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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 15, 2018 12:30:42 GMT -5
The ESPN stat and PER only look at counting stats. The first one is just the total, the second one is how efficient you get counting stats. Neither one looks at D, so they are nothing like war. Which is my whole point! If your stats don't include D and his overall impact on the game they won't tell you his actual value.
Do you really think a player can't add value and make an impact without scoring? They lead the league in scoring since Smart was made a starter. One of the reason it works so well is he helps get other players going and doesn't have to take a ton of shots. The team scored 129 points yesterday.
What your doing is looking at Bradley, but only looking at offense. Acting like his D has no value, which is kinda crazy.
If you really think Smart isn't good defensively all the power too you.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 15, 2018 12:33:04 GMT -5
Do you get what that stat even is? It's just a counting stat that combines everything points rebounds assists steals etc. www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpmSmart ranks 34th in the whole NBA in Real Plus Minus. 11th among PGs and has the best defensive real plus minus of all point guards. Look at the list, the stars are at the top. Smart might not get you a ton of counting stats but he makes a big impact. Your stat only shows counting stats, mine shows the impact Smart has on the boxscore and his overall impact on the game. Smart drives me crazy, takes bad shots, creates a lot of turnovers because he has to make risky passes and has shown very little improvement on the offensive end. At the same time you can't dismiss his impact overall. This is by far the best Smart we have ever seen. The start of the last game they showed how Smart caused like 9 turnovers in the last game. Whole highlight reel type crap. The team takes off after he becomes a starter. Leading the league in points per game while he's starting over an 8 game win streak and we have injury after injury. You pick now to talk crap about Smart? Using simple counting stats? I'm sorry but that screams troll. I'm sorry if your not, but this board is heavy into advanced stats. There are a bunch of them for the NBA, which are like war for baseball. So when you start talking about points and restricted free agent offers we all think your trolling us. It's like judging a pitcher by ERA only. Nevermind the Celtics have like 8 starting level players. Plus and minus for smart is a skewed stat because for the bulk of the season he plays against second line players. And the stat i provided incorporates everything a player contributes to game prob one of the best stat to represent the overall impact of a player on a game. Smart scored zero points on the floor last night in 27 minutes. Last time i checked a game is decided on pts scored unless they recently changed that. Smarts game last night further proves he is nothing more then a role player. Does not make him a bad player he is what he is a role player this whole back and forth was started because people are claiming him as the most important player on the team you would never hear someone claim that about jbj. He is widely overrated by celtics fans and celtics fans only. Smart has never even made the all defensive team so your push of his defensive prowess is not shared by anyone outside of boston. And comparing that stat to an era shows your argument is rubbish, era is based off of two numbers innings and runs scored. The espn stat like per incorporates the most impactful stats in the game of basketball and rates a player on his impact to the game it is the war of basketball. We can use per if you would like would not change anything on making smart seem any more valuable to the celts. Your going to have to show better stats then the useless plus minus stat. What do you define as a role player and if you’re not a role player what are you? Everyone has a role to play. Kyrie clearly is our superstar, Tatum is the young stud and everyone else is basically a role player at this point. Hopefully, Hayward continues to improve so he can take over at times (when the Hawks cut it to 7 he’s the guy that settled the Cs down and started hitting buckets again). But even the stars need to play within the team to make it work if you want to win. Smart and Morris going into the starting lineup has been huge for this team. It’s not simply about the starting lineup either. Having Hayward and Brown to come in off the bench let’s you abuse teams the entire game not just when your starters are in. I promise you that no one hear thinks Marcus Smart is the most valuable player on the team. I think everyone knows Kyrie is that guy. The guy the team needs playing at his best for the team to maximize its ability. I feel like he’s doing well. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 15, 2018 12:37:06 GMT -5
The ESPN stat and PER only look at counting stats. The first one is just the total, the second one is how efficient you get counting stats. Neither one looks at D, so they are nothing like war. Which is my whole point! If your stats don't include D and his overall impact on the game they won't tell you his actual value. Do you really think a player can't add value and make an impact without scoring? They lead the league in scoring since Smart was made a starter. One of the reason it works so well is he helps get other players going and doesn't have to take a ton of shots. The team scored 129 points yesterday. What your doing is looking at Bradley, but only looking at offense. Acting like his D has no value, which is kinda crazy. If you really think Smart isn't good defensively all the power too you. I’d like to expand or highlight the point about not taking many shots. He only took 2 last night in 27 minutes. His 3pt attempts per game are the lowest of his career. This change in his game has been a huge evolution. And it’s not like he’s a completely useless scorer. He can score down low and on drives and he some how has a knack for hitting important 3s. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 15, 2018 13:01:15 GMT -5
I think that is huge for Smart. He'll never be a good shooter, so taking less makes sense. He's also cut his turnovers down, even if he still has the bad TOs like that pass to Tatum last night. That's a big part of him making the impact he has. He doesn't need to score when he's playing Irving, Tatum, Morris, and Horford. Just get those guys going, keep the ball moving and play great D. He's like the glue player for the starters. Makes everyone better and a big part of that is him not jacking up a lot of shots.
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Post by unitspin on Dec 15, 2018 13:12:07 GMT -5
He is a good defensive player just not elite. Smart like I said a dozen times before is the 7th most impact player on the team. To see him as anything more is crazy. What do you guys rate him? You really believe if smart is your 3 or 4 or 5 best player on your team you can contend. How I would define a role player is a second unit player that can contribute if needed with the starting unit. Hes just under a 6th man. Theres your starters your 6th man, role players then bench guys. His lack of offensive talent hampers his defense impact. If he could score 15 a night he's a top 50 player in the league when he scores 7 a night he's top 100 if hes lucky. Another question if there was a redraft in smarts draft class do you take him 6th over the guys behind him?
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 15, 2018 14:54:45 GMT -5
If you did a redraft, then no he’s probably not the 6th pick but he’s a top 10 pick. He’d also probably go over 3 of the guys drafted above him in Wiggins, Parker and Exum. If you want to tell me Wiggins is better than him because he scores a very inefficient 17ppg and Minnesota gambled and lost on his over-bloated contract then that’s fine but I’ll disagree. Gordon would get drafted above him now but he’s still more sizzle than substance and he limits what you can do as a team.
Guys definitely ahead of him:
Embiid (3)
Cappella (26th)
Jokic (41)
Harris (19)
Randle (7)
Guys in his class:
Saric (12)
LaVine (13)
Gordon (4)
Wiggins (1)
Even if you put all those guys a head of him he was a good pick at 6 and you really can’t count Jokic and Cappella (maybe even Harris) as they were so far off the radar.
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Post by jmei on Dec 15, 2018 17:56:51 GMT -5
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 16, 2018 0:34:58 GMT -5
So tonight was the third game in 4 nights, right? I missed the game but it seems like the effort was there and they were in for 2 quarters. Hayward and Morris combining to go 0-10 from 3 is going to doom their chances at any game.
A lot has been said about how terrible Brown has been and rightfully so, but when does Rozier become a serious problem and a guy we might look to improve on?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2018 1:50:08 GMT -5
How many teams have better back-up pg than Rozier? Coming into this game he was shooting 39% and 37% from deep. His numbers are almost exactly the same as last year. He had his best stretch of the season after they redid the lineups.
I'm not really blaming anyone for this loss, chaulk it up to a scheduling loss. Didn't even check to see if it was on, because this almost never happens now a days.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 16, 2018 1:54:42 GMT -5
Scary Terry has been relatively invisable. Put Brown and Hayward (understandable) in the same pew.
Much has been made of titrating player rest and adequate playing time. The optimum formula has been elusive and may not exist. I'll bet Danny makes an appearance before February.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2018 2:19:57 GMT -5
He will for sure make a move or two. Has to replace Bird at some point and likely fill the open two way roster spot. Anything above and beyound that who knows way to early for that.
Scary Terry is your back-up PG giving you 8.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, .9 steals. He's not going to be putting up huge numbers in a back-up role. He's started two games averaged 16 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while shooting over 50%. Scored over 10 points in 6 out of 8 games during our win streak. If you expect a lot more out of a back-up PG playing 23 minutes a night I think your going to be disappointed. You can't get playoff Rozier if he doesn't get 35 minutes a game and not with all these scorers on this team.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 16, 2018 7:40:07 GMT -5
He will for sure make a move or two. Has to replace Bird at some point and likely fill the open two way roster spot. Anything above and beyound that who knows way to early for that. Scary Terry is your back-up PG giving you 8.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, .9 steals. He's not going to be putting up huge numbers in a back-up role. He's started two games averaged 16 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while shooting over 50%. Scored over 10 points in 6 out of 8 games during our win streak. If you expect a lot more out of a back-up PG playing 23 minutes a night I think your going to be disappointed. You can't get playoff Rozier if he doesn't get 35 minutes a game and not with all these scorers on this team. Right. And that is at least part of my point. He is not going to get 35 minutes. He has never shot even 40% from the field in any one season. If he is going to be more impactful, he needs to play more with others playing less. He reportedly is dissatisfied with his court time and can walk at year end. He is young, athletic and cheap. My guess is the Celtics give him a chance to spread his wings elsewhere. Everybody benefits. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 16, 2018 7:45:06 GMT -5
Rozier is fine, he is what he is. Low turnover guy who can score in bunches but also goes cold. It’s really the same whether he starts or not; when he starts the volume is just bigger because the minutes are. He’s either the backup or 3rd PG on the team depending on how you want to look at it. If you are going to tell me you’re losing games because of that guy, then you’re overlooking other things that are going wrong.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 16, 2018 7:51:17 GMT -5
The Celtics schedule has been fairly easy as far as opponent goes, but they’ve been short handed and they’ve played 14 straight games where they’ve had to get on a plane right after the game. That’s crazy and gets tiring. They finally settle down and get a 4 game home stand that takes them thru Christmas. It was bound to catch up to them at some point and it happened to be the last game of that stretch in Detroit against a scrappy team.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 16, 2018 7:59:03 GMT -5
He will for sure make a move or two. Has to replace Bird at some point and likely fill the open two way roster spot. Anything above and beyound that who knows way to early for that. Scary Terry is your back-up PG giving you 8.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, .9 steals. He's not going to be putting up huge numbers in a back-up role. He's started two games averaged 16 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while shooting over 50%. Scored over 10 points in 6 out of 8 games during our win streak. If you expect a lot more out of a back-up PG playing 23 minutes a night I think your going to be disappointed. You can't get playoff Rozier if he doesn't get 35 minutes a game and not with all these scorers on this team. Right. And that is at least part of my point. He is not going to get 35 minutes. He has never shot even 40% from the field in any one season. If he is going to be more impactful, he needs to play more with others playing less. He reportedly is dissatisfied with his court time and can walk at year end. He is young, athletic and cheap. My guess is the Celtics give him a chance to spread his wings elsewhere. Everybody benefits. Remember he’s only restricted so the Celtics do have some control. I do wonder what will happen with him. The options are: 1. Trade him during this season. 2. Let him walk this off season 3. Sign and trade (unlikely for cap reasons) 4. He’s back on the one year QO. (Keep in mind any player on a one year deal from being a RFA has a full no trade) 5. Resign him this offseason either by matching an offer sheet or giving him a contract. I’d say 2 and 4 are the most likely outcomes. Terry might not be happy with contract offers he’s getting as a RFA and could just play it out. He might waive the no trade to get playing time tho so it could work out. I doubt they trade him until Kyrie is officially signed long term, even though Kyrie is making it difficult for him to back out of doing that. The commercial about retiring number 11 sealed that deal for me. I think 5 is a possibility it a Smart situation comes up and the deal is too good for the Celtics to pass up. He’d be very tradable at anything 4/60 and under and if they make a move for AD then he or Smart may be necessary. |
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 16, 2018 9:03:22 GMT -5
How many teams have better back-up pg than Rozier? Coming into this game he was shooting 39% and 37% from deep. His numbers are almost exactly the same as last year. He had his best stretch of the season after they redid the lineups. I'm not really blaming anyone for this loss, chaulk it up to a scheduling loss. Didn't even check to see if it was on, because this almost never happens now a days. Oh I absolutely wasn't blaming him and I quite like Rozier as a player. But his season thus far has been such letdown to me after what he did last season even if his shooting and assists/turnovers numbers are only marginally down. He has a negative box plus/minus and honestly the biggest thing is that he was trending in a great direction last season and those trends just aren't there this year. It's always scary to me when a player stalls in development and maybe that's happening with Rozier. I think Brown's struggles kind of mask a bit that Rozier is also having a pedestrian year. A lot of elite teams have better backup PGs than Rozier. The Pacers, Thunder, Raptors, Nuggets... Rozier is probably going to command more money than he's worth it to us. |
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Post by wcp3 on Dec 16, 2018 13:31:11 GMT -5
The thing about Rozier is it’s highly unlikely everyone stays healthy throughout the entire season, so I suspect he’ll play a much heavier role when that time comes. He’s been a little underwhelming, but I don’t really see a need to move on from him (with the obvious caveat being if a team blows them away with an offer).
The option that rarely gets discussed is keeping him this year and letting him walk as a FA, which I think gives the Celtics the best chance to win now.
I’m as big of a Jaylen fan as there is, but count me amongst the group that thinks it’s officially time to be worried.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 16, 2018 21:02:50 GMT -5
I’m as big of a Jaylen fan as there is, but count me amongst the group that thinks it’s officially time to be worried. Agreed and it hurts. I absolutely love his upside and realistically I still think he's going to be a good complimentary piece. He has the tools and he had the production to go along with it in the past. But he looks so off, it's a weird body language thing that makes him look out of the game when he misses 2-3 shots. It makes me feel like there's certainly something we're not aware of, like maybe he's dealing with something or there's a chemistry issue. I don't like playing sports psychologist, but I really hope it's temporary whatever this version of Jaylen is. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2018 22:26:49 GMT -5
How many teams have better back-up pg than Rozier? Coming into this game he was shooting 39% and 37% from deep. His numbers are almost exactly the same as last year. He had his best stretch of the season after they redid the lineups. I'm not really blaming anyone for this loss, chaulk it up to a scheduling loss. Didn't even check to see if it was on, because this almost never happens now a days. Oh I absolutely wasn't blaming him and I quite like Rozier as a player. But his season thus far has been such letdown to me after what he did last season even if his shooting and assists/turnovers numbers are only marginally down. He has a negative box plus/minus and honestly the biggest thing is that he was trending in a great direction last season and those trends just aren't there this year. It's always scary to me when a player stalls in development and maybe that's happening with Rozier. I think Brown's struggles kind of mask a bit that Rozier is also having a pedestrian year. A lot of elite teams have better backup PGs than Rozier. The Pacers, Thunder, Raptors, Nuggets... Rozier is probably going to command more money than he's worth it to us. I have to say I think you were expecting too much. For example lost in this negative storm is he's grestly improved finishing at the rim. He's at 70% within 3 feet. He's improved his 3-10 feet numbers. It hasn't shown in his numbers because he's taking less of them and shooting more long twos like most of the team. I will admit that is something that is getting better overall. He wasn't ever going to be as impactful as in the playoffs. He doesn't get the minutes nor the opportunity. The top 4 from the playoffs are all down, every single one of them. There are a few reasons for that, but it shows this isn't all just on the players. More of a team issue. This isn't Rozier has stalled in his development. This is a whole new offense, tons of talent means less minutes, and Irving changes everything. I'm not even being negative about Irving, he just changes everything. You can't deny that. I actually think Rozier being basically the same guy is a very good thing. Like with Tatum, it's only slightly worse at most. Then a guy like Brown is in the toilet. Eight game winning streak, tons of guys out, and Rozier was plus 53 during those 8 games. He was positive is 6 of 8 games even playing big minutes with Semi, Williams, Wanamaker, and Yabu all guys that rank well below average offensively. Kinda funny we are having this talk now after one game after what seems like his best run of the year impact wise. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2018 22:30:54 GMT -5
Listen to the podcast that Jmei posted, talks about Brown and it will help explain some of his issues and how he's just different. I will warn it's rather long and gets boring but has some good information.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 17, 2018 12:29:11 GMT -5
I have to say I think you were expecting too much. For example lost in this negative storm is he's grestly improved finishing at the rim. He's at 70% within 3 feet. He's improved his 3-10 feet numbers. It hasn't shown in his numbers because he's taking less of them and shooting more long twos like most of the team. I will admit that is something that is getting better overall. He wasn't ever going to be as impactful as in the playoffs. He doesn't get the minutes nor the opportunity. The top 4 from the playoffs are all down, every single one of them. There are a few reasons for that, but it shows this isn't all just on the players. More of a team issue. This isn't Rozier has stalled in his development. This is a whole new offense, tons of talent means less minutes, and Irving changes everything. I'm not even being negative about Irving, he just changes everything. You can't deny that. I actually think Rozier being basically the same guy is a very good thing. Like with Tatum, it's only slightly worse at most. Then a guy like Brown is in the toilet. Eight game winning streak, tons of guys out, and Rozier was plus 53 during those 8 games. He was positive is 6 of 8 games even playing big minutes with Semi, Williams, Wanamaker, and Yabu all guys that rank well below average offensively. Kinda funny we are having this talk now after one game after what seems like his best run of the year impact wise. Yeah probably I was expecting too much, I guess it's a situation kind of like Jaylen Brown in that you see the upside and you get crazy about it lol. The team is so talented and well coached that any sports talk about it will eventually lead to some unfairness to some guys. They don't need to upgrade anywhere outside of the obvious superstar guy if they could get one (because you always want those), even the need for a better big has definitely been mitigated by the rise of Theis and the drafting of Williams. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2018 15:21:21 GMT -5
The Celtics could use another scoring option off the bench. That's why I like Burk. Won't play most games, yet with injuries the scoring seems light. Hood and the way he can shoot it has always intrigued me, yet I don't like the fit. He wants minutes he won't take to a limited role. Burk has had that most of his career.
If Horford's injury is a long-term thing I like Noah Vonleh. Finally starting to put it all together. Can shoot, rebound, play D, and most importantly pass.
If there was ever a year when a first round pick shouldn't be off limits it should be this year! Don't just give one away, yet if you need to fill a spot I'd put it on the table. Love to play third team and send off a first for Josh Okogie, who Minny doesn't seem to want to play. I would also see what was out there for young PG that were high picks that have fallen out of favor. Not really for this year, but looking for the future. Might be jumping the gun though, could that type of thing closer to the draft. Just in the past first rounder have been very hard to get at the deadline. You might have an opportunity to snag something good if you put one in play. Example last year I got no first for Evans. Yet looking at four first round picks,all non lottery it changes my thinking.
I'm all for going after a superstar, yet how? The Kings pick and the Grizzly's pick are both non lottery. Maybe those teams fall off a little bit, but the chances of a top 10 pick looks like wishful thinking unless some major injuries happen. Those two teams are looking for upgrades also, seen as two of the more aggressive teams on the trade market. As of right now the second worst team in the West would get the 9th pick in the draft. Who's going to tank in the West? A few teams should, yet the owners want to win.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 17, 2018 22:08:04 GMT -5
I'm all for going after a superstar, yet how? The Kings pick and the Grizzly's pick are both non lottery. Maybe those teams fall off a little bit, but the chances of a top 10 pick looks like wishful thinking unless some major injuries happen. Those two teams are looking for upgrades also, seen as two of the more aggressive teams on the trade market. As of right now the second worst team in the West would get the 9th pick in the draft. Who's going to tank in the West? A few teams should, yet the owners want to win. Not sure either, I guess it depends on who becomes available and if Williams or even Brown show enough to be desirable on a trade. You never rule out a trade for a superstar and maybe it's that I'm not a crazy Derozan fan, but was the Kawhi package really that much better than anything we could offer for a team looking to trade an elite player? But yeah you are absolutely right that there are so few teams out of the post-season race right now it's unlikely we see a star getting moved. Unless there's drama. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 18, 2018 7:08:23 GMT -5
That podcast says Danny not trading Brown was the reason we didn't get Leonard. I don't think that Kawhi package was that great. At the same time he had question marks, like health, only one year deal, all that crap about LA. I wasn't sure that was a great deal. Frankly still not sure it was the way too go. Looking crappy, Brown has been disappointing, those picks look horrible and Leonard looks awesome. Yet one year maybe and fit wasn't great. Leonard isn't LeBron. Now Davis is a different story. He fits perfectly, yet all our assets are crazy low. Rumors the Lakers are saving the young guys go chase Davis this summer if he declines the super max deal. Can you match Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart? Hopefully those picks improve and Brown plays better.
I still have a lot of faith in Brown. He was always going to take time, he's nothing like Tatum. In so many ways he's crazy raw, yet the things he can do given his skill level are crazy. 5 years from now he could be a monster and in my opinion at worst a very good third type guy on a title contender. Yet Irving wants to win now and seems to be done with young guys and the growing pains. It's a craxy mixed team. Half prime age or older Vets, half rather raw young players. Those young guys almost went to the finals. Brown doesn't really mix well with Irving at this point in his career. It's why I love him on the second unit. I've seen enough good things and improvement that I'm hopeful it all works out.
Back on topic who becomes available? Beal was out there, yet they just added to that team, so that seems unlikely. Maybe a guy like Walker, but he doesn't fit. Butler was already traded and he wasn't a great fit.
It really looks like only minor type moves and maybe the right rotation guy becomes available. I don't see that guy right now, but who knows.
You could look at moving Rozier, but that has a million road blocks. Really if you wanted to do that the offseason was the time to do it. I still think he's key for us. I'd certainly move him for the right offer, but what is that? How do you replace him? The chance you might get to keep him on a QO is increasing. I'm still a massive fan and want him long-term even if that seems unlikely. I'd have to see the offers, I just can't seem to find need and the right mix for us.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 18, 2018 7:48:07 GMT -5
Right now they have Rozier, Hayward and Brown off the bench. I’m not so sure another scorer is a need. Don’t you already think they have too many guys who need the ball? Now, if you were saying they could use a pure shooter off the bench for certain situations then I could get behind that. Those guys don’t really need the ball, you put them in sit them in the corner and they either open the floor or get wide open 3s. The one thing this team doesn’t have is a pure knock down shooter.
Incidentally enough, those draft picks, while clearly not an ideal situation will be in a range where Danny does pretty good. They’ll also be in the spots where those guys who are pure shooters but not great athletes (see Huerter) fall and where they can get a point guard (like Tre Jones?) to replace Rozier. Of course, I had high hopes of another top 5 pick but Danny finds good players and perhaps we are getting lucky and don’t even know it yet.
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