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Kyrie Irving to Boston for Thomas, Crowder, Nets 1st, Zizic
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2017 20:52:03 GMT -5
Wow. I'm legit speechless. I don't know if I love or hate this deal. I'm legit surprised by this and I don't know how to react. Throw a party Don. The Celtics are going to the Finals and have a legit chance to win it now.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 22, 2017 21:03:39 GMT -5
Throw a party Don. The Celtics are going to the Finals and have a legit chance to win it now. Yeah I'm pending towards that lol. Kyrie is a better player than IT especially when you consider the upside, but we weren't in his preferred destinations and that counts a lot in today's NBA. If he doesn't resign we're boned. On the other hand, I'm much more comfortable giving him the max than IT. I love how Danny was able to keep Brown and TatuMVP, I don't like how this makes us one big shorter in the rotation and that was a very thin big rotation to begin with. I hope the Nets are better this year because I don't want to live with giving up a shot at Doncic or Porter. I'm feeling like I'm playing a videogame, a turn based RPG. When you are low on health and you don't heal yourself but rather attack the opponent who's also low on health and should die from your hit, but stuff could wrong and he could make it and then you'd die and have to reset everything but that would suck because you have been playing for half an hour without saving. I'm excited and there's an undeniable adrenaline rush and this should be awesome, but I can't shake the feeling that it could go sideways just as easily.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2017 21:19:44 GMT -5
Throw a party Don. The Celtics are going to the Finals and have a legit chance to win it now. Yeah I'm pending towards that lol. Kyrie is a better player than IT especially when you consider the upside, but we weren't in his preferred destinations and that counts a lot in today's NBA. If he doesn't resign we're boned. On the other hand, I'm much more comfortable giving him the max than IT. I love how Danny was able to keep Brown and TatuMVP, I don't like how this makes us one big shorter in the rotation and that was a very thin big rotation to begin with. I hope the Nets are better this year because I don't want to live with giving up a shot at Doncic or Porter. I'm feeling like I'm playing a videogame, a turn based RPG. When you are low on health and you don't heal yourself but rather attack the opponent who's also low on health and should die from your hit, but stuff could wrong and he could make it and then you'd die and have to reset everything but that would suck because you have been playing for half an hour without saving. I'm excited and there's an undeniable adrenaline rush and this should be awesome, but I can't shake the feeling that it could go sideways just as easily. The way the Celtics are rolling right now, they will get one of those guys when the Lakers blow and give the Celtics the number 2 pick. ;-) Everything has been coming up Green since the draft lottery night. Finally. It's been a long time coming now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 23, 2017 0:29:01 GMT -5
I think it's an excellent deal for both teams.
Irving is a star who's on the way up and Ainge feels he can sign him long-term. He's not looking at him as a guy for a 2 year deal, so he's getting a young improving superstar.
The draft pick is a huge loss, but what are the odds the guy drafted turns into somebody better than Irving, particularly at a point in time in which the Celts are right there in their window?
They get to keep Brown and Tatum and one of their other picks (Lakers pick).
As much as we'll miss IT, I doubt the Celts wanted to pay max money to Thomas, who probably had his career year last year, likely would have been gone after this season, and also has an injury that renders him a bit uncertain.
The Cavs did well, too.
For the Cavs they get Thomas short-term to help keep them highly competitive and they do get that Brooklyn pick to help them long-term although who knows what they'll look like once LeBron leaves?
While it's too bad they lose that Brooklyn pick, I think the Celtics made a fantastic deal for a guy who's going to probably be the face of the franchise and one of the best players in the NBA going forward for the next several years. Guys like that don't come around too often.
And we know the guy can hit huge shots - his shot gave Cleveland their first championship of any sort since 1964. That's clutch. He'll get some chances for the Celtics, I'm sure.
Gotta love it. The Patriots are the class of football, the Celts have a serious shot at title 18 and probably more, and the Red Sox are a threat to win the Series this year. That's pretty good stuff.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 23, 2017 5:37:34 GMT -5
I really don't like this trade with the Nets pick being included. Disappointed!! But only time will tell. After a nights sleep and reading other thoughts I will say I have warmed up to the deal. As someone said, in the NBA the team that gets the best player usually wins the trade. In regards to losing the Nets pick, we can also look at it in the context that there is plenty of youth with more to come.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2017 5:58:39 GMT -5
I really don't like this trade with the Nets pick being included. Disappointed!! But only time will tell. After a nights sleep and reading other thoughts I will say I have warmed up to the deal. As someone said, in the NBA the team that gets the best player usually wins the trade. In regards to losing the Nets pick, we can also look at it in the context that there is plenty of youth with more to come. Losing the Nets pick stinks a little but the Nets might actually get better this year too by default. Maybe they get a few lucky shots to win a basketball game a few times next year that they didn't get this past year. Even if they end up having the worst record in the NBA again, you're dealing with ping pong balls all over again with your fingers crossed and hoping for fate to land in your lap. I'd say there was a 5 to 10 percent chance the Celtics get the number one pick at this point in time If they had kept the pick. Maybe those chances increase over the course of the season or maybe they even those chances go *way* down. You take all of the unknowns, gambles, risks, out of your hands with the pick, the Isaah injury factor, Zicic, everything. You get the most proven aspect of this deal. I'd say the chances of you coming up even short on this deal is slim to none.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2017 6:17:15 GMT -5
Lol Kirie left a little less than 6 million on the table to get out of Cleveland (by waiving the trade kicker). I don't know what LeBron did to this guy, but it sounds like he was willing to do anything to leave that place.
A lot of people think Kirie has a really good chance of signing a extension/future deal with the Celtics, which may be why they were more willing to include the Brooklyn pick in the deal.
Reportedly, Kirie had Boston in one of his preferred destinations he wanted to go to.
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Post by texs31 on Aug 23, 2017 7:02:31 GMT -5
I'm currently not able to consolidate my thoughts into a conclusion bc they are all over the map so . . .
- Kyrie IS the better player. By a decent amount (define "decent" however you like). But how much will that manifest itself on the court? He's going to be asked to be more selfless (and next to a player of the caliber that IT never had in Boston - Hayward). Does he score more points? Get more assists? Higher RPM? Win Shares? WAR? I'd actually expect lower numbers than IT had last year but . .
- there is reason to believe that IT's numbers in most of those cases (save assists) would've decreased as well (with addition of Hayward, Tatum and improvements from other players).
- Boston did just extend their window of elite PG play by 1 year and gave themselves a MUCH easier decision on whether to extend the player . . .
- Unlike with IT, offering the money doesn't guarantee you the player so we'll see how that plays out.
- Did concerns over IT's hip cost the BRK pick?
- Kyrie's durability questions are sometimes overlooked too (still trust his body more than IT's, mind you)
- Again, IT's numbers would likely have been worse here given the additions. Additions of Hayward, Tatum and Morris plus improvement of Brown likely would've cut into Crowder's PT and, therefore, contributions. Brooklyn got better. Other teams (IND, CHI, etc) look like they are moving to tank mode. So the assets Boston gave up likely have less value then they did before the offseason started but . . .
- (and I think this is STILL the one that overrides the others for me) I believe the next Celtics championship team will have an above average to great "Big" (of course, not necessarily in the traditional mode as we're seeing those guys look different now). Your ability to acquire that guy (via the draft or trade) just decreased SIGNIFICANTLY.
I THINK where I'm at is that I'm going to love Kyrie on this team but I'm always going to hate the value that was given up. Normally, I'm a "value is value" kinda guy when it comes to analyzing trades (so, what happens in the future is not relevant to THIS discussion - instead, being a separate topic). However, this is definitely going to be a case where I'll forget about the value lost if:
- Brooklyn ends up being in the mid-to-late lottery (outside the reach of the projected elite top of the draft). - LAL ends up in that 2-5 range and we get that big of the future - Kyrie gives us what IT likely would have and is an "easier" extension.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Aug 23, 2017 7:41:14 GMT -5
I would have rather used the Brooklyn '18 pick Bradley/Jae/et al. for Butler and George and kept Isaiah. I think that team has a higher ceiling the next 2 years than the current version at the same cost. Problem is, the timing on the deals didn't work given Draft day vs Free Agency start, and it banks on Isaiah being healthy and re-signing.
I think this shows Ainge thinks Kyrie >> Butler, since they likely could have gotten Butler at the deadline had they included it, and gotten an extra half season of a higher ceiling (though again so many moving pieces, who knows if Bulls would take '18 Bkn instead of '17).
2-5 years this is a better move, but there is definitely risk the team peaks this year in a year the championship is likely out of reach.
Also kinda hate rooting for a team that completely flushed a Conference Finalist. It just sucks as a fan. Isaiah was an awesome Celtic, and I like rooting for guys like him. AB, Jae too.
Finally, this proves that Brad is really the face of the franchise (or maybe even Danny). Kind of shocking to see the coach have the most power on an NBA team; only Pop has had that much juice, and he probably got lucky with 3 understated SUPERSTARS.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 23, 2017 11:42:45 GMT -5
Finally, this proves that Brad is really the face of the franchise (or maybe even Danny). Kind of shocking to see the coach have the most power on an NBA team; only Pop has had that much juice, and he probably got lucky with 3 understated SUPERSTARS. He absolutely is, it's a bit of a Belichick situation but without Brady. Which is not bad at all, coaching is an underrated aspect of the game and Brad is quite handily the best coach today outside of Pop. It will be fun to see how he meshes Kyrie and Hayward into his system, especially Kyrie who's a very ISO heavy player. I hope the ball movement doesn't stop. I got to say, I'm puzzled by the reactions by the media saying Cleveland is still easily the favorite to make it out of the East. I don't see it. If Kyrie doesn't go full legendary in that game 4, there was a good chance we'd be back in Boston in a 2-2 series. Without IT. If Big Al still has enough left in the tank, there is a very good chance the Celtics can beat the Cavs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 23, 2017 12:57:23 GMT -5
Surprised not by trade, not Thomas or Crowder, but by the secondary pieces being Zizic and the Nets pick. It feels like a lot to give up. I mean Cleveland didn't have many options and Thomas was clearly the best option. It feels like an overpay in a market where superstars are getting traded for 50 cents on the dollar. Who knows if the rumors were true, but Cleveland wanted Bledsoe and Jackson for Irving. It feels we gave up a lot more than that.
I don't hate the trade, but it's very risky. Kyrie needs to take a step forward and reach his potential. Become our #1 scoring option and play some D. Also where that Nets pick falls will really determine a lot about this trade. By all accounts the chances it's number 1 is lower than last year, but ESPN still gives them just under a 10% chance. At the same time if everything goes right I can see the Nets pick being in the 7-10 range. If the pick isn't top 5, this trade looks a lot better.
At the same time this trade makes Cleveland better, assuming Thomas is 100% this year. Thomas will get a lot more open looks playing with James and Love than he got on Celtics last year. Crowder allows them to play small ball with a 3 and D guy. I can live with that for the long-term upgrade in Irving. The Celtics have greatly improved over last year. The Nets pick could change everything. If they get a top 3 pick and an elite prospect next year. James won't be going anywhere. We might have just have given Cleveland the depth and young players they needed to retool and keep LeBron. Nevermind we gave them ammo to make a big trade. I fear a Thompson, Zizic and Nets pick for Cousins type deal at deadline if the Pelicans suck. They now have assets and that scares me.
So I'm really torn on this trade. Was thinking it would have been more like a few late first rounders or at worst the Lakers pick. Also surprised they had to include Zizic, though that's not a huge issue. I love Irving. He fits our time table perfectly and we don't have to worry about paying Thomas max money. Getting rid of Crowder opens up minutes for Tatum who needs big minutes. It's just tricky because I feel we overpayed and helped the one team that can beat us in East. I felt Cleveland had to make a trade, not just because of Irving wanting one either. The Warriors beat them so bad they couldn't just roll with the same team. Yet the Cavs got one of the biggest hauls for a star level player in recent memory. Way more than Butler, George, Cousins and even Love.
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Post by texs31 on Aug 23, 2017 14:55:37 GMT -5
If it wasn't clear, I now HATE that Bagley reclassified
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2017 15:11:53 GMT -5
I moved this into its own thread. I don't think we need to keep everything in enormous megathreads in this part of the Forum - it makes it miserable to read back through things later. It's tough to do, say, gameday threads because this part of the board gets less traffic, but that doesn't mean we need to swing entirely in the other direction as well.
We can feel our way through, but just keep in mind that for big news like this, it can get its own thread, for sure.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 23, 2017 16:01:41 GMT -5
If it wasn't clear, I now HATE that Bagley reclassified This is pretty much where I'm at. I know a lot can change between now and the draft, but this class is absolutely loaded at the top, and with guys that would theoretically fill long term needs for the Celtics. If this trade was made with a weak or average draft class I'd love it. I'd also support this trade if it was the LAL/SAC/PHI pick instead of the BK pick, but as is this trade feels like a clear overpay in terms of value. It might be worth it, and with a little luck it could be a big win, but it certainly has a good amount of downside risk. This is such a fascinating/video game type trade, but it was a no brainer for Cleveland given their alternatives.
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 23, 2017 16:30:20 GMT -5
Maybe this is blatantly obvious to some people, in which case I apologize...but trading what could be the #1 pick is not the same thing as trading the #1 pick. There's a much better chance, according to pretty much any statistical projection, that the Nets pick falls 5-10 than 1-4 overall next year.
If Ainge knew that the Nets pick was going to be 1 or 2 overall, and he also knew that Bagley or Porter or whomever he drafted was surely going to become an All-Star, he wouldn't have made the deal. That is certainly a possible outcome, but not the most likely one. The average outcome would be a later lottery pick with a lower projected value.
If the Nets pick does end up being top 3 overall, it doesn't necessarily make it a "bad trade," just a trade that had an unlucky or bad outcome. None of us including Ainge know for sure what that pick will end up as...all we can do is make the best average projection we can of its value.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 23, 2017 18:05:09 GMT -5
So the Rumors are the Cavs wanted Tatum bad and we gave up the Nets pick instead. Which makes sense.
While I agree we have no clue where the Nets pick will be. Most places are projecting them in the 4-5 range. So statistically they have just as good of a chance of being top 3 as being 6-8. Right now the draft looks 5 deep in really impactful players. That could change, but guys like Ayton are going #4 on mocks currently. A guy that's compared to David Robinson. It looks like a very deep draft, like last year. It might be better!
So I don't buy the we would just be unlucky. Ainge knows he just traded a very valuable pick. I do believe he is betting on the Nets improving. Time will tell if that was a smart move. The Nets are a very hard team to project. Lots of new guys and older Vets. I can see them being better than expected if everything goes right or I can see them being really bad if things go wrong. Thing is it's a toss up.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 23, 2017 22:44:18 GMT -5
Crowder allows them to play small ball with a 3 and D guy. I've been reading a lot about how Crowder is a great get by Cleveland, but I think he's a really poor fit on that team. He can't play the 2 because he can't guard quicker smaller dudes. He can't play the 3 because Lebron is there. He can't play the 4 because that would put Love at the 5 and LMAO. I'm sure he will have a role and he's a very good player, I just don't like the fit on the Cavs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 23, 2017 23:33:56 GMT -5
It's all about small ball and matching up with Golden State. Crowder allows them to do that. I bet they play a lot of Love at center with James and Crowder. He's perfect for that. A good defender that can shot the 3 ball. A true team player that plays without the ball. He really increases Cleveland's depth. Most likely not a starter, but he will play a lot. I bet he finishes a ton of games.
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 24, 2017 7:29:23 GMT -5
Most places are projecting them in the 4-5 range. So statistically they have just as good of a chance of being top 3 as being 6-8. Right now the draft looks 5 deep in really impactful players. That could change, but guys like Ayton are going #4 on mocks currently. A guy that's compared to David Robinson. It looks like a very deep draft, like last year. The distribution is not a true bell curve. If the Nets finish 5th to last, it is more likely that they end up 7th in the lottery than 3rd.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 24, 2017 9:22:54 GMT -5
It's all about small ball and matching up with Golden State. Crowder allows them to do that. I bet they play a lot of Love at center with James and Crowder. He's perfect for that. A good defender that can shot the 3 ball. A true team player that plays without the ball. He really increases Cleveland's depth. Most likely not a starter, but he will play a lot. I bet he finishes a ton of games. We'll have to agree to disagree because Love at center would be quite literally the worst defensive team ever. I know that Love played a good defensive series in the last Finals, but you can't rely on that continuing going forwards. Love as the rim protector and IT as the PG would be suicide, you're just asking for teams to score at will against you.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 24, 2017 10:40:22 GMT -5
Most places are projecting them in the 4-5 range. So statistically they have just as good of a chance of being top 3 as being 6-8. Right now the draft looks 5 deep in really impactful players. That could change, but guys like Ayton are going #4 on mocks currently. A guy that's compared to David Robinson. It looks like a very deep draft, like last year. The distribution is not a true bell curve. If the Nets finish 5th to last, it is more likely that they end up 7th in the lottery than 3rd. That's just not true. The Nets could be the worst team in league yet again next year. Tanking teams like the Hawks, Pacers and Bulls have a lot more good young players. If a few of them make big gains it could really change those teams. The Nets have Russell and no other high end young guys. How good that team will be depends on Vets bouncing back from down years. Until we find out what those guys have left in tank, the Nets projections are just a wild guess. The Nets traded there best player for Russell. So it's not like they just added him to last years team. The only team that might for sure have a worse roster is the Bulls if they dump Wade. They haven't done that yet. I can see teams like the Hawks and Pacers being better than expected. We really know nothing right now, besides the Nets are likely a bottom 5 team based on talent.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 24, 2017 10:53:27 GMT -5
It's all about small ball and matching up with Golden State. Crowder allows them to do that. I bet they play a lot of Love at center with James and Crowder. He's perfect for that. A good defender that can shot the 3 ball. A true team player that plays without the ball. He really increases Cleveland's depth. Most likely not a starter, but he will play a lot. I bet he finishes a ton of games. We'll have to agree to disagree because Love at center would be quite literally the worst defensive team ever. I know that Love played a good defensive series in the last Finals, but you can't rely on that continuing going forwards. Love as the rim protector and IT as the PG would be suicide, you're just asking for teams to score at will against you. Well they played there best basketball against Warriors with Love at center. The new NBA is currently about just out scoring the other team. Take out Thompson and add Crowder, bam the Cavs can score a bunch more points. They can also defend other teams wing players better. Thompson is a good rim protector but he was useless in the finals. It's all about matching up against the other team. The Cavs couldn't do that last season, now they can. That's why Crowder is huge. Don't forget we played a ton of KO at center and Crowder at PF over the last 3 years. That lineup on average out scored the other team. Offensively Love is better than KO and he's a great rebounder. Those lineups have 5 shooters that will space floor for James and Thomas to drive to basket.
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Post by m1keyboots on Aug 24, 2017 11:19:24 GMT -5
Looking at it from a non fan of either team it hinges on Irvings' performance.
Irving is a little better offensively and still plays tough defense. He doesn't do the wide array of things that IT can pull off but he's really good at what he does. Having to stand by and watch Lebron ball stifles his game. Kyries' handle/hip passes are crazy and at times and he can get hot from anywhere.
So now there's a new LBJ super team.
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 24, 2017 11:40:31 GMT -5
"Most places are projecting them in the 4-5 range. So statistically they have just as good of a chance of being top 3 as being 6-8."
Under the current rules, the 5th worst team has a 29.2% chance of picking 1-4, and a 44.7% chance of picking 6-8.
The 4th worst team would have a 37.8% chance of picking 1-3, and a 52.3% chance of picking 5-7.
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Post by a2sox on Aug 24, 2017 11:40:43 GMT -5
Most places are projecting them in the 4-5 range. So statistically they have just as good of a chance of being top 3 as being 6-8. Right now the draft looks 5 deep in really impactful players. That could change, but guys like Ayton are going #4 on mocks currently. A guy that's compared to David Robinson. It looks like a very deep draft, like last year. The distribution is not a true bell curve. If the Nets finish 5th to last, it is more likely that they end up 7th in the lottery than 3rd. umassgrad, I'm confused by your statement. From the lottery odds table, a #5 (or #4) team doesn't have the same cumulative odds of landing a top 3 pick as it does a 6-8 pick. It's possible I don't quite understand the intricacies of this draft process... Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357 – – – – 2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123 – – – 3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040 – – 4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012 – 5 88 .088 .097 .107 – .261 .360 .084 .004 6 63 .063 .071 .081 – – .439 .305 .040
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