2015 Boston Celtics Offseason

Well his game we can agree to disagree on, but I don't think he's more valuable than Bradley, especially cause he can't really shoot at all, especially from deep, or even long 2s. If Bradley is allowed to play a less prominent role in the offense, which he probably will this year, I imagine that his defense will recover somewhat. Also, Turner is a definite minus defensively, just doesn't have the lateral quickness to stay with guys. He's also 26 and will definitely be looking for a raise next year which I wouldn't want to pay him. He's fine at $3m/year, when he's asking for $7-$8m next year they should let him walk

Here is why I mentioned "walking away" from Turner:

1. They need to get down to 15 guaranteed contracts
2. I wanted to give one more possibility besides PJIII
3. He's a non-shooting ball handler, something that our best player; our most likely candidate for a future star; and our #1 draft pick all can claim
4. He's a free agent after this year.

The likelihood of a move is probably as follows:

1. Release PJIII (assuming he hasn't shown the upside that he did when Durant was out)
2. Trade A player for a draft pick (in other words, the sum of all of the probabilities of any individual player getting traded) - actually, the math might even put this #1
3. Release a pending FA (which pretty much is Turner, maybe Jerebko but they seem to love him)
4. Trade a package of players for a better player

The thing with #2 is that it's kind of like the Lottery Odds. The number one team has a better chance than any other ONE team to win the lottery but less than the collective. So it's more likely that C's make a trade but I have no idea which player and the inherent likelihood of any ONE trade is less than releasing Turner. Strange logic, admittedly, but I'm not the only one who thought it's possible. Forsberg's Odd Man Out article cautioned not to rule out Turner.

I just looked at each individual player and was trying to see who Boston would A) want to get rid of and B) get something of value for that includes no other players (if it's just a "one Celtic outgoing" type of deal. Struggled to find one.

Given the cap situation for most teams, few have the ability to just absorb a player without something going out as well.

A package deal for an upgrade doesn't happen much so, again, I put that down at the bottom.

I hear you on Jerebko. I just feel like they LOVE him. But he should be in the list of candidates for sure.

Clearly the best team, spots 4-12 in the rotation.

They really are a very deep team. Smart, Thomas, Bradley, Turner, Crowder, Sullinger, Johnson, Jerebko, Lee, Zeller and Olynyk are all players who can play reliable minutes on a solid team. These are all players which I could see getting valuable minutes on a championship team. It's probably going to be very difficult for Young, Jones III, Rozier, Hunter and Mickey to get minutes, and all four could spend significant time in the D Leage.

Even if this team construction doesn't work, I'd be willing to bet that a contending team would gladly trade for any of these players, which gives Danny a lot of flexibility. They also have the depth to deal with any injury at really any position.

I believe in kids earning their spots and to be pushed but I think there needs to be a balance. I don't believe the kid needs to be more effective on the court than the veteran on the court. The kid just needs the right approach and work rate. At some point he needs to be more effective but as long as he's growing that's the important thing. I don't want Jerebko taking time from a kid who can be developing if that kid is working hard and improving. Jerebko helping to win games isn't more important.

The fellows at ESPN Insider would strongly disagree with you. They posit the next step for the C's is to win games to make the club attractive for a prospective game changing FA. Kevin Pelton expects the team as is to be superior to Atlanta in 2016. 

It's a fine read for those with Insider.

If we can get Horford and that Brooklyn pick turns into a top-5 pick, that's a 50+ win team that is extremely attractive to free agents

I think someone mentioned that ESPN's projections, presumably Pelton's, had the C's at 47, but personally I feel that's a little bullish. Plus the East is going to be better this year. Regardless, Horford would push them to being conference final contenders at least, and make them infinitely more attractive than they are now to free agents. Horford, Stevens, and a young core with cap flexibility and picks looks like an absolutely ideal spot for a true alpha dog star I'd say

Who went to the West that wasn't already there that really moves the needle? Anyway, list of East teams that appear to have improved this offseason/will improve next season through health or development, aside from us:
Hornets (Kaminsky, Hawes, no Lance)
Sixers (Okafor paired with Noel is a really good frontcourt)
Knicks (Melo plays, Porzingis, Lopez, Jerian Grant)
Raptors (Demarre Carroll)
Heat (Justise, full season of Dragic, Whiteside, healthy Bosh)
Bucks (Monroe, development)
Pacers (Paul George)
Magic (Development, Hezonja)

The Hawks lost Carroll and added Splitter and will probably slip a little, the Nets should suck, Detroit lost Monroe, and the Wizards replaced Paul Pierce with Jared Dudley, but should see more development out of Beal and Porter, so you can call them a wash. The Bulls are also tough to get a read on, but I think they'll benefit from not being run into the gorund by Thibs and they a couple fresh rotation guys (Mcdermott, Portis) to carry some of the burden that should be able to contribute this year. Aside from that, I'd expect every other team in the East to be better next year than they were last year, even the Cavs, with continuity and full seasons from Shump, Mozgov, and possibly JR, plus Mo Williams.

Zeller doesn't really offer the same skill set as Kaminsky or Hawes at all, he hasn't developed into the shooter people thought he would be. Biyombo is a loss, but not a huge one, and they also added Jeremy Lin to replace Williams, which I think could easily end up being a wash. Overall, I think it's pretty clear they got better, especially when you factor in Kemba Walker coming back from injury, and adding Nic Batum. With Toronto, that's fair, but they do still have Valanciunas, and James Johnson can block shots as well, plus Carroll is a massive improvement for their perimeter D, which mitigates losing rim protection. And I get your point with Philly, but they actually drafted a guy who can play his rookie season, so I'm taking that as a step in the right direction. Plus with all those young guys, you have to factor in some improvement internally, and it's not like they really lost anyone

Too bad; he might end up one of those guys who doesn't "get it" until he's in a new situation or facing leaving the league.  I bet he does turn at some point for the better, but I'm not sure how long the Celtics can wait for him, especially with a payday coming up.  Very frustrating because I really think he has unique skills and could work his way into being a top 50 player.