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2015 Boston Celtics Offseason
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Post by texs31 on Jul 1, 2015 15:24:45 GMT -5
While unlikely, I also think Johnson's D would play nicely next to a C like Greg Monroe. Probably not happening but the FIT would work.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 1, 2015 15:31:40 GMT -5
Amir Johnson would be a really bad signing, would rather give Mickey the minutes. Mickey gives us the shot blocking and rebounding we need. You are way, way overrating a rookie second round pick. No, you are way, way undervaluing him!!! He was one of the best rebounding and shot blocking players in college basketball last year. As a stat guy I am surprised you wouldn't understand that rebounding and blocked shots translate to the pros very well, just like steals. The fact he was a second round pick means nothing, but that the Celtics got a huge steal. In todays NBA of playing small ball he is a perfect second string center. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 1, 2015 15:40:01 GMT -5
Things just got better . . . 2nd year on both Johnson and Jerebko are non-guaranteed (per Bulpett).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 1, 2015 15:43:55 GMT -5
So Johnson for 2 years and 24 million and Jerebko at 2 years and 10 million, just killed all of our cap space. OMG this is a nightmare!!! People didn't want Harris for 15 million but seem to like Johnson for 12 million a year??? Johnson is what he is, an ok player that has no upside left at all. To make matters worse we now have used 17 out of 25 million in cap space, so without trading someone like Wallace we don't even have the cap space to go after Monroe, Harris or Lopez. I really hate this!!! Johnson has never had a per as high as Sullinger's 17.93 last year. That was a year in which I think we all agree Sullinger didn't play his best!
Why not give 12 million a year to Robin Lopez or Kosta Koufos? We need a rim protecting center, not another PF. Did we really just spend 12 million on a back up PF?
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Post by texs31 on Jul 1, 2015 15:56:52 GMT -5
But his WAR is better and is BPG is better as is plus/minus.
I like Sully but when he carries that PER over 80 games (plus, hopefully, a playoff series or 2) I'll be impressed.
The problem is that Boston wants to improve but they don't want to handcuff themselves for the bigger move. Lopez/Koufos would likely require big multi-year deals that WOULD limit options going forward. Their plan has always been to remain flexible for the big play. The big plays were not happening (not as Free Agents anyways). They have plenty of reasonable/flexible contracts to move in sign-and-trades or straight deals. PLUS, if they stay over the cap, they have significant Trade Exceptions to absorb contracts.
They HAVE improved the team (albeit not as by as much as many of us were hoping) and they haven't handcuffed themselves down the road.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 1, 2015 16:06:15 GMT -5
What are Sullingers and Johnson WAR? Blocks per game last year .7 for Sullinger and .8 for Johnson, that is a wash in my book. Also Johnson is replacing Bass, so did we really improve? People have been waiting for Johnson to have a break out year for the last 5 years, it just has never happened. For me Johnson is one of the most overrated players in the league. I remember someone once calling Johnson a KG lite, more like a KG mini me.
Also the cap will be like 106 million in two years, so a 15 million salary won't stop the Celtics from adding players in the future.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 1, 2015 16:28:46 GMT -5
in my car so not looking up stats, but I think Johnson had two more wins than Sullinger. Bpg, you er right. I was looking at something different.
For what we needed, yes I believe Johnson is an upgrade on Bass.
The problem is nobody good was likely going to take our cap space. As Basketball Insiders points out, we might have more flexibility by being over the cap (exceptions and such).
Bottom line is that our next stars are more likely to come from present assets (Smart, Young, Sully maybe & hopefully those Brooklyn picks).
Big time free agents don't come here so don't obsess about it. We need to build up our roster 4-8, get one of our recent or future draftees to become a stud and wait to pounce.
Despite bigger dreams, this was always the likely outcome.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2015 16:41:40 GMT -5
So Johnson for 2 years and 24 million and Jerebko at 2 years and 10 million, just killed all of our cap space. OMG this is a nightmare!!! People didn't want Harris for 15 million but seem to like Johnson for 12 million a year??? Johnson is what he is, an ok player that has no upside left at all. To make matters worse we now have used 17 out of 25 million in cap space, so without trading someone like Wallace we don't even have the cap space to go after Monroe, Harris or Lopez. I really hate this!!! Johnson has never had a per as high as Sullinger's 17.93 last year. That was a year in which I think we all agree Sullinger didn't play his best! Why not give 12 million a year to Robin Lopez or Kosta Koufos? We need a rim protecting center, not another PF. Did we really just spend 12 million on a back up PF? Johnson is a better present player than Harris, and the way the market is going, Orlando was likely to match any offer (which means you just tied up your cap space for the first days of free agency for nothing). He is also a better player than Lopez or Koufos and offers similar rim protection (his career 3.8% block percentage is comparable to Lopez's 4.1% and Koufos' 4.2%). PER is a woefully inadequate stat as a one-stop-shop stat. I've already discussed all the reasons why Johnson is much, much better than his PER. |
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2015 16:48:34 GMT -5
Also Johnson is replacing Bass, so did we really improve? People have been waiting for Johnson to have a break out year for the last 5 years, it just has never happened. For me Johnson is one of the most overrated players in the league. I remember someone once calling Johnson a KG lite, more like a KG mini me. He probably had his breakout year in 2013-14, when he ranked 16th amongst all players in real plus-minus (a much better one-stop-shop-type stat than PER), right in between Blake Griffin and Joakim Noah (both MVP candidates). He was injured last year, but still ranked well by RPM and the other metrics that go beyond box score numbers. He is a much, much better player than Brandon Bass (who put up a negative RPM last year). |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 1, 2015 21:03:21 GMT -5
Also Johnson is replacing Bass, so did we really improve? People have been waiting for Johnson to have a break out year for the last 5 years, it just has never happened. For me Johnson is one of the most overrated players in the league. I remember someone once calling Johnson a KG lite, more like a KG mini me. He probably had his breakout year in 2013-14, when he ranked 16th amongst all players in real plus-minus (a much better one-stop-shop-type stat than PER), right in between Blake Griffin and Joakim Noah (both MVP candidates). He was injured last year, but still ranked well by RPM and the other metrics that go beyond box score numbers. He is a much, much better player than Brandon Bass (who put up a negative RPM last year). Umm I strongly disagree that RPM is a better overall stat then PER. 2014/2015 RPM #16 is Zaza Pachulia, 34 is Kelly Olynk, 85 is Johnson and 87th is Sullinger. Sure PER is all about one players stats and how efficient he is, but RPM depends on the players you play with and against. Hence Olynk is so high because he comes off the bench and plays on a good second unit. Blake Griffin was 40th, so you think Zaza and Olynk are better players? Just a few more players that have a higher RPM then Blake, 21 is Cody Zeller, 29 is George Hill and 37 is Markieff Morris.
The other issue is that Johnson ankles are so bad that reports have it he can no longer guard PF and is now able to only guard centers. I don't care what he did in 2013/2014 I care what he does in 2015/2016 and he is trending the wrong way.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 1, 2015 21:17:09 GMT -5
So Johnson for 2 years and 24 million and Jerebko at 2 years and 10 million, just killed all of our cap space. OMG this is a nightmare!!! People didn't want Harris for 15 million but seem to like Johnson for 12 million a year??? Johnson is what he is, an ok player that has no upside left at all. To make matters worse we now have used 17 out of 25 million in cap space, so without trading someone like Wallace we don't even have the cap space to go after Monroe, Harris or Lopez. I really hate this!!! Johnson has never had a per as high as Sullinger's 17.93 last year. That was a year in which I think we all agree Sullinger didn't play his best! Why not give 12 million a year to Robin Lopez or Kosta Koufos? We need a rim protecting center, not another PF. Did we really just spend 12 million on a back up PF? Johnson is a better present player than Harris, and the way the market is going, Orlando was likely to match any offer (which means you just tied up your cap space for the first days of free agency for nothing). He is also a better player than Lopez or Koufos and offers similar rim protection (his career 3.8% block percentage is comparable to Lopez's 4.1% and Koufos' 4.2%). PER is a woefully inadequate stat as a one-stop-shop stat. I've already discussed all the reasons why Johnson is much, much better than his PER. I would rather get no players then get Johnson, like I've said before give Mickey minutes that is what's better long term. Also career block % is a joke with Johnson as his blocks have declined for two straight years to almost half of what they were. His ankles are horrible, you are not getting the player Johnson used to be.
Do you really think that Harris's RPM wouldn't improve playing on the Celtics with Brad Stevens as his coach?
We just spent half our cap space on a player that has a way lower RPM then Olynk and almost the same as Sullinger. I will give you that he does have a better RPM then Bass, but he is not as good offensively either. Wow 12 million on a maybe slight upgrade over Bass overall.
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Post by bookiemetts on Jul 1, 2015 23:54:21 GMT -5
Johnson is a better present player than Harris, and the way the market is going, Orlando was likely to match any offer (which means you just tied up your cap space for the first days of free agency for nothing). He is also a better player than Lopez or Koufos and offers similar rim protection (his career 3.8% block percentage is comparable to Lopez's 4.1% and Koufos' 4.2%). PER is a woefully inadequate stat as a one-stop-shop stat. I've already discussed all the reasons why Johnson is much, much better than his PER. I would rather get no players then get Johnson, like I've said before give Mickey minutes that is what's better long term. Also career block % is a joke with Johnson as his blocks have declined for two straight years to almost half of what they were. His ankles are horrible, you are not getting the player Johnson used to be.
Do you really think that Harris's RPM wouldn't improve playing on the Celtics with Brad Stevens as his coach?
We just spent half our cap space on a player that has a way lower RPM then Olynk and almost the same as Sullinger. I will give you that he does have a better RPM then Bass, but he is not as good offensively either. Wow 12 million on a maybe slight upgrade over Bass overall.
You still think this knowing that the second year isn't guaranteed and Danny can ship him out easily if he's injured or bad? That second year he doesn't even need to be good to be valuable as a trade piece with the cap going up and teams opening their wallets on free agents. As far as Mickey goes, there's a pretty high chance that he's just bad. Lots of 2nd rounders end up doing literally nothing, and Johnson is an established NBA player and by all accounts a great teammate. |
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2015 23:56:18 GMT -5
There is some noise with RPM, but there is noise with any stat, including PER (Hassan Whiteside above LeBron James, Derek Favors over Marc Gasol, Amare Stodamire over Tyson Chandler). When a guy like Johnson has consistently ranked well by holistic measures of value and gets scouting love for his defense and screening, that's almost certainly real and not a mirage.
I don't know anything about his medicals, but he's not even 30 yet, and unless the ankle problems are chronic degeneration, he has a good chance of bouncing back.
Neither Sullinger nor Olynyk can defend their own position, let alone operate in the kind of team defense that is so en vogue these days. Johnson is the kind of guy who can both protect the rim (somewhat) but also hedge on PnRs. He can stretch the floor but also bang for rebounds inside. His versatility is one of his selling points. I'm excited to watch him in Stevens' system.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 2, 2015 0:56:25 GMT -5
I would rather get no players then get Johnson, like I've said before give Mickey minutes that is what's better long term. Also career block % is a joke with Johnson as his blocks have declined for two straight years to almost half of what they were. His ankles are horrible, you are not getting the player Johnson used to be.
Do you really think that Harris's RPM wouldn't improve playing on the Celtics with Brad Stevens as his coach?
We just spent half our cap space on a player that has a way lower RPM then Olynk and almost the same as Sullinger. I will give you that he does have a better RPM then Bass, but he is not as good offensively either. Wow 12 million on a maybe slight upgrade over Bass overall.
You still think this knowing that the second year isn't guaranteed and Danny can ship him out easily if he's injured or bad? That second year he doesn't even need to be good to be valuable as a trade piece with the cap going up and teams opening their wallets on free agents. As far as Mickey goes, there's a pretty high chance that he's just bad. Lots of 2nd rounders end up doing literally nothing, and Johnson is an established NBA player and by all accounts a great teammate. Sure it makes it a little better. That being said with the cap going to over a hundred million in two years, teams won't be dumbing assets to free space like in the past, so I don't think the value will be that high.
I wanted a solid second tier free agent or two, or a bunch of young guys with upside. Not a tier 3 guy that is making 12 million. Or use our cap space like Philly did, took on Landry and Thompson and got Stauskas, first round pick top 10 protected and the right to swap picks in two other years.
Looked over all of the signings and Johnson at 12 million is by far and away the biggest overpay so far.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 2, 2015 1:09:38 GMT -5
There is some noise with RPM, but there is noise with any stat, including PER (Hassan Whiteside above LeBron James, Derek Favors over Marc Gasol, Amare Stodamire over Tyson Chandler). When a guy like Johnson has consistently ranked well by holistic measures of value and gets scouting love for his defense and screening, that's almost certainly real and not a mirage. I don't know anything about his medicals, but he's not even 30 yet, and unless the ankle problems are chronic degeneration, he has a good chance of bouncing back. Neither Sullinger nor Olynyk can defend their own position, let alone operate in the kind of team defense that is so en vogue these days. Johnson is the kind of guy who can both protect the rim (somewhat) but also hedge on PnRs. He can stretch the floor but also bang for rebounds inside. His versatility is one of his selling points. I'm excited to watch him in Stevens' system. Sure he'll be an upgrade on D over Sullinger and Olynyk, but he isn't good at scoring and doesn't rebound that well. Is that worth 12 million? I don't think so. If he signed a contract like Brandan Wright signed I would have liked the signing. Its the 12 million that makes this such a bad singing.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 2, 2015 1:14:09 GMT -5
On other news Crowder resigned for 5 years and 35 million. Not sure how I feel about this signing. Have no problem with 7 million, a little surprised he got 5 years though. But with the cap rising so much in the next few years 7 million is going to be the price of an average role player and he is very young with a lot of upside.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 2, 2015 5:41:40 GMT -5
Bulpett is reporting that Boston is no longer in on Harris.
I'm guessing they sit and wait until dust settles on free agency and the trade market opens up.
Speaking of trades, can't believe how badly Philly just took advantage of Sacramento ' s desperation to clear cap space. Wow!
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Post by jmei on Jul 2, 2015 8:08:47 GMT -5
in this market, $12m for guy like Johnson is a bargain. Thad Young is a similar player who got a higher AAV for more years. DeMarre Carroll, Iman Shumpert, Danny Green, Tristan Thompson, etc. Guys like Robin Lopez are going to get similar money. As mentioned, it's not like there was a better place to spend it.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jul 2, 2015 10:41:09 GMT -5
Monroe signs a max deal with the Bucks. Can Boston really not even keep up with Milwaukee in appealing to NBA FA's? That's upsetting.
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Post by jmei on Jul 2, 2015 11:48:31 GMT -5
Monroe signs a max deal with the Bucks. Can Boston really not even keep up with Milwaukee in appealing to NBA FA's? That's upsetting. Not sure we really ever pursued him. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 2, 2015 14:42:41 GMT -5
According to Bulpett, Boston didn't reach out.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 2, 2015 15:29:47 GMT -5
Much more worried if I'm the Knicks who seem to be reaching out to everyone, have all the money they need (and space), the nightlife, etc and are STILL struggling to get takers.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 3, 2015 12:38:12 GMT -5
Per rotoworld:
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,860
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 3, 2015 15:23:29 GMT -5
Monroe signs a max deal with the Bucks. Can Boston really not even keep up with Milwaukee in appealing to NBA FA's? That's upsetting. Love Monroe, but he's a bad value at max money. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 3, 2015 17:08:27 GMT -5
Monroe signs a max deal with the Bucks. Can Boston really not even keep up with Milwaukee in appealing to NBA FA's? That's upsetting. Love Monroe, but he's a bad value at max money. How can you say that? Do you know that max level deals value very based on service time in NBA? Monroe signed a three year deal for right around 50 million. So that's like 17 million a year. The cap is going over a 100 million in two years, that's a great deal. Heck only downside is that they couldn't get him to sign a 5 year deal.
This board is going crazy they like Johnson at 12 million a year, but don't like Monroe at 17 million. Monroe is twice the player that Johnson is. Monroe would have been a building block that could have helped you land future free agents. Monroe is also 3 years younger and has not shown the decline that Johnson has.
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