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2019 Patriots Offseason Thread
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Post by philarhody on Mar 21, 2019 11:55:23 GMT -5
Nevermind he couldn't have watched much tape, because all six on my sources have a lot of negatives about his tape. You can't overlook that. You're right. We can never overlook your sources umassgrad. God forbid.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 21, 2019 14:08:34 GMT -5
Nevermind he couldn't have watched much tape, because all six on my sources have a lot of negatives about his tape. You can't overlook that. You're right. We can never overlook your sources umassgrad. God forbid. This made me laugh
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 21, 2019 15:49:44 GMT -5
You guys are 100% right I should ditch my draft magazines and top of the line internet sources like NFL.com and Walter Football and use tweets from beat reporters. You know guys calling a WR a second round pick, then passing on him in the 3rd round of his mock draft because he likes another WR. What was I thinking.
You guys can use whatever information you want, have any opinion you want. Just don't tell me my draft magazines aren't the best source of information on draft prospects college tape. NFL.com and Walter Football also do their reports pre-combine. Which is the information you want! You want to know how the guys play in games against other players. Not how the guy looks running drills, at the combine and at his pro-day. It's like people can't remember guys like Ross and Dorsett in recent drafts. Went flying up draft boards because they were fast and looked great in workouts. It's like the number one Red Flag with a WR if a fast 40 time and workouts raise his draft stock like crazy compared to his College tape and stats.
This just feels like you guys are arguing ERA and Wins are a great way to evaluate a pitcher. It goes against everything I've learned in 20 plus years of being a draft junkie. Decades of the biggest draft blunders and steals are rooted in these tweets you guys keep posting that put way too much value into workouts.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 21, 2019 18:30:20 GMT -5
You guys are 100% right I should ditch my draft magazines and top of the line internet sources like NFL.com and Walter Football and use tweets from beat reporters. You know guys calling a WR a second round pick, then passing on him in the 3rd round of his mock draft because he likes another WR. What was I thinking. You guys can use whatever information you want, have any opinion you want. Just don't tell me my draft magazines aren't the best source of information on draft prospects college tape. NFL.com and Walter Football also do their reports pre-combine. Which is the information you want! You want to know how the guys play in games against other players. Not how the guy looks running drills, at the combine and at his pro-day. It's like people can't remember guys like Ross and Dorsett in recent drafts. Went flying up draft boards because they were fast and looked great in workouts. It's like the number one Red Flag with a WR if a fast 40 time and workouts raise his draft stock like crazy compared to his College tape and stats. This just feels like you guys are arguing ERA and Wins are a great way to evaluate a pitcher. It goes against everything I've learned in 20 plus years of being a draft junkie. Decades of the biggest draft blunders and steals are rooted in these tweets you guys keep posting that put way too much value into workouts. You realize I just posted a tweet with no commentary bc it was relevant to the conversation right? Interesting it came out after that talk. Don’t read my opinions into it. I personally don’t want the guy. Phil’s response was funny tho because you made the assumption the guy didn’t want tape because his opinion differed from “your guys”. Then said “you can’t overlook that.”
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Post by texs31 on Mar 22, 2019 6:45:35 GMT -5
Field Yates reporting that NE has converted 8.5 mm of Gilmores contract to signing bonus. Creates $5.67 mn in space.
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Post by costpet on Mar 22, 2019 8:06:43 GMT -5
That’s why Brady lasted until the 6th round. I’ m guessing some of those mags didn’t even have him on the board. Gronkowski a 2nd round pick. Certainly not a 1st rounder.
I hope those mags influence the other GMs. Do you think BB reads them, too?
Save your money. Just read all those moc drafts on the internet. It’s an exercise in folly.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 22, 2019 8:24:53 GMT -5
That’s why Brady lasted until the 6th round. I’ m guessing some of those mags didn’t even have him on the board. Gronkowski a 2nd round pick. Certainly not a 1st rounder. I hope those mags influence the other GMs. Do you think BB reads them, too? Save your money. Just read all those moc drafts on the internet. It’s an exercise in folly. Gronk lasted to the second round because of his back surgery.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 22, 2019 8:25:50 GMT -5
Field Yates reporting that NE has converted 8.5 mm of Gilmores contract to signing bonus. Creates $5.67 mn in space. Looks like most of this saving is about to go to Goskowski, which while boring is necessary.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 22, 2019 8:29:40 GMT -5
I’ve seen a couple people connect Nelson to the Patriots lately. Right size, right school, good grades and production. Sounds like a Patriots 3/4 rounder.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 22, 2019 9:40:17 GMT -5
You guys are 100% right I should ditch my draft magazines and top of the line internet sources like NFL.com and Walter Football and use tweets from beat reporters. You know guys calling a WR a second round pick, then passing on him in the 3rd round of his mock draft because he likes another WR. What was I thinking. You guys can use whatever information you want, have any opinion you want. Just don't tell me my draft magazines aren't the best source of information on draft prospects college tape. NFL.com and Walter Football also do their reports pre-combine. Which is the information you want! You want to know how the guys play in games against other players. Not how the guy looks running drills, at the combine and at his pro-day. It's like people can't remember guys like Ross and Dorsett in recent drafts. Went flying up draft boards because they were fast and looked great in workouts. It's like the number one Red Flag with a WR if a fast 40 time and workouts raise his draft stock like crazy compared to his College tape and stats. This just feels like you guys are arguing ERA and Wins are a great way to evaluate a pitcher. It goes against everything I've learned in 20 plus years of being a draft junkie. Decades of the biggest draft blunders and steals are rooted in these tweets you guys keep posting that put way too much value into workouts. You realize I just posted a tweet with no commentary bc it was relevant to the conversation right? Interesting it came out after that talk. Don’t read my opinions into it. I personally don’t want the guy. Phil’s response was funny tho because you made the assumption the guy didn’t want tape because his opinion differed from “your guys”. Then said “you can’t overlook that.” It wasn't directed at just you, as Phil had used a tweet to try and show route running ability before that. At the same time lets not act like out of the 1,000 of tweets on players you didn't post that one for a certain reason. I said he must not have watched much tape and he didn't. His mock literally shows the short highlight tapes he's using. You can literally look at his notes. He's watching these guys at things like the combine and pro-days and then watching highlight tapes to do his rankings. Which is backwards from what every good scout does. He's not a scout and didn't watch all the tape because everyone that did all say the samething. Some guys are hard, scouts don't agree. A guy like Christian Sam last year comes to mind, he was all over the place based on his tape. Everyone agrees on Terry McLaurin tape though. So yea it's rather easy to tell in three seconds if a guy actually watched all of the tape and did a good scouting report or did a hot take. Terry McLaurin tape is easy to digest as they all agree. A guy like Clayton Thorson now that is a different story, he's all over the place. They don't come close to agreeing on him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 22, 2019 10:01:03 GMT -5
That’s why Brady lasted until the 6th round. I’ m guessing some of those mags didn’t even have him on the board. Gronkowski a 2nd round pick. Certainly not a 1st rounder. I hope those mags influence the other GMs. Do you think BB reads them, too? Save your money. Just read all those moc drafts on the internet. It’s an exercise in folly. Exact opposite the draft magazines had Brady rated higher. That example is one of the reasons I started getting so many draft magazines for the past two decades. It was more the combine and that crap that killed Brady's value because he was slow and couldn't move well. I'd have to check my dads house, I don't think I have those anymore, I was in High School when that draft took place. Yet from what I remember he was in everyone of them. The guy was splitting time with Drew Henson who people thought could be a #1 overall pick. Gronk was seen as a first round pick, every magazine said just that. Yet back surgery knocked him down the boards. I have no clue what Bill does. The only thing I know is I don't have a team of scouts, the time or ability to watch all the tape on these guys. The draft magazines when you combine them all give you a crazy good foundation in which to judge players. The hard part with the Patriots isn't finding players that fit the system. It's finding the players they want. Which is based off more than just how they play. They take a lot less risky players than most teams and value things like smarts and character more than most teams. Mock drafts are horrible for the most part. Way too many crappy ones. Stick to the good ones like Walter Football. Year after year they are among the top mocks getting the most picks right. Heck you should give the magazines a try, you won't be disappointed. It really changes how you look at the draft.
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Post by philarhody on Mar 22, 2019 10:07:27 GMT -5
I’ve seen a couple people connect Nelson to the Patriots lately. Right size, right school, good grades and production. Sounds like a Patriots 3/4 rounder. I love Anthony Nelson. I’m worried a team in the 2nd round/early 3rd does too. This guy checks all the boxes. I would take him over every edge in this draft besides Bosa and maybe Ferrell. Honestly, I wouldn’t be upset if the Patriots used their 1st on him. I know, you don’t have to tell me that’s a reach for him. But the Patriots don’t draft like other teams. I remember when they drafted Mankins, mocks had projected him to NE in the 2nd round. Similar story on Vollmer. NE doesnt allow the mock draft consensus to affect their rankings on players. Edit: forgot about Josh Allen
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 22, 2019 10:15:10 GMT -5
Nelson is a fit, that 3 cone time is what the Patriots love. As an athlete he's great. I will say though that he seems to lack power, rather low bench press total for a guy that big. Most recent DL that the Patriots went after were very strong, which makes sense given what Bill likes to do.
I don't get the Gilmore restructure. Sure it's nice to free up money, but you just made his future cap hits like 10% of the cap. You also had better options that made more sense. Unless this is just step one in clearing a bunch of space for a big move I'm confused. Are we going after a WR? Maybe a sneaky good move at Suh? I just would have focused on Brady and McCourty personally.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 22, 2019 10:34:09 GMT -5
You realize I just posted a tweet with no commentary bc it was relevant to the conversation right? Interesting it came out after that talk. Don’t read my opinions into it. I personally don’t want the guy. Phil’s response was funny tho because you made the assumption the guy didn’t want tape because his opinion differed from “your guys”. Then said “you can’t overlook that.” It wasn't directed at just you, as Phil had used a tweet to try and show route running ability before that. At the same time lets not act like out of the 1,000 of tweets on players you didn't post that one for a certain reason. Correct, because it directly related to a conversation the two of you just had. And my apologies for misunderstanding your use of “you guys” to include just Phil.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 22, 2019 10:37:18 GMT -5
I don't get the Gilmore restructure. Sure it's nice to free up money, but you just made his future cap hits like 10% of the cap. You also had better options that made more sense. Unless this is just step one in clearing a bunch of space for a big move I'm confused. Are we going after a WR? Maybe a sneaky good move at Suh? I just would have focused on Brady and McCourty personally. It takes 2 to tango on a restructure. You can’t just do it. If guys aren’t cooperating they are in a tough spot cap wise. They need to sign a kicker and the draft class plus they have other needs and they always want space available to make in season moves.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 23, 2019 7:53:26 GMT -5
Nelson is a fit, that 3 cone time is what the Patriots love. As an athlete he's great. I will say though that he seems to lack power, rather low bench press total for a guy that big. Most recent DL that the Patriots went after were very strong, which makes sense given what Bill likes to do. I don't get the Gilmore restructure. Sure it's nice to free up money, but you just made his future cap hits like 10% of the cap. You also had better options that made more sense. Unless this is just step one in clearing a bunch of space for a big move I'm confused. Are we going after a WR? Maybe a sneaky good move at Suh? I just would have focused on Brady and McCourty personally. The low BP # is related to the long arms. I have really long arms and could never bench much at all compared to the weight I could use in pulling exorcises. Long arms are a curse for benching but great for the game. That is a great 3 cone though. The more I look at this draft and the depth at positions of need the more hopeful I am the Pats will really fill out their roster. Oline, DL, TE, WR and maybe a QB. Simmons falling would be a classic BB pick. In regards to Gilmore do you think they would be comfortable enough with his age to extend him and push the cap # down a bit for those years?
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 23, 2019 10:39:17 GMT -5
Something I read speculated that the Patriots could trade their 1st round pick this year for a 2020 1st. On the surface, I kind of like the idea because there doesn't seem to be a must have 1st round guy (except Hockenson) and with the 5 picks in the next two rounds they could still fill their needs. At some point they have to address the QB spot and next year is supposed to be a good year to do it, so some extra ammo would be nice. Any thoughts? Depends what else they get. They had a little run there where they traded their first for a second and a future 1. But other teams smartened up. So if they deal their first for a 2020 first plus a 2019 2 or 3 then yea it makes sense.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 23, 2019 10:46:27 GMT -5
Nelson is a fit, that 3 cone time is what the Patriots love. As an athlete he's great. I will say though that he seems to lack power, rather low bench press total for a guy that big. Most recent DL that the Patriots went after were very strong, which makes sense given what Bill likes to do. I don't get the Gilmore restructure. Sure it's nice to free up money, but you just made his future cap hits like 10% of the cap. You also had better options that made more sense. Unless this is just step one in clearing a bunch of space for a big move I'm confused. Are we going after a WR? Maybe a sneaky good move at Suh? I just would have focused on Brady and McCourty personally. The low BP # is related to the long arms. I have really long arms and could never bench much at all compared to the weight I could use in pulling exorcises. Long arms are a curse for benching but great for the game. That is a great 3 cone though. The more I look at this draft and the depth at positions of need the more hopeful I am the Pats will really fill out their roster. Oline, DL, TE, WR and maybe a QB. Simmons falling would be a classic BB pick. In regards to Gilmore do you think they would be comfortable enough with his age to extend him and push the cap # down a bit for those years? It might be part of the reason, but it's not like he has the longest arms ever either. Chandler Jones had much longer arms 35.5 and did 22 reps weighing less than Nelson did. You kinda see it in Nelson numbers against the run and his sack conversion rate that RJP posted. He's one of the weakest guys on the DL in this draft, with everyone below him being 250 pounds. He kinda screams 3-4 OLB no? I just worry about that because 18 reps is crazy low for a big DE and even Chandler Jones wasn't great against the run. I don't know. It all depends how Gilmore keeps performing . It just seems crazy to push the second highest cap number on the team up 3 million per in future seasons as he gets older. 10% of the cap is no joke, so they might have to do something. I just don't get why it wasn't Brady. That is by far the easiest one and these is zero reason not to do it. Plus you have McCourty who has a crazy high number. Let's assume Brady's deal isn't done for a reason that doesn't involve him sking and you need money right now. Not even sure if your only signing a kicker you need money right now, but ok. I'd go to McCourty offer a nice 3 year extension that increased his money in pocket this year, yet greatly reduced his cap number. I don't see the downside frankly. Guys his age don't get massive free agent contacts. He doesn't want to play ball I'd release him. That seems better than making Gilmores numbers crazy. Unless this is Brady's last year, even then it makes zero sense for him to not redo his deal. So yea I just don't get it. Gilmore is setting himself up to be cut if his play drops. I don't like that, he's the heart of that secondary not McCourty who frankly hasn't been that impressive recently.
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Post by philarhody on Mar 23, 2019 11:08:22 GMT -5
The low BP # is related to the long arms. I have really long arms and could never bench much at all compared to the weight I could use in pulling exorcises. Long arms are a curse for benching but great for the game. That is a great 3 cone though. The more I look at this draft and the depth at positions of need the more hopeful I am the Pats will really fill out their roster. Oline, DL, TE, WR and maybe a QB. Simmons falling would be a classic BB pick. In regards to Gilmore do you think they would be comfortable enough with his age to extend him and push the cap # down a bit for those years? It might be part of the reason, but it's not like he has the longest arms ever either. Chandler Jones had much longer arms 35.5 and did 22 reps weighing less than Nelson did. You kinda see it in Nelson numbers against the run and his sack conversion rate that RJP posted. He's one of the weakest guys on the DL in this draft, with everyone below him being 250 pounds. He kinda screams 3-4 OLB no? I just worry about that because 18 reps is crazy low for a big DE and even Chandler Jones wasn't great against the run. I went back and watched some of Nelson’s tape and I’m inclined to agree with you. He’s definitely not real forceful at the point of attack. It seems like right now he’s probably a bit of a developmental prospect. The bench press is less important to me than the functional strength for the reasons that voiceofreason stated. But when I watched his tape at Miss State, there is very little “jar” when he takes on blocks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 23, 2019 11:34:01 GMT -5
The Patriots will almost always trade a first this year for a 2nd this year and future first. Teams just need to offer it. We've already had the Browns claim only 15 players have first round grades for them this year. I kinda think that is BS to make the OBJ trade look better. Yet I keep seeing 18 to 22 at a lot of places. So good chance no player at 32 has a first round grade for the Patriots, but you never know with them. Everyone does agree the strength of the draft is the 2nd and 3rd rounds and you see that scouting the players.
So yea trade down is always a great guess with the Patriots. They almost always want to, yet they can't always find the right deals. I'm going to say no trade and that they might gamble. The Michel pick kinda showed as Brady gets older they changed things up and it worked perfectly. Might not be a bad time to slightly overdraft a guy at a position with a huge need.
The wild card being QB also. I'm torn on a guy like Daniel Jones. Not sure it's close to great value, but QBs get overdrafted every year. That 5th year option is massive for a QB and he checks a ton of boxes. Nevermind Josh Rosen.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 23, 2019 11:59:49 GMT -5
The low BP # is related to the long arms. I have really long arms and could never bench much at all compared to the weight I could use in pulling exorcises. Long arms are a curse for benching but great for the game. That is a great 3 cone though. The more I look at this draft and the depth at positions of need the more hopeful I am the Pats will really fill out their roster. Oline, DL, TE, WR and maybe a QB. Simmons falling would be a classic BB pick. In regards to Gilmore do you think they would be comfortable enough with his age to extend him and push the cap # down a bit for those years? I just don't get why it wasn't Brady. That is by far the easiest one and these is zero reason not to do it. At the risk of going down this rabbit hole again. ...The reason it may not have been Brady could be because it’s POSSIBLE he can’t do anything to his contract until August. Originally, it was reported he could because he didn’t add any new money, but that’s come into question since and it’s been hard to find any clarity on it. But it would explain why his contract hasn’t been done yet.
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Post by philarhody on Mar 23, 2019 12:48:58 GMT -5
The Patriots will almost always trade a first this year for a 2nd this year and future first. Teams just need to offer it. We've already had the Browns claim only 15 players have first round grades for them this year. I kinda think that is BS to make the OBJ trade look better. Yet I keep seeing 18 to 22 at a lot of places. So good chance no player at 32 has a first round grade for the Patriots, but you never know with them. Everyone does agree the strength of the draft is the 2nd and 3rd rounds and you see that scouting the players. So yea trade down is always a great guess with the Patriots. They almost always want to, yet they can't always find the right deals. I'm going to say no trade and that they might gamble. The Michel pick kinda showed as Brady gets older they changed things up and it worked perfectly. Might not be a bad time to slightly overdraft a guy at a position with a huge need. The wild card being QB also. I'm torn on a guy like Daniel Jones. Not sure it's close to great value, but QBs get overdrafted every year. That 5th year option is massive for a QB and he checks a ton of boxes. Nevermind Josh Rosen. I heard that same thing about how the Browns perceived this draft. It is true that draft picks have become overvalued in many ways. It’s become harderto trade down, whereas 10 years ago the patriots would trade their first round pick for a second this year and a first next! Those were the days.. I think the best value right now is to trade for proven commodities on rookie contracts, trade up for talent in the draft, and/or draft a starting qb. I’m kind of intrigued by Jones as well. I think more teams need to treat their rookie qbs like Russell Wilson and Tom Brady were treated early on. Have a veteran starter. If the young guy takes over, make it easy on him. Screens, checkdowns and a run heavy offense. I could totally see Jones flourishing in a system like that. He makes good pre snap reads. I like his footwork and he’s accurate even though he doesn’t always throw from a good base. When I first watched his Clemson tape I thought “this guys pretty good even though he is severely overmatched.” Then all the experts started dinging him up on arm strength and personality. But I went back and watched the Va Tech game and thought he looked good. His receivers dropped some well placed deep balls.
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Post by philarhody on Mar 23, 2019 12:50:01 GMT -5
Here’s a question: Murray or Haskins? I like Haskins a lot but I understand why Arizona is probably drafting Murray.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 23, 2019 13:58:03 GMT -5
Just so you know this is what the Patriots compete against. This may be the worst quote I’ve ever heard from a GM.
"When we look at players we look at talent," Williams said of Collins' signing, per NBC Sports Washington's JP Finlay. "It's up to the defensive coordinator and the defensive back coaches to scheme him up. We're not in the room with the scheme. I don't know exactly what the scheme is."
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 23, 2019 14:03:01 GMT -5
Here’s a question: Murray or Haskins? I like Haskins a lot but I understand why Arizona is probably drafting Murray. Murray seems pretty damn good but I’ve given up on predicting QBs. There’s just a mental aspect of that position that’s almost impossible to get by watching tape and even college games. They can fool you pretty easily.
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