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2015 Boston Celtics Offseason
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Post by jmei on Jul 3, 2015 17:11:02 GMT -5
Monroe is twice the player that Johnson is. LOL |
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,860
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 3, 2015 21:59:15 GMT -5
Love Monroe, but he's a bad value at max money. How can you say that? Do you know that max level deals value very based on service time in NBA? Monroe signed a three year deal for right around 50 million. So that's like 17 million a year. The cap is going over a 100 million in two years, that's a great deal. Heck only downside is that they couldn't get him to sign a 5 year deal.
This board is going crazy they like Johnson at 12 million a year, but don't like Monroe at 17 million. Monroe is twice the player that Johnson is. Monroe would have been a building block that could have helped you land future free agents. Monroe is also 3 years younger and has not shown the decline that Johnson has.
Blah, blah, blah. Take a breath, dude. I never said a single thing about Johnson, so that's irrelevant. I love Monroe as a player, but he's getting max money at a position that's not very valuable anymore, and he isn't a very versatile player on the defensive end..which is absolutely crucial these days for post players. I don't think he'll be a disaster, but he just won't be a good value. |
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Post by philarhody on Jul 4, 2015 20:12:06 GMT -5
Love Monroe, but he's a bad value at max money. How can you say that? Do you know that max level deals value very based on service time in NBA? Monroe signed a three year deal for right around 50 million. So that's like 17 million a year. The cap is going over a 100 million in two years, that's a great deal. Heck only downside is that they couldn't get him to sign a 5 year deal.
This board is going crazy they like Johnson at 12 million a year, but don't like Monroe at 17 million. Monroe is twice the player that Johnson is. Monroe would have been a building block that could have helped you land future free agents. Monroe is also 3 years younger and has not shown the decline that Johnson has.
Go back through this thread umass. No one's arguing with you because they don't like you. You're just very argumentative. Case in point; You dismissed my idea of a Cousins trade on the first page of of this thread because you hated the idea of selling low on Marcus Smart. The same Marcus Smart who sported a 11.0 PER last season. However, you then professed your dislike for the Johnson signing partly due to his inability to equate Jared Sullinger's PER. Surely such a staunch Smart supporter would understand the value of defense and intangibles for a frontcourt that has very little of those two things? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 6, 2015 9:47:41 GMT -5
Sure Johnson will help us and like I've said its not the player I hate, it's the contract. When you are getting 12 million you can't just bring D and intangibles. That's why I used PER, as I feel a player making 12 million a year should be more then a league average player and that's what PER says Johnson is based on his stats. Sure his D and intangible raise his value, but 12 million a year?
Also Johnson is on the decline. At one time Johnson was seen as one of the best defensive PF in the game, per Kevin Pelton his D last year was below average at PF, but very good at center. Johnson is losing his athletic ability and has very bad ankles. An issue that Pelton says will make him a full time center going forward. Also while Johnson is very good at D, he is not going to be a force as a rim protector.
Kosta Koufos got 4 years and 33 million from the Kings and based on RPM was a way better defensive player last year then Johnson. Sure Johnson had a better overall RPM, but that's just because Koufos is not very good at scoring. If you wanted a true defensive anchor Koufos was the guy and he's making only 8.25 million a year. Looking at only defensive RPM Koufos was the 20th best defensive player in the league last year, while Johnson was 89th. Also add in that Koufos is two years younger then Johnson and has show no signs of decline. Steal of the off season so for in my book. The Kings are starting to make smart moves, watch out NBA.
As for Smart, its his upside that I am in love with. I will be the first to admit that I was shocked that he had a PER that low and that his FG% was so low. His 3 point shooting was actually not bad, it was his mid range game and scoring at the rim that was just horrible. Based on his track record in college I have to believe that he focused on D his first year and that next year we should start to see major improvement in his offensive game. If Smarts career PER ends up being the same as Johnson for his career I will have been very wrong about Smart.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,860
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 6, 2015 10:11:21 GMT -5
Unlike baseball, PER is a very meh statistic for basketball.
And I wouldn't be concerned about the FG percentage - I expect that to jump a bit for his second year. Rookie guards rarely shoot a great percentage in the NBA, and Smart also changed his stroke on the fly. If he doesn't show some improvement this year, then it's time to start being concerned.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 7, 2015 13:48:21 GMT -5
Stein is reporting that Boston has traded for David Lee. No sense of what's going out yet.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 7, 2015 13:48:42 GMT -5
Now reporting it's Gerald Wallace for David Lee.
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Post by jmei on Jul 7, 2015 13:51:12 GMT -5
Now reporting it's Gerald Wallace for David Lee. Ainge probably thinks he can flip Lee at the deadline. PF is getting awfully crowded in the meantime, though. Maybe GS is also throwing in a pick (though I think they've already traded some of their upcoming first rounders). |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 7, 2015 13:59:47 GMT -5
Why would Golden State throw in a pick? Sure Lee makes more money, but he is by far and away the better player. That being said there has to be another trade coming, as we now have way to many PF and not enough SF.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 7, 2015 14:14:21 GMT -5
The point about PF's I get but with Turner, J Crowder and J Young, how many SFs do you need?
While it's likely that there will be another move (or moves) in the future, I don't think that the move is already in place. This is just more evidence of upgrading in steps (Lee obviously better than Wallace) while not handcuffing yourself for the bigger move.
Boston has redundancies all over the place and they won't have to create a hole to make a move for an upgrade.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2015 14:33:06 GMT -5
Sure Johnson will help us and like I've said its not the player I hate, it's the contract. When you are getting 12 million you can't just bring D and intangibles. That's why I used PER, as I feel a player making 12 million a year should be more then a league average player and that's what PER says Johnson is based on his stats. Sure his D and intangible raise his value, but 12 million a year? PER doesn't really seem to take into account defense, or properly account for it anyway. I'd suggest checking his RPM, which was 1.83, and his WAR, which was 5ish, because, as a guy who's probably best as a defensive player and screener in the pick and roll, the advanced stats based off the SportVu data are most likely going to be a better measure. And it's worth noting that the 2nd year isn't guaranteed, so he becomes a great trade chip next year if we're still trying to collect as many assets as possible, which I think is quite likely, given how unlikely it is Kevin Durant comes to Boston and the weakness of the rest of next year's free agent class |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 7, 2015 14:53:36 GMT -5
Sure Johnson will help us and like I've said its not the player I hate, it's the contract. When you are getting 12 million you can't just bring D and intangibles. That's why I used PER, as I feel a player making 12 million a year should be more then a league average player and that's what PER says Johnson is based on his stats. Sure his D and intangible raise his value, but 12 million a year? PER doesn't really seem to take into account defense, or properly account for it anyway. I'd suggest checking his RPM, which was 1.83, and his WAR, which was 5ish, because, as a guy who's probably best as a defensive player and screener in the pick and roll, the advanced stats based off the SportVu data are most likely going to be a better measure. And it's worth noting that the 2nd year isn't guaranteed, so he becomes a great trade chip next year if we're still trying to collect as many assets as possible, which I think is quite likely, given how unlikely it is Kevin Durant comes to Boston and the weakness of the rest of next year's free agent class I've looked at RPM, I actually said in the post you are refer too how Johnson ranked 89th in defensive RPM. So he's a good defensive player, but in no way an elite defensive player. Example Tony Allen was 4th in defensive RPM, has a PER just below Johnson, but makes under 5 million a year.
Also like I've said many times before with the Cap going crazy over the next few years, a non guaranteed contract next year is not going to be that valuable as most teams will have the cap room to sign a free agent to a max level deal.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 7, 2015 15:17:36 GMT -5
The point about PF's I get but with Turner, J Crowder and J Young, how many SFs do you need? While it's likely that there will be another move (or moves) in the future, I don't think that the move is already in place. This is just more evidence of upgrading in steps (Lee obviously better than Wallace) while not handcuffing yourself for the bigger move. Boston has redundancies all over the place and they won't have to create a hole to make a move for an upgrade. Well I don't think James Young has gained enough strength to be counted on at small forward just yet. His first summer league game only gives me more worries. On a team that clearly has its sight sets on being better then last year, do you really think James Young is ready to play 15-20 minutes a night if Turner or Crowder goes down for a long period of time?
As bad as Wallace was last year, he was still a good defensive player that knew how to play within the teams offence. I just cringe at the thought of Young having to play meaningful minutes against elite small forwards in this league. Its this very reason why I think the Celtics have Young listed as a SG and not a SF. While I think long term Young will be a SF, I am beginning to think its going to take another year or two. He might need a Gerald Green type development.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 7, 2015 15:49:02 GMT -5
Sure, I see your point but I thought you were just talking about bodies at each position. There is room for an upgrade at EVERY position.
I'd also point out that there were times where Smart served as the SF so I'm not worried about the scenario where 1 of Turner/Crowder go down.
Don't get me wrong, I'd be shocked if Boston goes into Opening Night with this roster as constructed. I'm just not worried about how many PFs vs how many SFs they have.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 7, 2015 15:51:08 GMT -5
On a slightly separate note, I'd forgotten about how good (albeit 1-dimensionally) David Lee was prior to last season. Pretty much an 18 and 10 guy before the hamstring injury and rise of Draymond Green got in the way.
I'll take that for Gerald Wallace any day.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2015 0:23:36 GMT -5
Oh yea this is a slam dunk deal based on talent. David Lee still has a lot left in the tank. But Sullinger, Lee and Olynyk is a whole of lot of offence and not a lot of D. Also add in Zeller and Johnson and that 5 players and 96 minutes a night. Those players need more then 19.2 minutes a night. Have to think another trade is in the future. If not we might have the most front court depth in the league. Also increases trade options as we now have a bigger expiring deal on a player that can still play, which is huge.
This is just a great deal.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 6:33:36 GMT -5
Eh, David Lee is one of the worst big-man defenders in the league, which offsets a big chunk (if not all) of his offensive value. He's better than Wallace, but I'm not sure how much better he is.
Just a gut feeling, but I suspect Sullinger is the odd man out. Ainge seems to be tired of his work ethic/conditioning issues, and an acquiring team can still dream on his upside.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 8, 2015 6:38:14 GMT -5
Yes. That was the 1 dimension that I was referring to.
Agreed on Sully. He makes the most sense.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 8, 2015 9:14:38 GMT -5
The signings of Johnson and Jerebko were great because they were one year deals (essentially) with the option of being a second one year deal and they stopped any chance of Danny being pressured into paying a second rate player too much money over multiple years.
The trade for Lee was great because you improved the player and increased the dollar value of your expiring contract.
In total, the players can help the team be a little more competitive this season, add competition for the younger players to earn their time and provide trade chips during the year. They still leave you with all the flexibility you had for next year.
The Monroe to Milwaukee and Aldrich and West to San Antonio signings are great news for Boston. It gives hope that top free agents might come here once the right foundation is in place. We need to understand that could take a while and making the playoffs hurt that movement last year. Winslow would have been nice in Green.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,880
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Post by atzar on Jul 8, 2015 9:37:57 GMT -5
A few C's-related thoughts:
I really like the Lee deal. You just traded Wallace for a starter. If he comes in and proves that he's still a starter, then you have a guy you can trade before the deadline - somebody will think they're a big man away from making a run. His expiring deal makes him that much more valuable as a trade chip.
Even if he sucks and doesn't help us win, you let him expire just like you would have done with Wallace. The only downside is the potential outcome that sees us with a successful David Lee in March and April, which is probably just good enough to land us in another unwinnable first round series. But I kind of think that's unlikely.
It's funny to read the Celtics sites sometimes. They get whipped into a frenzy by the media - first the draft day trades, now Young's titanic improvements - and then start looking for things to burn when it turns out to be nothing more than fluff. I'm not saying it was wrong to expect Young to improve, but summer league isn't when he's going to show it. If anything, the new bulk he gained probably has his shot out of sync and it may take some time to find the stroke again.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 9:56:13 GMT -5
The problem with trading Lee midseason is that he has a sizable contract, and few contenders will be able to cobble together the salaries necessary to comply with the salary-matching rules. That's especially true if the Celtics are only willing to accept expiring contracts in return.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2015 10:08:39 GMT -5
Eh, David Lee is one of the worst big-man defenders in the league, which offsets a big chunk (if not all) of his offensive value. He's better than Wallace, but I'm not sure how much better he is. Just a gut feeling, but I suspect Sullinger is the odd man out. Ainge seems to be tired of his work ethic/conditioning issues, and an acquiring team can still dream on his upside. Wallace played 32 games last year on the 7th seed in the East, can't shoot, and lost the one attribute (crazy athleticism) that enabled him to be a really good NBA player a couple years ago. Lee is a year removed from 18 and 9 with 52% shooting from the floor. I think it's pretty safe to say he's a major improvement. I won't be cringing every time he gets in the game at any rate, which is what happened every time Gerald Wallace got off the bench the last 2 years. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 8, 2015 11:55:14 GMT -5
ESPN Reporting that DeAndre Jordan is having 2nd thoughts on signing with Dallas. Would love to see him go back to LAC. Get that Dallas pick into the lottery (though not too high)
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 11:58:12 GMT -5
Eh, David Lee is one of the worst big-man defenders in the league, which offsets a big chunk (if not all) of his offensive value. He's better than Wallace, but I'm not sure how much better he is. Just a gut feeling, but I suspect Sullinger is the odd man out. Ainge seems to be tired of his work ethic/conditioning issues, and an acquiring team can still dream on his upside. Wallace played 32 games last year on the 7th seed in the East, can't shoot, and lost the one attribute (crazy athleticism) that enabled him to be a really good NBA player a couple years ago. Lee is a year removed from 18 and 9 with 52% shooting from the floor. I think it's pretty safe to say he's a major improvement. I won't be cringing every time he gets in the game at any rate, which is what happened every time Gerald Wallace got off the bench the last 2 years. Lee is better than Wallace. But does having Lee instead of Wallace on the roster make the Celtics better as a team? They'll have to give him minutes (presumably, that was an explicit or implicit condition of the trade), and I'm not sure that he is better than Johnson or Sullinger or Olynyk, and he certainly is unlikely to in their long-term plans. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2015 12:38:12 GMT -5
Eh, David Lee is one of the worst big-man defenders in the league, which offsets a big chunk (if not all) of his offensive value. He's better than Wallace, but I'm not sure how much better he is. Just a gut feeling, but I suspect Sullinger is the odd man out. Ainge seems to be tired of his work ethic/conditioning issues, and an acquiring team can still dream on his upside. Come on, one of the worst big man defenders in the league? The numbers don't back that up. Last year had only a RPM of .05, offence was .40 and D was -.35, but in 2013/2014 he had a RPM of 1.22, offence was -.13 and D was 1.35 which rated has 16 best PF in league and a WAR of 5.24. Sure he isn't a great defender, heck he probably isn't a good defender, but he is about league average. You could do a lot worse then Lees D at PF.
I would start Sullinger and Zeller and have Johnson and Lee play together on the second unit. We could win a lot of games because our bench is better then the other teams. so far it looks like overall depth is going to be teams greatest strength.
Sullinger seems like the likely one to get traded, but it doesn't make sense at this time. If your Danny do you call out Sullinger the way he has if he was thinking about trading him? It makes no sense, our own GM has lowered his trade value by like 50%. I get he was trying to motivate him, but he didn't need to do it so publicly. At this point could we get anything for Sullinger? I still see a player that if in shape will give you 15-18 points and 8-10 rebounds, while playing OK D. You don't just trade that away for nothing unless the player is a cancer and I haven't seen any reports saying that Sullinger was a Cancer type player, just a little lazy.
Best I think you could get is a mid to late first round pick and we already have a crap load of those. Sullinger is already a better player then 90% of mid to late first round picks. Unless Danny can get some team to give him a pick that has a chance of being a lottery selection I'm not trading Sullinger. Would a team like the Pacers that really need a PF trade you a top 5 protected first round pick in 2017? I don't, they are too well run to gamble on something like that. Maybe the Knicks looking to get better ASAP and a huge need at PF would (everyone seems to think it will take their rookie 1-2 years to become a starter).
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