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2019 Patriots Offseason Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 18, 2019 9:27:52 GMT -5
SI posted the salary cap space for each team as of today. The Pats have the second lowest in the league at 5.5 million. The Falcons have the least. The Colts have the most at 77 million. Of course that could change if Gronkowski retires or a Brady restructuring. But keep in mind they still need room for all those draft choices. BB is the best, but he’ll still need to be creative. Yeah, they really do need to nail this draft. I don't worry about the AFC East, but I do think KC is not far off from being a real force in the AFC. Mahomes is great and I think he has better days ahead of him. Andy Reid will always be outcoached in big games. If Mahomes is some kind of genius like Manning or Brady, then he could overcome it, but that's asking a lot. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 18, 2019 9:48:20 GMT -5
Yeah, they really do need to nail this draft. I don't worry about the AFC East, but I do think KC is not far off from being a real force in the AFC. Mahomes is great and I think he has better days ahead of him. Andy Reid will always be outcoached in big games. If Mahomes is some kind of genius like Manning or Brady, then he could overcome it, but that's asking a lot. True, but sooner or later the law of averages catch up. The Patriots won that game because they won the coin toss. Had KC won it they probably would have marched down the field against the Patriots tired defense just as the Pats wound up doing to the tired KC defense. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 18, 2019 11:00:33 GMT -5
Terry McLaurin checks a lot of boxes that is for sure. Yet second round seems way high for him in this class. Seen as a late 3rd to even 5-6 round guy by some people. Even DTP who has him late third calls him raw, needs to work on route running and eliminating drops. Does think he'll be better in the pro's just needs more time to develop. You know Bill loves the two time team captain and great special teams though. McLaurin rankings in WR group 17, 18, and 22. It's a crazy deep group. The funny thing about Allen is he wasn't very good at those inside the 20 punts for a large chunk of the year. His numbers were way down and then bam he was clutch. Yeh i’m not sure where you’re getting he needs work on his route running... What matters to you when evaluating a player? I'm huge on pre-combine draft magazine. They watch all the game tape and give you scouting reports based off that. I follow that up with combine numbers, stats, pro-days and then things like workouts and senior bowls. I just care what players could do in actual games more than anything else. That tape per three out of my four magazines doesn't think he's a great route runner. Got rounds his routes, ran a limited route tree and needed to be more physical in getting open. At the same time nfl.com has a scout saying his routes look way better in practices like you just posted than they ever did watching the game tape. So take that information as you want, yet it's clearly there. My two cents he's working on what scouts had questions about trying to answer those questions. Yet can he do that during games? It's why what your using is what I put the least stock in. So many players year after year look better in these practices or combine showing and get over picked or vice versa. Did he just get better? Was he used incorrectly at Ohio State? Was it because of Ohio States overall talent level? He's a crazy hard one, because he played with an elite QB that put up elite numbers. Yet was 3-4 on the depth chart on a deep receiving core. He's a perfect example of why the draft isn't easy. I'd also say that route running is maybe the hardest things for scouts to agree on. The good scouts look at everything. The type of routes, how cleanly and precise he ran them, how he gets open, consistency, things like press coverage hurting you, etc. The bad or non scouts and you get a ton of information from guys like that right now watch limited tape and then give you scouting reports off like two games and a senior bowl workout. It's why I limit my information to sources I know and have used for years because you can literally find scouting reports from John Smith saying anything this time of year. He's a very good target that checks a lot of boxes. He has a good amount of upside number 2/3 WR depending on who you believe more. He just hasn't shown the route running your talking about during games. Which is why I have him in the 3rd to 5th rounds as a target. Which says a lot more about this draft classes depth than him frankly. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2019 11:06:57 GMT -5
SI posted the salary cap space for each team as of today. The Pats have the second lowest in the league at 5.5 million. The Falcons have the least. The Colts have the most at 77 million. Of course that could change if Gronkowski retires or a Brady restructuring. But keep in mind they still need room for all those draft choices. BB is the best, but he’ll still need to be creative. Dont forget the rule of 51 plus the draft slots means they don’t need much space at all to sign the draft picks. So the first round pick is 1.8m but knocks out a 500k player so it’s really 1.3m Their first 2nd is really like 300k while the next is about 250k The 1st third is about 150k the next two are around 100k maybe less Then the rest of the picks don’t count anything really. So they really only need around 2m five or take a couple hundred K to sign all their picks if they made them all. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 18, 2019 11:13:46 GMT -5
Andy Reid will always be outcoached in big games. If Mahomes is some kind of genius like Manning or Brady, then he could overcome it, but that's asking a lot. True, but sooner or later the law of averages catch up. The Patriots won that game because they won the coin toss. Had KC won it they probably would have marched down the field against the Patriots tired defense just as the Pats wound up doing to the tired KC defense. That Chiefs D that got shredded by our offense has now lost two elite edge rushers. Guys you can't easily replace. Who knows about OT. Maybe your right, yet I will say our D could make plays. They had shown the ability to shutdown drives against that team in the two games they played. Everytime we played aggressive against them we did well. Play prevent D and they killed us. Exact samething in the two games. I really don't think it was them getting tired, we just played differently with a lead late and I hate it. If you get beat playing aggressive so be it, I just can't stand playing prevent D and letting QBs easily drive the field with little preasure. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 18, 2019 11:25:26 GMT -5
SI posted the salary cap space for each team as of today. The Pats have the second lowest in the league at 5.5 million. The Falcons have the least. The Colts have the most at 77 million. Of course that could change if Gronkowski retires or a Brady restructuring. But keep in mind they still need room for all those draft choices. BB is the best, but he’ll still need to be creative. Dont forget the rule of 51 plus the draft slots means they don’t need much space at all to sign the draft picks. So the first round pick is 1.8m but knocks out a 500k player so it’s really 1.3m Their first 2nd is really like 300k while the next is about 250k The 1st third is about 150k the next two are around 100k maybe less Then the rest of the picks don’t count anything really. So they really only need around 2m five or take a couple hundred K to sign all their picks if they made them all. I've actually been impressed with our cap space. If you told me we could get a good starting quality DE, DT, and CB, with also adding some quality depth before free agency I would have been very happy. Nevermind the fact they made good offers to top WRs, which shows they had the ability to give out bigger contracts. They just won't be stupid. With those draft picks don't discount them trading back, which greatly reduces the cap numbers of those picks. It's a huge part of their salary cap structure that no one talks about or thinks is a weakness. Yet its how they year after year fill out the roster on the cheap. You can have a ton of middle tier guys, when you can year after year mine young players making the minimum amount allowed in football. Trading that first to middle of the second saves you what almost a million? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2019 11:40:14 GMT -5
Dont forget the rule of 51 plus the draft slots means they don’t need much space at all to sign the draft picks. So the first round pick is 1.8m but knocks out a 500k player so it’s really 1.3m Their first 2nd is really like 300k while the next is about 250k The 1st third is about 150k the next two are around 100k maybe less Then the rest of the picks don’t count anything really. So they really only need around 2m five or take a couple hundred K to sign all their picks if they made them all. I've actually been impressed with our cap space. If you told me we could get a good starting quality DE, DT, and CB, with also adding some quality depth before free agency I would have been very happy. Nevermind the fact they made good offers to top WRs, which shows they had the ability to give out bigger contracts. They just won't be stupid. With those draft picks don't discount them trading back, which greatly reduces the cap numbers of those picks. It's a huge part of their salary cap structure that no one talks about or thinks is a weakness. Yet its how they year after year fill out the roster on the cheap. You can have a ton of middle tier guys, when you can year after year mine young players making the minimum amount allowed in football. Trading that first to middle of the second saves you what almost a million? It’s about 750k in savings |
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Post by philarhody on Mar 18, 2019 14:02:10 GMT -5
Yeh i’m not sure where you’re getting he needs work on his route running... What matters to you when evaluating a player? I'm huge on pre-combine draft magazine. They watch all the game tape and give you scouting reports based off that. I follow that up with combine numbers, stats, pro-days and then things like workouts and senior bowls. I just care what players could do in actual games more than anything else. That tape per three out of my four magazines doesn't think he's a great route runner. Got rounds his routes, ran a limited route tree and needed to be more physical in getting open. At the same time nfl.com has a scout saying his routes look way better in practices like you just posted than they ever did watching the game tape. So take that information as you want, yet it's clearly there. My two cents he's working on what scouts had questions about trying to answer those questions. Yet can he do that during games? It's why what your using is what I put the least stock in. So many players year after year look better in these practices or combine showing and get over picked or vice versa. Did he just get better? Was he used incorrectly at Ohio State? Was it because of Ohio States overall talent level? He's a crazy hard one, because he played with an elite QB that put up elite numbers. Yet was 3-4 on the depth chart on a deep receiving core. He's a perfect example of why the draft isn't easy. I'd also say that route running is maybe the hardest things for scouts to agree on. The good scouts look at everything. The type of routes, how cleanly and precise he ran them, how he gets open, consistency, things like press coverage hurting you, etc. The bad or non scouts and you get a ton of information from guys like that right now watch limited tape and then give you scouting reports off like two games and a senior bowl workout. It's why I limit my information to sources I know and have used for years because you can literally find scouting reports from John Smith saying anything this time of year. He's a very good target that checks a lot of boxes. He has a good amount of upside number 2/3 WR depending on who you believe more. He just hasn't shown the route running your talking about during games. Which is why I have him in the 3rd to 5th rounds as a target. Which says a lot more about this draft classes depth than him frankly. Yeh what I’ve read is he’s a good route runner. He doesn’t have a ton of routes on tape because Ohio State ran a bunch of crossing slant patterns. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2019 14:56:12 GMT -5
What matters to you when evaluating a player? I'm huge on pre-combine draft magazine. They watch all the game tape and give you scouting reports based off that. I follow that up with combine numbers, stats, pro-days and then things like workouts and senior bowls. I just care what players could do in actual games more than anything else. That tape per three out of my four magazines doesn't think he's a great route runner. Got rounds his routes, ran a limited route tree and needed to be more physical in getting open. At the same time nfl.com has a scout saying his routes look way better in practices like you just posted than they ever did watching the game tape. So take that information as you want, yet it's clearly there. My two cents he's working on what scouts had questions about trying to answer those questions. Yet can he do that during games? It's why what your using is what I put the least stock in. So many players year after year look better in these practices or combine showing and get over picked or vice versa. Did he just get better? Was he used incorrectly at Ohio State? Was it because of Ohio States overall talent level? He's a crazy hard one, because he played with an elite QB that put up elite numbers. Yet was 3-4 on the depth chart on a deep receiving core. He's a perfect example of why the draft isn't easy. I'd also say that route running is maybe the hardest things for scouts to agree on. The good scouts look at everything. The type of routes, how cleanly and precise he ran them, how he gets open, consistency, things like press coverage hurting you, etc. The bad or non scouts and you get a ton of information from guys like that right now watch limited tape and then give you scouting reports off like two games and a senior bowl workout. It's why I limit my information to sources I know and have used for years because you can literally find scouting reports from John Smith saying anything this time of year. He's a very good target that checks a lot of boxes. He has a good amount of upside number 2/3 WR depending on who you believe more. He just hasn't shown the route running your talking about during games. Which is why I have him in the 3rd to 5th rounds as a target. Which says a lot more about this draft classes depth than him frankly. Yeh what I’ve read is he’s a good route runner. He doesn’t have a ton of routes on tape because Ohio State ran a bunch of crossing slant patterns. Trying to figure out if a guy should be drafted in the second rd vs the 3rd, 4th or 5th when it comes the Pats is fruitless. They drafted Jordan Richards in the 2nd. They don’t care about other people’s draft thoughts for the most part. Yea they trade down and play a little bit of the prediction game but they don’t get too cute with it. If the guy fits their profile and a good value trade isn’t on the table they will take him even if it’s “too high”. Guys also fall off their board easily. I was watching one of their behind the scenes videos and their draft board only had 80 something draftable players on it one of the years recently. |
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Post by texs31 on Mar 18, 2019 15:14:37 GMT -5
I posted an article at the outset of this board that referenced Caserio's thoughts (or at least what he wanted folks to believe were his thoughts) on the subject.
EDIT: IF you combine the comments by Bill, Lombardi and Caserio (note, I there is no confirmation that these comments were made in conjunction with each other so it is, of course, possible that they reflect different processes - or variations of the process) you get:
1. A board of about 50-75 guys (NC indicated 75 is probably high)
2. Put into columns by position
3. Put into rows by value (not round) based on what role the player would have for the Patriots (starter, role player, developmental, etc).
Given how they trade up and down the board and seemingly overdraft guys, it makes sense.
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Post by philarhody on Mar 18, 2019 15:54:05 GMT -5
Yeh what I’ve read is he’s a good route runner. He doesn’t have a ton of routes on tape because Ohio State ran a bunch of crossing slant patterns. Trying to figure out if a guy should be drafted in the second rd vs the 3rd, 4th or 5th when it comes the Pats is fruitless. They drafted Jordan Richards in the 2nd. They don’t care about other people’s draft thoughts for the most part. Yea they trade down and play a little bit of the prediction game but they don’t get too cute with it. If the guy fits their profile and a good value trade isn’t on the table they will take him even if it’s “too high”. Guys also fall off their board easily. I was watching one of their behind the scenes videos and their draft board only had 80 something draftable players on it one of the years recently. This is A good point. My hot take on McLaurin has everything to do with his intangibles and some skills that lend them selves to a scheme heavy offense. I could just picture The patriots drafting him higher than all the experts Are predicting |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 18, 2019 19:06:06 GMT -5
Yeh what I’ve read is he’s a good route runner. He doesn’t have a ton of routes on tape because Ohio State ran a bunch of crossing slant patterns. Trying to figure out if a guy should be drafted in the second rd vs the 3rd, 4th or 5th when it comes the Pats is fruitless. They drafted Jordan Richards in the 2nd. They don’t care about other people’s draft thoughts for the most part. Yea they trade down and play a little bit of the prediction game but they don’t get too cute with it. If the guy fits their profile and a good value trade isn’t on the table they will take him even if it’s “too high”. Guys also fall off their board easily. I was watching one of their behind the scenes videos and their draft board only had 80 something draftable players on it one of the years recently. Umm so we have almost 20 years of drafts and only two picks fit that could have been 2nd or could have been 5th round type guys and they are both safeties Richards and Wilson. They actually map rankings a lot better then what your saying. They'll overdraft some guys, every team does. They also hit value a ton of the time. So I don't think it's fruitless at all because of two picks. Those were just outlier picks, not the norm and every team has them. They have actually done a good job nailing value recently. Bill seems to have learned from his mistakes. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2019 19:50:12 GMT -5
Trying to figure out if a guy should be drafted in the second rd vs the 3rd, 4th or 5th when it comes the Pats is fruitless. They drafted Jordan Richards in the 2nd. They don’t care about other people’s draft thoughts for the most part. Yea they trade down and play a little bit of the prediction game but they don’t get too cute with it. If the guy fits their profile and a good value trade isn’t on the table they will take him even if it’s “too high”. Guys also fall off their board easily. I was watching one of their behind the scenes videos and their draft board only had 80 something draftable players on it one of the years recently. Umm so we have almost 20 years of drafts and only two picks fit that could have been 2nd or could have been 5th round type guys and they are both safeties Richards and Wilson. They actually map rankings a lot better then what your saying. They'll overdraft some guys, every team does. They also hit value a ton of the time. So I don't think it's fruitless at all because of two picks. Those were just outlier picks, not the norm and every team has them. They have actually done a good job nailing value recently. Bill seems to have learned from his mistakes. If 3rd is reasonable then the second isn’t out of question especially with a team like the Pats. Don’t just use the low end of your range to make your point. |
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Post by philarhody on Mar 18, 2019 19:52:31 GMT -5
Umm so we have almost 20 years of drafts and only two picks fit that could have been 2nd or could have been 5th round type guys and they are both safeties Richards and Wilson. They actually map rankings a lot better then what your saying. They'll overdraft some guys, every team does. They also hit value a ton of the time. So I don't think it's fruitless at all because of two picks. Those were just outlier picks, not the norm and every team has them. They have actually done a good job nailing value recently. Bill seems to have learned from his mistakes. If 3rd is reasonable then the second isn’t out of question especially with a team like the Pats. Don’t just use the low end of your range to make your point. Brandon Spikes hobbles over the 40 yard dash line and says hello. Edit @ umass |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2019 20:11:55 GMT -5
If 3rd is reasonable then the second isn’t out of question especially with a team like the Pats. Don’t just use the low end of your range to make your point. Brandon Spikes hobbles over the 40 yard dash line and says hello. Edit @ umass The one that jumped out at me that he ignored was Duron Harmon. A lot of people had him not being drafted and they took him in the 3rd. He may have just been limiting himself to the 2nd round tho idk. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 19, 2019 0:16:39 GMT -5
Umm so we have almost 20 years of drafts and only two picks fit that could have been 2nd or could have been 5th round type guys and they are both safeties Richards and Wilson. They actually map rankings a lot better then what your saying. They'll overdraft some guys, every team does. They also hit value a ton of the time. So I don't think it's fruitless at all because of two picks. Those were just outlier picks, not the norm and every team has them. They have actually done a good job nailing value recently. Bill seems to have learned from his mistakes. If 3rd is reasonable then the second isn’t out of question especially with a team like the Pats. Don’t just use the low end of your range to make your point. Is a 3rd reasonable? His rankings are 17th nfl.com, 18th 3rd round grade, 22nd 5th to 6th round, 17th 4th round, 41st 7th round are my 4 draft magazines. The one that gives him a third round grade rates him 18th, he rates his WR through 23 as third rounders. Which is crazy. Either this is an epic class and he's onto something or he messed up. You know 17th is 4th round in the other and 22nd is 5th to 6th in another guide. I listed third because that's what he said, yet he doesn't rate him as a third, have 17 WRs ever gone in the top three rounds? That would be almost 20% of the picks at one position. Combined his overall ranking is a 4th to 5th round in my opinion. Taking him in the third will be jumping over a ton of higher rated receivers. Taking him in the second is jumping likely into the top 10 receivers. So yea if you see him as a third round guy it isn't crazy, the question is do you? I don't, they might take him in the third depending on what happens. That's my they love him and overdraft him range. Frankly while I think he's a good target at the right point in the draft I have some major worries about him. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 19, 2019 0:21:02 GMT -5
If 3rd is reasonable then the second isn’t out of question especially with a team like the Pats. Don’t just use the low end of your range to make your point. Brandon Spikes hobbles over the 40 yard dash line and says hello. Edit @ umass He was drafted where he was projected, heck some people thought it was great value. I also liked the player till they switched back to a 4-3 Defense. Is that really why you love Terry McLaurin because of his 40 time? Bethel Johnson and Chad Jackson say hello. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 19, 2019 0:31:41 GMT -5
Brandon Spikes hobbles over the 40 yard dash line and says hello. Edit @ umass The one that jumped out at me that he ignored was Duron Harmon. A lot of people had him not being drafted and they took him in the 3rd. He may have just been limiting himself to the 2nd round tho idk. Well yea I looked at the 2nd round. I had all three of those guys as 5th to 7th rounders, they went 48th, 64, and 91. So yea Harmon was an overdraft, but not even close to Wilson and Richards in my book because he went late third not mid to late second. You passed up a lot less quality players with Harmon. It also doesn't hurt that Harmon was a quality pick and those other picks were just horrible either. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 19, 2019 5:38:45 GMT -5
If 3rd is reasonable then the second isn’t out of question especially with a team like the Pats. Don’t just use the low end of your range to make your point. Is a 3rd reasonable? His rankings are 17th nfl.com, 18th 3rd round grade, 22nd 5th to 6th round, 17th 4th round, 41st 7th round are my 4 draft magazines. The one that gives him a third round grade rates him 18th, he rates his WR through 23 as third rounders. Which is crazy. Either this is an epic class and he's onto something or he messed up. You know 17th is 4th round in the other and 22nd is 5th to 6th in another guide. I listed third because that's what he said, yet he doesn't rate him as a third, have 17 WRs ever gone in the top three rounds? That would be almost 20% of the picks at one position. Combined his overall ranking is a 4th to 5th round in my opinion. Taking him in the third will be jumping over a ton of higher rated receivers. Taking him in the second is jumping likely into the top 10 receivers. So yea if you see him as a third round guy it isn't crazy, the question is do you? I don't, they might take him in the third depending on what happens. That's my they love him and overdraft him range. Frankly while I think he's a good target at the right point in the draft I have some major worries about him. I just went off of what you said. 3rd-5th rd was reasonable so taking that type of guy if you love him at the end of the second isn’t crazy and debating the minutia of it here is pointless. Just stick to the player and why he’s a good fit for the Patriots or why he’s not. I’m not telling you where he should go. |
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Post by philarhody on Mar 19, 2019 7:50:21 GMT -5
Brandon Spikes hobbles over the 40 yard dash line and says hello. Edit @ umass He was drafted where he was projected, heck some people thought it was great value. I also liked the player till they switched back to a 4-3 Defense. Is that really why you love Terry McLaurin because of his 40 time? Nope. |
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Post by texs31 on Mar 19, 2019 12:33:06 GMT -5
Ryan Allen back on a 1 yr deal, per Rapsheet and Reiss
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 19, 2019 12:50:42 GMT -5
Ryan Allen back on a 1 yr deal, per Rapsheet and Reiss I’m still annoyed I can’t get Pennels contract details. |
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Post by texs31 on Mar 19, 2019 13:17:23 GMT -5
Ask and ye shall receive:
Volin reporting:
Patriots DT Mike Pennel signed a 2-year deal with a base value of $5m, plus $3m incentives. Comes with just $500k guaranteed (his signing bonus).
Can make $2.4m + $1.5m incentives in 2019, and $2.6m + $1.5m incentives in 2020.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 19, 2019 13:20:46 GMT -5
Ask and ye shall receive: Volin reporting: Patriots DT Mike Pennel signed a 2-year deal with a base value of $5m, plus $3m incentives. Comes with just $500k guaranteed (his signing bonus). Can make $2.4m + $1.5m incentives in 2019, and $2.6m + $1.5m incentives in 2020. That’s a nice deal... i bet his incentives are games played; they love to do those. Probably has an element of snap percentage in there as well. |
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Post by texs31 on Mar 19, 2019 14:31:09 GMT -5
100K workout and 50*16 = 800 per game in Volin's follow up.
EDIT: Not sure what the rest of the 600K bonuses are based on.
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