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7/26-7/29 Red Sox vs. Twins Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Jul 29, 2018 21:01:11 GMT -5
Just keep taking the series from teams and that will take care of the Yankees and the division. If the Sox keep up this pace, and win 112 games it will be next to impossible for the Yankees to catch them. One thing, though, is that the Yankees have a way easier schedule from here on out. If you leave out common opponents (and the games they play against each other) here are the games both teams have left: MFY: Baltimore 2 White Sox 2 Texas 4 Tampa Bay 1 Detroit 4 Oakland 3 Seattle 3 Minnesota 3 BOS: Philly 4 Cleveland 7 Atlanta 3 Houston 3 Mets 2 Let's say the Mets cancel out the White Sox, and the Braves and Phillies cancel out the Mariners and A's. Essentially, the Red Sox are playing 10 games against the Indians and Astros, while the Yankees are playing 13 against the Rangers, Tigers, Orioles, and Twins. That's the difference in the remaining schedule. That difference is probably worth, what, 3 or so games in the standings?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 29, 2018 21:08:32 GMT -5
Nice comfortable game to go to.
I had to laugh when I saw the lineup with JBJ batting 5th and Bogaerts and Moreland out of the lineup (as well as Raffy of course) - don't they know I'm coming to the park and I want to see those guys?
Then the infield alignment had to be a joke. They had a DH playing 1b, a 3b playing 2b, a 2b playing SS, and a catcher playing 3b.
I was praying nobody would hit the ball on the ground.
Yet somehow the infield defense today was equal to the task. The lineup hit the ball (although Sandy Leon looks pretty useless), but nobody other than JD Martinez could come up with a key hit. It felt like the Sox should be up 6 or 7 to nothing, but the lead held at 3-0.
The way Eovaldi was pitching it felt like plenty. He was amazing. He pounded the strike zone and was working these quick easy innings. And that catch JBJ made was breathtaking. I didn't stand up and cheer immediately because I was worried about him as he laid crumpled by the base of the CF wall at the 379 marker. Then Benintendi pulled him up and all was good. Maybe the catch of the year.
I honestly felt that if Eovaldi had stayed in he would have pitched a complete game shutout - he was pitching that well and that efficiently - he might have done it in less than 100 pitches.
I was disappointed when he got pulled and more disappointed when Barnes immediately walked the leadoff guy, but he got thru it and they pulled off a dazzling DP to end the game.
So now they're 41 games over .500 for the first time since 1946. That game was awesome and I definitely like having Eovaldi on the team. He'll help them.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 29, 2018 22:30:07 GMT -5
If the Sox keep up this pace, and win 112 games it will be next to impossible for the Yankees to catch them. One thing, though, is that the Yankees have a way easier schedule from here on out. If you leave out common opponents (and the games they play against each other) here are the games both teams have left: MFY: Baltimore 2 White Sox 2 Texas 4 Tampa Bay 1 Detroit 4 Oakland 3 Seattle 3 Minnesota 3 BOS: Philly 4 Cleveland 7 Atlanta 3 Houston 3 Mets 2 Let's say the Mets cancel out the White Sox, and the Braves and Phillies cancel out the Mariners and A's. Essentially, the Red Sox are playing 10 games against the Indians and Astros, while the Yankees are playing 13 against the Rangers, Tigers, Orioles, and Twins. That's the difference in the remaining schedule. That difference is probably worth, what, 3 or so games in the standings? You aren't accounting for the home/road adantage or the days off advantage. The Sox have 30 home and 25 road games remaining The Yankmees have 29 and 29. Of the 10 remaining head to head games, 7 are at Fenway. The Sox have 3 more off days and don't have to take another west coast trip.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 29, 2018 22:38:29 GMT -5
Eovaldi was scheduled to pitch the day we traded for him. He hadn't pitched since the 20th. Rest at 82 pitches shouldn't be a factor. Hence my being bummed. He had those 8/9-pitch innings so a Maddux was entirely feasible. My guess is they’re going on the historical 3rd-time penalty and wanted him out on a high note in a close game. That said, with all the time off and being post-TJ, I’m OK with easing him back in and *carefully* testing the hypothesis that his 3rd+-time penalty might be a thing of the past. I do think that Cora was being overly conservative...at least give him a shot at the 8th. I’m just happy the guy looks like he could be a coup of an addition. He’s better than Happ, for sure, and the cost was arguably less, at basically no salary cost either. Just a terrific ninja move by Dombrowski. OK, so I've only looked at this year's game logs (all of them), so this may not be the last word.
He also has a fairly large career opponent-quality proxy split (3 and 4 hitters versus 7 through 9), and there seems to be an interaction with the times around the order split. This year, a disproportionate amount of the 3rd-time damage was done by the best hitters (e.g., the B2B2B homers by Springer, Altuve, and Bregman).
The rule of thumb I came up with: if he gives up a hard-hit ball to a quality hitter the third time around the order, do not let him face another quality hitter. If he gets through the quality hitters without damage the third time, he can keep going.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 29, 2018 22:40:37 GMT -5
This is total BS: #Statcast Verified account @statcast 10m10 minutes ago More Is there any ball @jackiebradleyjr can't get to? The redsox CF got a standing ovation at Fenway for this brilliant 4-star play, in which he covered 78 feet to convert a 42% catch probability. I'm guessing that that factors in neither his initial position nor proximity to wall.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 29, 2018 22:48:10 GMT -5
This is total BS: #Statcast Verified account @statcast 10m10 minutes ago More Is there any ball @jackiebradleyjr can't get to? The redsox CF got a standing ovation at Fenway for this brilliant 4-star play, in which he covered 78 feet to convert a 42% catch probability. I'm guessing that that factors in neither his initial position nor proximity to wall. "covered 78 feet". What I don't know is or isn't a factor is hang time.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 29, 2018 22:59:19 GMT -5
One thing, though, is that the Yankees have a way easier schedule from here on out. If you leave out common opponents (and the games they play against each other) here are the games both teams have left: MFY: Baltimore 2 White Sox 2 Texas 4 Tampa Bay 1 Detroit 4 Oakland 3 Seattle 3 Minnesota 3 BOS: Philly 4 Cleveland 7 Atlanta 3 Houston 3 Mets 2 Let's say the Mets cancel out the White Sox, and the Braves and Phillies cancel out the Mariners and A's. Essentially, the Red Sox are playing 10 games against the Indians and Astros, while the Yankees are playing 13 against the Rangers, Tigers, Orioles, and Twins. That's the difference in the remaining schedule. That difference is probably worth, what, 3 or so games in the standings? You aren't accounting for the home/road adantage or the days off advantage. The Sox have 30 home and 25 road games remaining The Yankmees have 29 and 29. Of the 10 remaining head to head games, 7 are at Fenway. The Sox have 3 more off days and don't have to take another west coast trip. The Yankees will also play half these games without Judge and Sanchez too.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 29, 2018 23:18:59 GMT -5
When it comes to the Yankees making up all these games I have had a thought I haven't voiced but have been thinking but has turned out to be true. It is hard to win both ends of a double header. When in a race with a team winning at better than a 67% rate double headers hurt you as it seems most are a split.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 30, 2018 7:36:20 GMT -5
If the Sox keep up this pace, and win 112 games it will be next to impossible for the Yankees to catch them. One thing, though, is that the Yankees have a way easier schedule from here on out. If you leave out common opponents (and the games they play against each other) here are the games both teams have left: MFY: Baltimore 2 White Sox 2 Texas 4 Tampa Bay 1 Detroit 4 Oakland 3 Seattle 3 Minnesota 3 BOS: Philly 4 Cleveland 7 Atlanta 3 Houston 3 Mets 2 Let's say the Mets cancel out the White Sox, and the Braves and Phillies cancel out the Mariners and A's. Essentially, the Red Sox are playing 10 games against the Indians and Astros, while the Yankees are playing 13 against the Rangers, Tigers, Orioles, and Twins. That's the difference in the remaining schedule. That difference is probably worth, what, 3 or so games in the standings? Right, but if the Sox keep this pace against those teams the Yankees are not catching them.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 30, 2018 8:27:45 GMT -5
That west coast trip is always big. That finished off the Rays back in 2013 when they were chasing us.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 30, 2018 8:35:42 GMT -5
I'd worry more about this upcoming week when talking about the pennant race.
The Red Sox have to face Aaron Nola tonight. He's a tough customer. And tomorrow the Red Sox start Drew Pomeranz which is kind of a scary thing. These next two games are going to be tough. Meanwhile the Yankees face the stripped down Orioles team. I think the last time Baltimore faced the Yankees they still had Machado, Britton, and even Brach (although losing him might actually help the Orioles given the year he's having.)
If the lead is down to 3.5 and the Sox don't do better than a split you very much have a real pennant race on your hands. The next two games for each team is kind of big. If the Yankees don't gain on the Sox over the next two games and then they split the 4 game series then the Sox are in pretty good shape - another week of games of the schedule with no movement.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 30, 2018 9:08:55 GMT -5
I'd worry more about this upcoming week when talking about the pennant race. The Red Sox have to face Aaron Nola tonight. He's a tough customer. And tomorrow the Red Sox start Drew Pomeranz which is kind of a scary thing. These next two games are going to be tough. Meanwhile the Yankees face the stripped down Orioles team. I think the last time Baltimore faced the Yankees they still had Machado, Britton, and even Brach (although losing him might actually help the Orioles given the year he's having.) If the lead is down to 3.5 and the Sox don't do better than a split you very much have a real pennant race on your hands. The next two games for each team is kind of big. If the Yankees don't gain on the Sox over the next two games and then they split the 4 game series then the Sox are in pretty good shape - another week of games of the schedule with no movement. That we're throwing our 4 and 5 starters in this series is design (since we set up 1 through 4 for the Yankees), but that we're getting the Phillies' 1 and 2 is plain bad luck. I think it's been shown that the luck of which opposing starters you get over the course of a season does not even out, and it's something that no one ever measures.
The Yankees are throwing Tanaka versus Yefry Ramirez, who seems to be the O's best starter, and Gray versus Alex Cobb, who's actually been OK his last 3 starts.
I'll be satisfied if the lead shrinks by just one game.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 30, 2018 9:34:22 GMT -5
While the Sox are wearing jamies the Yankmees are playing Baltimore Wednesday. Cobb/Gray. I wouldn't want to place a Vegas bet on that one either way or the over/under.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 30, 2018 9:37:20 GMT -5
I hope next Sunday night's game lasts a good 5 hours too. The Yankees play the next day in Chicago. Red Sox are off.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 30, 2018 9:57:11 GMT -5
The other thing not talked about is that it seems like the Yankees have been playing down to their level of competition. They’ve lost a bunch of games to lousy teams but I believe have played the good teams better than the Sox thus far.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2018 11:01:49 GMT -5
One thing, though, is that the Yankees have a way easier schedule from here on out. If you leave out common opponents (and the games they play against each other) here are the games both teams have left: MFY: Baltimore 2 White Sox 2 Texas 4 Tampa Bay 1 Detroit 4 Oakland 3 Seattle 3 Minnesota 3 BOS: Philly 4 Cleveland 7 Atlanta 3 Houston 3 Mets 2 Let's say the Mets cancel out the White Sox, and the Braves and Phillies cancel out the Mariners and A's. Essentially, the Red Sox are playing 10 games against the Indians and Astros, while the Yankees are playing 13 against the Rangers, Tigers, Orioles, and Twins. That's the difference in the remaining schedule. That difference is probably worth, what, 3 or so games in the standings? You aren't accounting for the home/road adantage or the days off advantage. The Sox have 30 home and 25 road games remaining The Yankmees have 29 and 29. Of the 10 remaining head to head games, 7 are at Fenway. The Sox have 3 more off days and don't have to take another west coast trip. Yep, those are mitigating factors for sure! On balance, I'd rather have the Yankees' schedule going forward. But of course on balance I'd rather be 5.5 games up, regardless of the schedule difference.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 30, 2018 13:39:54 GMT -5
The other thing not talked about is that it seems like the Yankees have been playing down to their level of competition. They’ve lost a bunch of games to lousy teams but I believe have played the good teams better than the Sox thus far. We're 16-5 against the three unbelievably bad teams, the Royals, Orioles, and White Sox. The Yankees are 10-7. That's essentially the whole lead, when you factor out being 4-5 head-to-head.
We're 10-10 against Houston, Oakland, Atlanta, and Seattle and they're 12-4. They're also done with the Phillies, 2-1, while we have 4 games left with them.
How do we offset that 4 game edge?
How about the other subpar teams, Detroit, Texas, Miami, the Mets, and Toronto? We're 22-6, and they're 16-10.
So we're 38-11 against teams that are below average, and they're 26-17.
But our domination of lesser teams is understated by that. The two next weakest teams we've played are the Angels and Nats, against which we're 9-0.
(In between those clubs and the already mentioned top teams are the Rays and Indians. We're 9-4 and not yet played, respectively.)
As of right now, BTW, the Yankee schedule has been 1.2 games tougher.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 30, 2018 16:14:08 GMT -5
The Yankees lost the division last year for the same reason they are trailing by 5.5 games this year: they don't win enough road games. This year the Yankees are 0.5 games off the Red Sox home record and 5 games off their road record, so it's essentially the entire difference. Last year the Yankees lost the division by 2 games while finishing 5 games under the Red Sox road record. The 2018 Astros and Red Sox look like great home and road teams, the Yankees look like a great home team and merely a good road team.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2018 1:50:56 GMT -5
I woke up from a nap and immediately did two things: checked the Sox score and game log (down 4-1, WTF Porcello!) and popped my CPAP machine SD card into my computer to see how long the nap was and how my breathing was.
By the time I had determined that I'd had my longest nap in almost a month (reducing my sleep debt* to 17 h 40 min, the lowest total in the last 12 days) and had no apneas or hypopneas, and entered the data into my sleep spreadsheet, not only had the Sox tied the game, Porcello had pitched his shutdown inning! Win both ways.
I didn't see JDM's homer until hours later -- I was rewatching Ant-Man in preparation for seeing the sequel tomorrow.
*I appear one or more subunits of my circadian clock running way too slow in my brain (e.g., 7 or 8 days instead of 1), so on any given day I've got some mixture of wake signals and sleep signals running nonstop all day. So I go through stretches where I don't sleep enough followed by stretches where I make it up. A typical amount of debt is 3 1/2 hours, and my all-time worst until a month ago was 10 h 40 min. When it got to 13 h + I was talking about my brain doing a Bob Beamon on me ... and within a couple of weeks it had hit 20 h 50 min.
I don’t envy you the regular sleep deprivation. I had a sleep study once and thankfully, no CPAP for me. That ish would drive me nuts. Doing 80-100 hr weeks (I spent a month in Cardiac Critical Care as an intern doing q3 overnight call for example, and I couldn’t fall asleep even when I had time) made me a zombie. I felt perpetually dissociated. I know exactly what you mean by the Bob Beamon. “Fight Club” actually captured insomnia pretty well cinematically. As did “The Machinist.” Lol...it’s actually taught me to shut off the game and fall asleep. I can check scores in the morning if it goes extras. I’m prone to night-owling, but as Bartelby the scrivener says, I prefer not. In terms of staying awake and not feeling particularly exhausted, I deal with sleep deprivation better than anyone, because the deprivation is caused by an excess of the brain chemicals that keep you awake. But there's an aspect of my thinking that goes to hell amazingly. I was searching my memory for a good example, and tonight's game gave me one that's almost funny.
When Swihart's ball bounced over the fence, I though, "crap! Nunez has to stop at third! What a terrible break!"
Now, I did remember the stolen base as soon as I heard O'Brien and Lyons say the Red Sox had won. So the information was encoded into memory. But I didn't have normal, instant access to it, even though it had happened moment before.
This sort of memory lapse happens all day long when I'm in this state. I can be looking for my car keys and find something else that I think is a good idea to take with me, like a pen ... put that in my pocket, and then go downstairs and try to lock the door. (That one happened earlier in the evening.) I hadn't forgotten that I was looking for my car keys, but as soon as I moved it out of working memory to the stack, it stayed there instead of popping back off it.
(What's interesting is that this indicates low levels of norepinephrine, which is actually one of the wake-chemicals. But my serotonin levels are insanely high now.)
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