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5/3-5/6 Red Sox @ Rangers Series Thread
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,485
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Post by radiohix on May 6, 2018 17:36:49 GMT -5
Sale imitating his role model Jalen Christopher Beeks is fun to watch IMHO.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 6, 2018 20:35:53 GMT -5
Matt Barnes really has been unhittable this year. I hope he can throw more strikes in the future. Apparently FG has him throwing a splitter this year, which may just be a reclassification of his hard CH (which has some late downward bite). Or maybe he’s adjusted his grip. Idk, he doesn’t throw it that often. But there’s a pretty regular, steady progression along his development path to this point. I posted about it pre-season (along with Hembree), but there’s a reasonable amount of data to suggest that this is evolution and not just SSS luck. Yeah hitters are hitting under .100 against him. I mean there's luck involved with that, but when he's throwing strikes, he's been untouchable. His curveball is elite and I haven't looked at the data, but I know he's throwing it more. He throws that pitch for strikes more often than his fastball. I still think he can be a little homerun prone (hasn't happened much this year), but I like where he's progressing too. The only advice I can keep giving to Kelly and Barnes is to keep throwing strikes. They clearly have the stuff, but the reason why they are unreliable for some stretches of the year is because they literally can't throw strikes consistently in those stretches.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 6, 2018 22:18:44 GMT -5
Apparently FG has him throwing a splitter this year, which may just be a reclassification of his hard CH (which has some late downward bite). Or maybe he’s adjusted his grip. Idk, he doesn’t throw it that often. But there’s a pretty regular, steady progression along his development path to this point. I posted about it pre-season (along with Hembree), but there’s a reasonable amount of data to suggest that this is evolution and not just SSS luck. Yeah hitters are hitting under .100 against him. I mean there's luck involved with that, but when he's throwing strikes, he's been untouchable. His curveball is elite and I haven't looked at the data, but I know he's throwing it more. He throws that pitch for strikes more often than his fastball. I still think he can be a little homerun prone (hasn't happened much this year), but I like where he's progressing too. The only advice I can keep giving to Kelly and Barnes is to keep throwing strikes. They clearly have the stuff, but the reason why they are unreliable for some stretches of the year is because they literally can't throw strikes consistently in those stretches. Since September 2015, he is demonstrably not home run prone.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 6, 2018 23:30:43 GMT -5
Yeah hitters are hitting under .100 against him. I mean there's luck involved with that, but when he's throwing strikes, he's been untouchable. His curveball is elite and I haven't looked at the data, but I know he's throwing it more. He throws that pitch for strikes more often than his fastball. I still think he can be a little homerun prone (hasn't happened much this year), but I like where he's progressing too. The only advice I can keep giving to Kelly and Barnes is to keep throwing strikes. They clearly have the stuff, but the reason why they are unreliable for some stretches of the year is because they literally can't throw strikes consistently in those stretches. Since September 2015, he is demonstrably not home run prone. Compared to the league average or compared to his career norms? Edit- Just checked, looks like he's done a lot better of a job the 2 years or so like you mentioned. Hopefully he can keep that up instead of going back to 2015. All it takes is a few homeruns to mess that up. My gut feeling was a little outdated.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on May 7, 2018 2:55:46 GMT -5
Craig Bjornson: "OK Joe, we'll have to pitch you back to back nights in a bases loaded situation with 1 out and the first guy you'll face have hit for a 1000 ft worth of dingers in the game already. What do you say?" Joe Kelly: At the risk of being assailed for political correctness or whatever, I'm gonna point out that this kind of comment is apparently wicked offensive to some in the native american community. I only know this because just the other day I called a LA-Z-Boy recliner my spirit animal and my friend, who is indigenous, talked to me about being offended. I'm not a semantics cop, just pointing it out because I never gave it a second thought. I used to call everything retarded or gay and try not to do that anymore.
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Post by patford on May 7, 2018 6:43:15 GMT -5
Yeah hitters are hitting under .100 against him. I mean there's luck involved with that, but when he's throwing strikes, he's been untouchable. His curveball is elite and I haven't looked at the data, but I know he's throwing it more. He throws that pitch for strikes more often than his fastball. I still think he can be a little homerun prone (hasn't happened much this year), but I like where he's progressing too. The only advice I can keep giving to Kelly and Barnes is to keep throwing strikes. They clearly have the stuff, but the reason why they are unreliable for some stretches of the year is because they literally can't throw strikes consistently in those stretches. Since September 2015, he is demonstrably not home run prone. Barnes is very comparable to Kelly (or any other pitcher for that matter). When they don't throw strikes they end up getting killed. Even when he went into decline and started getting hit I still always felt comfortable watching Koji, because he didn't give anything away.
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Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2018 7:35:58 GMT -5
All Barnes and Kelly have to do is have one pitch other than their fastball that they can throw for a strike. Otherwise everyone is sitting fastball and not swinging at anything else.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 7, 2018 8:28:04 GMT -5
...One of the big things with the MFYs is that they have strong 1-9 lineup. The Astros and Indians bullpens (would have helped if Andrew Miller wasn't out) couldn't hold them down late in the games that the Astros and Indians should have won. Gardner is 34 and he's been struggling, and Neil Walker has been on the decline for years. Both of those guys, along with Sanchez are hovering around the Mendoza line. Stanton has started off slowly as well. Are they dangerous? Yes because of the HRs and that silly excuse for a baseball stadium. Their bench has been producing, and Gregorius has been other-worldly and that's carried them. But strong 1-9? There are a few holes in there.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 7, 2018 9:41:03 GMT -5
At the risk of being assailed for political correctness or whatever, I'm gonna point out that this kind of comment is apparently wicked offensive to some in the native american community. I only know this because just the other day I called a LA-Z-Boy recliner my spirit animal and my friend, who is indigenous, talked to me about being offended. I'm not a semantics cop, just pointing it out because I never gave it a second thought. I used to call everything retarded or gay and try not to do that anymore. Fair enough, we won't say it near your friend.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 7, 2018 9:57:36 GMT -5
At the risk of being assailed for political correctness or whatever, I'm gonna point out that this kind of comment is apparently wicked offensive to some in the native american community. I only know this because just the other day I called a LA-Z-Boy recliner my spirit animal and my friend, who is indigenous, talked to me about being offended. I'm not a semantics cop, just pointing it out because I never gave it a second thought. I used to call everything retarded or gay and try not to do that anymore. Fair enough, we won't say it near your friend. That's the spirit, you animal.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
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Post by ericmvan on May 7, 2018 23:02:38 GMT -5
I can't wait until the game fully evolves beyond the dogma of saving your best reliever for the final three outs (even if it's the 7-8-9 guys with a collective .600 OPS, like last night). It worked out because Kelly was awesome, but... So far this year, Joe Kelly has been the Red Sox' best reliever, by a narrow margin (stats in a moment). He was used Saturday like a relief ace, and if he can keep this up (mildly big "if"), he can pitch in the Andrew Miller role. Here are xWP- and WP- (expected and actual relief effectiveness, scaled to match ERA-), with rank among the top 210 relievers in parentheses. You'll note that early in the season, there are a lot of guys who have been very lucky clutch-wise; hence Matt Barnes, who has only been a fraction un-clutch, ranks 19th in expected and 57th in actual effectiveness. 33 (7) / -8 (5) Joe Kelly. Only guy in MLB who tops Kelly in both rankings is the Brewer's Jeremey Jeffress. 40 (13) / -4 (8) Craig Kimbrel 52 (19) / 55 (57) Matt Barnes 86 (84) / 60 (65) Carson Smith since 4/1991 (100) / 98 (116) Heath Hembree 98 (121) / 38 (39) Bobby Poyner 102 (135) / 68 (72) Hector Velazquez 105 (142) / 185 (204) Carson Smith overall 136 (192) / 184 (202) Brian Johnson Even if you throw out his rough start, Smith hasn't quite pitched like a 7th inning guy (like Hembree, too much hard contact). And the only scenario where you trade Brian Johnson is where everyone is healthy and both Smith and Thornburg are significantly better than Hembree. Right now, if you needed to make room for both Wright and Thornburg, you wouldn't hesitate to option Smith. Thornburg would (at least at first) be taking Hembree's role as the 4th set-up guy in the pen, bumping Hembree into Velaqzquez's mopup role, and the the slight upgrade from Hembree to Smith in that role would not be worth thinning the system of a useful body prematurely, not to mention jettisoning Johnson at the nadir of his value.
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