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Post by jimed14 on Feb 14, 2017 16:04:08 GMT -5
Everyone thinks they are money in the first round and not so good in second round. For one they have more than twice as many picks in second round, so your going to get some busts. Second when the first round doesn't have players they like they trade down to second round. I've seen the draft of Chung, Brace, Butler and Vollmer rated as a C for that round. All because Brace was a total bust. I laugh at that, 3 picks out of 4 are currently quality starters. Sure Pats got rid of Butler too soon. Rare case of Bill the coach letting down Bill the GM. Still how many teams can pick 3 starters in one round out of 4 picks? Teams who don't pick starters in the 2nd round regularly tend to be bad teams more often than not. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 14, 2017 17:06:55 GMT -5
Everyone thinks they are money in the first round and not so good in second round. For one they have more than twice as many picks in second round, so your going to get some busts. Second when the first round doesn't have players they like they trade down to second round. I've seen the draft of Chung, Brace, Butler and Vollmer rated as a C for that round. All because Brace was a total bust. I laugh at that, 3 picks out of 4 are currently quality starters. Sure Pats got rid of Butler too soon. Rare case of Bill the coach letting down Bill the GM. Still how many teams can pick 3 starters in one round out of 4 picks? Teams who don't pick starters in the 2nd round regularly tend to be bad teams more often than not. So you think it's easy to make 4 picks in second round of one draft and get 3 starters? Are you trying to say the Pat's are bad at drafting in 2nd round? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 14, 2017 17:06:57 GMT -5
The patriots have very rarely completely traded out of he first round.. there was a stretch where they had acquired an extra first and they basically traded it every year for a second and a future first. Then spy gate penalty took that away and now teams don't trade a second and first for a first. So those trade downs early on weren't really - he was trying to turn one first into infinite seconds and he did for a few years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 14, 2017 18:08:13 GMT -5
The patriots have very rarely completely traded out of he first round.. there was a stretch where they had acquired an extra first and they basically traded it every year for a second and a future first. Then spy gate penalty took that away and now teams don't trade a second and first for a first. So those trade downs early on weren't really - he was trying to turn one first into infinite seconds and he did for a few years. Bill has traded 5 first round picks that moved the pick out of the first round. In 2013, 2011, 2009, 2007 and 2003. In four of those years he got a 2nd round pick. In 2003 and 2011 they did have two first round picks. They were also going to trade out of first round completely if Brown didn't fall to them. The Pats trade out of first round more than any team. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 14, 2017 19:06:27 GMT -5
Right that was my basic point. I wasn't disagreeing with you about their willingness to trade out but they don't typically trade completely out. I don't count them trading for a future first as them trading completely out.
They certainly won't take a guy they don't have first rd value on just to make the pick..
However, I think they would love a high first in this draft. I bet they also use their first this year... seems like a deep enough draft that they would want to.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 14, 2017 19:45:20 GMT -5
Well any team would love a high first round pick.
As to Pat's making there pick at end of first round, I have no clue right now. It all depends on how many prospects get first round grades and if players fall. I haven't even started my draft research yet. Do you know how many prospects have first round grades?
I will say with the QBs in this class, I could easily see a team at top of second round trading up to get the guy they want and getting a 5th year option. So those last few picks of the first round might become hot targets.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 15, 2017 13:48:03 GMT -5
It isn't about first round picks. Harvard Business School looked at this a few years ago. The best value, performance to signing cost, is in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. No surprise that the Patriots have made most of their living there.
There are exceptions - Wilfork & Gronkowski for example. But that's probably why they trade down so often. Analysts say there's tremendous depth to this years draft, so we may see the team stock up in those rounds again.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 16, 2017 6:01:19 GMT -5
Burt Brier (spelling?) was on Comcast Network and said that he doesn't think Hightower will get the franchise tag. Hightower would be slated to make 14.6 million, and that would pay him outside linebacker money. Hightower is a inside linebacker. He thinks the Patriots will wait to see how his market plays out and hope his price comes at 11-12 million a year and will try to match it.
Yesterday was the first day that he could get franchised and he didn't get the tag yet.
There's a good chance that the Patriots could lose Hightower if some team gets stupid and pays him Von Miller money. It's always possible if the Patriots aren't tagging him.
Burt also said he thinks that the Patriots will overpay a little to keep Alan Branch on the team.
I told everyone that I wouldn't be surprised to see everyone on the defense with the exception of maybe two players will leave in free agency. It looks like the two players that will stay is Butler and Branch by early indications. Now with each day passing, it even looks like Hightower has a higher and higher chance of leaving too. Bill Belicheck isn't afraid to make the tough decisions. Go get draft picks for Jimmy G. and go rebuild the defense this offseason.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 16, 2017 7:25:38 GMT -5
The Patriots (Bill Belicheck) never like signing players to a really bad deal. They'll will walk away or trade that player before their contracts get ridiculous (Seymour, Revis). They'll reach and overpay a bit for a player they might like or want to extend, but they will never get stupid to keep a player. All these guys like Logan Ryan, Hightower, Bennett, and Harmon seem like they'll get grossly overpaid.
Forgot to mention in my last post, but the guy Brier said he would put the franchise tag on is Bennett. He's got a cap hit of 9.8 million this year if he got franchised as a tight end. I'm not totally unopposed to this idea. He was a decent player that played hurt most of the year and he looked awesome when he was healthy early on in the year. He's durable and you know he'll play through tough injuries. It would be nice to have Gronk insurance at tight end. The only thing is that Bennett wants to get paid and I don't know if he would hold out if he got tagged. On a one year deal, it's not a bad idea.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 16, 2017 7:59:05 GMT -5
Nothing will surprise me regarding Belichick; he likes having a lot of mid money guys 4-8M per year versus the highest paid guys. It's one reason why I think it's a good chance they resign Ryan and Harmon.
But they aren't afraid to pay a guy his market rate either; but very rarely will they set the market. Even with McCourty, they let the market get set then signed him. Tell me this... name me one player the Patriots have lost to free agency in the Prime of his career that was one of the best at his position? Ty Law comes the closest I can think of but he was on the wrong side of 30...
I know Bill will stay true to his process but do we really think they won't push hard to try to keep most of this defense together? They are financially tough but over time they typically spend near the top of the league in cash spending. Last year they were dead last by over 30m. That tells me they are gearing up to spend. Maybe it's on the D... maybe it's on over paying a back up QB... who knows?
#blitzfor6
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 16, 2017 8:12:19 GMT -5
I think Seymour is a good guy to point to, and even Chandler Jones were both players they'd let go who they didn't want to pay. They didn't lose them to free agency, but they knew they weren't going to be able to give them the money they wanted.
Seymour was great for the Raiders and Jones was great last year for the Cardinals.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 16, 2017 8:22:50 GMT -5
Also it's one thing to pay a safety (like McCourty) the highest amount of dollars compared to any position on defense really. Safety might be the cheapest position to overpay on defense, hence where you see the 'value' play come in.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 16, 2017 8:23:07 GMT -5
I think Seymour is a good guy to point to, and even Chandler Jones were both players they'd let go who they didn't want to pay. They didn't lose them to free agency, but they knew they weren't going to be able to give them the money they wanted. Seymour was great for the Raiders and Jones was great last year for the Cardinals. Yea but they fit my point. They traded them because they didn't want to pay them. The fact they didn't trade Hightower tells me they are going to pay him. I think the tag makes sense I don't care if it's a one year over pay. Let's you try and draft and develop a replacement and gives you another year at a time you have the room to do it. That being said... 5 years at 12 per makes sense too especially structured in a way that the 5th year is easy to cut. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 16, 2017 8:26:48 GMT -5
I just agree with Burt Brier in thinking that the Patriots won't tag Hightower because he's going to get paid as a outside linebacker versus a inside linebacker. There's no value in that for the Patriots, and that's really what Bill looks for.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 16, 2017 9:05:40 GMT -5
Burt Brier (spelling?) was on Comcast Network and said that he doesn't think Hightower will get the franchise tag. Hightower would be slated to make 14.6 million, and that would pay him outside linebacker money. Hightower is a inside linebacker. He thinks the Patriots will wait to see how his market plays out and hope his price comes at 11-12 million a year and will try to match it. Yesterday was the first day that he could get franchised and he didn't get the tag yet. I just agree with Burt Brier in thinking that the Patriots won't tag Hightower because he's going to get paid as a outside linebacker versus a inside linebacker. There's no value in that for the Patriots, and that's really what Bill looks for. I disagree with this. Yeah, Hightower played primarily inside this season, but it's inaccurate to label him as a strict ILB. He plays outside, inside, anywhere, and possesses the ability to rush from the edges like an OLB. I just don't see Bill narrowing it to a "he's an ILB so tagging him isn't a good value" -- he wouldn't view it in that light. The question is whether we can find someone to replace his production enough as we contemplate giving Hightower a $12-14M/year deal. Bill's going to evaluate effectiveness, projected effectiveness over the course of a potential deal, and leadership. Look at what he gave Wilfork, McCourty, etc. He gave McCourty top dollar, even though he's a safety, a position viewed as being less important than some other defensive positions. Those guys also gave him flexibility, which he loves, just like Hightower. And don't make anything out of Hightower not getting the tag on the first day -- no player got tagged, and that's neither a surprise nor a sign of anything to come. |
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Feb 16, 2017 10:11:03 GMT -5
Nothing will ever shock me with the Pats, but I'd be very surprised if Hightower isn't back for at least one more year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 16, 2017 10:43:35 GMT -5
Even if you want to say 14m is a slight annual over pay for Hightower the fact it's a one year deal should negate that.
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 16, 2017 11:10:21 GMT -5
I hope and think the Pats sign him but he does have an injury history, missing 11 games over the past 3 seasons. That along with their recent experience with Mayo not being able to stay healthy after the deal they gave him must give BB pause.
The franchise tag might make the most sense if the Pats can't get him to take 13 or less over a longer term deal. It would be a tough loss to replace is an under statement but they have a history of doing just that.
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 16, 2017 14:38:29 GMT -5
Another position the Pats have to make some tough decisions at is WR. Amendola has a cap hit of about 6.5 million which is all gone if cut. Yes they could renegotiate but at this point how much is he worth?
With Edelman, Hogan and Mitchell being your primary receivers how much do you pay DA? I don't want to pay him much and would rather actually sign Floyd to a 1 yr show me deal. Floyd is younger and has a much greater ceiling for what he could contribute.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 16, 2017 15:55:48 GMT -5
Another position the Pats have to make some tough decisions at is WR. Amendola has a cap hit of about 6.5 million which is all gone if cut. Yes they could renegotiate but at this point how much is he worth? With Edelman, Hogan and Mitchell being your primary receivers how much do you pay DA? I don't want to pay him much and would rather actually sign Floyd to a 1 yr show me deal. Floyd is younger and has a much greater ceiling for what he could contribute. Zero chance Amendola returns with that cap hit. Maybe they'll float a 1 year at ~$3M deal, and he can decide if he's fine sticking around for that in the role he's in, or go grab a more guaranteed money elsewhere. I'd like to see him back -- he's extremely reliable even in a relatively small role, and he's good insurance to have around in case Edelman or another WR goes down. It's notable that Amendola seems to love it here, he's best friends with Edelman, and there's been speculation that he's more likely to retire than go to another team if the Pats don't retain him. Floyd coming back on a cheap one year deal would be nice as well. Depending on the TE situation, there may be room for both of them. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 16, 2017 16:17:50 GMT -5
Danny should be back for 2-4m... and he's worth it on a one year deal... he's very valuable to this team and now he knows how to stay on the field
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 17, 2017 8:11:26 GMT -5
I really don't know what I want the Patriots to do with Garrapolo and truthfully, unless the return is ridiculously good like multiple high first rd picks then I'll be uneasy about it just because it's the QB position. That being said I would love to have 2 first round picks in this draft; so many exciting intriguing players at different positions. Guys at certain positions like TE and RB always end up going lower than mocks indicated. There have been very few TE taken in the first rd recently and those that were have not been good players. As for running backs Elliott might change teams perspective and make running back a high first rd target again. However this draft is supposed to be deep for both spots so you never know.
Would it be wise for the Patriots to take a Christian McCaffrey in the first round or a Dalvin Cook if he fell to the end of the round? Would it make sense to take one of the tight ends at 32 (Howard or Njoku) if they were there? I lean towards yes on the tight ends and Cook and no on McCaffrey. I think McCaffrey is a great fit for this team but I think he's a bit over hyped and more of a James White type than anything else. Cook I think will be gone but if for some reason he fell I'd jump on him. He's like JJ Watt for me in the sense that when I watch him play he just looks better than everyone else. The year Watt came out, I thought he was the best defensive player I saw and didn't understand how there was a chance the Patriots could get him early 20s... turns out they couldn't, but still that was the talk. Just so smooth and explosive... that's what Cook looks like and he's a 3 down back. Hell if Pats end up with 12th pick and took him, I'd be excited even though they should use that on defense...
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 17, 2017 15:30:48 GMT -5
I completely agree on McCaffrey and Cook. Cook sure looks like a stud and I wouldn't have a problem in late first round. McCaffrey sure doesn't look like a stud to me, good player, just not elite.
The TE class looks deep, I forget his name but the guy from Clemson would really help Pat's. A true receiving TE. If Bennett leaves we have to get another TE.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 17, 2017 16:41:02 GMT -5
I really don't know what I want the Patriots to do with Garrapolo and truthfully, unless the return is ridiculously good like multiple high first rd picks then I'll be uneasy about it just because it's the QB position. That being said I would love to have 2 first round picks in this draft; so many exciting intriguing players at different positions. Guys at certain positions like TE and RB always end up going lower than mocks indicated. There have been very few TE taken in the first rd recently and those that were have not been good players. As for running backs Elliott might change teams perspective and make running back a high first rd target again. However this draft is supposed to be deep for both spots so you never know. Would it be wise for the Patriots to take a Christian McCaffrey in the first round or a Dalvin Cook if he fell to the end of the round? Would it make sense to take one of the tight ends at 32 (Howard or Njoku) if they were there? I lean towards yes on the tight ends and Cook and no on McCaffrey. I think McCaffrey is a great fit for this team but I think he's a bit over hyped and more of a James White type than anything else. Cook I think will be gone but if for some reason he fell I'd jump on him. He's like JJ Watt for me in the sense that when I watch him play he just looks better than everyone else. The year Watt came out, I thought he was the best defensive player I saw and didn't understand how there was a chance the Patriots could get him early 20s... turns out they couldn't, but still that was the talk. Just so smooth and explosive... that's what Cook looks like and he's a 3 down back. Hell if Pats end up with 12th pick and took him, I'd be excited even though they should use that on defense... You want them to keep Garrapolo just so that we have a competent backup for next season? In my mind the answer is very clear, we need to trade him before next season to get something back better than a single 3rd round compensatory pick. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 17, 2017 17:15:55 GMT -5
Funny that one of the biggest questions about trading JG or not isn't even being discussed. I brought it up once but nobody is talking about it, Jacoby Brissett. Doesn't the thought of trading your backup QB include how you will replace him?
Why wouldn't you trade a guy that you hope never plays if you can get real value for him in a trade for at least 1 player who should be a solid contributor? If of course that guy you hope never plays can be replaced by somebody like your current 3rd stringer. I think the Pats like Brissett.
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