need to keep working and clean up a couple things? Absolutely. But to me, he's the kind of guy who will be a superstar in the big leagues if he stays healthy."
www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/08/yoan_moncada_carlos_beltran.html#incart_2box_sportsSounds like a generational player.  Moncada - 9 years in the majors (one a call up and some truncated by injury, but including a relatively healthy 5 year block) Average OPS+ 106. Including 93 HRs, 32 SB v. 13 CS. Years with WAR above 2: 2 (2019, 5.2 bWAR. 2021, 4 bWAR.) I love old threads like these. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 13, 2024 13:53:56 GMT -5
Feble's 4 cents:
"I'm going to tell you one thing, I've been around this game over 20 years now," Febles said from outside his office at Hadlock Field this week. "I played for 13 years I've been coaching since 2007 and I haven't seen a player with that many tools that he has. That's a guy that could bring a lot to the table. He flies, he's a good base-stealer, big power. It's something you don't see often.
"I haven't seen a player with his type of tools since I don't even remember, I think Carlos Beltran was the last player I saw like him," Febles added. "This is special and that's why I'm a big believer that once he gets to the big leagues, he'll be there for many years to come."
"He's a very special player," Febles added. "Does he need to keep working and clean up a couple things? Absolutely. But to me, he's the kind of guy who will be a superstar in the big leagues if he stays healthy."
www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/08/yoan_moncada_carlos_beltran.html#incart_2box_sportsSounds like a generational player. Moncada - 9 years in the majors (one a call up and some truncated by injury, but including a relatively healthy 5 year block) Average OPS+ 106. Including 93 HRs, 32 SB v. 13 CS. Years with WAR above 2: 2 (2019, 5.2 bWAR. 2021, 4 bWAR.) I love old threads like these. He was the #1 prospect in the game. Febles wasn't even wrong about his being a superstar if healthy (see 2019); the hype was justified, even if he's only had a good career hampered by injuries rather than a great one. |
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Nov 13, 2024 14:10:29 GMT -5
Can no one just be wrong about something?
Maybe it's me here. One not quite top-ten OPS or top-ten WAR finish in 5 healthy years is a superstar?
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Post by incandenza on Nov 13, 2024 14:24:09 GMT -5
Can no one just be wrong about something? Maybe it's me here. One not quite top-ten OPS or top-ten WAR finish in 5 healthy years is a superstar? I dunno, it just seems like kind of an odd case to pick on. Febles a) was just expressing the consensus view; b) qualified it with some very reasonable caveats; and c) yeah, Moncada was a 4+ WAR/600 player from 2019-2021, his prime was interrupted by the covid year, and then he's been frequently hurt (but still close to a 2 WAR/600) player since then. The evaluation of "potential superstar if healthy" here does not strike me as the most egregious case of prospect overhype you could find.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Nov 13, 2024 14:58:56 GMT -5
Can no one just be wrong about something? Maybe it's me here. One not quite top-ten OPS or top-ten WAR finish in 5 healthy years is a superstar? I dunno, it just seems like kind of an odd case to pick on. Febles a) was just expressing the consensus view; b) qualified it with some very reasonable caveats; and c) yeah, Moncada was a 4+ WAR/600 player from 2019-2021, his prime was interrupted by the covid year, and then he's been frequently hurt (but still close to a 2 WAR/600) player since then. The evaluation of "potential superstar if healthy" here does not strike me as the most egregious case of prospect overhype you could find.
The thread was bumped. Moncada hasn't lit the world afire. I clicked back a few pages to see what the consensus of him might have been in 2016, and the Febles quote stood out. From my perspective, it seems an odd thing for you to defend. As though I was attacking Febles or something? If it makes you feel any better, I can assure you that's not the case. He made his public prediction, and it's subject to us looking at it and asking whether it was right or wrong. That very simple analysis shouldn't get a free pass whether or not somebody, at some other time, made a worse prediction about a different player. Or is it personal? Again, I assure you I have no particular individual posters in mind. In fact, it's totally bizarre to me that some posters here seem to think other people have some kind of tally-board as to what their past predictions were. I honestly just don't care about that. I think though, that the Febles quote is a good reminder that a lot of this is just guesswork. Moncada's best season came when he got a number of things (including his strikeout rate) to align. He never quite put those things together outside that one year. Further, when I look at Savant, I see a guy whose ability to take a walk or lay off pitches oscillates from year to year. One year he's a devastating fastball hitter. The next, he's hopeless but excels at breaking pitches. To me, that's an indication that his batting skills are not just "something he needs to work on and polish up a bit" - it's complex of tendencies that combined to impose a ceiling on him, a ceiling that's not just wished away by saying it's injury related. So that's worth keeping in mind. I also don't think the COVID argument holds water - superstars did well in 2020, and bounced back in 2021. (His walk rate actually increased.) |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 13, 2024 15:09:07 GMT -5
I dunno, it just seems like kind of an odd case to pick on. Febles a) was just expressing the consensus view; b) qualified it with some very reasonable caveats; and c) yeah, Moncada was a 4+ WAR/600 player from 2019-2021, his prime was interrupted by the covid year, and then he's been frequently hurt (but still close to a 2 WAR/600) player since then. The evaluation of "potential superstar if healthy" here does not strike me as the most egregious case of prospect overhype you could find.
The thread was bumped. Moncada hasn't lit the world afire. I clicked back a few pages to see what the consensus of him might have been in 2016, and the Febles quote stood out. From my perspective, it seems an odd thing for you to defend. As though I was attacking Febles or something? If it makes you feel any better, I can assure you that's not the case. He made his public prediction, and it's subject to us looking at it and asking whether it was right or wrong. That very simple analysis shouldn't get a free pass whether or not somebody, at some other time, made a worse prediction about a different player. Or is it personal? Again, I assure you I have no particular individual posters in mind. In fact, it's totally bizarre to me that some posters here seem to think other people have some kind of tally-board as to what their past predictions were. I honestly just don't care about that. I think though, that the Febles quote is a good reminder that a lot of this is just guesswork. Moncada's best season came when he got a number of things (including his strikeout rate) to align. He never quite put those things together outside that one year. Further, when I look at Savant, I see a guy whose ability to take a walk or lay off pitches oscillates from year to year. One year he's a devastating fastball hitter. The next, he's hopeless but excels at breaking pitches. To me, that's an indication that his batting skills are not just "something he needs to work on and polish up a bit" - it's complex of tendencies that combined to impose a ceiling on him, a ceiling that's not just wished away by saying it's injury related. So that's worth keeping in mind. I also don't think the COVID argument holds water - superstars did well in 2020, and bounced back in 2021. (His walk rate actually increased.) It's not personal at all. I did read it as critical of Febles, though, and wanted to defend him. Anyway, none of this is a big deal.
Let me say on the covid season, though, that I didn't throw it out; I counted it as part of his 4+ WAR/600 track record from 2019-2021. It's just that he obviously had no chance to put up 4 WAR in 2020 itself.
But... 2020 probably should be thrown out! It was a small sample, and the season was played under incredibly weird circumstances.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Nov 13, 2024 15:34:32 GMT -5
The thread was bumped. Moncada hasn't lit the world afire. I clicked back a few pages to see what the consensus of him might have been in 2016, and the Febles quote stood out. From my perspective, it seems an odd thing for you to defend. As though I was attacking Febles or something? If it makes you feel any better, I can assure you that's not the case. He made his public prediction, and it's subject to us looking at it and asking whether it was right or wrong. That very simple analysis shouldn't get a free pass whether or not somebody, at some other time, made a worse prediction about a different player. Or is it personal? Again, I assure you I have no particular individual posters in mind. In fact, it's totally bizarre to me that some posters here seem to think other people have some kind of tally-board as to what their past predictions were. I honestly just don't care about that. I think though, that the Febles quote is a good reminder that a lot of this is just guesswork. Moncada's best season came when he got a number of things (including his strikeout rate) to align. He never quite put those things together outside that one year. Further, when I look at Savant, I see a guy whose ability to take a walk or lay off pitches oscillates from year to year. One year he's a devastating fastball hitter. The next, he's hopeless but excels at breaking pitches. To me, that's an indication that his batting skills are not just "something he needs to work on and polish up a bit" - it's complex of tendencies that combined to impose a ceiling on him, a ceiling that's not just wished away by saying it's injury related. So that's worth keeping in mind. I also don't think the COVID argument holds water - superstars did well in 2020, and bounced back in 2021. (His walk rate actually increased.) It's not personal at all. I did read it as critical of Febles, though, and wanted to defend him. Anyway, none of this is a big deal.
Let me say on the covid season, though, that I didn't throw it out; I counted it as part of his 4+ WAR/600 track record from 2019-2021. It's just that he obviously had no chance to put up 4 WAR in 2020 itself.
But... 2020 probably should be thrown out! It was a small sample, and the season was played under incredibly weird circumstances.
Personally, I don't hold 2020 against any player (certainly not for WAR), and tried to exclude it when doing projections in 21-23. I think that's a bit stale now, except for the group of MiL players who lost a development year to it. In Moncada's case, it's kind of a nullity as far as I'm concerned. He played the "Spring Training" and regular season games in '20. If he had been consistent in his underlying numbers from '19 to '20 to '21, I think you'd have a good argument he had three years of excellence cut short in the middle by COVID. You'd have a weaker argument if '20 was a bad blip between '19 and '21, but I'd probably credit it. As it is, his numbers oscillated significantly in those 3 years, where he didn't barrel/hard hit the ball in 2020 and took more walks. Then in '21, he kept the walk rate high (relative to '19) but struck out more while barreling/hard hitting less. In retrospect, his '19 campaign was more like a two true outcome approach - K, hit the ball very hard, or maybe walk as a distant third option. That kind of approach, IMO, is often unsustainable. It was an improvement over '18, when he lead the league in Ks, but he never homered enough to really elevate the value of that mostly-all-or-nothing approach. |
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2024 16:59:20 GMT -5
He's at 14.3 bWAR IN 747 career games and 3100 plate appearances. That's a very good player, just not a healthy enough one to make the impact you'd hope. He's been only slightly less valuable on a per-game basis than Devers.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 13, 2024 19:10:22 GMT -5
He's at 14.3 bWAR IN 747 career games and 3100 plate appearances. That's a very good player, just not a healthy enough one to make the impact you'd hope. He's been only slightly less valuable on a per-game basis than Devers. Sounds almost as though he might have been a superstar in the big leagues if he had stayed healthy. Could be an interesting buy-low (to -mid) opportunity for a team if they can figure out how to keep him on the field. Easier said than done for some guys. |
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Post by rkarp on Nov 14, 2024 8:23:06 GMT -5
I seem to recall Moncada was as "can't miss" as Anthony, Meyer, Campbell & Teel.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 14, 2024 8:43:30 GMT -5
I seem to recall Moncada was as "can't miss" as Anthony, Meyer, Campbell & Teel. Even those four prospects are very different levels of “can’t miss.” I’d compare Moncada to Mayer in terms of risk level, though Moncada was toolsier and so had more upside. And I think most of us here are long past the point where we’d consider Mayer “can’t miss.” |
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 14, 2024 11:15:13 GMT -5
Many a "can't miss" prospect (I hate that phrase) has had a worse career than Moncada's thus far. What are we talking about again?
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Post by rkarp on Nov 14, 2024 11:16:33 GMT -5
Many a "can't miss" prospect (I hate that phrase) has had a worse career than Moncada's thus far. What are we talking about again?talking about prospects are never a sure thing, and should be used as commodities to upgrade the roster |
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 14, 2024 11:57:52 GMT -5
Moncada wasn't a miss and the Red Sox did trade him to upgrade another part of the roster. Won a World Series because of it. This is so weird.
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Post by rkarp on Nov 14, 2024 12:14:00 GMT -5
Moncada wasn't a miss and the Red Sox did trade him to upgrade another part of the roster. Won a World Series because of it. This is so weird. honestly, If Anthony or Mayer on their 30 years old season have put up 1 season with a WAR over 3.7, and have battled injury for over half their career, I would consider that a miss due to injury, but still a miss |
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