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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on May 7, 2015 21:39:26 GMT -5
Curious as to why Ben didn't fire himself since this wretched staff was all his idea. Oh, well, I can wait another 6 months for that. Party at my place!
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on May 7, 2015 21:42:08 GMT -5
Who want to see Ben & John go if the team still playing terrible all way to the end of season? I do. I rather to let them go now. It's unacceptable performance by the whole pitching staff except Porcello & Uehara. Ben, yes. Absolutely. I'd give Farrell a chance with a decent squad before letting him go though.
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Post by grandsalami on May 7, 2015 21:48:49 GMT -5
Curious as to why Ben didn't fire himself since this wretched staff was all his idea. Oh, well, I can wait another 6 months for that. Party at my place! Troll?
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on May 7, 2015 22:01:18 GMT -5
derp.derp, yeah troll. How about you and your grandiose expectations for this staff. Bit of trolling yourself, no?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 7, 2015 22:06:53 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, I can't think of any reasons Nieves SHOULDN'T have been fired. There's no Jake Arrieta or Scott Kazmir reclamation project success stories on this team you can point to in his defense. The Red Sox haven't been particularly good at getting better-than-expected performances out of kids or vets under Nieves. I don't know how much of that you can hang on him, but it's not like they're firing a Leo Mazzone or a Dave Duncan here.
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Post by grandsalami on May 7, 2015 23:10:24 GMT -5
derp.derp, yeah troll. How about you and your grandiose expectations for this staff. Bit of trolling yourself, no? Yes your cant wait for 6 month when Ben is fired and when he is party at my house comes off as a troll. What fan roots for their Gm to be fired unless you are the Phillies who have one of the worst gms in mlb
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on May 7, 2015 23:20:56 GMT -5
Sorry if this point has been partially made.
This "wretched" rotation acquired by the terrible Ben Cherington was, going into today's off-day:
28th in ERA- 12th in FIP- 13th in xFIP- 10th in SIERA, league adjusted.
This is a good rotation which has been rendered awful by a hard-to-believe MLB-worst 63.1% LOB%. The difference between the Sox and the second-worst White Sox is as large as the difference between the White Sox and the 9th-worst Astros.
Incidentally, the bullpen is:
14th in ERA- 29th in FIP- 26th in xFIP- 23 in SIERA adjusted
So some of the LOB% is probably inherited runners. But a lot of it has been poor pitching with RISP.
I'm not sure there's strong evidence for this being other than bad luck, but the one-bad-inning phenomenon has happened so often, and to almost all of the starters*, that it's credible that it's not random. And if it's not random, then guys are providing less value than they have talent, and it is arguably the job of the pitching coach to make those match.
*Very mildly to Masterson, mildly to Porcello, egregiously to Miley and Kelly, unimaginably to Buchholz (2.97 SIERA, 2.99 xFIP, 2.98 FIP ... and a 6.03 ERA).
Edit: Out of 109 qualifying pitchers, Buchholz ranks 9th worst in ERA- and 9th best in xFIP-. (He's 10th in league-adjusted SIERA and 18th in FIP-.)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 7, 2015 23:22:27 GMT -5
Definitely seems like a case where you can't fire the pitchers so you fire the pitching coach. I have absolutely no idea if Nieves was really a good pitching coach or not.
What is clear to me is that besides all the projection systems saying the Sox pitching staff has been unlucky, and they're not as bad as they appear, it seems to me that Cherington, or perhaps John Henry, decided that the bottom line is results, and the results have the Sox giving up a ton of runs, whether they're unlucky hits, badly sequenced hits, etc.
I think if the Sox were really buying that it's just dumb luck that the pitchers aren't pitching as they should, then I would think they'd wait for their luck to turn rather than fire Nieves. This tells me they're not so confident that the numbers will eventually come down to where the projection systems have them.
So I guess the next coach (Carl Willis?) is in a decent situation. There's nowhere to go as a pitching staff than up. It's harder to pitch worse. If the pitching doesn't improve under the pitching coach, then perhaps Ben C. has to re-examine if avoiding the premier free agent pitching market altogether is something they can keep doing. The Sox have a staff that projected very little certainty and has way too many gambles and nothing that resembles an elite or all-star caliber top of the rotation starter.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 8, 2015 5:36:33 GMT -5
I was listening to Inside Pitch with Jim Bowden on XM radio this p.m. during a long drive. Jim and his co-host opined that the Sox had two number three starters (Buch and Porcello), a 4, a 5 and a 7 (Masterson). In their opinion, no team had ever won a world series with that kind of staff. They felt that the Sox were two top starters away and in need of significant bullpen help too. To them it was the age-old story...fire the pitching coach or the manager but not the GM who hired the personnel. I would bet that Farrell is in the on-deck circle followed by Cherington if things don't turn around. And, if one looks back to 2013, Lester was barely above league-average, and they had Doubront and Peavy getting a substantial number of starts. Lackey was basically a three, so along with Lester, that's pretty much a 2/3, 3, 4,5, 7 (Dempster). All it took was a half-season of consistency from Clay to put them over the top. Not to belabor the point, but the starters' peripherals (and hence SIERA) suggest that they've had a lot of bad luck. With the offense hitting .209 with RISP (anyone want to rationalize how THAT isn't simple SSS bad luck? Be my guest), they've had all-around bad luck and that they're only two games under .500 should be comforting. If that RISP number were in line with their BA, they'd be 2 or 4 games over .500. And if their pitchers' ERAs were in line with their SIERAs, they'd be healthily in first. WAY, WAY too early to start calling this a disaster. Well, we'll see. Management is obviously of the opinion that the issue is a lot more than bad luck. One stat Bowden & Co. cited was that the Sox bullpen has pitched the most innings of any in baseball. That, in itself has to count for something. Several stats cited that I cannot now specifically recall put them at 28th or 29th among teams for the starters and the bullpen. Rightly or wrongly Nieves is the current fall guy. He was hand-picked, I think, by Farrell. As another poster noted above, John Henry is grabbing the wheel and he is not one to suffer failure gladly.
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Post by jimed14 on May 8, 2015 5:59:20 GMT -5
I was listening to Inside Pitch with Jim Bowden on XM radio this p.m. during a long drive. Jim and his co-host opined that the Sox had two number three starters (Buch and Porcello), a 4, a 5 and a 7 (Masterson). In their opinion, no team had ever won a world series with that kind of staff. They felt that the Sox were two top starters away and in need of significant bullpen help too. To them it was the age-old story...fire the pitching coach or the manager but not the GM who hired the personnel. I would bet that Farrell is in the on-deck circle followed by Cherington if things don't turn around. You left out the part about how it was Cafardo that was talking to him agreeing with everything he said.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 8, 2015 6:24:30 GMT -5
I was listening to Inside Pitch with Jim Bowden on XM radio this p.m. during a long drive. Jim and his co-host opined that the Sox had two number three starters (Buch and Porcello), a 4, a 5 and a 7 (Masterson). In their opinion, no team had ever won a world series with that kind of staff. They felt that the Sox were two top starters away and in need of significant bullpen help too. To them it was the age-old story...fire the pitching coach or the manager but not the GM who hired the personnel. I would bet that Farrell is in the on-deck circle followed by Cherington if things don't turn around. You left out the part about how it was Cafardo that was talking to him agreeing with everything he said. Actually no. Cafardo was not mentioned. Can you or anyone name even 5 teams who would gladly switch pitching staffs with the Sox? As far as damning Bowden for being considerably less knowledgeable than many posters here, is there anyone who would now consider the referenced ratings of our starters on a World Series type team as widely disparate from what Bowden & Co said? For me, Porcello is the only one in whom I would have relative confidence to start a Series game...and not likely to match with the top starter on the opposition side. I would carry that down the line with all our starters vs their counterparts. Does anyone think that we are one starter i.e. Hamels or Cueto away? Can we lock down games in the 7th, 8th and 9th with comparative consistency? Do we have the capacity to come from behind? Our better shot will be a year or two down the road when the young guys are seasoned and the staff is re-built.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 79
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Post by tedf on May 8, 2015 6:36:24 GMT -5
Don't even talk about Bradley until June 10th.
The next move to watch for is Masterson to the bullpen ...
Why June 10? Masterson to the pen makes sense. I want to see E-rod this month.
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Post by jimed14 on May 8, 2015 6:39:58 GMT -5
You left out the part about how it was Cafardo that was talking to him agreeing with everything he said. Actually no. Cafardo was not mentioned. Can you or anyone name even 5 teams who would gladly switch pitching staffs with the Sox? As far as damning Bowden for being considerably less knowledgeable than many posters here, is there anyone who would now consider the referenced ratings of our starters on a World Series type team as widely disparate from what Bowden & Co said? For me, Porcello is the only one in whom I would have relative confidence to start a Series game...and not likely to match with the top starter on the opposition side. I would carry that down the line with all our starters vs their counterparts. Does anyone think that we are one starter i.e. Hamels or Cueto away? Can we lock down games in the 7th, 8th and 9th with comparative consistency? Do we have the capacity to come from behind? Our better shot will be a year or two down the road when the young guys are seasoned and the staff is re-built. I was listening to it. Cafardo was on the phone with him. It was just another circle jerk of the typical negative Boston baseball media we've heard a million times. It's so easy to pile on when you don't understand sample sizes or advanced stats like SIERA or what the difference between ERA and FIP might mean. These morons would blame the pitcher for pitching badly if he gave up 18 infield hits in a row. The name of the game is winning. That includes the entire roster. Singling out the pitching is simplistic. This should be a better lineup than any team in the majors. That also counts.
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Post by johnmark on May 8, 2015 6:48:24 GMT -5
Sorry if this point has been partially made. This "wretched" rotation acquired by the terrible Ben Cherington was, going into today's off-day: 28th in ERA- 12th in FIP- 13th in xFIP- 10th in SIERA, league adjusted. This is a good rotation which has been rendered awful by a hard-to-believe MLB-worst 63.1% LOB%. The difference between the Sox and the second-worst White Sox is as large as the difference between the White Sox and the 9th-worst Astros. Incidentally, the bullpen is: 14th in ERA- 29th in FIP- 26th in xFIP- 23 in SIERA adjusted So some of the LOB% is probably inherited runners. But a lot of it has been poor pitching with RISP. I'm not sure there's strong evidence for this being other than bad luck, but the one-bad-inning phenomenon has happened so often, and to almost all of the starters*, that it's credible that it's not random. And if it's not random, then guys are providing less value than they have talent, and it is arguably the job of the pitching coach to make those match. *Very mildly to Masterson, mildly to Porcello, egregiously to Miley and Kelly, unimaginably to Buchholz (2.97 SIERA, 2.99 xFIP, 2.98 FIP ... and a 6.03 ERA). Edit: Out of 109 qualifying pitchers, Buchholz ranks 9th worst in ERA- and 9th best in xFIP-. (He's 10th in league-adjusted SIERA and 18th in FIP-.) I love stats, but what stats can't measure is moxie. Determiniation in the moment to hit the corner, get the out, win. And that is something lacking in the staff. I am not going to expect an extreme 180 in this staff when I see something lacking in the competitive fiber of their makeup.
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Post by jimed14 on May 8, 2015 6:50:55 GMT -5
I love stats, but what stats can't measure is moxie. Determiniation in the moment to hit the corner, get the out, win. And that is something lacking in the staff. I am not going to expect an extreme 180 in this staff when I see something lacking in the competitive fiber of their makeup. Yeah, a pitcher has moxie when he gets a 420 foot out, but not when he gives up an infield single.
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Post by johnmark on May 8, 2015 7:00:40 GMT -5
I love stats, but what stats can't measure is moxie. Determiniation in the moment to hit the corner, get the out, win. And that is something lacking in the staff. I am not going to expect an extreme 180 in this staff when I see something lacking in the competitive fiber of their makeup. Yeah, a pitcher has moxie when he gets a 420 foot out, but not when he gives up an infield single. I do think it is lacking and that the staff is suffering from a lack of a true #1.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 8, 2015 7:02:35 GMT -5
Actually no. Cafardo was not mentioned. Can you or anyone name even 5 teams who would gladly switch pitching staffs with the Sox? As far as damning Bowden for being considerably less knowledgeable than many posters here, is there anyone who would now consider the referenced ratings of our starters on a World Series type team as widely disparate from what Bowden & Co said? For me, Porcello is the only one in whom I would have relative confidence to start a Series game...and not likely to match with the top starter on the opposition side. I would carry that down the line with all our starters vs their counterparts. Does anyone think that we are one starter i.e. Hamels or Cueto away? Can we lock down games in the 7th, 8th and 9th with comparative consistency? Do we have the capacity to come from behind? Our better shot will be a year or two down the road when the young guys are seasoned and the staff is re-built. I was listening to it. Cafardo was on the phone with him. It was just another circle jerk of the typical negative Boston baseball media we've heard a million times. It's so easy to pile on when you don't understand sample sizes or advanced stats like SIERA or what the difference between ERA and FIP might mean. These morons would blame the pitcher for pitching badly if he gave up 18 infield hits in a row. The name of the game is winning. That includes the entire roster. Singling out the pitching is simplistic. This should be a better lineup than any team in the majors. That also counts. Well, I'll certainly take your word on Cafardo as I can't claim to have heard all the program. And, certainly our fielding has not been very good either. Can we reasonably expect the fielding to get much better. Was Nieves fired and Mujica let go because of team ERA or being oblivious to FIP or SIERA? Looking at Eric's cited stats we might have a middling staff to date. If Management felt that, why can guys this early, SSS and all?
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,824
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Post by wcp3 on May 8, 2015 7:07:30 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, I can't think of any reasons Nieves SHOULDN'T have been fired. There's no Jake Arrieta or Scott Kazmir reclamation project success stories on this team you can point to in his defense. The Red Sox haven't been particularly good at getting better-than-expected performances out of kids or vets under Nieves. I don't know how much of that you can hang on him, but it's not like they're firing a Leo Mazzone or a Dave Duncan here. Exactly. All the media clowns were criticizing this move yesterday because the Sox don't have the most talented pitching staff, but that's a completely different argument. Just because there isn't a supposed ace on the roster doesn't negate the fact that the entire staff (minus the last two Porcello starts) has underachieved all season. And, like FTHW said, Nieves doesn't have any success stories to his name either. Who knows if this move will make a difference, but it's certainly not worth criticizing at the moment.
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Post by jimed14 on May 8, 2015 7:17:11 GMT -5
I was listening to it. Cafardo was on the phone with him. It was just another circle jerk of the typical negative Boston baseball media we've heard a million times. It's so easy to pile on when you don't understand sample sizes or advanced stats like SIERA or what the difference between ERA and FIP might mean. These morons would blame the pitcher for pitching badly if he gave up 18 infield hits in a row. The name of the game is winning. That includes the entire roster. Singling out the pitching is simplistic. This should be a better lineup than any team in the majors. That also counts. Well, I'll certainly take your word on Cafardo as I can't claim to have heard all the program. And, certainly our fielding has not been very good either. Can we reasonably expect the fielding to get much better. Was Nieves fired and Mujica let go because of team ERA or being oblivious to FIP or SIERA? Looking at Eric's cited stats we might have a middling staff to date. If Management felt that, why can guys this early, SSS and all? All we have to examine are stats. The Red Sox have more than that. There might have been problems we don't know about. I mean why was it an actual strategy for Uehara and Mujica to throw almost all splitters and no fastballs to start the year? That's just strange. I think the fielding will get better. Pedroia and Napoli have made uncharacteristic mistakes. And replace Craig with Castillo for another big upgrade.
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Post by jmei on May 8, 2015 7:25:25 GMT -5
Can you or anyone name even 5 teams who would gladly switch pitching staffs with the Sox? Just off the top of my head, I'm pretty confident that this rotation is better than that of the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Angels, and that's just amongst AL contenders.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 8, 2015 7:41:19 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, I can't think of any reasons Nieves SHOULDN'T have been fired. There's no Jake Arrieta or Scott Kazmir reclamation project success stories on this team you can point to in his defense. The Red Sox haven't been particularly good at getting better-than-expected performances out of kids or vets under Nieves. I don't know how much of that you can hang on him, but it's not like they're firing a Leo Mazzone or a Dave Duncan here. Exactly. All the media clowns were criticizing this move yesterday because the Sox don't have the most talented pitching staff, but that's a completely different argument. Just because there isn't a supposed ace on the roster doesn't negate the fact that the entire staff (minus the last two Porcello starts) has underachieved all season. And, like FTHW said, Nieves doesn't have any success stories to his name either. Who knows if this move will make a difference, but it's certainly not worth criticizing at the moment. One of the most damming things that went on while Juan Nieves was our pitching coach was the lack of improvement of any of our young pitchers when called up. Maybe Allen Webster or Rudy or Workman or Raunado don't have it at all, but maybe Juan never could get them consistent and productive. Nobody ever came up and really reached their ceiling. In some cases, they were barely hovering over their floor. I can't stand bad pitching, and ours for a while now has been legendary poor. How about Lester never learning how to throw to 1st? How about Clay's mental state and irritating habit of slowing down with runners on and throwing over to 1st time after time? Doubront? Yes Nieves was fine with a veteran staff. But for my money, no one ever IMPROVED. So Chris Hatfield is right.....there was more than Nieves being a scape-goat.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 79
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Post by tedf on May 8, 2015 7:57:11 GMT -5
I do think it is lacking and that the staff is suffering from a lack of a true #1. That certainly draws attention to the problems, but Kelly was inconsistent in St. Louis with Wainwright, Miley was inconsistent when with the Diamondbacks, Masterson was awful last year in Cleveland with Kluber, and Buchholz has been up and down for years despite the presence of Lester and others. Having a couple strong arms at the top of the rotation takes some of the load off the pen, but I don't know that it makes it any easier for the other starters to perform.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 79
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Post by tedf on May 8, 2015 7:58:09 GMT -5
One of the most damming things that went on while Juan Nieves was our pitching coach was the lack of improvement of any of our young pitchers when called up. Maybe Allen Webster or Rudy or Workman or Raunado don't have it at all, but maybe Juan never could get them consistent and productive. Nobody ever came up and really reached their ceiling. In some cases, they were barely hovering over their floor. Rubby De La Rosa seems to be putting it together with Arizona this year. The Red Sox may regret that trade.
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Post by jmei on May 8, 2015 8:23:04 GMT -5
I've said this before, but it's extremely difficult to evaluate pitching (and hitting) coaches from outside the organization. There are just too many confounding variables to really judge them solely based on how their pitchers have performed (not to mention that it's usually a small sample), but unlike managers (who write out the lineup and make in-game tactical decisions), there is no other direct reflection of a pitching coach's performance. The folks in the organization have a much closer look at his day-to-day communication, teaching, strategic, etc. abilities, and they're in a much better position to evaluate a guy's strengths and weaknesses.
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Post by notguilty on May 8, 2015 8:31:03 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, I can't think of any reasons Nieves SHOULDN'T have been fired. There's no Jake Arrieta or Scott Kazmir reclamation project success stories on this team you can point to in his defense. The Red Sox haven't been particularly good at getting better-than-expected performances out of kids or vets under Nieves. I don't know how much of that you can hang on him, but it's not like they're firing a Leo Mazzone or a Dave Duncan here. Exactly. All the media clowns were criticizing this move yesterday because the Sox don't have the most talented pitching staff, but that's a completely different argument. Just because there isn't a supposed ace on the roster doesn't negate the fact that the entire staff (minus the last two Porcello starts) has underachieved all season. And, like FTHW said, Nieves doesn't have any success stories to his name either.Who knows if this move will make a difference, but it's certainly not worth criticizing at the moment.This is really unfair to Nieves, and probably wrong (I don't know for sure, and I doubts anybody here really knows). But this is the kind of thing you say after the fact to justify a move like this, but that doesn't make it true. And this is not an argument for not firing him. The pitching staff is terrible, you fire the pitching coach. Fine. But shoving him off like he's some kind of bum isn't really helpful either. First, nobody here (unless you're an insider) really knows whom he helped. And when Nieves first came here from the White Sox, I remember seeing stories about guys he helped. Second, if the standard is success stories of a Jake Arrieta-magnitude, you probably need to fire half the pitching coaches. Third, Nieves was perfectly fine when they were winning the World Series in 2013. Lester pitched well; Lackey, Taz; Buchholz was very good until he got injured. Doubront. Mortensen. Badenhop. But that was all Farrell, I guess.
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