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2015 Boston Celtics Offseason
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Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2015 6:51:12 GMT -5
You like going for the safe double, I would go for the homerun even if it meant striking out. I don't think any of the players in this draft, other than Towns, are home runs. Certainly not Johnson or Turner, who are good players but are likely to top out well short of franchise-player level. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 17, 2015 7:40:52 GMT -5
I guarantee we won't get a lottery pick from New Jersey.  Keep Dreaming Wanna think about that for a sec? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 17, 2015 10:53:04 GMT -5
Wanna think about that for a sec? If you read my post a half page back you would see that I put a good amount of time into my answer and unlike you I gave a reason why I thought that.
So please explain how the #8th seed last year that had 4 players with a per above league average and has now released and traded two of those players without replacing them with any free agents with a per above league average is going to make the playoffs? They are a major injury to Lopez or Johnson away from maybe being the worst team in the east if not the whole NBA. They lack talent, plan and simple. They released Williams who was rated as the 15th best PG in the league last year and got nothing in return. What you think they got better?
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Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2015 11:01:47 GMT -5
The joke is that you said New Jersey. They don't play in New Jersey anymore.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 17, 2015 11:08:59 GMT -5
Not so much as who I would have signed its who he didn't go after at all. But I would have signed Greg Monroe and Tobias Harris. If you couldn't sign either or both ( you could have cleared the space needed to sign both), my fall back would have been Kosta Koufos, a guy that would have been a true defensive anchor at the center position. If you let the market play out, you could have got Amir Johnson on something like a 3 year 18 to 24 million deal. Neither Monroe or Harris were realistic targets (they both signed max salaries elsewhere). If they didn't target Johnson early with an aggressive offer, one of the teams who missed out on the first batch of FAs would have absolutely given him a lot more than 3/$24m. They overpaid in AAV for fewer years, which makes sense since they have cap space now that they weren't going to spend on anyone else and want to maintain cap flexibility going forward. Considering his age, I could have done Koufos instead. But he's a higher-risk higher-reward, and if you give him 4/$40m or so and he turns out to not be good enough offensively to be a first-division starter, that contract starts looking like dead weight even with the cap increase. He is a true center, which the Celtics lack, but in Stevens' motion offense, a more versatile big like Johnson (who can dribble and shoot) might be a better fit. How can you say they weren't realistic targets when word is we didn't go after them? That's my point, I am upset at the players we didn't even try for. You can't tell me that Monroe wouldn't have considered us if we put the full court press on. Danny and Stevens calling right when free agency opens. Maybe get some big names like Russell and Tommy to recruit. I wouldn't have been mad if Danny struck out, just that he didn't even want to get up and give it a shot. Same with Harris, if you recruited him hard and he came out and said I want to be a Celtic, they could have got him even if it took a trade. Look at the Mavs, a team that I think has a bleak future, they almost got a franchise center because they went all out.
As for Koufos he signed a 4 year 33 million deal. 8.25 million will be nothing in two years when the cap is over a 100 million
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 17, 2015 11:10:15 GMT -5
The joke is that you said New Jersey. They don't play in New Jersey anymore. Ok I got it. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 17, 2015 11:21:26 GMT -5
Won't happen, its a pipe dream. They will be able to add free agents for the next two years as the caps explodes, no need for a complete rebuild when you can simple add talent by way of free agents. Who are the 2016 free agents who are going to sign in New York? Durant is really the only stud, and after him and maybe Horford, the rest of the free agent class is pretty meh (Joe Johnson, Roy Hibbert, Joakim Noah, Conley, Nene, Al Jefferson, etc). If the Knicks struggle next year and can't add difference-making FAs, Melo is going on the trading block. I'm more worried about the fact that, with so many teams having cap space, he'd want to be traded to somewhere other than Boston. You got a source in the front office? Because you are acting like you are 100% sure and it just makes no sense. If Jackson was going to blow up the team he would have done so already. He could get a big return for Melo right now and make sure he gets another high lottery pick next year. Instead they went out and added free agents. Every where Jackson has won it was with Stars, I highly doubt he trades his only star that just resigned a year ago. Here's a name I think they go after Wade, they might be crazy enough to give him a long term max deal and I don't think Wade would turn that down. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 17, 2015 11:31:50 GMT -5
You like going for the safe double, I would go for the homerun even if it meant striking out. I don't think any of the players in this draft, other than Towns, are home runs. Certainly not Johnson or Turner, who are good players but are likely to top out well short of franchise-player level. I think Russell and Okafor have a really good chance of being homeruns. I look at Johnson and see a mix of Ron Artest and Paul Pierce. You can debate what the chances are of Johnson and Turner being homeruns, but you can't debate that both have a chance to become one. They both have huge upside.
History tells us that chances are there will be more then one homerun in this draft, more like 3-5 because most draft experts called this a very good and deep class of prospects.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 17, 2015 11:54:35 GMT -5
The disconnect seems to be over the definition of a "home run". Whereas JMei makes reference to franchise-player level and UMass says there will be more than 1 in this draft (suggesting that every draft has more than 1 franchise-level player, if we're talking about the same thing) and likely 3-5 (not many drafts have that number of franchise-level players).
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 20, 2015 9:48:35 GMT -5
Who are the 2016 free agents who are going to sign in New York? Durant is really the only stud, and after him and maybe Horford, the rest of the free agent class is pretty meh (Joe Johnson, Roy Hibbert, Joakim Noah, Conley, Nene, Al Jefferson, etc). If the Knicks struggle next year and can't add difference-making FAs, Melo is going on the trading block. I'm more worried about the fact that, with so many teams having cap space, he'd want to be traded to somewhere other than Boston. You got a source in the front office? Because you are acting like you are 100% sure and it just makes no sense. If Jackson was going to blow up the team he would have done so already. He could get a big return for Melo right now and make sure he gets another high lottery pick next year. Instead they went out and added free agents. Every where Jackson has won it was with Stars, I highly doubt he trades his only star that just resigned a year ago. Here's a name I think they go after Wade, they might be crazy enough to give him a long term max deal and I don't think Wade would turn that down. Well there was a lot of speculation that if they couldn't get any of the top 3 guys, they'd trade down and get veterans, and what they've done for now looks like they've put themselves in the middle ground, but could very easily wind up being a rebuild if they flip Melo, and if they struggle next year, he'll be 32 with 2 more guaranteed years on his contract. He won't fit with the general age of the team, and they won't give him much of a chance to win without major upgrades that might be difficult to make. So it's a very reasonable assumption that he could be on the block next year. On Wade, I don't think Phil Jackson is an idiot, so I'm pretty sure that's not in the cards, unless it's at a very reasonable salary for a guy who misses 25+ games a year, and I don't see Wade as a fit anyway. There's a lot of redundancy in the skill set with Melo. Also, I don't think Phil says to himself, "I need another guy with a reputation as a star that's going into his twilight years." Pretty sure if they sign a star, it'll be a guy who's actually still a star, not a guy with a big rep and shot knees |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 20, 2015 16:14:00 GMT -5
When I say homerun I don't mean franchise player, as there are very few of them in the whole NBA. I see a homerun as an all star level player. For example if Stanley Johnson turns into a Ron Artest or Paul Pierce type of player I see that as a homerun. But I don't think Ron Artest or Paul Pierce were ever franchise type players, though in their prime they were very close.
But I also think a homerun can be a late first round pick or second rounder turning into a quality starter.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 20, 2015 17:01:44 GMT -5
C's sign Mickey. First 2 yrs guaranteed. I haven't looked at terms but word is its a sweeter deal than some late 1st rounders.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 20, 2015 17:20:19 GMT -5
Umass, I think you are overlooking the fact that Monroe and Harris plus what we have now is not a Championship team. So why use the cap space on them. I liked them too but they are not Max players for a team that doesn't have stars in place. It made sense for Milwaukee to get Monroe because it symbolized them signing a free agent and they are betting on the other guys they have in house to be franchise players, which makes a lot more sense than the Celtics doing that, you can go
Over the cap to sign guys you have but once you are over the cap you are screwed in signing outside players. Therefore, you are better off being patient and getting your guys you want in house first then using the cap space to get the missing outside pieces so you can go over it with your own guys. Danny was smart to be patient this year. Your team would have left them in purgatory. Harris and Monroe plus current team would be good but never compete for a title.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 21, 2015 18:41:04 GMT -5
Umass, I think you are overlooking the fact that Monroe and Harris plus what we have now is not a Championship team. So why use the cap space on them. I liked them too but they are not Max players for a team that doesn't have stars in place. It made sense for Milwaukee to get Monroe because it symbolized them signing a free agent and they are betting on the other guys they have in house to be franchise players, which makes a lot more sense than the Celtics doing that, you can go Over the cap to sign guys you have but once you are over the cap you are screwed in signing outside players. Therefore, you are better off being patient and getting your guys you want in house first then using the cap space to get the missing outside pieces so you can go over it with your own guys. Danny was smart to be patient this year. Your team would have left them in purgatory. Harris and Monroe plus current team would be good but never compete for a title.
What your saying would have been 100% true years back and I wouldn't have wanted to give Max money to guys that really aren't max players, but this isn't a few years ago. Signing Monroe and Harris wouldn't have stopped the Celtics from adding a max player for the next two years. The team wouldn't have been in purgatory at all.
I think adding those player would have made the Celtics much more attractive to free agents in the next two years. The team would have been much closer or at the point when one very good free agent could have made them legit contenders.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 21, 2015 18:42:47 GMT -5
C's sign Mickey. First 2 yrs guaranteed. I haven't looked at terms but word is its a sweeter deal than some late 1st rounders. Yea 4 years 5 million deal. Which is a ton for a second round pick. |
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,860
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 21, 2015 19:14:22 GMT -5
Giving out max contracts to non-max-level players just because you have the money is the absolute wrong approach to take. It rarely works in baseball, where there isn't even a cap, and it's a direct path to mediocrity in bball.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 22, 2015 15:33:52 GMT -5
Giving out max contracts to non-max-level players just because you have the money is the absolute wrong approach to take. It rarely works in baseball, where there isn't even a cap, and it's a direct path to mediocrity in bball. You can't compare Basketball to Baseball in regards to free agents. Both Monroe and Harris are entering or yet to reach their prime of there careers. In baseball most free agents sign much longer deals that take them well past their prime and they are much older when signing the deals. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 22, 2015 15:44:13 GMT -5
You guys have to understand that what looks like an overpay this offseason will not look that way in two years when the cap is close to double what it currently is. I am not saying you do this all the time, just this offseason is a special case as the economics in the NBA are changing in a big way.
More then one NBA writer has said that chance are there will not be a bad contract given out this year. So while you might think Reggie Jackson getting 80 million over 5 years is way to much, when the cap is 70 million. It won't look bad when the cap is close to double that. The percentage of cap space he takes will almost be cut in half. Today his contract is like 23% of the Pistons cap, in two years it will be like 12%. A max contract this year, will be the going rate for good role players going forward.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,860
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 22, 2015 15:46:47 GMT -5
We all understand that.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 22, 2015 18:08:02 GMT -5
I really don't think you do, otherwise your second to last post makes no sense. |
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,860
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 22, 2015 19:04:04 GMT -5
It makes perfect sense, and there's a reason no one else on here is on your side.
To clarify, it's not because you're smarter than everyone.
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Post by jmei on Jul 22, 2015 19:31:55 GMT -5
Simmer down now.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 23, 2015 9:05:15 GMT -5
What your saying would have been 100% true years back and I wouldn't have wanted to give Max money to guys that really aren't max players, but this isn't a few years ago. Signing Monroe and Harris wouldn't have stopped the Celtics from adding a max player for the next two years. The team wouldn't have been in purgatory at all.
I think adding those player would have made the Celtics much more attractive to free agents in the next two years. The team would have been much closer or at the point when one very good free agent could have made them legit contenders. Doubtful that we would've had the room for both Monroe and Harris, but even beyond that, I think we're better off with a young core than adding 2 guys on big contracts that realistically probably aren't star players. Monroe especially I don't see as a fit. We need a big who protects the paint, not another offense-oriented guy without the athleticism to defend the pick and roll well or block shots. Our current team +Monroe and Harris maybe gets us to 45ish wins, possibly a couple more, but it doesn't do us much good in the long run in my opinion. I'd rather give as much playing time to the younger guys as possible and see who emerges. That way you keep as much flexibility as possible and have more of a chance of developing young cost controlled starters, role players, and trade chips |
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 23, 2015 9:49:06 GMT -5
What your saying would have been 100% true years back and I wouldn't have wanted to give Max money to guys that really aren't max players, but this isn't a few years ago. Signing Monroe and Harris wouldn't have stopped the Celtics from adding a max player for the next two years. The team wouldn't have been in purgatory at all.
I think adding those player would have made the Celtics much more attractive to free agents in the next two years. The team would have been much closer or at the point when one very good free agent could have made them legit contenders. … Our current team +Monroe and Harris maybe gets us to 45ish wins, possibly a couple more … Stat guys at ESPN (Pelton? Elhassan? Dolittle? I forget which one), based on RPM, project current roster to 47 wins. |
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 23, 2015 10:20:04 GMT -5
… Our current team +Monroe and Harris maybe gets us to 45ish wins, possibly a couple more … Stat guys at ESPN (Pelton? Elhassan? Dolittle? I forget which one), based on RPM, project current roster to 47 wins. Really? That seems high, but regardless, if you add Monroe and Harris, you lose Johnson, possibly Jerebko, David Lee, and you probably have to add Gerald Wallace back in too, which (I'm guessing) would be subtraction by addition. Not to mention that I don't know where we'd get $32-$35mil in cap space, we had about 26m at the start of free agency from what I remember |
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