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2019 Patriots Offseason Thread
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 30, 2019 7:36:10 GMT -5
Harry was originally one of my favorite WR prospects but I’ve since cooled on him a little bit.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 30, 2019 7:49:11 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 30, 2019 8:25:44 GMT -5
First mock draft simulator in a while, like the results. Would have rather not drafted Smith in the first but the DL that I wanted were gone and we are desperate for weapons in the passing game. Didn’t get any of the higher end DL I wanted and I passed on some of my favorites safeties but like it overall. I never draft QBs in my drafts but with who was on the board, I felt Finley was good value here.
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Post by philarhody on Mar 30, 2019 10:33:55 GMT -5
First mock draft simulator in a while, like the results. Would have rather not drafted Smith in the first but the DL that I wanted were gone and we are desperate for weapons in the passing game. Didn’t get any of the higher end DL I wanted and I passed on some of my favorites safeties but like it overall. I never draft QBs in my drafts but with who was on the board, I felt Finley was good value here. Nice! Honestly, I'd be almost as excited about your last 5 picks as your first 5. That's how deep this draft is.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 30, 2019 11:19:42 GMT -5
Those guys make sense. Does Harry truly fit our system? Is AJ Brown the perfect fit scouting reports say? Then Boykins literally the perfect Patriot outside WR based off the combine. Yet you need to back that up. He is a little raw and Notre Dame didn't have a QB that could truly use him. I really struggle with where you take Boykins. I will say Harry is kinda all over the place, you love him or you don't. Draft Mags have him 1st,2nd, 3rd, and 7th.
I have big time doubts that Gerald Willis is on our draft board. Got kicked off Florida. Maybe if he drops, not second round though. We love team Captains not guys that get booted from teams.
Yea it will be an epic draft if guys like Morgan and Wise are 7th round picks. I love Morgan, I've been warming up to RJPs mock taking him in the 4th. Overall nice draft, I'd just love a DE given how deep the class is.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 30, 2019 19:39:40 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2019 10:35:28 GMT -5
Scouts inc. rates 17 players as first round picks, 47 as second round picks and 53 as third round picks. Kinda shows you the value in the second and third, nevermind 4th and 5th rounds.
Assuming Rosen is the guy we want and they want a first round pick. What about our first for Rosen and their third rounder? Value wise it's like giving up a late second. They save face and get a first in the deal.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2019 12:51:51 GMT -5
I guess I'm confused, do you mean Murray instead of Haskins?
The reason Murray makes sense is he fits the new coaches offense like a glove, Haskins doesn't he's more of a pure pocket passer like Rosen. Given that teams issues, Murray could really help hide them and improve that team. Nothing harder to defend in the NFL than a QB that can throw, run and throw on the run.
Rosen is like Brady, a pure pocket passer. He needs a great OL, a very good system and weapons to do well.
It all comes down to it you think Murray is a legit QB, if you do it makes total sense. Not sure I'd take that gamble. Yet it makes sense, he's electric. You just better be right.
Who knows what's legit, but reports say the Cardinals already have a second round pick from the Chargers on the table. That trade idea was my way of beating that offer, while not losing a pick and frankly I struggle to find good value at pick 32 unless guys drop. In my scenario I'd make it on draft day if someone doesn't drop. If Bill likes Rosen that's all I need. The talent is clearly there, it's the leadership I question, yet late second round pick is a good gamble. Like Rosen is way better than Finley.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 1, 2019 14:03:12 GMT -5
If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years it’s that it doesn’t matter how another team evaluates a player. Detroit evaluated Van Noy to suck for example. System fit is so important and other teams are dumb. I don’t know what to think about Rosen I just don’t subscribe to if the Cardinals don’t like him then we shouldn’t school of thought.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 1, 2019 14:16:01 GMT -5
Not a fan of the descriptions in Scouts' "tiering" and (personally) pay the least attention to the round in those. Not sure I follow why an "outstanding prospect" at the QB position (Lock for example) wouldn't be considered a 1st Rounder (even a lock, pardon the pun).
Focusing on the rest of the descriptions, 80+ seem like starter caliber which would be closer to how NE would evaluate (not suggesting that they would give the same ratings to these players but a 3 down player who is a starter would be high on their draft board).
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 1, 2019 14:51:31 GMT -5
The other aspect of trading down is you have fewer guys to choose from, duh.. i know. But you may really want 2 of the many receivers but not the others. So trading down could hurt you. This is all obvious but depth will entice you to trade down if there’s not a guy you really want and can get good value.... all this cap room tells me it’s more likely they trade up in the first or use it to trade for a veteran receiver.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 1, 2019 15:01:03 GMT -5
I guess I'm confused, do you mean Murray instead of Haskins? The reason Murray makes sense is he fits the new coaches offense like a glove, Haskins doesn't he's more of a pure pocket passer like Rosen. Given that teams issues, Murray could really help hide them and improve that team. Nothing harder to defend in the NFL than a QB that can throw, run and throw on the run. Rosen is like Brady, a pure pocket passer. He needs a great OL, a very good system and weapons to do well. It all comes down to it you think Murray is a legit QB, if you do it makes total sense. Not sure I'd take that gamble. Yet it makes sense, he's electric. You just better be right. Who knows what's legit, but reports say the Cardinals already have a second round pick from the Chargers on the table. That trade idea was my way of beating that offer, while not losing a pick and frankly I struggle to find good value at pick 32 unless guys drop. In my scenario I'd make it on draft day if someone doesn't drop. If Bill likes Rosen that's all I need. The talent is clearly there, it's the leadership I question, yet late second round pick is a good gamble. Like Rosen is way better than Finley. Is Rosen legit in your mind? I honestly don't know, but it seems weird that he's available. If he were that good then I would think they hire a coach that fits their QB instead of the other way around. If you assume the Patriots do like Rosen, it's worth noting that the Charger's pick is sandwiched between our two 2nd rounders. Do you think the Chargers would get in a bidding war if the Pats offered up the better 2nd rounder? I like your idea of somehow trading out of their current 1st round pick since it's effectively a second round pick because of available talent. How would a trade up into the early 20's work? Anyone worth the jump up? Rosen is probably more talented than anyone else they can get anytime soon. He was a top 10 pick last year. I'm not sure if he's their kind of guy, but he was linked to the Pats last year before the draft if he fell closer to their pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2019 15:16:13 GMT -5
I guess I'm confused, do you mean Murray instead of Haskins? The reason Murray makes sense is he fits the new coaches offense like a glove, Haskins doesn't he's more of a pure pocket passer like Rosen. Given that teams issues, Murray could really help hide them and improve that team. Nothing harder to defend in the NFL than a QB that can throw, run and throw on the run. Rosen is like Brady, a pure pocket passer. He needs a great OL, a very good system and weapons to do well. It all comes down to it you think Murray is a legit QB, if you do it makes total sense. Not sure I'd take that gamble. Yet it makes sense, he's electric. You just better be right. Who knows what's legit, but reports say the Cardinals already have a second round pick from the Chargers on the table. That trade idea was my way of beating that offer, while not losing a pick and frankly I struggle to find good value at pick 32 unless guys drop. In my scenario I'd make it on draft day if someone doesn't drop. If Bill likes Rosen that's all I need. The talent is clearly there, it's the leadership I question, yet late second round pick is a good gamble. Like Rosen is way better than Finley. Is Rosen legit in your mind? I honestly don't know, but it seems weird that he's available. If he were that good then I would think they hire a coach that fits their QB instead of the other way around. If you assume the Patriots do like Rosen, it's worth noting that the Charger's pick is sandwiched between our two 2nd rounders. Do you think the Chargers would get in a bidding war if the Pats offered up the better 2nd rounder? I like your idea of somehow trading out of their current 1st round pick since it's effectively a second round pick because of available talent. How would a trade up into the early 20's work? Anyone worth the jump up? Rosen has more than enough arm talent, is a very smart guy and fits our system. I had questions when we were debating trading up for him. Yet at the cost we are talking he's worth the gamble 100% in my mind. Yea it's weird situation. You almost never see teams change coaches after one year with a rookie QB. That usually buys the coach a few years. Yet like RJP said teams are stupid and this could be more of Murray is Special while Rosen is just really good or that's what they think. I fully expect we'd get more out of him than other teams, it's just what we do. I have no idea on the Chargers. Yet Bill will make the deal if he likes him, yet won't overpay. Example if the Chargers offer their first round pick, that changes things. We just don't have enough information, yet he seems to be in play which is exciting. All depends how far up you go, it won't be cheap. Like a third round pick and maybe more if we're talking early 20's. I like Farrell, I've changed course on Fant even though he can't block well and a few DTs I also like.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2019 15:26:11 GMT -5
The other aspect of trading down is you have fewer guys to choose from, duh.. i know. But you may really want 2 of the many receivers but not the others. So trading down could hurt you. This is all obvious but depth will entice you to trade down if there’s not a guy you really want and can get good value.... all this cap room tells me it’s more likely they trade up in the first or use it to trade for a veteran receiver. The interesting thing is would Bill take a WR in the first? He has never once done that, trading down in the normal sense not the Rosen Idea could get you into the range he likes to take risks on WRs. A bunch of those WRs will come off the board between our first and 2nd pick. Example I really like AJ Brown, yet I'm not fully sold the value matches at 32 for Bill. Trade down and it makes a lot more sense. The great thing I love about this draft is there are a bunch of options in different rounds at WR.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 1, 2019 15:30:35 GMT -5
The other aspect of trading down is you have fewer guys to choose from, duh.. i know. But you may really want 2 of the many receivers but not the others. So trading down could hurt you. This is all obvious but depth will entice you to trade down if there’s not a guy you really want and can get good value.... all this cap room tells me it’s more likely they trade up in the first or use it to trade for a veteran receiver. The interesting thing is would Bill take a WR in the first? He has never once done that, trading down in the normal sense not the Rosen Idea could get you into the range he likes to take risks on WRs. A bunch of those WRs will come off the board between our first and 2nd pick. Example I really like AJ Brown, yet I'm not fully sold the value matches at 32 for Bill. Trade down and it makes a lot more sense. The great thing I love about this draft is there are a bunch of options in different rounds at WR. He hasn’t before but with the way WR salaries are these days he may want that 5th year option on one. One of the things I can say about Bill with a lot of confidence is he’s always adapting and changing so just because he hasn’t done something before doesn’t mean he won’t in the future.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2019 18:55:54 GMT -5
I don't think salary was ever the issue, it's using a first round pick on a position that is so hit and miss. Bill likes taking safe players in round one and WRs taken late in round one might be the most risky pick you can make.
So yea maybe he's almost forced to gamble this year. Still think a trade down, get extra value and then take a WR makes the most sense if you want one really early.
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Post by philarhody on Apr 1, 2019 23:33:27 GMT -5
The interesting thing is would Bill take a WR in the first? He has never once done that, trading down in the normal sense not the Rosen Idea could get you into the range he likes to take risks on WRs. A bunch of those WRs will come off the board between our first and 2nd pick. Example I really like AJ Brown, yet I'm not fully sold the value matches at 32 for Bill. Trade down and it makes a lot more sense. The great thing I love about this draft is there are a bunch of options in different rounds at WR. He hasn’t before but with the way WR salaries are these days he may want that 5th year option on one. One of the things I can say about Bill with a lot of confidence is he’s always adapting and changing so just because he hasn’t done something before doesn’t mean he won’t in the future. This is a good point. Salary is always part of the issue for Belichick.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 2, 2019 8:20:09 GMT -5
Bennett restructured and Cedrick Lang (OL) signed. The latter would likely fall out of the Top 51 given he hasn't played since entering the NFL. Miguel has the current Cap Space at 18.2
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 2, 2019 8:44:57 GMT -5
Not a fan of the descriptions in Scouts' "tiering" and (personally) pay the least attention to the round in those. Not sure I follow why an "outstanding prospect" at the QB position (Lock for example) wouldn't be considered a 1st Rounder (even a lock, pardon the pun). Focusing on the rest of the descriptions, 80+ seem like starter caliber which would be closer to how NE would evaluate (not suggesting that they would give the same ratings to these players but a 3 down player who is a starter would be high on their draft board). Top tier is rare top 5 player in nation at position Second tier is outstanding top 10 at position Third tier is solid top third at position Those rating match up with the Browns, heck didn't they have two less first round players graded? Who knows who the Patriots have, but it's likely less players, yet it could be totally different players. We also know Bill looks at the first round differently than other rounds and trades out if there isn't value. You have to be able to play under that 5th year option or you shouldn't be a first rounder for the Patriots. As for Lock he's the top rated guy in tier two and what 18th overall. That seems about right, yet we all know QBs get over drafted and he likely goes first round. Yet I don't see anything elite or rare with him. He's an 89, with Murray and Haskins at 90.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 2, 2019 8:53:45 GMT -5
He hasn’t before but with the way WR salaries are these days he may want that 5th year option on one. One of the things I can say about Bill with a lot of confidence is he’s always adapting and changing so just because he hasn’t done something before doesn’t mean he won’t in the future. This is a good point. Salary is always part of the issue for Belichick. You'd also need a WR worth being paid 10 plus million for that to make sense there at pick 32.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 2, 2019 9:13:22 GMT -5
Piecing together the information that Caserio shared (should we choose to believe it - I will for now, though I recognize you can't take Coach/GM Speak at face value), I'm not sure this will change how they stack their board. Seems that they just figure out who can start, who can play a role, who can be a reserve, who is developmental. . .
Don't think that would change just bc WRs get more money in FA.
Would guess (and it IS just that) that it could, however, impact their decision to move up and get a WR that they have a 1st round grade on. So the 1st round WR is defined the same way it always has but you might be willing to move up higher (and give up more to do so) to get that guy you have a 1st round grade on.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 2, 2019 9:34:31 GMT -5
This is a good point. Salary is always part of the issue for Belichick. You'd also need a WR worth being paid 10 plus million for that to make sense there at pick 32. Truth but 10m 5 years from now and a one year deal. We’ve also seen the trade value of those guys skyrocket. I’m not saying this is definitely in his thinking just using it as an example of the landscape changing a bit over the past few years and Bill changes. Only point being; just because Bill hasn’t drafted a WR in the first round before doesn’t mean we should rule it out. He does things he’s never done before; he’s not an easy guy to box in. One way or the other.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 2, 2019 10:11:02 GMT -5
For additional draft info, Matt Miller (Bleacher Report) is releasing his Top 400 players for the 2019 Draft. I feel like Matt is getting more traction in the Draft Expert community.
Regardless of what you feel about his rankings/grades, there is a lot of information. Positives/Negatives/Grades/Projected Rd/Potential. There is also a player comp (I tend not to look at those as I feel their usefulness is limited) for each.
Up first, the RBs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 2, 2019 11:43:33 GMT -5
You'd also need a WR worth being paid 10 plus million for that to make sense there at pick 32. Truth but 10m 5 years from now and a one year deal. We’ve also seen the trade value of those guys skyrocket. I’m not saying this is definitely in his thinking just using it as an example of the landscape changing a bit over the past few years and Bill changes. Only point being; just because Bill hasn’t drafted a WR in the first round before doesn’t mean we should rule it out. He does things he’s never done before; he’s not an easy guy to box in. One way or the other. That 10 million is 2018 number, in 5 years it's going to be a lot higher. What are the chances you find that type of WR at pick 32? Who do you like at 32 at WR? Heck who are you willing to draft in the first? Sure he does things differently and you never know 100%. It's just not likely. Like I feel he took Michel because that 5th year on a RB is low and went down, not because it went up. Nevermind RBs are rather safe bets compared to WRs, which is the big key for Bill. As much as I love this WR class, it's strength isn't first round WRs. There just isn't a guy that I look at and hope he drops. Heck some of my draft magazines don't even rate a single WR as a first round lock giving four guys a 1 round\2 round rating. I keep trying to talk myself into AJ Brown I just can't do it. WR in round one, even though it's our biggest need would be the biggest surprise pick Bill could make. It would shock me, so watch him do it. Calling it now Miles Boykins haha.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 2, 2019 12:14:12 GMT -5
For additional draft info, Matt Miller (Bleacher Report) is releasing his Top 400 players for the 2019 Draft. I feel like Matt is getting more traction in the Draft Expert community. Regardless of what you feel about his rankings/grades, there is a lot of information. Positives/Negatives/Grades/Projected Rd/Potential. There is also a player comp (I tend not to look at those as I feel their usefulness is limited) for each. Up first, the RBs. His mock drafts annoy the crap out of me
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